In post 2523, Menalque wrote:Okay, like, what are your reads can be a place to start then? What do you make of lili? What do you think of dunn at EoD yesterday?
My townreads are in some order skitter, dave, Menalque, lilith, maybe Infinity, maybe Best Birb.
I've basically given up on reading lilith on play, at least in the early game when things don't really matter that much. But the mechanics suggest that she's town. For one, a no-kill is at least three times more likely if the JK is town, and that's not even factoring in the way that she used the role and how she chose to reveal it.
I feel like Dunn is mostly just being boring. I don't know if boring-Dunn is more likely to be town-Dunn or scum-Dunn, in my experience he's capable of playing both boring and interesting as both alignments. The hammer was pretty garbage but, I think, not inconsistent with how Dunn plays as town.
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:26 am
by the worst
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:24 am
by skitter30
In post 2516, Menalque wrote:lili
Infinity
Best Bird, hoopla
NM
Dave
Skitt, peta, S_S, dunn
Oh, and I voted lili bc I wanted to see if scum would hop on the CW to dunn or not
I dont follow how this transition happened from, say, last night
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:49 am
by Menalque
Tbf infinity maybe shouldn’t be so high, and the general middle sections are all in flux
What are you not getting about it? I think lili being locktown really changes the face of the game
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:51 am
by Menalque
And given lili being locktown, I think your play around her looks incredibly like scum angling to misguillo a PR
esp when added to my inquietudes re: your play early yesterday around my slot
And that there is still a reasonable chance that the N1 kill could have been on me, in which case I think you’re arguably the most likely person to make that kill given my D1 reads
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:53 am
by Menalque
Also, uh, when *you* are a UTR and you’re not dead by D3 I think that’s justification in itself to be suspicious
It’s not like you’ve been under threat of being the guillotine in a serious way at any point this game
And yet scum are happy to leave you alive? Mmmm
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:58 am
by skitter30
In post 2530, Menalque wrote:And given lili being locktown, I think your play around her looks incredibly like scum angling to misguillo a PR
esp when added to my inquietudes re: your play early yesterday around my slot
And that there is still a reasonable chance that the N1 kill could have been on me, in which case I think you’re arguably the most likely person to make that kill given my D1 reads
Ok but i'm literally not in a place where i can view the game as lilith locktown rn. It is possible i am unreasonably tunneled but i just dont see it
And idk if i kill you as scum n1 tbh
I ger why you think i would be most likely to make that kill, but a) it's not a given you were the nk b) from my pov i know it's a lot less likely fo scum!me to have made that kill than you think it is
I have some ~thoughts~ also that i wanna say eventually that is like relevant but gonna wait a bit probably
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:00 am
by skitter30
In post 2531, Menalque wrote:Also, uh, when *you* are a UTR and you’re not dead by D3 I think that’s justification in itself to be suspicious
It’s not like you’ve been under threat of being the guillotine in a serious way at any point this game
And yet scum are happy to leave you alive? Mmmm
I mean obviously lilith's role/alignment has a lot to do with it - i'm a lot more likely to be docced/jk'd than uncrowned is
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:00 am
by skitter30
Also i think ss is town so i dont like that much either
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:43 am
by Hoopla
if dunn is scum, i'm starting to think skitter is looking like a reasonable partner given her pushes on lilith today.
i share menalque's paranoia over why she's still alive, but the explanation of scum being afraid to NK lilith (an outed JK) applies to skitter if skitter was scum's N1 kill and the doc saved her.
the doc's N1 save or the outed JK would both be good doc choices N2, so perhaps scum were afraid to lose another NK on what would essentially be a coinflip.
regardless, this line of logic at least *somewhat* quells the "why-is-skitter-still-alive" thoughts, but it does make a big assumption (she was the N1 save), whereas this logic for lilith makes a smaller assumption (being an outed JK is much likelier to attract doc attention).
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:46 am
by Infinity 324
I don't
really
have the energy to devote to this game right now but I'm gonna quickly give reasons for my reads earlier
JV/n_m- as I said before, really think their tunnel is scum indicative and when they've been here, they've mostly just been pushing peta and stuff that's been NAI. Their push on mena at the start of d2 felt unnecessary and fabricated
dunn- Pretty much just PoE. I could see his posts coming from town, but he was focusing on odd things (hoopla for questioning him about his early-d1 skitter vote) and insisting that mena be limmed after kinda obvtowning
lilith- One of the scummiest by play, and I really want to trust skitter's read here. I should probably give weight to the fact that taking JK is a big sacrifice as scum and that it's unlikely scum would claim JK at the start of d2 (to try to get mena limmed?) so I'm not sure on this
skitter- She's been pretty obvtown honestly, she's been really transparent and the interaction with mena during d2 felt really T/T to me. I think she could be alive cause of a doc but we'll have to find out.
mena- Only thing that's making me question this TR is that he was jailed n1, but I think doc is more likely. The questioning of the skitter townread was very towny and it's difficult to come up with such a genuine-looking burst of solving as scum in response to a guilty.
s_s- He's been questioning along lines that make sense as town his timing has been good. Not super sure on this one, haven't played with scum!s_s but my gut says town.
peta- I liked his tone for most of d1 but the doubt on the tgp wagon at the end pinged me for some reason. I also feel iffy about him switching to a jackson TR.
hoopla- Don't really know how to read her but her actions have lined up with her mechanical analysis which is good. Gut says town.
bird- Was sheeping skitter on this read but now she's not as sure. I liked his tone d1 but need to look into this again.
dave- I liked his tone and lack of concern with pressure, but it's not a super solid read.
townread but if i'm being honest "calm the fuck down i'm just trying to play the game" when i was arguing with them felt a townie sort of indignance even if i had issues with what they were actually doing
neighbouriser is a highly prob-town pick. narrowing down who that player could be is anti-town.
especially if scum have the role-cop. they could already have a significant chunk of the town power figured out. they don't need extra hints.
