Mini 2230: Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night: Game Over

[Snarky Fishes]

whoo

[Dunnstral]

Anyway. Even without seeing that post, I was a lot less guarded with you last night. And that's kinda the way I want to progress, and I'll hold the snark if you will.

Spoiler: Less Guarded

I'm basically completely fucking lost, town reading Luke has done terrible things to my other reads, I'm grounding my wife form the game for at least a few days because she had a breakdown last night and I can't bear to see her get sucked into this meatgrinder.

I feel like we're gonna end up being the consensus elim here and that we'll flip and that 9 (well, 8) of you are going to have to pick up the pieces. And that if I was wrong about Luke, I could be wrong about nearly fucking anybody. Literally only you and notsci hydra are our rocks and if either or both of you are scum well fucking played you can have your tenet revenge. This entire game started off on the wrong foot and this feels like the game where I tunneled town pooky-alt until I got mislim'd for the GG.

I feel like terrible things are happening and I'm adrift, unable to stop them from happening or positively influence them. I imagine this is how unwnd felt in tenet before he replaced out, but I'm too stubborn and braindead to let myself do that.

So instead I'm here, taking stupid ass potshots where I feel I can make valuable data for those who will outlive me to sort through in hindsight.

I've come to a point where I don't think either you or Luke are mafia.

I think updated reads from me are in order.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I assume that's a "Okay so why did you do the more plotty heavy stuff in tenet" query?

[✓]

[Medea the Alien]

The town stumps.

We had to play perfectly and it felt like herding cats (no offense) to prevent the team from bussing at all because the ONLY way we got away with not having townies we murdered come back WITH DATA was to end the game before it kicked in.

Do you remember reading my conjectures about the shard win condition prior to the rules change?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

The town stumps.

We had to play perfectly and it felt like herding cats (no offense) to prevent the team from bussing at all because the ONLY way we got away with not having townies we murdered come back WITH DATA was to end the game before it kicked in.

Do you remember reading my conjectures about the shard win condition prior to the rules change?

[✓X]

[Dunnstral]

Annie Edison, Snarky Fishes, Sleez
Lady Lambdadelta, Medea, Pooky
Here There Be Dragons, Lukewarm, Spiffeh
Titus, AA9
ManateeGal

Annie Edison, Snarky Fishes, Lady Lambdadelta
Unwnd, Medea, Lukewarm
Pooky, Spiffeh, Titus
Here There Be Dragons, AA9
ManateeGal

[Dunnstral]

"Plotting a course" is like the LEAST likely thing for me to do in any non-newbie scumgame. And even in enwbies, ehhhhhhhh not really.

That said I was really hoping somebody ELSE would reply with this data instead of me, but I suppose you can ask them to confirm its accuracy instead.

No games as scum-morph or scum-with-cabd in the recent past, but there is very much a seat-of-the-pants feel playing with scum-cabd.

HOWEVER:

Dangle a shiny enough shiny in front of him and it WILL be something he'll make risky plays to reach.

The Achievement Unlocked micro with its reward of a scum daykill if we did enough insanely risky plays for it (claim scum in a game post and a lolhammer being the main ones).

So what do you think about them right now?

[Medea the Alien]

The town stumps.

We had to play perfectly and it felt like herding cats (no offense) to prevent the team from bussing at all because the ONLY way we got away with not having townies we murdered come back WITH DATA was to end the game before it kicked in.

Do you remember reading my conjectures about the shard win condition prior to the rules change?

[✓X]

I'm sorry, I'm not groking. That's a Yes, no, or "sort of but I don't recall everything"?

[Dunnstral]

Rhea, I think that it was mainly this progression that pissed me off.

If Titus is not going to be the elim today, I at the very least want everyone to weigh in on the case. You already said you disagree and think that titus is town. That is more then most of the people no currently voting titus.

I think you might be attributing to malice something that would be more easily explained by incompetence/confusion.

The biggest thing I have for Titus!Town is that I think she actually believes she sprang some kind of amazing trap on me ala YuGiOh or some shit.

