In post 2671, Best Bird wrote:I find myself aligning more with mena's thoughts than skitter's at this point - and am foregoing my paranoia read that they are both scum batting us around like a cat with a ball of yarn - so consider my vote for dunn.
that would be fun, but is sadly not the case
k i gotta boucne for the weekend, but again don't really vibe dunn!scum. i'll leave it there
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:30 am
by Menalque
I will not push for Dunn’s actual flip until you get back, although I do want that claim now that we have intent
Have a good one! Also agree it would be fun if this was elaborate theatre
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:30 am
by Not_Mafia
In post 2637, davesaz wrote:I'm torn between following two basic principles.
One basic principle is that you don't pressure suspected TPRs because they have greater utility on average than non-PRs. Especially in a game like this, you give them room to operate.
The other basic principle works like "duck typing" in programming. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it's a duck. Someone who isn't scumhunting, especially those making an effort to be present but not scumhunt, are typically scum. My gold standard for this is people either not expressing scumreads, or saying things about alignment opinions but never giving a real reason.
By the TPR principle I'm explicitly against pressuring the top 5-6 draft picks early in the game,
regardless of behavior
. They can be the last elims because the ones left standing are the ones most likely to be scum. If we have a doc we may get lucky and have more no-kill nights, extending the game to the point where a pure mechanical solve is possible. If we have 1-shots that are more useful the smaller the player list gets, we give them room and don't out them so that scum don't know who the real danger is.
By the not scumhunting principle, I'm being pinged by Dunnstral, Something_Smart, and Best Bird. 2/3 of those are especially annoying because people explicitly townread them for things that I would consider to be NAI at best and explicitly scumtells in most players. Not_Mafia will take his slot from a "weird but could be town" read straight to this category. The conflict between this principle and the TPR principle is obviously largest in Dunnstral.
I tend to SR people who don't acknowledge the TPR principle. Hoopla is a prime candidate for this award. I really don't give a shit what the numbers say about scum doubling or not doubling. The TPR principle overrides that. If you don't have an explicit reason to scumread a presumed TPR, you don't yeet them, period. One thing gives me pause here, and that's the "protect via suspecting" strategy. Scum will choose not to NK people that they think are easy miselims. I have to acknowledge that some players purposely "suspect" the players they have identified as likely TPRs so that scum won't kill them as universal town reads.
What this all boils down to is thinking for today (and possibly tomorrow) that we should eliminate either the soft guilty from N1 to rule it out, or an explicitly scummy or not scumhunting player from the later part of the draft. The only scenario that can actually burn us with this strategy is all 3 scum in the early part because they all picked low unique numbers and town got extremely unlucky to not double any of the scum low numbers. I'm not unwilling to eliminate Dunnstral because I can see him playing this way as scum, but I'm concerned about it being too early from a pure mechanical point of view.
tl;dr
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:34 am
by Infinity 324
Mena, thoughts on dave? I keep wanting to TR him for tone but he hasn't really done much towny
In post 2676, Menalque wrote:I will not push for Dunn’s actual flip until you get back, although I do want that claim now that we have intent
Have a good one! Also agree it would be fun if this was elaborate theatre
ty
and you don't need to wait for me, i just said what i was thinking tbh so like whatever
he's probably gonna claim what he softed
idk if i believe it or not but if we're not gonna vote out lilith we can't really vote him out either :shrug:
so let me get this straight: you want to flip lilith, claim be damned, and say that the scumteam could reasonably deduce most roles by now, but oppose the vote on Dunnstral because he crumbed a role?
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:53 pm
by Hoopla
In post 2627, Infinity 324 wrote:Mena, do you know if skitter would be more open minded to lilith!town as town here? I can relate to the idea of knowing how to read someone and trusting your read in them 100%, but if there are other people in the game that also know how to read lilith, it doesn't make a ton of sense to hold on to the read this long right? Idk, we're getting into the problem of people knowing each other's meta better than me, and generally being better scumhunters, but I wanna know if I wrote skitter off as town too early.
this is a problem that seasonal players like me get stuck with since i have so little history with the current player pool. some of my modes of interpreting behaviour seem dated, or at very least, people play very differently now and i find it hard to see the subtleties between say, two hyper-posters, or two shoot-the-breeze one-liner players, so i end up having to trust people with more meta knowledge on what the correct read is for each individual.
the problem with that is, you end up having to trust players who may be scum; the meta being too far removed and obfuscated to really understand the inside knowledge being dropped (even when i go to double-check, i can't sift through 5K-post games efficiently). there's also no real recourse for someone providing false meta reads, as you can always point to, "well they
were
different in town-games X, Y & Z, but shared similarities with scum-game Q. oh well, c'est la vie".
this is partially why i like playing PYP. the mechanics are such an influential aspect of the game, that i can still contribute in meaningful ways even if my scumhunting gets lost at times.
i'm not sure what prompted this post but for some reason it felt necessary.
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:59 pm
by lilith2013
dunn softed??? I thought he was hinting at something else entirely and that’s why I thought he was town.
also yeah, why does dunn get a pass for a soft?
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:59 pm
by lilith2013
I know I have a bunch of outstanding questions and will try to get to them later. @mena primarily
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:00 pm
by Hoopla
my timing is way off with my posts this morning since i know we're supposed to be focused on dunnstral right now, but another question came to mind:
@menalque
whatever happened to your infinity scumread? has that fallen away since you replaced in? you seemed pretty gung-ho about that from what i recall.
either way i'd like an updated read there. i keep to-ing & fro-ing on him. i think he has a creative way with words & concepts and i like his posting style in general. my issue is, i think i tend to positively bias players whose posts i like reading.
plz help.
