Mafiascum.net

Perhaps I'm not grasping the fundamentals of the game but from what I can see scum have an interest in a) not allowing anyone to be tacitly or explicitly be considered town, b) mislynching tonwies, c) discrediting players by making other players suspicious of them.

During day 1 I find most players end up getting numerous votes sent their way, sometimes people get wagon-ed, sometimes they just get questioned. Whatever it is they usually get some heat, a good scum team usually ensures this happens to achieve a, b and c. When that doesn't happen at all for two days it suggests to me one of three explanations: 1) The scum team is bad, 2) They do not want to do a, b or c regarding this player, 3) It is too risky for them to do a, b or c. I do not think 1 or 3 apply; whilst scum have suffered heavy losses it has largely been out of their control, and as Kuribo has already said TML is "mislynch fodder", an easy lynch, and clearly someone who doesn't put up much of a fight (see the start of today). 2 seems to be the most likely explanation, that makes me initially suspicious though not enough to push for a lynch mind you; there needs to be more.




Regardless of what Kuribo says I am a firm believer that looking at the wagon composition of previous days we can see patterns in the votes of players, I can accept that some of you might disagree and that's fine but it is also something I commonly do and far from a Nostredeus scum-tell.

Yesterday had a series of failed wagons and a successful one, what we can do with these wagons is highlight on them we can eliminate through process of elimination certain players who are regarded as, confirmed as, or flipped town :

- , , The Mini-Librarian, , camn, Nostredeus

- The Mini-Librarian, Cerulean, , , Benmage, camn

- Channeldelibird, , , , Benmage, camn,

- Deasvail, , , JasonT1981, The-Mini Librarian, Nostredeus, ChannelDeliBird, , camn


We can then make inferences about the composition of those wagons (note: this is explicitly what camn tried to do, except I'll actually go ahead and make my conclusions related to the data), we can do so in two ways: 1) I could make a subjective call about who I consider to be town and subjectively eliminate them also, or 2) we can see if there are any objective trends across the wagons themselves.


First, and I don't intend on detailing why here since the post will be long enough but I have relevant town reads on these people: Myself, CDB, Deasvail, Benmage, Jason, and Cerulean.

This leads me to the subjective conclusion, and yes I do mean subjective you should all do your own subjective analysis based on your own town reads, that:
The CDB wagon potentially has scum in TML/camn.
The Kise wagon potentially has scum in TML/camn.
The BT wagon potentially has scum in camn.
The SAD wagon potentially has scum in TML/camn.

I say potentially because they might just have been in the wrong place at the wrong time or my 'town reads' could be wrong, regardless process of elimination by use of my town reads gets ME, subjectively, to the conclusion that TML and/or camn is scum.

There is an interesting point to note here: The only wagon from yesterday which TML was not on is the BT wagon, if I had a scum read on BT this would simply make me want TML dead more.



Instead of looking at subjective analysis we can also consider objective trends in behavior. Yesterday's wagons have a number of members, and EVEN IF, we assume all of my subjective town reads are null there is still a pattern of behavior from TML/camn. The behavior I mean here, to be clear, is that they jump to every available wagon and TML in particular does not do any real work to build a case on the wagons he is on. They are the only two people who can be found on every single wagon; there are of course multiple possible explanations for this. 1) They could just be properly unlucky and in the wrong place at the wrong time every time, 2) One of them could be scum and the other is just unfortunate to be on similar wagons, 3) They could both be scum. I'm totally happy to say 1 might be true, or even that 2 might be true but given these patterns of behavior and the other cases on TML I'm very much happy to see Equinox die.




Look, I can't be sure of every read I have, it's the nature of the game, but when I combine the above stuff with the stuff I am reading from plessie in particular I feel much more confident that this lynch isn't a total bust. If it does end up being a total bust however then fine, whatever, I'll sheep the crap out of the QT'ers and re-evaluate all of my reads, until then though Equinox is the right lynch. I'm sure I've said other things that I'd like to clarify for you all but I honestly did only have an hour.