When she's caught as scum I see her usually freeze up and die.

i've actually killed scum!titus and seen scum titus get caught like multiple times

usually she just mumbles some nonsense and hides from the thread until she gets eliminated.

she's got a lot of zest this game and just keeps going.

I'm reading this as kind of town

[Here There Be Dragons]

Annie Edison, Snarky Fishes, Sleez
Lady Lambdadelta, Medea, Pooky
Here There Be Dragons, Lukewarm, Spiffeh
Titus, AA9
ManateeGal

Annie Edison, Snarky Fishes, Lady Lambdadelta
Unwnd, Medea, Lukewarm
Pooky, Spiffeh, Titus
Here There Be Dragons, AA9
ManateeGal

would you like to provide reasons or is being part of the "dragons scum but it's a secret why" brigade just that fun

[Snarky Fishes]

The town stumps.

We had to play perfectly and it felt like herding cats (no offense) to prevent the team from bussing at all because the ONLY way we got away with not having townies we murdered come back WITH DATA was to end the game before it kicked in.

Do you remember reading my conjectures about the shard win condition prior to the rules change?

kinda have to assume a competent scum team in this game unless town players are all chasing their own tails this game.

You set out to shut down a scum team trying a Tenet-style day 1 in Yggdrasil.

It doesn't really feel like that's the plan here, I guess.

In the demesne of Paranoia, I'm pretty much the Empress, but that's kinda the vibe I'm getting -- that ginning up paranoia could be an approach to shattering future town-cohesion.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

The town stumps.

We had to play perfectly and it felt like herding cats (no offense) to prevent the team from bussing at all because the ONLY way we got away with not having townies we murdered come back WITH DATA was to end the game before it kicked in.

Do you remember reading my conjectures about the shard win condition prior to the rules change?

[✓X]

I'm sorry, I'm not groking. That's a Yes, no, or "

sort of but I don't recall everything"

?

[✓]

[Medea the Alien]

It doesn't really feel like that's the plan here, I guess.

It's not. This was SUPPOSED to be a bridge building cohesion style of game. Now it's a slog fest.

[Snarky Fishes]

"Plotting a course" is like the LEAST likely thing for me to do in any non-newbie scumgame. And even in enwbies, ehhhhhhhh not really.

That said I was really hoping somebody ELSE would reply with this data instead of me, but I suppose you can ask them to confirm its accuracy instead.

No games as scum-morph or scum-with-cabd in the recent past, but there is very much a seat-of-the-pants feel playing with scum-cabd.

HOWEVER:

Dangle a shiny enough shiny in front of him and it WILL be something he'll make risky plays to reach.

The Achievement Unlocked micro with its reward of a scum daykill if we did enough insanely risky plays for it (claim scum in a game post and a lolhammer being the main ones).

So what do you think about them right now?

They're town enough that I desperately want to pick their brains in the event their elim goes through.

[Snarky Fishes]

It doesn't really feel like that's the plan here, I guess.

It's not. This was SUPPOSED to be a bridge building cohesion style of game. Now it's a slog fest.

I'm talking about the plan of scum writ large.

[Medea the Alien]

@RHEA:

Locking us in as an early hardpush to mislim, or early night kill, would give scum a guaranteed lock in extremely early towards that alternate win condition. Based upon the conventional wisdom of "no victories in a mini theme until night 3/ day 4" we assume there are 8 shards in play right now, give or take. We are assuming that scum has a total of 4, in a 2/1/1 split, but that's pure conjecture worst case scenario on our parts. Having two additional demon-degrees of safety completely turns this on its head though. Probably more singleton shards in circulation to let people power up, and since we only need to leave five undemonified players around, there's more room to power up town players if we can.

Depending on how today's elimination goes would dictate scum strategy, but regardless IF there is a desharding role in play, we would request it be used on us tonight. As we said, we don't see a world where we aren't targeted by scum or well-meaning town at this point, which makes us functionally useless as a PR. Not sure if we have a power drawback because we started 'powered up' or what, but that's where we are.