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:59 pm
by skitter30
i feel like it's due diligence to confirm the neighborizer exists
(i doubt dunn is lying, but still)
i'm not asking who the neighborizer is, i'm asking *if someone else* got neighborized
i'm not super worried about the rolecop tbh, it's a suboptimal pick for scum in the way that choosing informed is
it's like super suboptimal if they already have informed
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:00 pm
by skitter30
any reasonably competant scum team should be able to sort out just about where most of the pr's are already with the claims and flips we've had + where they are in the draft
they won't have the whole picture, but they'll have been able to narrow it down already and i'm not super into hiding information just cuz
skitter30 - 1swatcher
Ausuka - vt, failed to get vig
brassherald - ??? - gut says cop maybe - also townreads me
Enigma - knows 100% that ap was lying - doc, has to be. also townreads me so i don't want to murderize them yet
BuJaber - ???
Sando - ???
ceejayvinoya - vt, failed to get vengeful
ofrhz - ??? - townreads me
Night 3 Vigilante OR Vengeful - somewhere in the playerlist - probably vulcan?
1-Shot Vigilante OR 1-Shot PGO (active) - ap, dead
Cop OR 1-Shot Redirector - unknown, gut says oka or cardi maybe
1-Shot Commuter OR 1-Shot Watcher - me
Doctor OR Roleblocker - enigma; i don't see any other roles that could know 100% ap was lying without visiting him
Universal Backup OR Role Cop - unknown
Neighborizer OR Fruit Vendor - sky
Jailkeeper OR Tracker - ruru
so oka, vulcan, cardi, enigma, bujaber, sando, ofrhz have max 4 prs, of which i suspect enigma has doc and vulcan has vengeful/n3 vig
which means: cardi, oka, bujaber, sando, ofrhz have max 2prs, can only be: cop/1sredirector, and universal backup/role cop
ofrhz/sando/bujaber prob vt tbh
oka i guess i murderize? either oka or ausuka. i think i have to pretend to use my shot tonight on sky but idk if enigma will have visted her so .... also he's a doc. i don't want to work around him tho
: (the ones crossed out are the ones we know are in play)
Night 2 Vigilante OR Vengeful
- wooper, n2 vig
Perfectionist Vigilante OR 1-shot PGO
- flub, pgo
Sane Cop OR 2-shot Redirector
~ rb, cop
Conditional-Commuter OR 1-shot Watcher
~ unknown
Doctor OR Roleblocker
- unknown, can't be flub
Universal Backup w/ 1-shot override OR Role Cop
~ unknown - aaron
Neighborizer OR Gunsmith
~ me
Jailkeeper OR Tracker
~ you
1-shot Governor OR 5-ability JOAT
doc/rb has to be in play since ss didn't die n2
players
:
Flubbernugget ~ 1s pgo
rb ~ sane cop, dead
Sirfetchd ~ jk
Something_Smart ~ powered, unknown
AaronFrost ~ backup cop
Xayah ~ vt, dead
skitter30 ~ neighborizer
Kerset
PMysterious
wooper ~ n2 vig
Sujimichi
Luca Blight ~ vt
nomnomnom ~ dead
Billy Pilgrim ~ goon, dead
it's really not that hard to get a fairly reasonable sense of the pr spread with like two claims and a flip or two + knowing where the scumz are
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:35 pm
by Hoopla
In post 2539, skitter30 wrote:i feel like it's due diligence to confirm the neighborizer exists
(i doubt dunn is lying, but still)
i'm not asking who the neighborizer is, i'm asking *if someone else* got neighborized
i'm not super worried about the rolecop tbh, it's a suboptimal pick for scum in the way that choosing informed is
it's like super suboptimal if they already have informed
there's no need to clarify if dunn is lying, as that is never a lie. you are narrowing down the pool by one slot, OR two if you're town since you've now softclaimed not-neighbouriser. it only helps scum, and i'm trying to decipher whether that is suspicious or just anti-town on your part.
i guess in your follow up posts you simply don't seem so concerned about leaking info, so probably just anti-town.
also, i think role cop is a reasonable choice for scum. if they're not going to go for vigs, and if lilith is town
and
there is a town doc out there, what has scum actually bid on? role cop seems logical.
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:46 pm
by skitter30
rolecop is a really silly role for scum to take with informed + the knowledge inherent in knowing what scum picked and where they are on the draft
and stuff, i guess
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:52 pm
by Hoopla
In post 2543, skitter30 wrote:rolecop is a really silly role for scum to take with informed + the knowledge inherent in knowing what scum picked and where they are on the draft
and stuff, i guess
if you were scum, what would you pick in your draft position?
for the sake of this exercise, assume the scumteam is you, dunnstral, JV/N_M.
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:53 pm
by Hoopla
purely hypothetical, of course.
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:57 pm
by skitter30
would try to get the doc/rb slot for either me or dunn (functionally ti doesn't matter), so it would dependon which of us thinks we would be more likely to be able to utilize it properly
and the other would be the 1s vig/pgo
thinking about it more probably doc/rb for me and 1s vig/pgo for dunn cuz i think he can explain away a 'bad' shot better than i can
jk tends to go first, so i wouldn't try for it
jv's slot is probably a wash so i'd let it be kinda up to them, if they want to go for somethinig they think is fun and might not get i'd be fine with that
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:58 pm
by skitter30
why did you include jv/nm's slot
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:59 pm
by skitter30
(tbf historically i tend ot make dumb picks as scum in this setup, and then get burned cuz it's not multitasking, have to claim vt, etc)