In post 2546, volxen wrote:Obviously if Vedith and Chennisden are both scum together, then yes, their plan A for today should be to try and get Shoshin nightkilled. If that fails, then plan B is for one to bus the other, in hopes that whichever one that survives gets townlocked.
I think that there is a very small chance that Vedith and Chennisden are both scum together. But here is how I am looking at that:
1) I know that I am town.
2) I have Alonzo as locktown.
3) I don't believe the scumteam is Auro/Vedith/Chennisden because of your fundamental opposition to bussing.
4) I don't believe the scumteam is DoubtingThomas/Vedith/Chennisden because of DT's fundamental opposition to bussing.
5) I don't believe the scumteam is Shoshin/Vedith/Chennisden because I don't believe that all three nominees are scum.
6) Therefore, the only way that I see Vedith and Chennisden both being scum together is if the scumteam is exactly Scumreading/Vedith/Chennisden.
I think it's highly likely that there is one scum nominee and two town nominees.
OK then - I think I misread your post. I agree with this logic.
Which one do you think is scum out of the nominees? I'm very confident on Shoshin town; have gotten town vibes from Vedith from the last few pages especially, and Chennisden's posts haven't given me any reason to townread the slot.
In post 2546, volxen wrote:Obviously if Vedith and Chennisden are both scum together, then yes, their plan A for today should be to try and get Shoshin nightkilled. If that fails, then plan B is for one to bus the other, in hopes that whichever one that survives gets townlocked.
I think that there is a very small chance that Vedith and Chennisden are both scum together. But here is how I am looking at that:
1) I know that I am town.
2) I have Alonzo as locktown.
3) I don't believe the scumteam is Auro/Vedith/Chennisden because of your fundamental opposition to bussing.
4) I don't believe the scumteam is DoubtingThomas/Vedith/Chennisden because of DT's fundamental opposition to bussing.
5) I don't believe the scumteam is Shoshin/Vedith/Chennisden because I don't believe that all three nominees are scum.
6) Therefore, the only way that I see Vedith and Chennisden both being scum together is if the scumteam is exactly Scumreading/Vedith/Chennisden.
I think it's highly likely that there is one scum nominee and two town nominees.
OK then - I think I misread your post. I agree with this logic.
Which one do you think is scum out of the nominees? I'm very confident on Shoshin town; have gotten town vibes from Vedith from the last few pages especially, and Chennisden's posts haven't given me any reason to townread the slot.
Why aren't you voting yet?
I don't think I'm going to be confident on anything until I've reread through the entire game, as I still have a lot of uncertainty at the moment. But off-hand, some concerns regarding Shoshin are:
1) RadiantCowbells repeatedly talked about scum!Shoshin in this game, and he got early scum vibes from her in this game. He talked about scum!Shoshin all throughout day one. He went back-and-forth on Shoshin a lot, but he never had her as locktown. He did the same thing in BOP Mafia (link: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=79095 ), including getting scum vibes from her at the very beginning of the game and he suspected her of being scum all throughout the game. The main reason why he didn't push her in that game is because he would have felt bad about mislynching her, and I believe for that reason he would never seriously push Shoshin on day one in this game regardless of his thoughts on her alignment.
2) There's the argument to be made that scum!Shoshin could have a reasonable degree of confidence that she could "out-town" at least one of Irrelephant or myself based on her reputation of being a strong town player, especially when coupled with spreading paranoia about scum!Irrelephant and how he would supposedly self-nominate himself 75% of the time as scum (see: post 1570). And she did talk about scum!Irrelephant a lot on day two.
3) She did contribute a lot to both GrandWazoo and Fuscosco getting lynched.
4) Her self-meta essay (see: post 1868) is suspect. I think the only time I've seen someone do an extensive self-meta essay of themselves was when DoubtingThomas did it in Newbie 1913 (link: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10681358 ), and he was scum in that game and this was in part why I highly suspected him of being scum on day one in that game. And the more aware someone is of their meta, the more capable they are going to be at mimicking their town play. For example, you picked up on this in Newbie 1900 when you said "Volxen is meta-aware" (link: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10563210)
5) Her coming to the conclusion that you and Scumreading are both "locktown" is highly suspect.