Mostly this, but also:

I did like three times

I still don't get it

Scum HAD an alternate wincondition of 7 2-sharded players alive or dead, right?

If knowledge that we started 2-sharded was out, and town played to shard players... and scum shot us early, they could use their not-nightkill method to shard players OTHER than the sharded one that had crumbed or expressed interest in getting sharded from the town mechanic to likely get to 5 (assuming one 2-sharded scum demon in play, which is likely) by the start of day two. You don't see how that's absolutely fucking horrifying?

I did like three times

I still don't get it

Scum HAD an alternate wincondition of 7 2-sharded players alive or dead, right?

If knowledge that we started 2-sharded was out, and town played to shard players... and scum shot us early, they could use their not-nightkill method to shard players OTHER than the sharded one that had crumbed or expressed interest in getting sharded from the town mechanic to likely get to 5 (assuming one 2-sharded scum demon in play, which is likely) by the start of day two. You don't see how that's absolutely fucking horrifying?

Oh right, we never mentioned that we feel due to Xenoblade II that scum likely have some sort of super conditional vig. Our working theory is a oneshot vig that only works on demons. The above math applies this asusmption.

why would scum shoot people at night if they are going for shard-win?

Alive OR dead key phrasing there my dude.

Killing us locks in a dead demon.

[Dunnstral]

Annie Edison, Snarky Fishes, Sleez
Lady Lambdadelta, Medea, Pooky
Here There Be Dragons, Lukewarm, Spiffeh
Titus, AA9
ManateeGal

Annie Edison, Snarky Fishes, Lady Lambdadelta
Unwnd, Medea, Lukewarm
Pooky, Spiffeh, Titus
Here There Be Dragons, AA9
ManateeGal

would you like to provide reasons or is being part of the "dragons scum but it's a secret why" brigade just that fun

I don't have enough scumreads, and am feeling increasingly less rosy about your play this game

[Medea the Alien]

It doesn't really feel like that's the plan here, I guess.

It's not. This was SUPPOSED to be a bridge building cohesion style of game. Now it's a slog fest.

I'm talking about the plan of scum writ large.

"Disrupt the town block before it can properly form"

It's working. And no, I don't know who it is because if I did, I'd be yelling for their blood.

[Here There Be Dragons]

:/

[Annie Edison]

That thoughts been on the forefront of my mind as well, Medea.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

@RHEA:

Locking us in as an early hardpush to mislim, or early night kill, would give scum a guaranteed lock in extremely early towards that alternate win condition. Based upon the conventional wisdom of "no victories in a mini theme until night 3/ day 4" we assume there are 8 shards in play right now, give or take. We are assuming that scum has a total of 4, in a 2/1/1 split, but that's pure conjecture worst case scenario on our parts. Having two additional demon-degrees of safety completely turns this on its head though. Probably more singleton shards in circulation to let people power up, and since we only need to leave five undemonified players around, there's more room to power up town players if we can.

Depending on how today's elimination goes would dictate scum strategy, but regardless IF there is a desharding role in play, we would request it be used on us tonight. As we said, we don't see a world where we aren't targeted by scum or well-meaning town at this point, which makes us functionally useless as a PR. Not sure if we have a power drawback because we started 'powered up' or what, but that's where we are.

Mostly this, but also:

I did like three times

I still don't get it

Scum HAD an alternate wincondition of 7 2-sharded players alive or dead, right?

If knowledge that we started 2-sharded was out, and town played to shard players... and scum shot us early, they could use their not-nightkill method to shard players OTHER than the sharded one that had crumbed or expressed interest in getting sharded from the town mechanic to likely get to 5 (assuming one 2-sharded scum demon in play, which is likely) by the start of day two. You don't see how that's absolutely fucking horrifying?

I did like three times

I still don't get it

Scum HAD an alternate wincondition of 7 2-sharded players alive or dead, right?

If knowledge that we started 2-sharded was out, and town played to shard players... and scum shot us early, they could use their not-nightkill method to shard players OTHER than the sharded one that had crumbed or expressed interest in getting sharded from the town mechanic to likely get to 5 (assuming one 2-sharded scum demon in play, which is likely) by the start of day two. You don't see how that's absolutely fucking horrifying?

