Page 104 of 140

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:35 am
by ejjinami
Vote Count 4.7
Chennisden:
(2) scum reading, Auro
Shoshin:
(2) Alonzo, DoubtingThomas
Vedith:
(1) chennisden

Not Voting:
volxen, Vedith, Shoshin

With 8 players alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Day 4 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-30 06:58:50)

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:34 am
by volxen
What really led me to correctly suspect DoubtingThomas of being scum in Newbie 1913 (link: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=78419), starting on literally page one of the game, is his positions simply did not seem believable and he made some really over the top posts that didn't seem likely to come from a towny mindset. Here are some examples of his scummy posts in that game:
Spoiler:
In post 21, DoubtingThomas wrote:I think akagami has good town cred for not voting despitr having like 4 ppl vote before them and itd be easy and tempting to just rvs someone as a wolf
In post 72, DoubtingThomas wrote:
In post 33, volxen wrote:
In post 21, DoubtingThomas wrote:I think akagami has good town cred for not voting despitr having like 4 ppl vote before them and itd be easy and tempting to just rvs someone as a wolf
Akagami wasn’t even supposed to post, since he was replaced by Roo (who did place an RVS vote). Nonetheless, why do you think Akagami’s slot deserves town credit for posting but not placing an RVS vote? Voting during the early game/RVS helps to move the game forward by generating discussion and allowing us to see how people respond to votes/pressure, and we ultimately have to lynch scum to win, so voting is a pro-town action. Just popping in to say “hi” doesn’t help to move the game forward. And why make the comment that “itd be easy and tempting to just rvs someone as a wolf”? Most people (regardless of alignment) vote for someone during RVS.
I already explained it.

He didn't vote when 4 people in front of him did.

As a wolf, your mindset naturally tends to be "I want to assimilate with the crowd (towns people who are not on your team)"

You see 4 people vote in front of you, you may
think
it's more natural to vote with them

the dude didn't

i think that comes from a townie mindset that wants to focus on themselves rather than be fake and "look" like they are townie
In post 186, DoubtingThomas wrote:
In post 180, hearthstone1235 wrote:@DoubtingThomas

Assuming you were another player in the game, would you scumread Doubtingthomas?

Would be nice if you addressed this:

Doubting Thomas is asking very general questions rather than pointed ones, that seems like being active lurking. I mean, there is a difference between asking someone what they think of the gamestate and what they think of a specific slot or a specific post. I feel like we are at the point where the questions should be specific rather than general. The questions just seem too easy.
Also, how about you? What are your thoughts on the game so far? What do you think of Roo and Volxen in particular?
I am going to be very honest with you, and this will probably seem very egotistical/over-confident and you will probably hate it and maybe use those personal feelings to scum read me but whatever

I am also going to be telling you the 100% truth and giving you this answer pretending I am another player who is completely aware of how DoubtingThomas works (well, because I am DoubtingThomas)

No, I won't for several reasons

Well, first, what brass has pointed out is very true. Asking 'general' question is an easy way for scums to make themselves
LOOK
like they are trying to solve. Brass makes an extremely good point that such questions are often >rand wolf for people, especially newer players.

He mentions also that asking "pin pointed" questions are beter than general questions. This is true. However, what he forgets is that good wolves will do townie things. Bad towns will do scummy things.

I am a pretty good wolf. Compared to my town game, I am a really good wolf. I have a pretty good win record as wolf (6-2? ish) and I have almost never been mislynched as a wolf (although I have been n1 vigged by towns two times by people who know my meta well)

The point brass is making is pretty good, and can generally be considered as kind of a "rule of thumb" especially in a newbie game like this one

But at the same time, if werewolf games were that easy, we won't have any good players right? Towns have done really dumb/anti-town things all the time. To the point where it is better for some of them to just kinda be policy lynched for being so bad.

I think I am going nowhere this pep talk. I have an issue always just rambling and talking abotu random shit that is unnecessary and that's why I don't do well in my job interviews.

Anyways, the point being, what Brass said is true to some extent. But it is not a good tell to one of the more experienced players.

Now let's go back to what I personally think about DT based on what I know.

