Mafiascum.net

In post 2578, the worst wrote:I'll read thru that l8r if I'm in the mood. anyone able to tell me if any of it was directed @ me?

Yes, basically every single post of mine on the previous page was either directed at you or about you

I'm trying really hard to reach out to you here to figure this out and I'm kinda feeling like you're avoiding responding to what I have to say by hiding behind 'lol walls that I dont want to read', which is honestly not a response that I'm used to you having to me and to my posts

I’ll read that in the next hour or 2. Promise.

In post 2591, Irrelephant11 wrote:Reading his past games, he seems to have an aggressive side when he thinks he's found scum that he seems to be trying to reign in this game

Read Momrangel's D1 ISO, there was nothing exciting to chew on, or get aggressive about, I personally wasn't convinced of her scum flip...
My EoD1 opinion:

In post 1583, Keyser Söze wrote:

In post 1577, Irrelephant11 wrote:talk to me more about why you think mom is scummy, I feel like she's been nearly scumsensus for awhile but I never understood the case after "she had a bad entrance"

Unfortunately PoE.

If you exclude the early fixation of Invisibility (think you could label him lynchbait), you would be hard pressed to give a definitive scum case.

Confirm bias has effected my read of them (based on their interactions with BS and Gamma).

Am I confident? Hell no.

I had nothing tangible to explore, and no one-on-one interactions with Mom to draw tone from.

In post 2595, Keyser Söze wrote:I've felt much better with my town reads this game. So far... a 100% record

scum claim

I'm actually feeling a lot better about D3 Keyser, overall, just based on how he's approaching the game and trying to rule out scum based on Mom's flip. I'm thinking about the game similarly atm, so it comes across as a towny perspective. Keyser moves to null. Re-reading Mom now

In post 2590, Gustavo wrote:who has analyzed mom's posts? who is most likely scum from them? I want to do it myself but again no time.

I like keyser as scum because he wasn't on the lynch but asked for a claim. You ask for a claim when someone is at L-1 and intent is given, you don't ask at l-2. i don't really see him pushing hard for that lynch either. like he didn't want to bus which makes sense as they would lose day talk.

Siiiiiigh.

Not taking NM into account is dumb

Also I've seen nm be far less "useless" as town

In post 2592, Gustavo wrote:just off memory skitter and keyser but somebody said skitter was not mom's partner and I am not sure why that was said. I can't do this off memory anymore, I need to refresh my mind by reading

Didn't you just respond to my post about how Skitter had been trying to lynch mom with singular perseverance since page 18

In post 2576, Keyser Söze wrote:@skittles

Do you think scum-TW has given up today? (he’s decided for D3 to be about him, with the potential of it being 9 town vs 1 Mafia going into N3) Is he

that

confident that his scum partner is that well town read / hidden?

Is there ANYTHING from his D1/D2 play that backs up this trying-to-look-scummy-but-really-a-town-pr narrative?

In our stack the deck game, I Vigged scum N1. TW basically outed himself D2 while their 3rd was one of the more scumread slots in the game.

So I'm not sure if it means he feels confident about their 3rd?

In post 2600, skitter30 wrote:

In post 2578, the worst wrote:I'll read thru that l8r if I'm in the mood. anyone able to tell me if any of it was directed @ me?

Yes, basically every single post of mine on the previous page was either directed at you or about you

I'm trying really hard to reach out to you here to figure this out and I'm kinda feeling like you're avoiding responding to what I have to say by hiding behind 'lol walls that I dont want to read', which is honestly not a response that I'm used to you having to me and to my posts

24 hours without elaborating on his claim (likely because he didn't find anything to help him make something plausible up?).

These delay tactics. Ugh.

I might have more on Irrelephant later today, but my read is mostly based on his relatively confident high number of town reads without "but I'm paranoid about X" type caveats. He'd be playing significantly against his wincon to do this when there are juicy targets like Keyser that people are trying to scumread, and there are more than one of these so it's not just covering for a partner.

In post 2605, Nauci wrote:

In post 2592, Gustavo wrote:just off memory skitter and keyser but somebody said skitter was not mom's partner and I am not sure why that was said. I can't do this off memory anymore, I need to refresh my mind by reading

Didn't you just respond to my post about how Skitter had been trying to lynch mom with singular perseverance since page 18

I did respond. It wasn’t an agreement with you

In post 2599, Keyser Söze wrote:

In post 2547, Keyser Söze wrote:

In post 794, Momrangal wrote:I am rethinking my read on Bernie, and I think he's going after low hanging fruit duck.

Bernie made a huge ass case on duck, and his tone and I agree with the lack of direction but I entirely disagree with duck being given enough space. I have that slot as null, but I honestly don't find his pred scummy outside the supposed semi-trustish whatever tell you want to call it regarding him replacing out. Even if whatsherface and skits (I think it was) told each other that they were excited to play the same alignment, I don't think replacing out should ever be alignment indicative and no one really has given duck a chance to do more than get his feet wet.