Oh right, we never mentioned that we feel due to Xenoblade II that scum likely have some sort of super conditional vig. Our working theory is a oneshot vig that only works on demons. The above math applies this asusmption.

why would scum shoot people at night if they are going for shard-win?

Alive OR dead key phrasing there my dude.

Killing us locks in a dead demon.

[?]

[Medea the Alien]

That thoughts been on the forefront of my mind as well, Medea.

You really ought to be making your context clearer if you're not gonna quotetag.

Just a simple "re: 12345" or something.

[Snarky Fishes]

It doesn't really feel like that's the plan here, I guess.

It's not. This was SUPPOSED to be a bridge building cohesion style of game. Now it's a slog fest.

I'm talking about the plan of scum writ large.

I see why that was confusing.

Town was up against a competent scum team, but we shut down the pushes on mara and titus on day 1 and 2, and I think scum had shown enough of their hand by day 2 that their movements had become more obvious against the background movements of town. That and town was merciless in removing their own LHF at night with the chip mechanic.

If scum are going after LHF town they're ignoring a very shiny possibility and I doubt they are. I feel like if you're town a scum team would want to see how far town would go toward eliming you on our own.

[Medea the Alien]

@RHEA:

Locking us in as an early hardpush to mislim, or early night kill, would give scum a guaranteed lock in extremely early towards that alternate win condition. Based upon the conventional wisdom of "no victories in a mini theme until night 3/ day 4" we assume there are 8 shards in play right now, give or take. We are assuming that scum has a total of 4, in a 2/1/1 split, but that's pure conjecture worst case scenario on our parts. Having two additional demon-degrees of safety completely turns this on its head though. Probably more singleton shards in circulation to let people power up, and since we only need to leave five undemonified players around, there's more room to power up town players if we can.

Depending on how today's elimination goes would dictate scum strategy, but regardless IF there is a desharding role in play, we would request it be used on us tonight. As we said, we don't see a world where we aren't targeted by scum or well-meaning town at this point, which makes us functionally useless as a PR. Not sure if we have a power drawback because we started 'powered up' or what, but that's where we are.

Mostly this, but also:

I did like three times

I still don't get it

Scum HAD an alternate wincondition of 7 2-sharded players alive or dead, right?

If knowledge that we started 2-sharded was out, and town played to shard players... and scum shot us early, they could use their not-nightkill method to shard players OTHER than the sharded one that had crumbed or expressed interest in getting sharded from the town mechanic to likely get to 5 (assuming one 2-sharded scum demon in play, which is likely) by the start of day two. You don't see how that's absolutely fucking horrifying?

I did like three times

I still don't get it

Scum HAD an alternate wincondition of 7 2-sharded players alive or dead, right?

If knowledge that we started 2-sharded was out, and town played to shard players... and scum shot us early, they could use their not-nightkill method to shard players OTHER than the sharded one that had crumbed or expressed interest in getting sharded from the town mechanic to likely get to 5 (assuming one 2-sharded scum demon in play, which is likely) by the start of day two. You don't see how that's absolutely fucking horrifying?

Oh right, we never mentioned that we feel due to Xenoblade II that scum likely have some sort of super conditional vig. Our working theory is a oneshot vig that only works on demons. The above math applies this asusmption.

why would scum shoot people at night if they are going for shard-win?

Alive OR dead key phrasing there my dude.

Killing us locks in a dead demon.

[?]

I BELIEVE you're asking something about why we want to be desharded?

I'd much rather the shard go somewhere or to somebody more useful.

The ideal scenario is that players die with one and exactly one shard in inventory, safely "removing" that shard from the math of the alternate win condition. It's not as important now with the extra breathing room, but it is the case that our elim puts a "1" on the demon-lockin score card.

[Dunnstral]

Rhea, what do you think of 2580? I get that you think it's one of Medea/Pooky, what about the rest?