DT has 9000 posts in a different website called Mafia Universe where he created the account mid-July of 2018. On record, he has about ~55 games played. A lot of them are turbos (which are very short 18min/6min mini games) and loves to play on 12hours/12hours phases or at the most 36/12hours phases. He subbed out of a lot of games on mafia scum when he joined a bunch couple months ago because the week long phases just was too much/boring for DT who likes to post a shitton

Given that, I think DT's overall performance here has been underwhelming for sure. However, I also know that DT
LOVES
to wolf. He loves to town too, but loves to wolf a lot more. He is also a far better wolf than town. What Brass has commented which is definitely lackluster of DT is never really a wolf tell for him. Rather, personally, I think it makes DT >rand town because he will high post and generate content as both alignment, quite frankly, but he will never be caught as a wolf for not really doing anything or trying to act fakely townie

DT will do what he does as town as a wolf. The questions he asks, the comments he make, the shitposts he writes, and the pushes he commits always come from the fact that he truly
BELIEVES
in (as a town) that or KNOWS THAT HE WILL BELIEVE it if he were town (as a wolf)

DT not posting any reads/pushes at the moment is slightly ping-y, but I am a little confused because he would have no problem just pushing people who are scummy or even if they are not scummy to see their reaction. His low content is also negative for town so I think he should start stepping his game up and start posting a lot more to carry town to the win.

Right now, I personally would list DT at "very slight scum lean" for low efforting, but secretly know that that is non alignment indicative for him and is only putting him at scum lean to see his reaction. He is a very omgus-y type of a player so that will generate reaction frmo him which will help you learn his alignment

Tl;dr If I am not DT but I know DT's meta and history, I would put him at very slight scum lean to generate reaction to help myself understand his alignment a little more while keeping in mind he is actually null. I would be slightly annoyed that he is not playing to his usual self because no matter what that is that is negative for town and hope that he will start playing. As of now, he isn't one of my main scum suspects tbh
In post 207, DoubtingThomas wrote:
In post 191, brassherald wrote:
In post 186, DoubtingThomas wrote:
Tl;dr If I am not DT but I know DT's meta and history, I would put him at very slight scum lean to generate reaction to help myself understand his alignment a little more while keeping in mind he is actually null. I would be slightly annoyed that he is not playing to his usual self because no matter what that is that is negative for town and hope that he will start playing. As of now, he isn't one of my main scum suspects tbh
Are you talking about yourself in the third person and reading yourself.

This is why I also hate walls, if you can say something in fewer words, say it that way, this post in general is too hard to follow and I have no clue what you are trying to say.
I think this post is extremely bad in a scummy way

First problem
He attacks the post which was merely an ANSWER to another player's question

Second problem
I see really no point of making this post at all.
He's asking a very simple question that can be kinda inferred to (that I made this post in a third person way) but also at the same time, the question itself doesn't contribute to ANY scum hunting at all. The answer to whether or not I wrote the post in a third person does not help brass know my alignment at all.

Third problem
Then he goes on to attack my post in a way that's NAI and kinda pointless to point out. That "he hates walls" again which is his opinion, and he is free to express it. However, by expressing this opinion along with a pointless question he asked above, he is literally contributing nothing to the thread but still commenting on a post which was not directed towards him at all.

I think him giving out a negative opinion about the post which is not about the content of the post and how that may be townish/scummish of me is usually how scums tend to try to
shade
other players.

Overall, this post has 3 things I hate so much

- Belittling a post in a very indirect yet meaningless way
- Using that negative factor of the post to attack my slot/give a negative impression to others about me
- While in actuality if you look into this post, he contributed absolutely nothing. He did not enhance a conversation between me and him nor gave any useful analysis wrt my post

Furthermore, I think his complaint about how "he hates long post" and "if you have a succinct way of say something, say it in a simpler way" is just kinda really bad approach to the game

I can understand disliking long posts and I am sorry if you think that it makes the point I am trying to get across to be lost in the middle of it, but I make long posts because I tend to get on a tangent and write about all the thoughts I have in the process. To partly show a transparent thought process I have. This way, I can show others how/why I felt/thought abotu something in a certain way and discuss about it with them. Which will help me understand the other person's alignment better

You can dislike long posts and hate my post for not getting straight to the point, but I feel pretty strongly about this.

At the same time, I now think it's
REALLY SCUMMY
for you to just attack my post based on the fact that it's a long post and I didn't get my point across with it. rather than talking/expressing about how that makes me townie/scummy nor actually trying to ask me questions about the confusion you have with the post.

Because if you are town, you should be curious about the confusion you have. You express that you did not understand my post completely, but really don't ask a legit question that will help your clarification. Rather, you focus on how that makes my posting bad. Again, I think that comes from a scummy agenda that you want to give others the impression that I am posting badly.


I believe you are scum here, sir.