He even said that the wagon would have zero effect because he lacks time and wouldn't have it later in the week but absolutely no one has payed attention to that little tidbit.

Further more, this case on duck came when after duck said he wouldn't have any time to defend himself, and after duck is at a vulnerable L-2 (1?) position making it completely viable that duck gets lynched before he even had more time to get himself busy.

He also pushes duck but still takes a wholly neural stance on the matter so that, when popular scum read duck flips town, he can take the blame off himself considerably easier than most others gunning for his lych

Again, I don't think this is the way Mom describes/defends their scumpartner (the worst). She's begging for us to give TW a chance to prove themselves, and try to see past that suspicious replace out by Gemini.

If TW is scum this is actually some impressive anti-distancing from Momrangel here.

Perhaps this really is scum attacking town for going after lynchbait (and I had Bernie and TW completely wrong on D2)

@Gustavo

What are your thoughts on the above (RE: Momrangel-the worst associations).

Are you trying to say mom and duck are scum? If so I guess I can see it. He’s claiming a PR though at a weird time.

I was actually thinking it points against Mom and the worst being scum partners.

Do you think opposite to that (based on the post I quoted)?

I.e Do you think this is all staged to give TW town-cred through anti-distancing?

In post 2607, Nauci wrote:24 hours without elaborating on his claim (likely because he didn't find anything to help him make something plausible up?).

These delay tactics. Ugh.

I hope he roleclaims in the next 7 days We need time to chat about the claim / form a counter wagon.

I think given the mom scum flip, bernie looks town. mom is basically trying to discredit bernie in that post for his push on the worst. why would mom need to do that if the worst was town?

p.edit - I think most everyone has posted now right? if yes then we can push for his claim.

his post implies he has a guilty. if scum he has to bus or hang himself.

In post 2547, Keyser Söze wrote:If TW is scum this is actually some impressive anti-distancing from Momrangel here.

I dont actually think this is... as far out of normal scumplay as you think it is?

In post 2559, skitter30 wrote:i also don't understand why you semi-claimed a result on ep today either; it feels more like you're announcing 'i did something claimable' than an actual result that you're sharing to clarify the gamestate

That's not what it is, and if worst is fakeclaiming a guilty on me then you can lynch me and then immediately lynch worst tomorrow (or, preferably, just lynch worst)

In post 2560, Nauci wrote:Okay my meta dive assessment of TW is that lots of fluffposting is NAI. Post count is NAI (he's racked up >300 as both alignments). Tends to be a bit more defensive/short tempered as scum, and contribute more sharp questions/observations as town (on top of fluff posts). I apologize for being unnecessarily rude to the duckling but I do not rescind my scumread (almost all non-scum-reads on TW are as a result of the claiming that he has clearly done as scum).

this all seems really really consistent with worst scum here

In post 2575, BlackVoid wrote:@ErrantP, okay let's "connect." I agree that skitter30, Bernie, Gustavo are town although Gustavo for different reasons than you so we're actually on the same page here. But let's talk about your second tier townreads. All of the reasons you posted for them are pretty vague and stuff that could easily come from either alignment that you just seem to be choosing to interpret as town.

I really really chafe at your wording here. It seems like you're talking to me as a concession. If you're not actually that interested in what I have to say (and that's what it seems by how you start here, but you said that you did actually want to read what I said earlier), then just say that.

In any case, my "second tier townreads" are me choosing to interpret things that could come from either alignment as town, yes. You're exactly right. But I think those things are more plausibly town, or have the most cogent explanation as town, so that's why I'm saying they're town. The fact that they're second-tier townreads mean I'm evaluating and reevaluating from both sides and if you think I'm being disingenuous with those reads might mean that you think that I put more strength into those reads than I do.

In post 2575, BlackVoid wrote:Nauci is town for early game reasons and your intuition. Can you explain that some more?

I think that there has consistently been nuance in Nauci's posting and she tends to focus on the most salient parts of the game and points out the things that I also think are important/alignment indicative and I think scum tends to be less focused/more reactive to the general posts at large because they're not singularly focused on formulating reads like Nauci is here

But I do understand that Nauci being slightly less engaged decreases that sample size which is why I'm saying I don't put the most stock in that read

In post 2575, BlackVoid wrote:Irrelephant is town to you because he said he was sheeping Bernie on Momrangal. I can understand the argument of "why would scum say they are sheeping when they would want cred for a bus?" But it's not really a strong enough argument to outweigh an existing scumread. I could see scum using that as a reason to hop off because it's a weak reason to begin with. But I'll think this through more when I analyze him in depth.

When you mention that I do think that you're right, but I still don't really think that irrelephant is the likeliest scum in this situation, and i'll await your analysis

In post 2575, BlackVoid wrote:Keyser-Soze - holding onto an early game townread. A lot has happened since early game though. I'd like to see you comment on what you think of his recent posts. Have they made you doubt that townread or mostly re-inforced them?