6) Her backtracking on her previous locktown!Alonzo read is highly suspect.
7) This nomination list, like the first nomination list, also makes sense from the perspective of scum!Shoshin, because now the narrative that she can push is "the first nomination list was all town, and now scum are self-nominating to cause paranoia about scum!Shoshin".
I'm not ready to place my vote yet.
Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:00 am
by Vedith
I'm pretty busy until tomorrow.
Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:02 am
by volxen
8) Shoshin having Auro as locktown but not Irrelephant is also highly suspect. Her main reasoning for not having Irrelephant as locktown seems to be primarily because of 1) his skill at scum and 2) him townreading Fuscosco early on day one. But Auro is also extremely skilled at scum (I would say Auro is definitely on Irrelephant's level), and this didn't stop her from declaring him locktown. I don't understand why she exercised so much caution regarding Irrelephant's slot but simultaneously came to a very "easy" townread on Auro, when she knows that both players are extremely skilled at scum. If anything, wouldn't she need to be more careful in evaluating Auro, considering she is at least familiar with Irrelephant's scumgame whereas she has never seen Auro's scumgame before?
9) Shoshin criticizing me for having some degree of "paranoia" about scum!Shoshin or scum!Auro is hypocritical when she herself had paranoia about scum!Irrelephant.
Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:21 am
by Shoshin
This game is lost.
I'm done trying.
Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:22 am
by Shoshin
VOTE: chennisden
Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:28 am
by Shoshin
In post 2469, Shoshin wrote:I guess I'll get into the logic of how this game breaks down:
1. If I were scum, I would never nominate myself with Vedith/Chen unless all of DT/Chen/Vedith were town. This is because scum me aligned with one or two of DT/Chen/Vedith easily wins the game by nominating three townies outside of DT/Chen/Vedith. We mislynch during nomination, and then we mislynch the townie in DT/Chen/Vedith. I follow this strategy as scum because it safely wins me the game by following my poe to its logical conclusion. Thus, to believe that I'm scum, you have to believe that all of DT/Chen/Vedith are town.
2. If SR is scum with one or two of DT/Chen/Vedith, he never nominates anyone in the group of DT/Chen/Vedith. This is because scum SR easily wins by nominating three townies outside of himself or DT/Chen/Vedith. He mislynches during nomination, and then he mislynches the townie in DT/Chen/Vedith. Scum SR follows this strategy because it simply follows my poe to its logical conclusion.
3. If the scum includes two of DT/Chen/Vedith, they almost always nominate three townies outside of DT/Chen/Vedith. Again, this allows scum to follow my poe to its logical conclusion, winning them the game. Thus, the unique situation we find ourselves is unlikely to arise in a situation where two of DT/Chen/Vedith are scum.
4. If the mafia is precisely DT/Chen/Vedith, they lose if they nominate three townies outside of themselves. Thus, their optimal strategy is to shake things up. How do you shake things up? You nominate yourselves in some sort of combination. This reading is consistent with the current nominations.
5. Everything else is WIFOM. If you say scum are trying to outplay by acting differently than the above, you're saying that scum chose the harder path to victory for no reason other than style points. It's absurd to suggest that scum do things solely because of WIFOM. Scum do things to win the game, period. WIFOM is occasionally useful in that pursuit, but at the end of the day, scum are most likely to do what wins them the game. So don't give me a bunch of WIFOM excuses to argue my analysis is incorrect. I'm talking about what's by far the most probable outcomes.
I'm ignoring anyone who has concerns about me unless they explain first why they think all of DT/Chen/Vedith are town.
Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:29 am
by Vedith
I don't think Chen is town.
Explain why DT Scum though? Small words for my little brain.
Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:32 am
by Shoshin
Take a look at how you responded to me when I asked about SR. Then imagine I'm answering exactly the same.
Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:33 am
by Vedith
In post 2558, Shoshin wrote:Take a look at how you responded to me when I asked about SR. Then imagine I'm answering exactly the same.
Why does DT singing make him Scum though?
Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:40 am
by ejjinami
Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:45 am
by Vedith
The thing I don't understand here Shoshin. You're playing as giving up and yet Chen is a Scum read to you?
Why is lynching Chen over me that bad if you can just vote me tomorrow?
UNVOTE: Chen
Standard Friday night busy won't be on until tomorrow properly
Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:36 am
by Alonzo
In post 2557, Vedith wrote:I don't think Chen is town.
Explain why DT Scum though? Small words for my little brain.
Is this you drawing a line in the sand Vedith?
Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:44 am
by Vedith
Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:54 am
by Shoshin
Can you just hammer Chenn already so we can move on from this game?
In post 2537, volxen wrote:DoubtingThomas is strongly opposed to bussing and would be opposed to a strategy along the lines of "let's nominate two of us and have one bus the other for towncredit". I believe that he would strongly object to a nomination list that is highly likely to lead to a red flip.
Just because one's generally opposed to bussing, it doesn't mean they'd refuse to bus when it makes for optimal play given the gamestate.
As scum I've lynched my teammate before (Newbie 1898).
Besides, in the world where both are scum, do you agree that their best agenda for today would be to push Shoshin?
There's a difference between bussing when it's absolutely necessary vs going out of your way to bus just for the sake of bussing for perceived towncredit. Scum!Chennisden AND scum!Vedith nominating themselves against town!Shoshin is almost always going to lead to a red flip today, unless they could produce enough WIFOM to generate enough paranoia about Shoshin to get her lynched. Some people would employ this kind strategy as scum, but I have no reason to believe that someone who is opposed to bussing on a fundamental level (such as DoubtingThomas) would do so.
You've also shared with me that you are fundamentally opposed to bussing unless absolutely necessary, and Irrelephant is known for that as well. So it's clearly a "thing" for some people to avoid bussing at all costs.
Like Shoshin mentioned earlier, it's important to focus on what's probable vs what's possible, because anything is technically "possible". I think a DoubtingThomas/Vedith/Chennisden scumteam is so unlikely that it's not even worth considering at this point.
In post 2469, Shoshin wrote:I guess I'll get into the logic of how this game breaks down:
1. If I were scum, I would never nominate myself with Vedith/Chen unless all of DT/Chen/Vedith were town. This is because scum me aligned with one or two of DT/Chen/Vedith easily wins the game by nominating three townies outside of DT/Chen/Vedith. We mislynch during nomination, and then we mislynch the townie in DT/Chen/Vedith. I follow this strategy as scum because it safely wins me the game by following my poe to its logical conclusion. Thus, to believe that I'm scum, you have to believe that all of DT/Chen/Vedith are town.
2. If SR is scum with one or two of DT/Chen/Vedith, he never nominates anyone in the group of DT/Chen/Vedith. This is because scum SR easily wins by nominating three townies outside of himself or DT/Chen/Vedith. He mislynches during nomination, and then he mislynches the townie in DT/Chen/Vedith. Scum SR follows this strategy because it simply follows my poe to its logical conclusion.
3. If the scum includes two of DT/Chen/Vedith, they almost always nominate three townies outside of DT/Chen/Vedith. Again, this allows scum to follow my poe to its logical conclusion, winning them the game. Thus, the unique situation we find ourselves is unlikely to arise in a situation where two of DT/Chen/Vedith are scum.
4. If the mafia is precisely DT/Chen/Vedith, they lose if they nominate three townies outside of themselves. Thus, their optimal strategy is to shake things up. How do you shake things up? You nominate yourselves in some sort of combination. This reading is consistent with the current nominations.
5. Everything else is WIFOM. If you say scum are trying to outplay by acting differently than the above, you're saying that scum chose the harder path to victory for no reason other than style points. It's absurd to suggest that scum do things solely because of WIFOM. Scum do things to win the game, period. WIFOM is occasionally useful in that pursuit, but at the end of the day, scum are most likely to do what wins them the game. So don't give me a bunch of WIFOM excuses to argue my analysis is incorrect. I'm talking about what's by far the most probable outcomes.
