Mafiascum.net

In post 1884, Roden wrote:

In post 1872, Datisi wrote:

In post 1864, Roden wrote:I think Mena is town.

why?

After reading Mena's ISO and getting a feeling for the game state, I don't think Mena vs Elephant is SvS. Mena switching from "kill STD" to "kill Rella -> Ari" after acknowledging he's the most likely elim today feels like a spew that would be harmful to his scum partner since I don't think it would be either of them in that scenario, which makes me think it's a genuine final reads list from a dying townie. I think their frustration with this Day phase is also genuine. Going back further, though I don't think STD is scum, I do think Mena's case on him came from a solvey mindset.

In post 1872, Datisi wrote:

In post 1865, Roden wrote:

@Datisi:

Where's your head at? VCs aren't telling me anything about what you're thinking, you stuck to one coalition choice Day 1 and currently aren't voting anyone.

i have an iso >.> but basically, thinking mena is town for [meta reasons that seem to not vibe with anyone other than skitter], ari is town for the way she played d1. have been thinking skitter is most likely scum in the coalition for a while (but i've kinda liked her more recent posting i guess??? jury's still out), and getting increasingly nervous about irrel

outside the coalition, thinking fire is town but fuck if i know about the other three -- std is more likely to be town than the other two i guess but i am v low confidence on all of those

I actually did read your ISO, I just wanted an updated take since EoD is approaching and you've been fence sitting.

NK15 feels obvtown to me, he's too confident and tunneled to be scum, and everyone here is competent enough to coach him to not flail with his reads/solves going into Day 2. Fire is null to me only because they didn't seem to have the spotlight at all so far. I agree with STD likely being town, but disagree with your Skitter scum read, consensus nominations tend to be town and nothing in her ISO sticks out as scummy to me.

I've noticed while skimming that a lot of people think there's at least one scum between you and Ari, and while I agree, I think it's odd that no one really seemed to push you two. It's too late in the day to do it now, but you two should've been leading wagons imo, that would've given everyone plenty of info seeing who would push who and if your wagons would naturally dissipate. If you were both town, I believe scum would see you two as the optimal push on Day 2, and if I'm right on NK15 being town then scum likely would've backed him when he scum cased the two of you. I just don't see how there could be zero momentum towards wagoning either of you if you're both town and part of the coalition.

I think I'm going to end up voting Elephant today, I just want to finish going through his ISO first. If I end up town reading him though then idk.

In post 2077, Roden wrote:Oof, I finished going through Elephant's ISO then saw ten more pages crop up and that he replaced out. I came away with a town lean, and after catching up I think his replacement is town. Idk who Bloodhail is an alt of but I like their entrance, and us having similar reads after replacing in feels like a good sign that I'm on the right track.

VOTE: Datisi

Gonna go back and reply to some stuff.

In post 2723, Roden wrote:

In post 2717, Aristeia wrote:

In post 2715, Roden wrote:

In post 2713, Aristeia wrote:how does Datisi's elim clear fire?

The way Fire played it felt unaligned. They added pressure that wasn't necessary if they were partnered, and it wouldn't indicate associatives between them if Fire just voted out Blood. The mad scramble to flip Datisi at the last couple hours shouldn't have happened if the team was Datisi/Fire.

Then again, we're on Day 4 now and it wasn't NK15. Also wasn't Skitter apparently, which I didn't expect since I did town lock her but I don't understand why she was killed.

I don't understand.

Fire didn't vote Datisi until like the last minute when Datisi was at 3 votes[roden, me, std] and BH/Skitter are likely to vote for Datisi, I don't really see how fire voting for Datisi means anything atp.

Because he put Datisi in hammer range instead of just voting out Blood earlier when he had the chance.

In post 2725, Roden wrote:Not sure how this isn't a choice.

In post 2726, Aristeia wrote:1] Putting Datisi in "hammer range" doesn't mean anything because Datisi was at 3 votes and skitter/blood hail had both not voted for Datisi yet, Blood Hail obviously has no issue with voting for Datisi and Skitter had unvoted Blood Hail and I kind of doubt she votes for BH after BH offered to self-vote himself off to resolve the 1v1.