VOTE: Brass


And here was the post were I summarized the case against scum!DT in that game:
Spoiler:
In post 350, volxen wrote:
In post 344, xwing wrote:hey guys, im back from vacation..
im still fine with either a yellow or saint lynch, and im still suspecting DT/BlurryX slot..
i mostly skimmed and didnt see any questions directed at me though, so lemme know if i missed any questions for me..
i agree that yellow's defeatist attitude is anti-town, but not too sure if it's town or scum indicative..meta points are towards scum yellow though..
I have a lot of concerns about DoubtingThomas's slot (now BlurryX's slot) as well. The three major things that really pinged me about DT were:

1) How he was so quick to give Akagami (Roo's predecessor) a "good amount of town credit" for posting but not voting in RVS after five people had already voted. "Easy" townreads at the beginning of the game are a red flag for me, because I expect people to be more skeptical of everyone else, especially at such an early stage of the game where there is very little content. I questioned him about this and the first time he responded to me, but then I asked him follow-up questions about it which he never responded to. After he came back after his first prod he quoted and responded to some posts directed to him (and these posts came
AFTER
my post with the follow-up questions), but he never responded to my post, and I don't see how he could have missed my post given that he responded to posts that came after my post. I even re-quoted my post with the follow-up questions and posted them a second time, and he still never responded, so he may have just been trying to avoid the issue altogether:
In post 74, volxen wrote:
In post 72, DoubtingThomas wrote:
In post 33, volxen wrote:
In post 21, DoubtingThomas wrote:I think akagami has good town cred for not voting despitr having like 4 ppl vote before them and itd be easy and tempting to just rvs someone as a wolf
Akagami wasn’t even supposed to post, since he was replaced by Roo (who did place an RVS vote). Nonetheless, why do you think Akagami’s slot deserves town credit for posting but not placing an RVS vote? Voting during the early game/RVS helps to move the game forward by generating discussion and allowing us to see how people respond to votes/pressure, and we ultimately have to lynch scum to win, so voting is a pro-town action. Just popping in to say “hi” doesn’t help to move the game forward. And why make the comment that “itd be easy and tempting to just rvs someone as a wolf”? Most people (regardless of alignment) vote for someone during RVS.
I already explained it.

He didn't vote when 4 people in front of him did.

As a wolf, your mindset naturally tends to be "I want to assimilate with the crowd (towns people who are not on your team)"

You see 4 people vote in front of you, you may
think
it's more natural to vote with them

the dude didn't

i think that comes from a townie mindset that wants to focus on themselves rather than be fake and "look" like they are townie
I just looked at Akagami’s profile, and while he has been on this site for a few months, this is actually the first game he has ever played in (though technically he wasn’t supposed to post because Roo had already replaced him). So it’s possible that he simply isn’t familiar with RVS and that’s why he made a “hi” post without voting for anyone. So I find his lack of voting during RVS to be NAI (not alignment-indicative).

I agree with you in the general sense that scum wants to blend in and try to look towny, but I don’t think that realistically translates to a lack of an RVS vote (after other people have already voted) being town-indicative just because it goes against the norm. Voting early on helps to generate discussion, which helps to move the game along faster and helps town to make a more informed lynch on day one. Not voting and just saying “hi” doesn’t advance the game, so it’s not really a pro-town action.

In any case, is it specifically the fact that he made that “hi” post without voting after five people had already voted that you find be towny? If he was the first person to post in the game, and if he had posted that same “hi” post without voting, would you still have found his lack of an RVS vote to be towny?
In post 228, volxen wrote:@DoubtingThomas, can you get back to me on this?
In post 74, volxen wrote:
In post 72, DoubtingThomas wrote:
In post 33, volxen wrote:
In post 21, DoubtingThomas wrote:I think akagami has good town cred for not voting despitr having like 4 ppl vote before them and itd be easy and tempting to just rvs someone as a wolf
Akagami wasn’t even supposed to post, since he was replaced by Roo (who did place an RVS vote). Nonetheless, why do you think Akagami’s slot deserves town credit for posting but not placing an RVS vote? Voting during the early game/RVS helps to move the game forward by generating discussion and allowing us to see how people respond to votes/pressure, and we ultimately have to lynch scum to win, so voting is a pro-town action. Just popping in to say “hi” doesn’t help to move the game forward. And why make the comment that “itd be easy and tempting to just rvs someone as a wolf”? Most people (regardless of alignment) vote for someone during RVS.
I already explained it.

He didn't vote when 4 people in front of him did.

As a wolf, your mindset naturally tends to be "I want to assimilate with the crowd (towns people who are not on your team)"

You see 4 people vote in front of you, you may
think
it's more natural to vote with them

the dude didn't

i think that comes from a townie mindset that wants to focus on themselves rather than be fake and "look" like they are townie
I just looked at Akagami’s profile, and while he has been on this site for a few months, this is actually the first game he has ever played in (though technically he wasn’t supposed to post because Roo had already replaced him). So it’s possible that he simply isn’t familiar with RVS and that’s why he made a “hi” post without voting for anyone. So I find his lack of voting during RVS to be NAI (not alignment-indicative).

