Page 110 of 117
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 4:47 am
by Kerset
Because i am a paranoid person. If you look at his progression through this whole game, he is extremely correct about everything. He likes to wave between two subjects but in overall D2 was the only place, where he didn't knew the correct choice.
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:18 am
by Adorable
I would rather go for a no lynch. Im not confident wooper will flip scum and if this is a mislynch, then that would mean skitter is scum and I will most likely get mislynched next day and mafia will win. Skitters whole approach in this game reminds me of my scum playstyle and I have been scum reading her. I prefer we no lynch today, skitter invests me tonight and when she clears me it would be skitter versus wooper next day.
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:18 am
by Kerset
Assuming that we lynch wooper and scum kills confirmed townie or skitter
No lynch
skitter dies {
Kerset
,
Suji,
Wooper, Luca, Adorable} >fail> {
Kerset
, Luca, Adorable}
skitter survives {
Kerset
, Skitter, Wooper, Luca,
Adorable
} >fail> {
Kerset
, Skitter, Luca}
Lynch Wooper
skitter dies {
Kerset
,
Suji,
Luca, Adorable}
skitter survives {
Kerset
, Skitter, Luca,
Adorable
}
Lynch Skitter
Suji dies {
Kerset
, Wooper, Luca, Adorable}
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:27 am
by Kerset
In 4th option there is also possibility of skitter scum confirming Adorable but it just confirms luca.
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:39 am
by Kerset
Adorable could you give me your towncase about Luca. You seems to be quite confident there.
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:53 am
by Adorable
In post 2729, Kerset wrote:Adorable could you give me your towncase about Luca. You seems to be quite confident there.
Luca has been wanting to Lynch Billy, last day phase Luca wanted to Lynch sirfetchd instead of skitter and if he was scum he would have went for skitter last day phase and mafia are supposed to work as a team lynching town. Only time scum bus each other is when one of them gets hard scum read by a towny and the other scum will buddy with the towny and bus for the town cred. Scum will also vote each other in the first day phase sometimes.
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:14 am
by Wooper
for posterity I also think skitter has towntold.
no lynch plan is v good
skitter check me tonight imo, creates a dichotomy of either (guilty) {me, skitter}, (inno) {adorbs, skitter}
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:15 am
by Wooper
being in 5p that also means we can lynch the whole dichotomy
if Luca is the only deepwolf prospect I'm a happy duck
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:18 am
by Wooper
actually treating skitter as town she could check me tonight, check adorbs tomorrow night, which either draws the NK onto town!skitter clearing most potential dichotomies or gives us a final dichotomy of {skitter,luca} which are like both very readable
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:19 am
by Wooper
In post 2731, Wooper wrote:for posterity I also think skitter has towntold.
no lynch plan is v good
skitter check me tonight imo, creates a dichotomy of either (guilty) {me, skitter}, (inno) {adorbs, skitter}
I fucked up
skitter check adorbs, then luca
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:25 am
by Kerset
Do you think adorable is most likely to be scum?
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:40 am
by Wooper
More likely than Luca :U
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:58 am
by Kerset
Why do you think that fetch would jail you n1? Or maybe he lied about this? Is it a thing that you are passive during D1 when you are PR? He could block xaya or me, we were shaded and higher then you.
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:20 am
by skitter30
In post 2716, Luca Blight wrote:About to go out but will quickly summarize.
We no-lynch, Skitter investigates Adorable, then we’re left with 5 alive the game is basically solved. Either Skitter tells the truth and we lynch in Adorable/Wooper, if she lies then we lynch her in LYLO. If Skitter is NK then that’s fine as it saves lynching her.
interesting plan
i need to go through all the different permutations and figure out what would be optimal but i think this is a pretty decent idea ^
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:21 am
by skitter30
In post 2720, Luca Blight wrote: In post 2717, Kerset wrote:Do you really think that town!skitter would just survive up to tomorrow? Sounds like 1% chance.
The point is, we don’t know she is Town. If she eats the NK then it’s better than having to lynch her.
If we ML then Skitter could be kept alive for WIFOM reasons, as we’re then in a MYLO situation.
Right now my *gut feeling* is that Wooper is the final scum.
given the ~ruckus~ about me this game i'm honestly not sure i get nk'd here; i think last scum needs me alive to push me as a mislynch
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:21 am
by skitter30
In post 2725, Kerset wrote:Because i am a paranoid person. If you look at his progression through this whole game, he is extremely correct about everything. He likes to wave between two subjects but in overall D2 was the only place, where he didn't knew the correct choice.
is this talking about wooper or luca?