I think that people scumreading keyser dont have strong reasons behind those things
I think that he has made a lot less readable stances/actions in D2 because I think that a lot of his analysis has been fake-able and the reason that I haven't made a lot of specific responses to Keyser's posts is because I dont have anything to say about how they affected my read (if they did I would have already brought it up.)

I think that the most important part to reading keyser right NOW is the fact that he thinks worst is plausibly a genuine PR and I will wait to see worst claim his result and keyser act on it before I make a judgment in that part.

In post 2575, BlackVoid wrote:I feel like you and Nauci are looking for a reason to townread Irrelephant rather than analyze his posts and objectively reach a conclusion.

I think this is an unreasonable expectation.

you trying to throw shade on that is just really really bad in my opinion. All the data that I took from irrelephant's posts I've already mentioned. I used it to make a read. That read is bound to change. I'm not going to take a hard stance because that's not how sorting people works most of the time. I've come out and said I'm conflicted on irrelephant. I've had irrelephant as strong town before, and if I had some ulterior motive to townread irrelephant i would have just maintained that.

I don't look at his posts and analyze every post (and by the way I dont even think there's that much analyzable data in every post anyway) and then say "okay, this is my strong, hard read." i'm going to keep evaluating using the things that I think are the most important.

In post 2612, Gustavo wrote:I think given the mom scum flip, bernie looks town. mom is basically trying to discredit bernie in that post for his push on the worst. why would mom need to do that if the worst was town?

Yes, Mom was attacking Bernie for going after low hanging fruit (TW).

What does that indicative RE: TW’s alignment... that’s my question...



P.EDIT just read BV’s comment describing it as “normal scum play”. Wouldn’t the conventional distancing scum play be to scum read TW (and not defend TW)? That’s my dilemma right now.

In post 2597, Gustavo wrote:yes I realize what I said earlier. I'm fine with letting him get lynched now. he is either scum or town playing against his win condition.

Nope

EP wrote:
“I think that the most important part to reading keyser right NOW is the fact that he thinks worst is plausibly a genuine PR and I will wait to see worst claim his result and keyser act on it before I make a judgment in that part.”

My thoughts:
I really hope TW is town here (for his own sake ). TW deserved to die D2. His ISO has lacked WIM since D1. The scum meta evidence that Nauci provided D2 wanted me to see his flip even more. But the possibility of him playing out a successful town gambit with a crucial GUILTY investigation has admittedly made me want to give him a second chance. Anything is possible. This doesn’t mean I think he’s towncleared. As I said, false information = insta-lynched.

In post 2615, Not_Mafia wrote:

In post 2597, Gustavo wrote:yes I realize what I said earlier. I'm fine with letting him get lynched now. he is either scum or town playing against his win condition.

Nope

Yes.

Show me something that scum-Not_Mafia couldn’t do.

In post 2613, Errantparabola wrote:I dont even think there's that much analyzable data in every post anyway

Ouch


So I went through a Mom/math/blackvoid triple ISO and before math's replacement here's everything Mom and Mathdino ever said about each other.



Math never mentioned Mom once. I seems somewhat unlikely that math would fail to mention his scum-partner at all, but I also think Mom's thoughts on math are v icky. Not to mention, math clearly thought he would really "show up" at some point, and maybe scum!him was holding off on sharing a Mom read most other players had already done so, at which point he had kinda lurked out and then replaced. Thoughts?

more coming in another post...

In post 2614, Keyser Söze wrote:

In post 2612, Gustavo wrote:I think given the mom scum flip, bernie looks town. mom is basically trying to discredit bernie in that post for his push on the worst. why would mom need to do that if the worst was town?

Yes, Mom was attacking Bernie for going after low hanging fruit (TW).

What does that indicative RE: TW’s alignment... that’s my question...



P.EDIT just read BV’s comment describing it as “normal scum play”. Wouldn’t the conventional distancing scum play be to scum read TW (and not defend TW)? That’s my dilemma right now.

given mom flipped scum, I am now considering tw could be scum.

In post 2615, Not_Mafia wrote:

In post 2597, Gustavo wrote:yes I realize what I said earlier. I'm fine with letting him get lynched now. he is either scum or town playing against his win condition.

Nope

in my opinion you are

RE: Mathdino-Mom associations: Mom was very fence-sittery/flip-floppy on Mathdino, unwilling to give him an early full town read. She ends with a town gut read on Mathdino though, which would have been harder to go against later (so not really seeing it as Mom opening up avenues to later bus her partner). Perhaps by post #513 Mathdino shouldn’t have been that high though. With few interactions/remarks it would be hard to say that this massively helps or goes against the Mathdino slot. I would lean on the good side though if forced to make a judgement (I.e Mom knew Mathdino was town, but didn’t want to broadcast it)

@EP - why do you think TW chose you? (It’d been easier to stir up a wagon/fake a guilty on me or Not Nafia).

Oh, and why did you unvote?
You’re the one person I would have expected to keep their vote on TW... because you should he’s lying... ?