Mini Normal 2258 | Bunnies [Postgame]

[Aristeia]

Do you really think scum hammer here?
What was the risk here?

I talk to skitter and figure out she's town?

Like there's no town motivation to slam a hammer on a day that's less than 24h old and people haven't even gotten to talk to each other

but you have literally 0 patience for this game despite playing for less than 48 hours

[Aristeia]

It’s a stall at best if IV is scum.

If IV is scum why wouldn't he stall when it looks like he is about to die to elim?

[House]

Ari is town.

That's a hill I'll die on, Math.

[Aristeia]

In other words IV is a day five problem if that.

on Day 5 there will be 4 players left alive (3 if the vig shoots again)

We need to hit a scum to get to day 5 and even then can we really trust an IV result at that point?

[Aristeia]

in fact

with a Weak Modifier Role and a Vigilante in the game

How likely is there even to be a day 5?

how does even night gunsmith make sense when games usually don't get to day 5?

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE: andres

I think House - Math - I are all building off each other's impulsivity in a negative way for the gamestate, I want to back off a little and see what the other players come up with.

[MathBlade]

So then we’d be looking at a 6 tomorrow and 4 alive next day
(Assuming SS doesn’t fire for simplicity)

So then they’re banking on IV’s buddy not being eliminated
Else it’s IV v 3 townies
One is in innoed

No elim
IV v 2 townies who immediately ask why not shot.

It’s a losing proposition for scum.

[MathBlade]

UNVOTE: andres

I think House - Math - I are all building off each other's impulsivity in a negative way for the gamestate, I want to back off a little and see what the other players come up with.

Please contribute.

Do you at least agree with the facts above and the colored wagon?

[Frogsterking]

In other words IV is a day five problem if that.

on Day 5 there will be 4 players left alive (3 if the vig shoots again)

We need to hit a scum to get to day 5 and even then can we really trust an IV result at that point?

in fact

with a Weak Modifier Role and a Vigilante in the game

How likely is there even to be a day 5?

how does even night gunsmith make sense when games usually don't get to day 5?

I have 3 thoughts:

1) it does make sense for scum!IV to claim pr in that situation where they've already been put to e-1, what do they have to lose?
2) I haven't played enough Normals to know about what is expected from even or odd night prs, or even how many days the game is expected to go
3) IV could simply have read the mech spec we already posted to realize gunsmith is a role we might believe

[Aristeia]

It’s a losing proposition for scum.

if IV is mafia here, his immediate priority is to not be eliminated *now* so why would he care about whether the claim can endgame or not?

if we decide to let IV-Scum get to Night 4, then all his partner has to do is survive D3/D4 and the scum win the game.

[Aristeia]

Gunsmith is a role that makes sense to be on the scum team if there is a Town Backup Vigilante.

This is why I want to mass claim to figure out how much power is still unclaimed in the setup

We don't actually have a downside to mass-claiming since we very likely don't have protectives and the vig probably gets shot tonight.

[House]

Weak + Vig + Backup Vig + Gunsmith is a lot of town power.

Just saying.

[Frogsterking]

Alright I'm VT

[Aristeia]

I am VT

[MathBlade]

Weak + Vig + Backup Vig + Gunsmith is a lot of town power.

Just saying.

It is but it makes sense for MS setups
They tend to be townsided.

[Aristeia]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=84455

this is a gypyx setup:


Combined Mailman Vanilla Cop
Role Watcher Neighbor
Ascetic Indecisive Doctor Neighbor
1-Shot Bulletproof Vengeful
Novice Three Shot Vigilante

vs

Odd Night Complex Traffic Analyst
Informed
Goon

[MathBlade]

Gunsmith is a role that makes sense to be on the scum team if there is a Town Backup Vigilante.

This is why I want to mass claim to figure out how much power is still unclaimed in the setup

We don't actually have a downside to mass-claiming since we very likely don't have protectives and the vig probably gets shot tonight.

