White Flag - TM2020

[Dannflor]

Ankamius doesn't generally like Dong but also really doesn't think their hammer on nsg feels like they know nsg is scum

[Dannflor]

their hammer on nsg feels like they know nsg is scum

This is probably the only thing that gives me pause on Dong. But also EC still kinda wants him just to be rid of him before LyLo.

[Cephrir]

Yeah if dann is scum he can just win for that, I'm good.

[Dannflor]

I was going to wall again, but Im high and feel a little wordy and like things might not flow if i bunched everything together. Enjoy this next few hours postings.

despite what I've said I don't actually want to lynch nsg day 1, I was just hoping wagoning her would be effective in getting her to play and ehhhhhh

I've been thinking about this a little bit. If NSGs team is pulling her to other games where they need help do you think that they would do that with her as scum or as town? If she is scum then wouldn't her team make shes in here making noise so she doesnt take this heat? If she is town then they probably assume that they can borrow her for the time being with the idea that she can come in here and town it up when she needs to.

This is all kinda working under the idea that we are incapable of finding scum on our own and that we need her to come save us.

I think that we have a good deal of info going into this first lynch and that we will have a better understanding of the game state when we see a few flips.

I still do have problems with FF and it mostly boils down to stuff like this D1. I don't really think scum falls into either the hard-defending (Cheeky), or hard pushing (Cephrir) camps of the NSG lynch. Rather I think they'd be closer to soft defending or soft bussing. And FF kinda has both in his ISO.

[Dannflor]

Sorry BB.

VOTE: BBmolla

VOTE: BB

fine

VOTE: bb

If you guys won't go NSG and I can't interest anyone in a Dong lynch I can vote BB.

VOTE: Bb

Sure, tomorrow we can have a better discussion.

VOTE: BB
L1 i think

I think the last 3 votes on this flash wagon have aren't SvS. The wagon was on FF. There's no point to joining a flash wagon on your buddy knowing that NSG is the third and is definitely getting flipped before LyLo. It's better to stay quiet here as scum if BB is scum, which I think eliminates BB/FF, BB/Dong, and BB/Cephrir. BB/Cheeky could possibly be a thing but it's very unlikely Cheeky would start that wagon there, aside from my independent town read. Overall, I'm starting to think there's very few teams BB can actually fit into?

[Dannflor]

BB/Auro
BB/Hopkirk

BB/Cheeky
BB/Gobble

I think the bottom two are pretty unlikely for reasons already mentioned, but I'd like others to weigh in on those specifically. As for the top two, does anyone see anything that discounts those two outside of independent reads? I'm wondering if we can get close enough to pseudo clear BBmolla, or at least narrow down his teams to one or two possibilities.

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Hopkirk

[Cephrir]

VOTE: Hopkirk, again

[Dannflor]

I'm actually pretty unsure who Gobble's partner is if he's scum? BB/Hopkirk both seem unlikely based on votes. Dong probably not. Cheeky probably not.

I guess they could be fake busses and yadda yadda WIFOM but the timing makes it suspect.

[CheekyTeeky]

Ok so far Pops hasn't read all the game but she has a spicy scum read on Cephrir and she berated me for being a dick to/scumspecting Dunnstral.
She used a lot of words to reason the Cephrir scumread that looked very convincing to me.

Even if this is no longer true, can you paraphrase Pops' scum case on Ceph?

That seems like a lot of work but I'll get to it.

[CheekyTeeky]

Oh Duck also thinks BBmolla is town, I forgot to mention that earlier. Ankamius' tentative team solve is Hopkirk/FF.

You know it's eerie because I said to my team it would be really sad if I came into the game scumreading FF/Hopkirk and then ended up way off track. At which point Ali said lynch hop when you and I were 1v1ing.

[CheekyTeeky]

Yeah if dann is scum he can just win for that, I'm good.

I'll take it.