2] "voting out bloodhail when he had the chance"

like blood hail wagon at peak was at 4 [nk15, skitter, mena, datisi] - so 3 flipped townies + datisi!mafia. Which means any partner of Datisi's had the oppurtunity to vote off Blood Hail, it's not really clearing if it's something p much anyone can do?

In post 1986, fireisredsir wrote:hi bloodhail!! good to see u hope you're town

In post 2732, Aristeia wrote:ok so if you're scum and you're nervous he catches you, then what do you do about it?

In post 2726, Aristeia wrote:

In post 2723, Roden wrote:

In post 2717, Aristeia wrote:

In post 2715, Roden wrote:

In post 2713, Aristeia wrote:how does Datisi's elim clear fire?

The way Fire played it felt unaligned. They added pressure that wasn't necessary if they were partnered, and it wouldn't indicate associatives between them if Fire just voted out Blood. The mad scramble to flip Datisi at the last couple hours shouldn't have happened if the team was Datisi/Fire.

Then again, we're on Day 4 now and it wasn't NK15. Also wasn't Skitter apparently, which I didn't expect since I did town lock her but I don't understand why she was killed.

I don't understand.

Fire didn't vote Datisi until like the last minute when Datisi was at 3 votes[roden, me, std] and BH/Skitter are likely to vote for Datisi, I don't really see how fire voting for Datisi means anything atp.

Because he put Datisi in hammer range instead of just voting out Blood earlier when he had the chance.

1] Putting Datisi in "hammer range" doesn't mean anything because Datisi was at 3 votes and skitter/blood hail had both not voted for Datisi yet, Blood Hail obviously has no issue with voting for Datisi and Skitter had unvoted Blood Hail and I kind of doubt she votes for BH after BH offered to self-vote himself off to resolve the 1v1.

2] "voting out bloodhail when he had the chance"

like blood hail wagon at peak was at 4 [nk15, skitter, mena, datisi] - so 3 flipped townies + datisi!mafia. Which means any partner of Datisi's had the oppurtunity to vote off Blood Hail, it's not really clearing if it's something p much anyone can do?

In post 2735, Aristeia wrote:like the way I see the game state there

we're at 3-3 Mena/Irrel

me/datisi/you are not voting

Datisi is aiming to vote Irrel because he has a rock hard townread of Mena chiseled in stone.

You're aiming to vote for Mena because your trajectory is that his confidence is unlike KTane because its not backed up by an actual case.

That's fine for a scumteam of you/dats to do atp because its T v T and you it doesn't matter where I end up voting.

But when bloodhail replaces in, locktowns mena right away and votes Datisi, what are you supposed to do atp? You can't exactly switch sides in the 1v1 off Mena back to Bloodhail to chainsaw for Datisi, you're just kind of awkwardly telling him that Mena is the better elim but you can't really convince him.

In post 2727, fireisredsir wrote:

In post 2725, Roden wrote:Not sure how this isn't a choice.

bc the first one you say you are leaning towards voting irrel, and the second one is after irrel is gone, and bloodhail has come in with a scumread on datisi

the gamestate has changed significantly between those two, and by the point you made the datisi vote, he was likely to die even if bloodhail flipped first (assuming bh town)

at the time you voted datisi, voting irrel was not an option bc irrel was gone

In post 2737, Aristeia wrote:the vote count was

Datisi 3 [Roden, Ari, STD]
Blood Hail 3[Nk15, Datisi, Blood Hail]
Ari 1 [Mena]
Mena 1[Fire]

Not Voting 1 [ Skitter]


I think it's pretty clear skitter/BH could swing to vote off Datisi

voting for BH is dangerous because BH can always unvote and it's unclear where hammer vote on BH comes from.