I agree with you in the general sense that scum wants to blend in and try to look towny, but I don’t think that realistically translates to a lack of an RVS vote (after other people have already voted) being town-indicative just because it goes against the norm. Voting early on helps to generate discussion, which helps to move the game along faster and helps town to make a more informed lynch on day one. Not voting and just saying “hi” doesn’t advance the game, so it’s not really a pro-town action.

In any case, is it specifically the fact that he made that “hi” post without voting after five people had already voted that you find be towny? If he was the first person to post in the game, and if he had posted that same “hi” post without voting, would you still have found his lack of an RVS vote to be towny?

2) His whole... essay on self-meta, where he basically came to the conclusion that if he were another player in this game, he would "have a slight scumread on DT but really have DT as a nullread". The whole thing just looked like a roundabout way for him to try and make himself look towny, by giving the unexpected answer that he wouldn't be townreading himself if he were another player in the game:
In post 186, DoubtingThomas wrote:
In post 180, hearthstone1235 wrote:@DoubtingThomas

Assuming you were another player in the game, would you scumread Doubtingthomas?

Would be nice if you addressed this:

Doubting Thomas is asking very general questions rather than pointed ones, that seems like being active lurking. I mean, there is a difference between asking someone what they think of the gamestate and what they think of a specific slot or a specific post. I feel like we are at the point where the questions should be specific rather than general. The questions just seem too easy.
Also, how about you? What are your thoughts on the game so far? What do you think of Roo and Volxen in particular?
I am going to be very honest with you, and this will probably seem very egotistical/over-confident and you will probably hate it and maybe use those personal feelings to scum read me but whatever

I am also going to be telling you the 100% truth and giving you this answer pretending I am another player who is completely aware of how DoubtingThomas works (well, because I am DoubtingThomas)

No, I won't for several reasons

Well, first, what brass has pointed out is very true. Asking 'general' question is an easy way for scums to make themselves
LOOK
like they are trying to solve. Brass makes an extremely good point that such questions are often >rand wolf for people, especially newer players.

He mentions also that asking "pin pointed" questions are beter than general questions. This is true. However, what he forgets is that good wolves will do townie things. Bad towns will do scummy things.

I am a pretty good wolf. Compared to my town game, I am a really good wolf. I have a pretty good win record as wolf (6-2? ish) and I have almost never been mislynched as a wolf (although I have been n1 vigged by towns two times by people who know my meta well)

The point brass is making is pretty good, and can generally be considered as kind of a "rule of thumb" especially in a newbie game like this one

But at the same time, if werewolf games were that easy, we won't have any good players right? Towns have done really dumb/anti-town things all the time. To the point where it is better for some of them to just kinda be policy lynched for being so bad.

I think I am going nowhere this pep talk. I have an issue always just rambling and talking abotu random shit that is unnecessary and that's why I don't do well in my job interviews.

Anyways, the point being, what Brass said is true to some extent. But it is not a good tell to one of the more experienced players.

Now let's go back to what I personally think about DT based on what I know.

DT has 9000 posts in a different website called Mafia Universe where he created the account mid-July of 2018. On record, he has about ~55 games played. A lot of them are turbos (which are very short 18min/6min mini games) and loves to play on 12hours/12hours phases or at the most 36/12hours phases. He subbed out of a lot of games on mafia scum when he joined a bunch couple months ago because the week long phases just was too much/boring for DT who likes to post a shitton

Given that, I think DT's overall performance here has been underwhelming for sure. However, I also know that DT
LOVES
to wolf. He loves to town too, but loves to wolf a lot more. He is also a far better wolf than town. What Brass has commented which is definitely lackluster of DT is never really a wolf tell for him. Rather, personally, I think it makes DT >rand town because he will high post and generate content as both alignment, quite frankly, but he will never be caught as a wolf for not really doing anything or trying to act fakely townie

DT will do what he does as town as a wolf. The questions he asks, the comments he make, the shitposts he writes, and the pushes he commits always come from the fact that he truly
BELIEVES
in (as a town) that or KNOWS THAT HE WILL BELIEVE it if he were town (as a wolf)

DT not posting any reads/pushes at the moment is slightly ping-y, but I am a little confused because he would have no problem just pushing people who are scummy or even if they are not scummy to see their reaction. His low content is also negative for town so I think he should start stepping his game up and start posting a lot more to carry town to the win.

