Mafiascum.net

Hmm, does scum!skitt ever claim vig here and then try to explain a missing NK every night until she gets lynched? I feel like the answer is probably not and also I kind of doubt scum let vig!skitt live multiple nights due to the strength of her reads and that even as SK she would have to turn on them I think tonight if she wanted to win

In post 2516, lilith2013 wrote:there’s a 50% chance of there being an SK.... vs like a 5% chance of a vig. like in most universes we do have an SK?

I don't get where you got those %ages, but I'd say the Vig has a way higher probability than 5%. Just ONE rolle of a K (10% each roll * 7 rolls = 70%, then divided by 2 because it's a 50-50 Vig/Vengeful = 35%. Assuming one K was rolled (10%) another K is 60% (60% total) but in that case we would be guaranteed BOTH Vig AND Vengful, but I'm not going to take this into account. Just the first part tells me we have a 35% chance of having a Vig in play).

Inb4 skitter retracts and claims VT at like 5 days to deadline (love u turkey)

menaaaaaaaa don't make me start scumreading youuuu

okay according to my math there’s approximately a 3.3% chance of there being a vig in this setup so clearly i went wrong somewhere

welp clearly i’ve been thinking about this setup completely wrong

Okay, so taking it as given that skitter is a vig, that means that we’re in a setup with at least 2 tpr right? So we’re looking for setups which are TTTTT or lower for scum power

yeah as soon as i rolled vig i was p sure i'd be getting things like that no matter what i did so i just kinda wanted to substantiate the role existing and try to minimize collateral damage

In post 2528, Datisi wrote:menaaaaaaaa don't make me start scumreading youuuu

Huh

What?

In post 2522, Menalque wrote:That’s a bold claim for skitt to be making here if she’s SK, not that it makes it impossible

"Bold" is not the word I would use. I prefer "stupid".

no, it's theoretically possible there's 6T and 1K

pedit: @mena's post about setup

scum's nk went missing tho

In post 2533, Menalque wrote:

In post 2528, Datisi wrote:menaaaaaaaa don't make me start scumreading youuuu

Huh

What?

i'm really not vibin with 2522 and 2525

pedit: right that is a thing that maybe happened

well it either went missing or they also shot pb, those are the only two options

the only other scenario is they hit a bp sk but there's only one kill and i'm claiming it so that's not that likely either

In post 2535, Datisi wrote:no, it's theoretically possible there's 6T and 1K

pedit: @mena's post about setup

Okay but my point is that assuming skitt is being honest for now, we’re moving very close to a situation where scum are unlikely to have a bus driver

Also what did you mean about making you scumread me?

y no bus driver?

In post 2537, Datisi wrote:

In post 2533, Menalque wrote:

In post 2528, Datisi wrote:menaaaaaaaa don't make me start scumreading youuuu

Huh

What?

i'm really not vibin with 2522 and 2525

pedit: right that is a thing that maybe happened

In what sense?

yeah, thati's why i said it's *theoretically* possible

maybe all of vig groupscum and sk shot pb /s

pedit: why are we moving close to a situation where scum is unlikely to have a bus driver?

ppedit: idk they sound like those convoluted "hmm i wonder if this is happening" posts that scum!mena makes

In post 2540, skitter30 wrote:y no bus driver?

Because at 3 TPR it switches to a JOAT and doesn’t change back until you get to like 5 TPRs in the game

i mean we don't know if those other prs dont' exist yet, we wouldn't exactly see the outcome of those actions

Like 4 Ts or 3Ts are the most likely outcomes, yes? I’m pretty sure bingle/ddl ran the math on that in C9++

So if we’ve ruled out that we’re in 7 or 6 Ts and we know that 0 or 1 Ts are unlikely, it means that unless we’re in 2 or 5 there’s no bus driver

In post 2544, skitter30 wrote:i mean we don't know if those other prs dont' exist yet, we wouldn't exactly see the outcome of those actions

Unless we’re in a 5T scenario I think it’s unlikely we have a bus driver

ok but we dont' know that yet so i don't want to rule out those things yet

i know i'm a pr
there's likely a doc/commuter/etc

so two PR's, and TTTTT or fewer, and that's all i'm comfortable assuming just yet

and i need people to help me optimize who to vig except i'll probably only listen to the people i townread

In post 2542, Datisi wrote:idk they sound like those convoluted "hmm i wonder if this is happening" posts that scum!mena makes

Well err, they’re not? They’re me trying to work through the new information that we supposedly have a town vig and whether I think skitt would claim that as SK or as groupscum at this point in the game