[Dannflor]

The following post is from EC:

Spoiler: Team Set 1

BB Cheeky
BB Auro
BB Hop
BB Gobble
FF Ceph
FF Hop
FF Dong
FF Goble
Cheeky Auro
Cheeky Ceph
Cheeky Hop
Cheek Dong
Cheeky Goble
Auro Hop
Auro Dong
Auro Goble
Ceph Hop
Ceph Goble
Hop Dong
Hop Goble
Dong Goble

BB - 4
FF - 4
Ceph - 4
Auro - 5
Dong - 5
Cheeky - 6
Goble - 6
Hop - 7

Spoiler: Team Set 2

BB Cheeky
BB Auro
BB Hop
FF Hop
FF Dong
FF Goble
Cheeky Hop
Cheeky Goble
Auro Hop
Auro Dong
Auro Goble
Ceph Hop
Ceph Goble
Hop Dong
Hop Goble

FF/Ceph is unlikely
BB/Goble is unlikely
Cheeky/Auro is unlikely
Cheeky/Ceph is unlikely
Cheeky/Dong is unlikely
Dong/Goble is unlikely

with those removed from rates, its
BB - 3
FF - 3
Ceph - 2
Auro - 4
Dong - 3
Cheeky - 3
Goble - 4
Hop - 7

I'm going to try to make this succinct so that it's easier for Dann to paraphrase. The open is over, meaning this game now gets half of my attention. So feel free to ask me questions.

1.

Overall, I think the first dataset is more useful. I have reasons for eliminating all the teams I did, and I'm confident in those reasons. This type of solving is something I've been trying out and it's done *independently* of my reads. I look for interactions that are never S/S one or two way. This punishes lower activity people, but this strat usually compliments killing lurkers anyway.

2.

The second dataset removes several teams I've marked as unlikely, but aren't completely ruled out. They should still be considered in the total, but I think it's mentioning they're considered lower priority teams. If you have any questions about why I ruled out any one team, go ahead and ask. I have specific posts and/or notes marked.

3.

I would have rathered Dann did not post any of what he did from me on the last page, but I didn't indicate that so oh well. It just means this solving must be cut short and I can't wait until tomorrow like I wanted. Scum know what we're looking for now, and we probably die tonight if we miss.

4.

Now for the fun stuff! This is WF; we don't need both scum. Thus, it is possible to cover all teams in 3 lynches assuming you can take Dann as town. At least, we can get very close. Imagine Hop is the lynch and flips town (the former I think is likely, the latter unlikely). That leaves 14 teams, excluding whoever the NK is if its not Dann.

After, say we lynch Gobble or Cheeky. Gobble has 6 teams, as does Cheeky. Let's say Gobble based on my current reads. If he flips town, there are then 8 remaining teams. This excludes someone else getting night killed. In the worst case scenario Ceph gets NKed, who at this point only has FF and Cheeky as viable partners and they're both unlikely pairings.

FF's only partner is Dong after all this. That is close to a perfect solve! Congratz! Unless you think BB/Auro, Cheeky/BB, or Cheeky/Auro are exactly the team, we can just lynch Dong as this point and win. This is even closer to a perfect solve if the NK is someone else or if I can find more teams to remove. But it got posted early so oops.

5.

Now for reads! Reads are kept completely separate from this. However, they are used in tandem. More forum mafia players don't acknowledge their reads are typically not above random by much if at all, often even below. This system is a good check to balance out these reads. If you're looking in likely worlds, the most likely scum is clearly painted out. If you disagree or have questions about any eliminations I've done, or if you want to suggest one, please ask or input. Please note that I read for theater and would not remove a lot of the things some of you probably would. Call me over paranoid if you must.

6.

