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Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:01 am
by Ircher
In post 2507, zakk wrote:Also yes shotty I accept your offer
Vote: Titus
"Hey, at least she's better than trump"
I'm getting v tired of this game
V annoyed at 4 deaths and no scum flips
What were you expecting? For scum to kill themselves?
The chances of scum lynch Dq is low as is the crosss-kill chance N1. And, KTS was prob. vigged and the scum chance there was also fairly low.
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:04 am
by copper223
In post 2524, Ircher wrote:Shotty's reads on me and Titus do not feel at all genuine.
Shotty literallly tries to find anything to throw dirt or shade at us, yet you find that genuine?
I find the strength of the tunnel genuine. Once you flip, if you are town, how is shotty planning to stay alive to win? Do you think you are worth a trade?
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:06 am
by Ircher
That's a logical fallancy; it's why stuff like bussing works.
As to your Q --> Maybe not the best move, but still one that I could see scum to attempt. At this point, Shotty prob. doesn't want to be accused of backtracking, so that's why Shotty continues to be so focused on tunneling me.
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:14 am
by copper223
In post 2527, Ircher wrote:That's a logical fallancy; it's why stuff like bussing works.
As to your Q --> Maybe not the best move, but still one that I could see scum to attempt. At this point, Shotty prob. doesn't want to be accused of backtracking, so that's why Shotty continues to be so focused on tunneling me.
With your post and now vote history the only reason you are alive if you are town (also as scum but to a lesser degree) is that Titus has been shielding you, a hard tunnel by a townie is not that difficult to imagine.
It's not impossible that shotty is scum if you are town, I am much more certain of Magna.
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:17 am
by Ircher
Fair enough.
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:42 am
by Titus
In post 2520, copper223 wrote:I'll do the opposite where Titus is brazen scum later, I need some hours to break out of the mindset I am in now cause at the moment this world seems so likely I'd just confbias the shit out of every read.
Why not suppose that I am right on shorty+Zakk but Persivul and TBG were townbeards?
Why are your sole universes that I sm currently wrong or scum?
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:44 am
by Titus
Shotty/Zakk/Hood/Nahdia/Egg --- Thoughts here?
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:49 am
by drmyshottyizsik
In post 2524, Ircher wrote: In post 2519, copper223 wrote:What the votes say, assuming Titus is having a bad game and being used as a battering ram to take the heat, by scum:
Anen: town getting pushed by scum.
Cythefly: bad town being spoon-fed by scum and lapping it up, or scum being very brazen under the cover of being a newbie.
Egg: see previous post, likely scum. @Titus why no early scumread on Egg?
Expe: Town not having a fun time.
Ircher: omgus or vote on the biggest wagons is the pattern that emerges here, this is such a terrible pattern you should be ashamed if you are town, and in this world you are.
Liger: town newbie.
Magna: follows Titus on Copper (whitout a vote) under the cover of clearing his PT, but then doesn't have anything to ask in said PT, follows Titus (and PM) on TBG, which is consistent with the initial hypothesis, the votes are both bad and very opportunistic.
Nahdia: Scum with Nos PM and Magna, taking advantage of Titus whom she pockets early with a town-lean. Particularly worrisome are her discarding her early Magna read for no reason (finished distancing) when Titus asked her for further names, her coordination with Nosferatu (push on me, push on Anen, Nos was likely positioning herself to go on Ircher with Nahdia as well with that stats post) and her read switch on Anen (PM also switches and the reason he gives is pretty weak, he liked a lot of Anen's early posting but now he looks weaker).
Nos: see pre-post read.
PMatt: Other than what mentioned with other players, very early town read on both Titus and Ircher (consistent with the scum strategy hypothesized here).
Shaz: new-town doing his own thing.
Shotty: In this world he is more likely duped town than scum, the emphasis on wanting to lynch Ircher/Titus with a vengeance while compromising if the game state requires it makes his reads likely genuine (and crap).
Titus: town by definition in this world.
Zakk: Like shotty his reads in this world are garbage but genuine in the way he is pushing, he also has solo votes on slots that nobody is even looking at and where is the support from his supposed teammates in that or why is he picking fights with lowell and ETL when he already is against Titus & co, more so than Shotty this here is misguided town.