In post 2738, fireisredsir wrote:i think i (together with datisi, probably) make the decision quickly as to whether bloodhail's read is going to have a lasting impact, aka is datisi going to die at some point now. if yes, then let bloodhail convince me asap so that i can be early on the datisi train. if no, then distract and either go all in to try to lim bloodhail or push elsewhere and don't give in to being convinced by bloodhail

In post 2740, Roden wrote:

In post 2737, Aristeia wrote:the vote count was

Datisi 3 [Roden, Ari, STD]
Blood Hail 3[Nk15, Datisi, Blood Hail]
Ari 1 [Mena]
Mena 1[Fire]

Not Voting 1 [ Skitter]


I think it's pretty clear skitter/BH could swing to vote off Datisi

voting for BH is dangerous because BH can always unvote and it's unclear where hammer vote on BH comes from.

Why does Blood unvote when he self voted to secure that an elim actually happens? He was pushing Datisi harder than anyone and even he didn't think Datisi would get voted out over him.

In post 2741, Aristeia wrote:

In post 2738, fireisredsir wrote:i think i (together with datisi, probably) make the decision quickly as to whether bloodhail's read is going to have a lasting impact, aka is datisi going to die at some point now. if yes, then let bloodhail convince me asap so that i can be early on the datisi train. if no, then distract and either go all in to try to lim bloodhail or push elsewhere and don't give in to being convinced by bloodhail

If you/datisi were capable of making decisions quickly as scum I think you probly elim relly when Mena hardpushes him and you can get them chained rather than wait for the game state to lurch out of your control thru replaceout.

In post 2739, Roden wrote:

In post 2727, fireisredsir wrote:

In post 2725, Roden wrote:Not sure how this isn't a choice.

bc the first one you say you are leaning towards voting irrel, and the second one is after irrel is gone, and bloodhail has come in with a scumread on datisi

the gamestate has changed significantly between those two, and by the point you made the datisi vote, he was likely to die even if bloodhail flipped first (assuming bh town)

at the time you voted datisi, voting irrel was not an option bc irrel was gone

You...realize I played a part in that game state change, right?

Datisi was never going to die without my vote and my reads countering his. It would've just been Blood's single vote against Datisi, which he later backed out of anyway when he self-voted soon after. I think it's completely disingenuous to pretend Datisi was in serious danger before that point.

In post 2743, Aristeia wrote:

In post 2741, Aristeia wrote:

In post 2738, fireisredsir wrote:i think i (together with datisi, probably) make the decision quickly as to whether bloodhail's read is going to have a lasting impact, aka is datisi going to die at some point now. if yes, then let bloodhail convince me asap so that i can be early on the datisi train. if no, then distract and either go all in to try to lim bloodhail or push elsewhere and don't give in to being convinced by bloodhail

If you/datisi were capable of making decisions quickly as scum I think you probly elim relly when Mena hardpushes him and you can get them chained rather than wait for the game state to lurch out of your control thru replaceout.

I guess this isn't fair

a town player ragequitting isn't something forseeable. But Dats does have an issue with being decisive when he needs to be and he tends to wait too long for things. I don't really expect a team of you/him to be able to instantly decide on a strategy as soon as blood hail hits the thread.

I think you were probably disoriented and thinking about how to navigate things.

In post 2744, fireisredsir wrote:

In post 2739, Roden wrote:

In post 2727, fireisredsir wrote:

In post 2725, Roden wrote:Not sure how this isn't a choice.

bc the first one you say you are leaning towards voting irrel, and the second one is after irrel is gone, and bloodhail has come in with a scumread on datisi

the gamestate has changed significantly between those two, and by the point you made the datisi vote, he was likely to die even if bloodhail flipped first (assuming bh town)

at the time you voted datisi, voting irrel was not an option bc irrel was gone

You...realize I played a part in that game state change, right?

Datisi was never going to die without my vote and my reads countering his. It would've just been Blood's single vote against Datisi, which he later backed out of anyway when he self-voted soon after. I think it's completely disingenuous to pretend Datisi was in serious danger before that point.

you realize that my point is not whether datisi was going to die that day, right? ive said that multiple times in multiple contexts. i think that as soon as bloodhail shows up with a scumread on datisi, that datisi was going to die even if bloodhail flipped first. there was enough lingering suspicion on datisi out there for that to be p much a certainty imo. and i think that if datisi + his partner recognized that, it makes sense for them to set up best for elo by having a suspicion on datisi as soon as possible