Okay NOW it's time for reads. Based on mine and Dann's reads, I think Ceph, BB, Auro, and Cheeky are all pretty solidly town. This is why in that f5 I would kill Dong despite Auro technically having more team possibilities. I can easily be wrong on a town read, but this is WF. I don't need to correctly scum read both scum. Me being aggressively wrong on two strong town reads is very rare. In a game where I'm invested, it is non existant. My most confident reads so far have been Dunn and Kitty town, and NSG scum. Espeonage was a hiccup but not enough of one to tell me I'm somehow wrong on both scum. Overall, I'm not intensely worried about this game.

7.

ank is spicy.

8.

OKAY NOW THE BEST PART OF ALL: IGNORING FULL SOLVING, HOW DOES THIS COALESCE WITH MY OWN READS?

This is the section that adjusts with reads as we move on with the game.

Cephrir --- Independently very town. I got this feeling consistently on rereading. His only potential partners are Hop, Gobble, Cheeky (unlikely), FF (unlikely). If there was a Hop town flip, there's really no reason I'd ever reconsider, because Gobble fits in way more worlds, and Cheeky and FF are not only both independently townie but also unlikely partners.

BBmolla --- Independently probably just town. If there's a Hop town flip, his partners are Auro, Cheeky, and an unlikely Turkey. This again indicates town. I town read most of his potential pariings and him being scum requires me being wrong on two strong town reads.

FF --- His team possibilities with Hop, Dong, and Gobble is not a great look. However, still sticking to a town lean individually. Unlikely Ceph pairing is a thing too.

Auro --- Again, pairings aren't great, as with FF. Townie independently. Duck has a confident town read here. Still a town lean.

Cheeky --- Lots of pairings. Some pinging posts. Overall, more town than not. I think Pops can spew this slot's alignment. More importantly, I can find this slot's alignment in a LyLo situation if that nightmare ever comes to fruition.

Of the 3 people I'm still considering killing today (Hop, Dong, Gobble), Hop has not had meaningful enough interactions in my opinion to kill of pairings much.

Gobble had a TMI-level reads post Day 1 (Dann quoted this earlier) if my reads are right, lol. Not sure if town!him is capable of having reads that good? No offense. I don't actually know him that well so I don't mean this to be offensive. Scum-lean. Could die.

Hop is the best lynch overall in terms of solving. Fits with the most people, has scum equity, etc. The one down side to this lynch is that if he's town he's more likely to be able to solve well than Dong, and I value his opinion more (again no offense to Dong). So, this is a tough decision.

Dong is scummy, but has overall less potential partners. Fits my lynch scummy lurkers early policy. Could die.

This whole thing would have been better if we had an extra day for uninfluenced data and a NK. Might have even gotten a perfect solve. But oh well. Like I said, not too too worried about this game.

[Dannflor]

addendums:

1. EC reread 80% of the game to post this.
2. He is excited for Hop and FF to be less busy IRL and see their catchups.

[CheekyTeeky]

Alright Hop/Gobble today as stated earlier.

[CheekyTeeky]

Dong/FF tomorrow if we don't win. Best Lylo outcome.

[BBmolla]

I like everything being posted

No need to rush we got over a week

Doing grad school auditions (going very poorly tbqh) but I’m here

[BBmolla]

Gobbles disappearing randomly is weird js where’s he been

[Dannflor]

yeah we really need more people playing

particularly FF/Hopkirk but everyone would be nice

[BBmolla]

Consider my vote on Hop

UNVOTE:

I don’t want shenanigans ending the day early

Danns solve is relatively similar to mine.

[Dannflor]

checking some things

Auro, what's your Cheeky read at?

[BBmolla]

Dann what are your thoughts on Hop/Dong interactions

[BBmolla]

Or whoever from your team idc

[Auro]

They're kinda ridiculous and I'd expect scum to have more subtlety in the bus to town cred equation

Not Gobble

Also, you quoted BB votes on Gobble to discount BB+Gobble team, that's the classic white flag Gambit.

Molla might be a better lynch than Gobble btw.

[Auro]

checking some things

Auro, what's your Cheeky read at?

Town.