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:01 pm
by Infinity 324
Hey thanks!
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:03 pm
by Something_Smart
In post 2686, lilith2013 wrote:dunn softed??? I thought he was hinting at something else entirely and that’s why I thought he was town.
also yeah, why does dunn get a pass for a soft?
Probably best to table this discussion until after Dunn claims...
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:04 pm
by Menalque
lilith you’d better be town because if you’re scum then skitt is never gonna let me hear the end of it
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:07 pm
by Menalque
In post 2688, Hoopla wrote:whatever happened to your infinity scumread? has that fallen away since you replaced in? you seemed pretty gung-ho about that from what i recall.
either way i'd like an updated read there. i keep to-ing & fro-ing on him. i think he has a creative way with words & concepts and i like his posting style in general. my issue is, i think i tend to positively bias players whose posts i like reading.
Sorry, I’m afraid I’m not necessarily going to be a lot of help here, I feel conflicted too.
This game is one where I’m really struggling to build solid TRs and if I’m honest these are the types of games where I tend to struggle. Frankly, a lot of my early TRs faded because those people just didn’t like, ~do~ anything, and therefore some of my scumreads came up in my reads. However, my gut is still uneasy about them because hey, they were initial pinging my gut for some reason right? The problem is that I lose the faith in the early TRs but can’t really get it in the newer TRs either
Overall, I think infinity is trying to solve the game at this point. I’m concerned that’s something that he’s only turned on now since he got pressured for it D1. But I’m willing to go with him as town so long as there are other slots I’m more uncomfortable with, which is, at this point, most people
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:12 pm
by Menalque
In post 2627, Infinity 324 wrote:Mena, do you know if skitter would be more open minded to lilith!town as town here? I can relate to the idea of knowing how to read someone and trusting your read in them 100%, but if there are other people in the game that also know how to read lilith, it doesn't make a ton of sense to hold on to the read this long right? Idk, we're getting into the problem of people knowing each other's meta better than me, and generally being better scumhunters, but I wanna know if I wrote skitter off as town too early.
The two people who are probably *best* at reading lili this game are skitt and S_S
They have both been wrong before, I think, but are generally solid there
I’m not sure is the answer to whether town!skitt would be more open to lili!town here, she tends to trust herself so I don’t think it’s that scum indicative for her that she’s sticking to her own reads, however I do dislike that she’s almost ignoring the mechanics side. One thing I need to do before this day is out is evaluate how townie I’d started presenting when lili outed the JK on me, bc if I had already started then I do think it was a really weird thing for scum!lili to do. If I hadn’t started to present as townie (as skitt thinks) then it was a weirder decision to out as either alignment and prob does increase lili’s scum equity
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:15 pm
by Something_Smart
I don't even think I'm that good at reading lilith, honestly. I used to be good at reading her way back when, but her playstyle's changed a lot since then. She fooled me in our first game together and it shot my confidence.
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:15 pm
by Something_Smart
(Our first game together since she came back, that is.)
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:23 pm
by Menalque
Dave is honestly kinda scummy but I know I have a bias there
Lili is scummy on play but townie in claim
Skitt is mostly townie on play but with a couple of significant reservations
S_S is making me feel like he’s town but as far as I can see hasn’t really done any solving, which he’s offered explanations for but which I do think makes him +scum. However, skitt thinks he’s strong town, which does significantly increase the odds he’s town if she is
Dunn has been scummy on play but did make the weird hammer and might be trying a little bit harder to live if scum? But this is all wifom. Mostly scummy, also had two dead town shouting that he’s scum as they died
Best Bird just feels sort of townie still but is someone else I’m becoming more concerned about due to lack of content
Peta felt townie D1 but has also just sort of faded out for me. Has been sporadically making and effort and has looked quite good at those points imo, worth noting that DGB thought he was scum along with me as she died. Notably, felt like his tone this game is more serious compared to the one other game I skimmed him in (can’t remember which)
NM — JV felt townie when I got to chat with him for a while that day, but he’s competent at scum and could have been his scumgame I guess. Don’t remember him being terrible or wonderful before that. Reasonable odds of scum? Prob should be in PoE
Hoopla — is I think solving? Like I haven’t got the scumreads on her for most of the game, but TGP thought she was super scummy, and her sheep onto my wagon I thought was v bad, also seemed to conflict heavily with her “scum are in the singles” thing (although admittedly there’s also a high-ish concentration of scum in the doubles according to her research). Is consistent with her last PyP game in pushing this angle, but also, like peta, feel that her tone is a little off. Leaning town I guess?
There’s another slot here who I’ve forgotten is in the game which is honestly probably +scum for them... and it’s infinity, who I was just saying I think comes across more town today, wonderful. Is at least making an effort, but I guess not enough to register for me. Makes me lowkey uneasy that I couldn’t remember him while going through everyone. Conflicted on him, as mentioned, but probably leaning town for now.
What does that add up to when we read without taking into account my PoEs from VCA:
Skitt
S_S, hoopla, lili
Infinity, peta
Best Bird
NM
Dave
Dunn
There’s also prob 1 scum in (Best Bird, peta, Dave. S_S, skitt)
How does this add up?
If we cross reference the DGB voters with the people who stayed off me D2, who is in both piles
(Best bird, Dave, peta)
There’s also the fact that if there is scum in the 4s it’s (hoopla, NM, best bird) of which I would lean NM, but if it was best bird I think that would spew NM and hoopla town