Right now, I personally would list DT at "very slight scum lean" for low efforting, but secretly know that that is non alignment indicative for him and is only putting him at scum lean to see his reaction. He is a very omgus-y type of a player so that will generate reaction frmo him which will help you learn his alignment

Tl;dr If I am not DT but I know DT's meta and history, I would put him at very slight scum lean to generate reaction to help myself understand his alignment a little more while keeping in mind he is actually null. I would be slightly annoyed that he is not playing to his usual self because no matter what that is that is negative for town and hope that he will start playing. As of now, he isn't one of my main scum suspects tbh

3) His scum-case on Brass, which was based on one rather short post from Brass, seemed fairly over the top:
In post 207, DoubtingThomas wrote:
In post 191, brassherald wrote:
In post 186, DoubtingThomas wrote:
Tl;dr If I am not DT but I know DT's meta and history, I would put him at very slight scum lean to generate reaction to help myself understand his alignment a little more while keeping in mind he is actually null. I would be slightly annoyed that he is not playing to his usual self because no matter what that is that is negative for town and hope that he will start playing. As of now, he isn't one of my main scum suspects tbh
Are you talking about yourself in the third person and reading yourself.

This is why I also hate walls, if you can say something in fewer words, say it that way, this post in general is too hard to follow and I have no clue what you are trying to say.
I think this post is extremely bad in a scummy way

First problem
He attacks the post which was merely an ANSWER to another player's question

Second problem
I see really no point of making this post at all.
He's asking a very simple question that can be kinda inferred to (that I made this post in a third person way) but also at the same time, the question itself doesn't contribute to ANY scum hunting at all. The answer to whether or not I wrote the post in a third person does not help brass know my alignment at all.

Third problem
Then he goes on to attack my post in a way that's NAI and kinda pointless to point out. That "he hates walls" again which is his opinion, and he is free to express it. However, by expressing this opinion along with a pointless question he asked above, he is literally contributing nothing to the thread but still commenting on a post which was not directed towards him at all.

I think him giving out a negative opinion about the post which is not about the content of the post and how that may be townish/scummish of me is usually how scums tend to try to
shade
other players.

Overall, this post has 3 things I hate so much

- Belittling a post in a very indirect yet meaningless way
- Using that negative factor of the post to attack my slot/give a negative impression to others about me
- While in actuality if you look into this post, he contributed absolutely nothing. He did not enhance a conversation between me and him nor gave any useful analysis wrt my post

Furthermore, I think his complaint about how "he hates long post" and "if you have a succinct way of say something, say it in a simpler way" is just kinda really bad approach to the game

I can understand disliking long posts and I am sorry if you think that it makes the point I am trying to get across to be lost in the middle of it, but I make long posts because I tend to get on a tangent and write about all the thoughts I have in the process. To partly show a transparent thought process I have. This way, I can show others how/why I felt/thought abotu something in a certain way and discuss about it with them. Which will help me understand the other person's alignment better

You can dislike long posts and hate my post for not getting straight to the point, but I feel pretty strongly about this.

At the same time, I now think it's
REALLY SCUMMY
for you to just attack my post based on the fact that it's a long post and I didn't get my point across with it. rather than talking/expressing about how that makes me townie/scummy nor actually trying to ask me questions about the confusion you have with the post.

Because if you are town, you should be curious about the confusion you have. You express that you did not understand my post completely, but really don't ask a legit question that will help your clarification. Rather, you focus on how that makes my posting bad. Again, I think that comes from a scummy agenda that you want to give others the impression that I am posting badly.


I believe you are scum here, sir.

VOTE: Brass
In any case, DT is someone I definitely want to look at much more closely. I plan to reread through his entire ISO again, and look through some of his previous completed games to get a better idea of his meta. He has multiple completed towngames on this site (though he has replaced out of several games), and I need to get a better idea of what his town meta looks like because a lot of the things he has said/done in this game are questionable/sketchy from my perspective.

I feel like compared to that game, the positions he has taken in this game are much more believable. You will notice in that game, he gave an over-the-top and over-explained reason for scumreading brassherald based on one post Brass made, whereas in this game he hasn't done that. His reasons for scumreading Shoshin have been very straightforward.

~Put all quotes in spoilers so the page doesn't get annoying to read later on. If needed, I can change it later so tell me if you're not ok with that
ejj~

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:52 pm
by Shoshin
Okay, Volx. I guess I have to treat you like a baby & spell everything out ad nauseam.