Shotty's reads on me and Titus do not feel at all genuine.
Shotty literallly tries to find anything to throw dirt or shade at us, yet you find that genuine?
At US???? Who is your partner?
VOTE: Ircher
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:50 am
by Titus
In post 2526, copper223 wrote: In post 2524, Ircher wrote:Shotty's reads on me and Titus do not feel at all genuine.
Shotty literallly tries to find anything to throw dirt or shade at us, yet you find that genuine?
I find the strength of the tunnel genuine. Once you flip, if you are town, how is shotty planning to stay alive to win? Do you think you are worth a trade?
I have faked tunnels for years. See Newbie 1388.
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:51 am
by Nahdia
VOTE: copper
i really really want this dead like really super bad guys
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:52 am
by Nahdia
godddd i wish i was a gladiator
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:53 am
by Titus
In post 2532, drmyshottyizsik wrote: In post 2524, Ircher wrote: In post 2519, copper223 wrote:What the votes say, assuming Titus is having a bad game and being used as a battering ram to take the heat, by scum:
Anen: town getting pushed by scum.
Cythefly: bad town being spoon-fed by scum and lapping it up, or scum being very brazen under the cover of being a newbie.
Egg: see previous post, likely scum. @Titus why no early scumread on Egg?
Expe: Town not having a fun time.
Ircher: omgus or vote on the biggest wagons is the pattern that emerges here, this is such a terrible pattern you should be ashamed if you are town, and in this world you are.
Liger: town newbie.
Magna: follows Titus on Copper (whitout a vote) under the cover of clearing his PT, but then doesn't have anything to ask in said PT, follows Titus (and PM) on TBG, which is consistent with the initial hypothesis, the votes are both bad and very opportunistic.
Nahdia: Scum with Nos PM and Magna, taking advantage of Titus whom she pockets early with a town-lean. Particularly worrisome are her discarding her early Magna read for no reason (finished distancing) when Titus asked her for further names, her coordination with Nosferatu (push on me, push on Anen, Nos was likely positioning herself to go on Ircher with Nahdia as well with that stats post) and her read switch on Anen (PM also switches and the reason he gives is pretty weak, he liked a lot of Anen's early posting but now he looks weaker).
Nos: see pre-post read.
PMatt: Other than what mentioned with other players, very early town read on both Titus and Ircher (consistent with the scum strategy hypothesized here).
Shaz: new-town doing his own thing.
Shotty: In this world he is more likely duped town than scum, the emphasis on wanting to lynch Ircher/Titus with a vengeance while compromising if the game state requires it makes his reads likely genuine (and crap).
Titus: town by definition in this world.
Zakk: Like shotty his reads in this world are garbage but genuine in the way he is pushing, he also has solo votes on slots that nobody is even looking at and where is the support from his supposed teammates in that or why is he picking fights with lowell and ETL when he already is against Titus & co, more so than Shotty this here is misguided town.
Shotty's reads on me and Titus do not feel at all genuine.
Shotty literallly tries to find anything to throw dirt or shade at us, yet you find that genuine?
At US???? Who is your partner?
VOTE: Ircher
Yeah, see
this is fake
. Us obviously in context says that Snotty is desperately throwing whatever he can at Ircher and me.
Shorty tries to pidegonhole the word us to have some excuse why he's not voting the major wagon...Zakk.
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:54 am
by drmyshottyizsik
My point is why is he taking the time to defend you as well? He is trying to protect you.
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:55 am
by Titus
In post 2534, Nahdia wrote:VOTE: copper
i really really want this dead like really super bad guys
And I want you to comment on the major wagons. Looks like neither of us are getting what we want. Your refusal to even comment on Zakk and Shotty is terrible.
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:56 am
by Titus
We're townreads of each other. That's natural. Now, why are you trying to divert from Zakk instead of voting him if you think he's scum?