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:23 am
by skitter30
In post 2731, Wooper wrote:for posterity I also think skitter has towntold.
no lynch plan is v good
skitter check me tonight imo, creates a dichotomy of either (guilty) {me, skitter}, (inno) {adorbs, skitter}
no i can't check you, i'd get a guilty no matter your alignment
you're not clearable anymore
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:42 am
by skitter30
ok i need to go through the different permutations of how to play out the rest of the game
givens: 1. kerset and suji are cleared 2. wooper is not clearable
i'm trying to write this from an objective poe, not just mine
-> no lynch today. tonight i check one of {luca/adorable}, probably on adorable since i tr luca more
-- > if i die than tomorrow it's {luca, adorable, suji, kerset, wooper}. not quite on auto but suji and kerset will both be alive and have two shots to find the one scum in {luca, adorable, wooper}
-- > if i live, one of suji/kerset will die presumably.
--- > if i get an inno on adorable than it's just {suji/kerset, adorable, me, wooper, luca}, and we have two days to find scum in {me, wooper, luca}.
--- > if i get a guilty on adorable than it's just gg
-> lynch someone today, using wooper as an concrete example just to make it easeir for me to follow this
-- > if he's scum gg
-- > if he's inno, then someone dies overnight
--- > me, then it's {kerset, suji, luca, adorable}, with kerset and suji deciding between luca and adorable, with two innos and a dichotomy in {luca/adorable}
--- > if it's not me, then i get another result, on one of adorable/luca, probably on adorable since i tr them less, and then are {suji/kerset, luca, adorable, me}, with two innos and a dichotomy in {me/luca}
if i did this right i think if we lynch someone today we force a dichotomy with two innos tomorrow
and if we no lynch we have two days to find one scum in three people
i think it's impossible to get the game fully on auto tho
i think a lot of this depends on which mylo/lylo the clears want to have given that they're ultimately the ones that will have to make the choice
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:42 am
by skitter30
ok i need to go through the different permutations of how to play out the rest of the game
givens: 1. kerset and suji are cleared 2. wooper is not clearable
i'm trying to write this from an objective poe, not just mine
-> no lynch today. tonight i check one of {luca/adorable}, probably on adorable since i tr luca more
-- > if i die than tomorrow it's {luca, adorable, suji, kerset, wooper}. not quite on auto but suji and kerset will both be alive and have two shots to find the one scum in {luca, adorable, wooper}
-- > if i live, one of suji/kerset will die presumably.
--- > if i get an inno on adorable than it's just {suji/kerset, adorable, me, wooper, luca}, and we have two days to find scum in {me, wooper, luca}.
--- > if i get a guilty on adorable than it's just gg
-> lynch someone today, using wooper as an concrete example just to make it easeir for me to follow this
-- > if he's scum gg
-- > if he's inno, then someone dies overnight
--- > me, then it's {kerset, suji, luca, adorable}, with kerset and suji deciding between luca and adorable, with two innos and a dichotomy in {luca/adorable}
--- > if it's not me, then i get another result, on one of adorable/luca, probably on adorable since i tr them less, and then are {suji/kerset, luca, adorable, me}, with two innos and a dichotomy in {me/luca}
if i did this right i think if we lynch someone today we force a dichotomy with two innos tomorrow
and if we no lynch we have two days to find one scum in three people
i think it's impossible to get the game fully on auto tho
i think a lot of this depends on which mylo/lylo the clears want to have given that they're ultimately the ones that will have to make the choice
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:42 am
by skitter30
fuck sorry for the double post
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:45 am
by skitter30
of the three i think it's most likely adorable > wooper > luca rn
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:56 am
by Kerset
In post 2740, skitter30 wrote: In post 2725, Kerset wrote:Because i am a paranoid person. If you look at his progression through this whole game, he is extremely correct about everything. He likes to wave between two subjects but in overall D2 was the only place, where he didn't knew the correct choice.
is this talking about wooper or luca?
luca
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 12:00 pm
by Kerset
Hey skitter did you write 2742, before or after reading 2727?
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 12:03 pm
by skitter30
after; i sometimes need to think through all the possibilities by writing it out myself
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 12:04 pm
by skitter30
In post 2746, Kerset wrote: In post 2740, skitter30 wrote: In post 2725, Kerset wrote:Because i am a paranoid person. If you look at his progression through this whole game, he is extremely correct about everything. He likes to wave between two subjects but in overall D2 was the only place, where he didn't knew the correct choice.
is this talking about wooper or luca?
luca
hey luca how do you feel about bussing?