First line of questioning:

1. Is it possible that I'm scum from your perspective? Yes.

2. Is it possible that Auro's scum from your perspective? Yes.

3. Is it possible that Alonzo's scum from your perspective? Yes.

4. Is it possible that SR's scum from your perspective? Yes.

5. Is it possible that Vedith's scum from your perspective? Yes.

6. Is it possible that DT's scum from your perspective? Yes.

7. Is it possible that Chenn's scum from your perspective? Yes.

8. Is it possible that any scumteam composed of the above players is scum from your perspective? Yes.

9. Does answering any of the above get you closer to finding scum? No.

THEREFORE, STOP TALKING ABOUT WHAT'S POSSIBLE.



Second line of questioning:

1. Is it likely for scum me to choose the easiest path to victory? Yes.

2. Is it likely for scum me to choose the simplest path to victory? Yes.

3. Is it likely for scum me to choose the least risky path to victory? Yes.

4. Is it likely for scum me to make my path to victory harder for style points? No.

5. Is it likely for scum me to take unnecessary risks for style points? No.

6. Is it likely for scum me to create WIFOM for style points? No.

THEREFORE, DO NOT TALK TO ME ABOUT ANY SCENARIO IN WHICH I'M SCUM THAT ISN'T THE EASIEST, SIMPLEST, LEAST RISKY PATH TO VICTORY.



Third line of questioning:

1. Is mislynching today & tomorrow the quickest way for scum me to win? Yes.

2. Is mislynching today & tomorrow the easiest way for scum me to win? Yes.

3. Is mislynching today & tomorrow the simplest way for scum me to win? Yes.

4. Is mislynching today & tomorrow the least risky way for scum me to win? Yes.

5. Based on the above, if it's possible for scum me to mislynch today & tomorrow, is it likely for scum me to pursue an alternative strategy? No.

THEREFORE, SCUM ME ALWAYS ATTEMPTS TO MISLYNCH TODAY & TOMORROW.



Fourth line of questioning:

1.

2.





1. Is scum me self-nominating twice in a row in unpredictable situations likely to be the easiest, simplest, least risky path to victory? No.

2. Is scum me self-nominating against you & Irrelephant on D2 likely to be the easiest, simplest, least risky path to victory? No.

3. Is scum me lynching Irrelephant over you when Irrelephant reads me town likely to be the easiest, simplest, least risky path to victory? No.

4. Is scum me

3. Did scum me have opportunities to lynch you over Irrelephant on D2 without facing any risk? Yes.

3. If scum me could guarantee a mislynch today & tomorrow, is it likely for scum me to choose this path over another path to victory? Yes.

4.

9. Is it likely for scum me to nominate myself along with a partner when there is an easier, less risky path to victory? No.

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:52 pm
by Shoshin
Fuck I hate submit somehow by accident. I hate this game.

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:53 pm
by Shoshin
I will continue where I left off.

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:03 pm
by Shoshin
It comes down to this, Volx:

1. If any of DT/Chen/Vedith are scum with me, is it possible for scum me to nominate three townies who aren't DT/Chen/Vedith? Yes.

2. If scum me can nominate three townies today who aren't DT/Chen/Vedith, would this guarantee a mislynch today? Yes.

3. Does scum me face any risk in nominating three townies who aren't DT/Chen/Vedith? No.

4. If scum me gets a mislynch today, can scum me push an easy mislynch on the townie within DT/Chen/Vedith tomorrow? Yes.

5. If scum me pushes a mislynch on the townie within DT/Chen/Vedith tomorrow, will scum me face any risk? No.

THEREFORE, IF SCUM ME IS PARTNERED WITH ANY OF DT/CHEN/VEDITH, SCUM ME NOMINATES THREE TOWNIES OUTSIDE OF DT/CHEN/VEDITH.

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:07 pm
by Shoshin
One last line of questioning to make sure your myopic self doesn't misunderstand what this means:

Based on the above, you know for a fact that I am not scum with any of DT/Chen/Vedith, because if I were, I would have nominated three townies outside of DT/Chen/Vedith.

Therefore, you must argue that DT/Chen/Vedith are all town to say that I'm scum. And any paranoia about me outside of that is just speculation based on POSSIBILITY rather than PROBABILITY.

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:08 pm
by Shoshin
I have one final thing to say.

YOUR INABILITY TO UNDERSTAND WHY I DO THE THINGS I DO DOES NOT MEAN THOSE THINGS ARE SCUMMY.

LACK OF UNDERSTANDING IS NOT REASON TO SUSPECT ME.