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 5:00 am
by copper223
I did not start by assuming you were wrong on all your reads, and I do think you are right about 1 point, that being there is scum in the hood, rather when reviewing your other scum reads I arrived at different conclusions, in order for you to be "the battering ram" scum is using your incorrect reads on Persi/TBG and posts where people I think are scum are interacting with you is what is important.
I do not think Zakk is scum because he exhibits the same tells in his vote pattern as shotty and you, it's going to be very hard for him to stay alive after you flip and if he is scum he is doing so knowing your alignment which takes a ballsy player, add to that he also had unique pushes that nobody cared about or seemed to want to follow up which makes me think he is going solo this game.
His reads (like yours) also make sense if you assume certain players have a given alignment and you add some OMGUS bias, which makes them more likely organic rather than planned.
Shotty I am less certain about, because he seems (over-)confident enough to try and pull a hard tunnel and disavowal the day after, but I still think it's less likely than the players I've mentioned as scum.
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 5:01 am
by drmyshottyizsik
In post 2539, Titus wrote:
We're townreads of each other. That's natural. Now, why are you trying to divert from Zakk instead of voting him if you think he's scum?
Look we are going in circles here. I think multiple people are scum, if every time I vote one of you, you say well if you think they are scum vote them, and I switch votes we will get no where.
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 5:04 am
by Lowell
okay, nahdia, tell me about copper.
I've had him as a townread for awhile and haven't really spent much time thinking about it. Now you have me thinking about it, and for some reason 2540 looks suspicious to me. It's equivocal and wordy, a combination that worries me.
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 5:05 am
by Titus
@Copper, Ballsy is a personality tell. Good players turn ballsy on and off when needed.
Reassess please with that knowledge.
What do you think of shotty and Zakk tunneling each other while avoiding voting as major wagons?
P.S. The only way I am buying Nahdia group scum currently is if Shaziro is also groupscum and there's about only a 2% chance Shaziro acts like e has as scum.
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 5:07 am
by copper223
@Nahdia
Where did your scum read of Magna go scum?
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 5:10 am
by copper223
In post 2543, Titus wrote:@Copper, Ballsy is a personality tell. Good players turn ballsy on and off when needed.
Reassess please with that knowledge.
What do you think of shotty and Zakk tunneling each other while avoiding voting as major wagons?
P.S. The only way I am buying Nahdia group scum currently is if Shaziro is also groupscum and there's about only a 2% chance Shaziro acts like e has as scum.
I made multiple points about Zakk, you focused on one you didn't like which still makes sense to me, I have a few other that are more gut based on what and when he posted, so no.
Why is Shaz needed for Nahdia to be scum?
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 5:11 am
by Titus
In post 2541, drmyshottyizsik wrote: In post 2539, Titus wrote:
We're townreads of each other. That's natural. Now, why are you trying to divert from Zakk instead of voting him if you think he's scum?
Look we are going in circles here. I think multiple people are scum, if every time I vote one of you, you say well if you think they are scum vote them, and I switch votes we will get no where.
This isn't circles. You bailed on the one most likely to get lynched. You feel Zakk/Ircher/me, you should vote the largest wagon of the three. That's Zakk.
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 5:13 am
by Titus
In post 2545, copper223 wrote: In post 2543, Titus wrote:@Copper, Ballsy is a personality tell. Good players turn ballsy on and off when needed.
Reassess please with that knowledge.
What do you think of shotty and Zakk tunneling each other while avoiding voting as major wagons?
P.S. The only way I am buying Nahdia group scum currently is if Shaziro is also groupscum and there's about only a 2% chance Shaziro acts like e has as scum.
I made multiple points about Zakk, you focused on one you didn't like which still makes sense to me, I have a few other that are more gut based on what and when he posted, so no.
Why is Shaz needed for Nahdia to be scum?
~reasons~ on the last
I am going to focus on where we disagree and what I feel is an incorrect basis for your reads.
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 5:21 am
by Nahdia
he's in a hood with you and you're scummier so.
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2016 5:31 am
by copper223
Try again because after your intro where you mention both Magna and PM as scum (very "insightful" of you) and then make sure to add that magna always looks scummy to you (so he could be a false positive) you never touch that read again, Liger's revelation comes quite a bit later.