I'm ignoring anyone who has concerns about me unless they explain first why they think all of DT/Chen/Vedith are town
.
I don't get the correlation here -- why would someone need to believe that all three of {DoubtingThomas, Chennisden, Vedith} are town for you to address their concerns? I find your analysis that scum!Shoshin only makes sense if all three of them are town to be faulty. From my point of view you're effectively saying that the only way you could be scum here is if the scumteam is exactly {Shoshin, Auro, Scumreading}. I'm not seeing why that has to be the case. In fact, I think objectively these are all possible scumteams with you on the scumteam:
I've ruled out the other scumteam combinations with you on the scumteam because I don't think that there are three scum nominees, and if there are two scum nominees, I don't think that the third scum is DoubtingThomas or Auro because of their philosophies on bussing. And I've ruled out you being scum with DoubtingThomas period because you came somewhat close to being nightkilled on day 2 and DoubtingThomas was voting for you for a long time, and his vote could have made a difference in whether you were nightkilled or not, especially if I had voted for you and/or if Irrelephant stopped self-voting.
Two scum nominees make sense if the scumteam is either of Shoshin/Chennisden/Scumreading or Shosin/Vedith/Scumreading, because all of you have taken heat and could benefit from the perceived towncredit you would gain from bussing. But two scum nominees would also make sense if the scumteam is Scumreading/Chennisden/Vedith for this same reason as well.
In post 2537, volxen wrote:DoubtingThomas is strongly opposed to bussing and would be opposed to a strategy along the lines of "let's nominate two of us and have one bus the other for towncredit". I believe that he would strongly object to a nomination list that is highly likely to lead to a red flip.
Just because one's generally opposed to bussing, it doesn't mean they'd refuse to bus when it makes for optimal play given the gamestate.
As scum I've lynched my teammate before (Newbie 1898).
Besides, in the world where both are scum, do you agree that their best agenda for today would be to push Shoshin?
There's a difference between bussing when it's absolutely necessary vs going out of your way to bus just for the sake of bussing for perceived towncredit. Scum!Chennisden AND scum!Vedith nominating themselves against town!Shoshin is almost always going to lead to a red flip today, unless they could produce enough WIFOM to generate enough paranoia about Shoshin to get her lynched. Some people would employ this kind strategy as scum, but I have no reason to believe that someone who is opposed to bussing on a fundamental level (such as DoubtingThomas) would do so.
You've also shared with me that you are fundamentally opposed to bussing unless absolutely necessary, and Irrelephant is known for that as well. So it's clearly a "thing" for some people to avoid bussing at all costs.
Like Shoshin mentioned earlier, it's important to focus on what's probable vs what's possible, because anything is technically "possible". I think a DoubtingThomas/Vedith/Chennisden scumteam is so unlikely that it's not even worth considering at this point.
how do you know my fundamentals of playing scum?
Because you made your stance on bussing very clear on day one in this game, and I don't see any reason for you to lie about that just so that you could nominate both of your scumbuddies on day four and then come out and say, "I would never do that".
You, Auro, and Irrelephant are all very well capable of deep wolfing as scum, and I believe that all three of you would strive for that "perfect win" as scum.
In post 2556, Shoshin wrote:I'm ignoring anyone who has concerns about me unless they explain first why they think all of DT/Chen/Vedith are town.
Then I guess you will continue to ignore me, but it's a logical fallacy to suggest that the only way you can be scum is if all three of them are town.
Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:56 am
by Alonzo
It's probable if we don't kill shosh today, scum will put her up everyday until we do
Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:58 am
by Shoshin
UNVOTE:
Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:20 am
by volxen
@Auro, Thoughts on DoubtingThomas? I just skimmed through his ISO in this game, and his play here is very different compared to how he played in Newbie 1913, where he was scum. He definitely seems more towny/believable in this game compared to Newbie 1913.
