Mafiascum.net

3. Ausuka - Town Ascetic Miller Mailman

5. Alexcellent - Vanilla Townie
6. JohnnyFarrer - Town Simple Combined Doctor Voyeur


9. Scamper - Vanilla Townie

12. Marcistar - Vanilla Townie
13. Gamma Emerald - Vanilla Townie

I'm kind of starting to lean towards Johnny's claim maybe being legit. On play alone I don't trust him but I think the flips and kills probably point to him being more likely on the level?

I can see remaining mafia probably just being goons. Look at Corwin, look at that shit. BULLETPROOF JAILKEEPER NEIGHBOUR. Like his role is weakened by being a traitor but the rest of those roles are so strong for mafia to have. If rest of mafia is goons, it pretty well suggests that remaining scum are in the VT claims. It also checks out why Datisi is killed - it's someone Johnny can't protect/voyeur. It doesn't reeeeally explain why Ausuka wasn't killed because tbh I was fully expecting her to not be here today. But Datisi was pretty keen on Marci being scum. Like Occam's Razor I guess says it's Marci/Gamma but that does seem very easy.

Datisi could only kill scum PR -- but he couldn't kill Corwin if he were still around because of the bulletproof, which may have given Datisi a false clear on him. Datisi could really only use his role to give very soft clears on people being vanilla or not. That seems very weak and more weighted towards helping scum than town.
StD could kill mafia goons or VTs, and kind of confirm somewhat if someone's a PR. I guess in theory slightly more useful to town than Datisi's role but still not great.
Ascetic Miller is useless, the mailman can maybe help? But Ausuka couldn't really have turned up a result for Roden if he had investigated her.
Bella's role limited her to visiting Datisi, Johnny (if he's telling the truth), Corwin, StD, Roden and I think Freedom? If there is another scum PR, then them too. But idk.
Roden could only use traffic analyst role to track goons. Like if he used it on Ausuka it'd have been useless right? Because of her being ascetic miller - am I understanding that correctly? And there would been no purpose to him using it on Corwin given that he knew Corwin was a neighbour. I think that again points to the remaining scum being goons rather than PRs otherwise we just have a bunch of mostly useless power roles - which I guess again makes it more likely that Johnny's claim is genuine.

I think from my point of view the scum team is in Marci/Gamma/Scamper -- and it's very hard for me to see scum!Scamper based on how Corwin acted towards him.

I actually don't know if my logic is sound, I probably need smarter people to weigh in.
I instinctively don't want to trust Johnny and I'll be just very, very irked if scum!Johnny wins this, but I think the setup suggests that he's legit.

I think your logic is sound but like I wasn't thinking about the setup because I have zero confidence in my ability to setup spec

I sometimes make setups and show them to datisi and usually he's just like "lmao this is scumsided"

Also probably I wasn't killed because I am bad at mafia lol

In post 2725, Alexcellent wrote:Like if he used it on Ausuka it'd have been useless right? Because of her being ascetic miller - am I understanding that correctly?

It actually would have been triple useless! Because I'm ascetic I can't be targeted, because I'm not vanilla he couldn't target me, and because I'm a mailman even if he could the result would have been useless

I agree whether the mafia are goons or not substantially changes the balance of the game. I guess I find it hard to see pooky using the role mafia goon which makes Johnny more likely to be town lol

In post 2721, marcistar wrote:i dont get why anyone could think im scum here

In post 2722, marcistar wrote:and that post, is actually serious

I mean I know Marci just does the bravado thing anyway but the insistence this is serious makes it feel fake?

I was going to ask what you think of that about Marci post.

I do think of Johnny is actually the doc then that very likely makes Marci scum IMO.

I mean same just by poe

Maybe I wouldn't say very likely because how can I be confident of anything in this game but I couldn't really see myself voting outside those two if I'm alive tomorrow

Unless my reread changes things but I've already reread so I don't see why it would

I mean maybe it will it's just not super likely, I think I'm pretty much never going to end up townreading Marci here

Also I mean, town are now confirmed to have 2 vigs, also against (presumably) 3 scum. The idea that we wouldn't have at least one protective role of some kind against that many potential kills seems unlikely.

I hate this but I think I've talked myself into believing in town!Johnny

Town power is presumably we have 3 confirmable roles and vig power

I think the setup works without him if the mafia are all goons although I do see your point that Pooky would probably hate to use goon instead of mafia multitasking 6 shot combined visitor bodyguard

Oh I just realised it's actually worth doing analysis tonight because I can send someone my results, cool

I mean I guess the mafia JK can work in town favour accidentally as well, so I don't know. I need to stop pretending I know anything about game balance.

But I am thinking Johnny is probably for real, and I don't think I see myself voting for anything that isn't a no elim or a marci elim.

I'm almost definitely going for a no elimination today

Like I talk about scumreading marci and I do but it's not strong enough to not make the optimal play here

I am also garbage at setup spec but I will say this is the most useless I've felt as doc maybe ever. Like, maybe I could test a VT claim or something? Idk

I think I'm pretty much betting the game on scamper/Ausuka town here. I'm just stuck on the rest.

I really just don't wanna lose to like Gamma/Alex here if Marci isn't scum. Both have seemed like the right vote at different points this game.

Ima go look at votes brb

Ugh the thing is whenever Johnny actually posts I like it but I don't know if I'm just being stupid and easily manipulated

Posting this as I go in case I run out of spoons

Just going by the VCs on d1

Gamma/Alex is a possibility, both are absent for significant parts of the day, they spend very little time on the same wagons ever. Gamma vote Alex really early for a minute, tho. Hmmmm

Marci/Alex is unlikely, Alex votes Marci and stays there for several days, Marci literally stays on Dats all day

Gamma/Marci I guess could work, like gamma/alex they aren't ever in the same place, but those two hydra together and I would expect more.... energy from both? If they were scum together? Is that wild to think?

D2 VCs are short and unreliable. The only serious wagons seem to be the one on me and the one on Bella, not a lot to analyze there. Worth noting that Alex and Gamma were both on me

Aaaaand D3 features Gamma and Marci voting each other. I fully don't believe those two are on a team.

This means I'm back where I started, Alex is scum with either Marci or Gamma. Gotta be.

I find it difficult to see scum Alex here?? Like maybe I'm being dumb like

Ok let's say you're Alex. You're scum with idk let's say Marci. Ausuka comes in saying that the team is Marci and Johnny which would be a pretty easy line for scum Alex to follow I think. Do you immediately go and towncase Johnny and instead go after Gamma

Idk I guess he just feels like town to me

Personally I tend to assume scum bus and vote each other habitually

Yeah but Gamma and Marci were so lifeless about it yesterday. Like, those two are familiar with each other, I can't imagine them voting each other in such a boring way if they were scum

Johnny pls. I'm trying so hard to TR you, and I thiiiink I probably have been wrong about you but that is a bad take

Do you actually think scum wouldn't bus each other on D3?

P-edit: ^

I guess I could buy Marci being nervous in that kind of theatrical role.... idk I don't know them too well