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:21 pm
by Alonzo
VOTE: chennidsen

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:42 pm
by volxen
@Shoshin, Your analysis is wrong:

1) As Auro pointed out, the optimal strategy as scum is
NOT
to just continuously nominate three townies for each nomination phase because of the risk of everyone who is nominated becoming locktown. That's a good way for scum to lose the game. Therefore, it's a fallacy to believe that you would never, ever self-nominate on the premise that it's "not the easiest, most simple, least risky path to victory".

2) I do believe that scum!you would try to follow the "easiest, most simple, least risky" path to victory, but what that path looks like depends on who your scumbuddies are. If the scumteam is exactly Shoshin/Auro/Scumreading}, then yes, the easiest path to victory would be to mislynch one of {Vedith, Chennisden} today, and then after one of them flips green, hard push the other on day five on the basis that one of them "has" to be scum.

But if the scumteam is Shoshin/Vedith/Scumreading or Shoshin/Chennisden/Scumreading, is it really so off-the-wall to suggest that
the three of you realized that you most likely CANNOT win without bussing
? In either scenario, all three of you have taken a lot of heat, and none of you have the "towncredit" to easily lead back-to-back mislynches from the pool of {Volxen, Auro, Alonzo, DoubtingThomas, Chennisden} or {Volxen, Auro, Alonzo, DoubtingThomas, Vedith} today and tomorrow. So instead you nominate two of yourselves with the understanding that one of you is most likely getting flipped today to try to get at least one of the surviving members of the scumteam locked in as town. I don't see how that's too far-fetched to be probable based on the current state of the game.

That's the distinction. If the scumteam is Shoshin/Auro/Scumreading, then it's easy for you to push back-to-back mislynches on Vedith and Chennisden, especially because you would have deepwolf!Auro to help you out with this. If the scumteam is Shoshin/Vedith/Scumreading or Shoshin/Chennisden/Scumreading, then leading back-to-back mislynches is not the "easiest, most simple, least risky" path to victory if it's unlikely to be successful in the first place.

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:45 pm
by Shoshin
We are done talking, Volx. Do not sign up for my games again if you are town.

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:02 pm
by volxen
In post 2585, Shoshin wrote:We are done talking, Volx. Do not sign up for my games again if you are town.
I don't see the point of the AtE. Did I say that you were lockscum? No. I just disagreed with your analysis with respect to the conclusion that the
ONLY
way you could be scum is if the scumteam is Shoshin/Auro/Scumreading.

You seem to have a serious problem with people daring to challenge you.

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:06 pm
by Shoshin
WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH YOU, VOLX? I BROKE DOWN EVERY STEP IN THE LOGIC FOR YOU.

In post 2584, volxen wrote:But if the scumteam is Shoshin/Vedith/Scumreading or Shoshin/Chennisden/Scumreading
If the scumteam is me/Vedith/SR, we nominate Volx/Alonzo/Auro (i.e. three townies outside of DT/Chen/Vedith). We mislynch a nominee & then we mislynch one of DT/Chenn.

If the scumteam is me/Chenn/SR, we nominate Volx/Alonzo/Auro (i.e. three townies outside of DT/Chen/Vedith). We mislynch a nominee & then we mislynch one of DT/Chenn.

I DON'T BUS WHEN I HAVE SUCH AN EASY PATH TO VICTORY.

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:07 pm
by Shoshin
In post 2580, Shoshin wrote:It comes down to this, Volx:

1. If any of DT/Chen/Vedith are scum with me, is it possible for scum me to nominate three townies who aren't DT/Chen/Vedith? Yes.

2. If scum me can nominate three townies today who aren't DT/Chen/Vedith, would this guarantee a mislynch today? Yes.

3. Does scum me face any risk in nominating three townies who aren't DT/Chen/Vedith? No.

4. If scum me gets a mislynch today, can scum me push an easy mislynch on the townie within DT/Chen/Vedith tomorrow? Yes.

5. If scum me pushes a mislynch on the townie within DT/Chen/Vedith tomorrow, will scum me face any risk? No.

THEREFORE, IF SCUM ME IS PARTNERED WITH ANY OF DT/CHEN/VEDITH, SCUM ME NOMINATES THREE TOWNIES OUTSIDE OF DT/CHEN/VEDITH.
What question was answered wrong, Volx?

Every step in the logic is laid bare. Don't fucking write another wall at me without addressing the specific step in my logic that you take issue with.

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:15 pm
by Shoshin
In post 2586, volxen wrote:I don't see the point of the AtE.
It's not AtE. I don't want to have to deal with townies who struggle this much to follow basic logic when it's broken down the way I just did.

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:22 pm
by Shoshin
In post 2583, Alonzo wrote:VOTE: chennidsen
Why do you prefer Chenn over Vedith?