This is also to be fair pretty scummy as if IV is scum there’s likely another PR out there

[House]

Gunsmith is a role that makes sense to be on the scum team if there is a Town Backup Vigilante.

This is why I want to mass claim to figure out how much power is still unclaimed in the setup

We don't actually have a downside to mass-claiming since we very likely don't have protectives and the vig probably gets shot tonight.

This is also to be fair pretty scummy as if IV is scum there’s likely another PR out there

And if there's another PR out there, iv is likely to be scum.

Check your confbias.

[MathBlade]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=84455

this is a gypyx setup:


Combined Mailman Vanilla Cop
Role Watcher Neighbor
Ascetic Indecisive Doctor Neighbor
1-Shot Bulletproof Vengeful
Novice Three Shot Vigilante

vs

Odd Night Complex Traffic Analyst
Informed
Goon

So yeah definitely this power level fits

Backup Vig << I am defacto inno from that as Vig can’t be given to scum (normal)
Vig << inno can’t be given to scum
Weak FV << One shot and dies so scum don’t have to hunt for it
Even night gunsmith
^^ these combine in power the same as mailman cop

So yeah definitely more than likely all town

[Aristeia]

Gunsmith is a role that makes sense to be on the scum team if there is a Town Backup Vigilante.

This is why I want to mass claim to figure out how much power is still unclaimed in the setup

We don't actually have a downside to mass-claiming since we very likely don't have protectives and the vig probably gets shot tonight.

This is also to be fair pretty scummy as if IV is scum there’s likely another PR out there

Wouldn't it make sense to get the other PR to out and get IV-scum today if that's the case?

[MathBlade]

Gunsmith is a role that makes sense to be on the scum team if there is a Town Backup Vigilante.

This is why I want to mass claim to figure out how much power is still unclaimed in the setup

We don't actually have a downside to mass-claiming since we very likely don't have protectives and the vig probably gets shot tonight.

This is also to be fair pretty scummy as if IV is scum there’s likely another PR out there

Wouldn't it make sense to get the other PR to out and get IV-scum today if that's the case?

I don’t think IV is scum but I would trust that PR if it exists to or block IV or keep their power secret.
We have a likely death in SS because claimed vig.

[MathBlade]

If IV is scum we are likely missing an invest or a protective.

So I would rather keep those under wraps

[House]

I'd rather out scum, but that's, y'know, me.

[Aristeia]

Gunsmith is a role that makes sense to be on the scum team if there is a Town Backup Vigilante.

This is why I want to mass claim to figure out how much power is still unclaimed in the setup

We don't actually have a downside to mass-claiming since we very likely don't have protectives and the vig probably gets shot tonight.

This is also to be fair pretty scummy as if IV is scum there’s likely another PR out there

Wouldn't it make sense to get the other PR to out and get IV-scum today if that's the case?

I don’t think IV is scum but I would trust that PR if it exists to or block IV or keep their power secret.
We have a likely death in SS because claimed vig.

So if IV is scum and there is another TPR hidden, we elim a town player today, we wake up tommorrow with SS dead maybe one other dead, and the TPR does what? out and try to push IV then?

Your thought process is nonsensical.

[MathBlade]

Gunsmith is a role that makes sense to be on the scum team if there is a Town Backup Vigilante.

This is why I want to mass claim to figure out how much power is still unclaimed in the setup

We don't actually have a downside to mass-claiming since we very likely don't have protectives and the vig probably gets shot tonight.

This is also to be fair pretty scummy as if IV is scum there’s likely another PR out there

Wouldn't it make sense to get the other PR to out and get IV-scum today if that's the case?

I don’t think IV is scum but I would trust that PR if it exists to or block IV or keep their power secret.
We have a likely death in SS because claimed vig.

So if IV is scum and there is another TPR hidden, we elim a town player today, we wake up tommorrow with SS dead maybe one other dead, and the TPR does what? out and try to push IV then?

Your thought process is nonsensical.

They out and get a possible deep wolf.

Or we could elim scum today then they get the other

You put in a lot of assumptions.