chesskid wrote:But if town does get a scum in a group of 4 they have 3 conftownies, so % goes up
I'm not sure if this is referring to the expected win rate or reality. If it's referring to the expected win rate, I did take that into account (the calculation for that isn't too difficult; just start from 3 groups of 4 players, each with one scum, and branch off the possibilities for each day assuming town goes for the highest percentage chance and scum kills to give town the lowest percentage chance). If it's referring to reality, then I guess it kind of depends on how good those confirmed townies are in the day game, considering scum will just kill them off one-by-one at night.
The advantage town has in this setup vs. reality as compared to 2-10 mountainous is that scum are either forced to choose from a smaller pool of possible kill targets or sacrifice theoretical expected value each night, which could either force scum to play in a theoretically suboptimal way or to allow strong players to live longer. I'm not sure exactly how much that would affect balance and how much the town situation of having to lynch from a certain pool to avoid sacrificing theoretical expected value would counter that. Could be interesting.
I'm not really sure how it would play out. I would probably be willing to play it if it were run.
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As for the other setup, I'm not sure I see the point of executioner. Is it just to get an early shot at recruiting the traitor or does it bypass PGO? It seems like it should be roughly balanced (supposedly a vig balances either 12p or 13p with 3 scum and I forget which). I kind of like the PGO here in that it reduces swing vs putting a vig in the setup, since the only variable with PGO is whether or not it kills scum, instead of whether or not it kills scum and whether or not it kills town.