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Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:38 pm
by Menalque
this would be a real good time for you to chime in if you're town, S_S
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:42 pm
by Something_Smart
I'm here, though I should be focusing on homework.
I don't really have anything to add, though? What specifically did you want me to comment on?
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:43 pm
by Menalque
pls prod dunn
@S_S like, you were being critical of my assumption that there is at least one scum on the DGB D1 wagon, iirc -- what was that criticism based on? do you think executing Best Bird would potentially be a good idea today based on his presence in the [people who were on DGB] and [people who were not on me] groups, and that his scumflip would townspew two otherwise contested slots?
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:47 pm
by Hoopla
also, just letting everyone know i will be VLA for 24-36 hours. actually i think most of the coming weekends will be like this. i'll try and chime in for dunns claim, but i apologise in advance for my new schedule.
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:48 pm
by Something_Smart
In post 2702, Menalque wrote:@S_S like, you were being critical of my assumption that there is at least one scum on the DGB D1 wagon, iirc -- what was that criticism based on?
I think that most VCA is not very useful (the biggest exception being "there are probably no more than X scum on this wagon") and turns out to be mostly right because of probability and that creates the illusion that it actually tells you something valuable. If all three scum are able to stay off a mis-execution wagon I think most scumteams would be thrilled to take that opportunity.
Statistically, you are probably right that there's at least one scum on the wagon, but you could say the same for any random group of seven players, so I at least am not going to try to draw any conclusions from it.
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:48 pm
by Hoopla
a final comment: i'd be extremely impressed if menalque is ever scum here.
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:49 pm
by Something_Smart
I also don't think Best Birb flipping scum would spew Hoopla town because that's a gambit I can imagine Hoopla pulling, given how insistent she was that it barely ever happens.
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:50 pm
by Dunnstral
I'm not claiming, hammer me.
VOTE: Hoopla
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:51 pm
by Infinity 324
Dunn please
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:51 pm
by petapan
In post 2631, Infinity 324 wrote:Peta why does scum!lilith claim when she does? Also what happens if dunn is town and how likely do you think that is?
if she thinks she can get an elimination out of it and take pressure off her it's basically no risk? it would be unusual but not out of the realm of possibility. if i'm wrong on dunnstral, same as always when you're wrong, pick up the pieces and refocus? i don't like to handicap the chances of my vote flipping scum but atp i'm not as confident in anyone else. the lilith thing is partly, well, someone else has a strong read so i'm willing to follow it but increasingly i find myself not really aligning with skitter's perspective on the game so i'm not even sure about doing that
In post 2637, davesaz wrote:One basic principle is that you don't pressure suspected TPRs because they have greater utility on average than non-PRs. Especially in a game like this, you give them room to operate.
The other basic principle works like "duck typing" in programming. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it's a duck. Someone who isn't scumhunting, especially those making an effort to be present but not scumhunt, are typically scum. My gold standard for this is people either not expressing scumreads, or saying things about alignment opinions but never giving a real reason.
By the TPR principle I'm explicitly against pressuring the top 5-6 draft picks early in the game, regardless of behavior. They can be the last elims because the ones left standing are the ones most likely to be scum. If we have a doc we may get lucky and have more no-kill nights, extending the game to the point where a pure mechanical solve is possible. If we have 1-shots that are more useful the smaller the player list gets, we give them room and don't out them so that scum don't know who the real danger is.
it's super unlikely we have multiple no-kill nights in a row and at any rate it's not that early, it's day 3. if we miss hitting scum today the best thing to do is to have everyone claim tomorrow anyway. i'm not sure how exactly you expect the top slots to resolve themselves?
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:53 pm
by Dunnstral
Alright:
I'm a vanilla townie, I tried to grab the tracker/jailkeeper slot, and that's why I thought Lilith was town from the start/knew mena was blocked
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:54 pm
by petapan
hoopla votes suck ass there's no case there
i think what dunn is doing is a likely towntell but would still policy him out of the game
i have a crackpot theorywith regard to the neighborizer based on probably guesses of who it could be given limited info that might make it scum? but that's resting on several assumptions
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:54 pm
by petapan
UNVOTE:
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:57 pm
by petapan
ehhh dave/JVslot/infinity(???) i find myself uncertain
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:57 pm
by Something_Smart
*blinks*
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:58 pm
by Something_Smart
Was "I'm not claiming" just a blatant lie, or did you change your mind after reading the two posts following it?
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 2:11 pm
by petapan
meh
VOTE: Infinity 324
throwing a dart
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 2:30 pm
by petapan
In post 2706, Something_Smart wrote:I also don't think Best Birb flipping scum would spew Hoopla town because that's a gambit I can imagine Hoopla pulling, given how insistent she was that it barely ever happens.
to wit, she literally has had her teammates do it, in an early, non X/Y PYP. granted, the roleset for that game was weaker than X/Y but i would not rule out her doing it again, although it's debatable whether she'd double up herself rather than leaving it to teammates (but that just leads down the rabbit hole of WIFOM)
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 2:55 pm
by Dunnstral
In post 2715, Something_Smart wrote:Was "I'm not claiming" just a blatant lie, or did you change your mind after reading the two posts following it?
yeah
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 3:39 pm
by Best Bird
In post 2681, davesaz wrote:Since we have a virtual intent here, I'll just prepare to issue a told you so when the claim comes. If I'm wrong then I'll regroup.
In post 2682, skitter30 wrote:
Well since it's out there, i'll just say i spotted this too, and this is the primary reason i'm opposing dunn rn
I explicitlydo not tr him on play
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 3:40 pm
by petapan
in case it is not clear: i don't think he's scum now. let's try elsewhere.
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 3:41 pm
by Menalque
nah I think it's die die time for dunn
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 3:42 pm
by Menalque
In post 2710, Dunnstral wrote:I'm a vanilla townie, I tried to grab the tracker/jailkeeper slot, and that's why I thought Lilith was town from the start/knew mena was blocked
this is a scumclaim lol
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 3:42 pm
by Best Bird
Ok.
*throws a dart*
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 3:44 pm
by Menalque
In post 2706, Something_Smart wrote:I also don't think Best Birb flipping scum would spew Hoopla town because that's a gambit I can imagine Hoopla pulling, given how insistent she was that it barely ever happens.
where did it land?