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:49 pm
by volxen
In post 2587, Shoshin wrote:
WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH YOU, VOLX? I BROKE DOWN EVERY STEP IN THE LOGIC FOR YOU.

In post 2584, volxen wrote:But if the scumteam is Shoshin/Vedith/Scumreading or Shoshin/Chennisden/Scumreading
If the scumteam is me/Vedith/SR, we nominate Volx/Alonzo/Auro (i.e. three townies outside of DT/Chen/Vedith). We mislynch a nominee & then we mislynch one of DT/Chenn.

If the scumteam is me/Chenn/SR, we nominate Volx/Alonzo/Auro (i.e. three townies outside of DT/Chen/Vedith). We mislynch a nominee & then we mislynch one of DT/Chenn.

I DON'T BUS WHEN I HAVE SUCH AN EASY PATH TO VICTORY.
Ah, wait. I did make a mistake in my own analysis. If the scumteam is either Shoshin/Vedith/Scumreading or Shoshin/Chennisden/Scumreading, then yes, you are correct in that you could nominate Volxen/Alonzo/Auro today (three town nominees) and potentially mislynch whichever one of {Vedith, Chennisden} is not your scumbuddy tomorrow, provided you still had enough "towncredit" tomorrow. It would theoretically be the "easiest, most simple, least risky" path to victory provided that you were confident enough that you could specifically push whichever one of {Vedith, Chennisden} is not your scumbuddy on day five.

Ironically though, I am actually getting town vibes from you over the AtE, considering how quickly it came after my post. If anything, I think that if you were scum you would probably be more inclined to threaten to replace out rather than tell me to not join any of your future games. I'm not sure that scum!you would think to fake that kind of response to me, especially just 3 minutes after I made my post.

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:01 pm
by ejjinami
Image
Vote Count 4.8
Chennisden:
(3) scum reading, Auro, Alonzo
Shoshin:
(1) DoubtingThomas
Vedith:
(1) chennisden

Not Voting:
volxen, Vedith, Shoshin

With 8 players alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Day 4 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-30 06:58:50)

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:30 pm
by Auro
Volxen, DT is probscum to me from two primary perspectives.

1. PoE: I have you as town from your analysis (if you're scum, you've suddenly expanded a lot on your scumrange; and there's another towntell I won't reveal atm). Shoshin is town for a host of reasons - if she's scum she's wayyyy outside her personal scumrange and I doubt that's the case. Alonzo's town. Leaves a pool of {DT, SR, Vedith, Chennisden} and I've started to feel Vedith town this gameday.
2. Agenda-driven play: I feel the nominations were explicitly to Target Shoshin and get her out of the game; and DT's transparently crusading against Shoshin.
3. Convenient play: Feel like DT settled on a Shoshin tunnel from early game and doesn't seem like he's doing much else. To be fair, though, Shoshin is a power player who manages to control lynches from BoP and players like RC/Shoshin influence the gamestate making it slightly harder to push elsewhere for other slots; regardless I think my point still holds validity.

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:39 pm
by Auro
The more we overthink this, the more we're likely to play into scum agenda.

Volxen, most of your analysis is correct; however Shoshin is right that you're explaining possibilities without taking into probabilities. We're locked on to guessing between these three today. Shoshin's town. Don't get distracted from sorting Vedith and Chennisden.

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2019 5:25 am
by Alonzo
In post 2590, Shoshin wrote:
In post 2583, Alonzo wrote:VOTE: chennidsen
Why do you prefer Chenn over Vedith?
I was scum with clem very recently and he went awol.

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2019 5:53 am
by Shoshin
VOTE: Chennisden

Let's just get on with this.

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2019 5:54 am
by volxen
@Auro, If we nightkill Chennisden today and they flip green, would that affect your read of Vedith at all? I am wondering if you are strongly townreading Vedith independent of the nomination list, or if you agree with the consensus that this nomination list is not all-town. If Chennisden flips green today, who would you want to lynch on day five?

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2019 5:55 am
by Vedith
I think I'd just prefer to be lynched and not deal with the players in this game.
Then you can sheep my reads.

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2019 6:00 am
by Auro
Volxen, of course a green flip would cause me to re-evaluate Vedith. A green flip would indicate that I'll have to re-evaluate other reads, too, but I'm not really looking into that possibility right now. I'm not strongly townreading Vedith, for the record - I felt his slot was scummy right until the last few pages. Is there any particular reas you're asking me about the hypothetical post-greenflip?

I was part of the consensus saying the nomination list isn't all-town. :P