239: Espionage Mafia- Game over!


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Post Post #275 (ISO) » Sun Dec 11, 2005 10:56 am

Post by armlx »

Mastermind of Sin wrote: if we lynch armlx first, at best we kill an SK, at worst we kill a one-shot vig. If you kill me, at best you kill a mafia/sk, and at worst you kill a protown player with unknown ability at this time.
Ok. Our doc and cop are both dead, along with potentially the main vig (I'ld assume Spork was, with a liscense to kill....). I don't really see a role where losing it would be worse then losing a 1 shot vig at this point, especially since you can't claim. RB is the only thing I can think of that would be alive, and that has a 50/50 chance of leaving the game 2-1-1 (forcing a Prisoner's Dilema), whereas I have 50/50 (assuming nothing tricky) of leaving the game 2-1 (forcing a lynch or lose). I would rather gamble with the person who "can't claim" on top of that. I know MoS is the right choice in this WIFOM, but the only way I can get this across to everyone else is simple numbers.
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Post Post #276 (ISO) » Sun Dec 11, 2005 12:08 pm

Post by mlaker »

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Post Post #277 (ISO) » Sun Dec 11, 2005 5:42 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

armlx wrote:
Mastermind of Sin wrote: if we lynch armlx first, at best we kill an SK, at worst we kill a one-shot vig. If you kill me, at best you kill a mafia/sk, and at worst you kill a protown player with unknown ability at this time.
Ok. Our doc and cop are both dead, along with potentially the main vig (I'ld assume Spork was, with a liscense to kill....). I don't really see a role where losing it would be worse then losing a 1 shot vig at this point, especially since you can't claim. RB is the only thing I can think of that would be alive, and that has a 50/50 chance of leaving the game 2-1-1 (forcing a Prisoner's Dilema), whereas I have 50/50 (assuming nothing tricky) of leaving the game 2-1 (forcing a lynch or lose). I would rather gamble with the person who "can't claim" on top of that. I know MoS is the right choice in this WIFOM, but the only way I can get this across to everyone else is simple numbers.
since you aren't even protown by your own admission, we can't even trust you to try and kill scum. you'll just kill of the protown people and claim the win. How is that going to help us? According to your claim, you're a neutral of some sort, which means you can win with scum just as easily as with the town. What assurance do we have that you won't betray us ftw?
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Post Post #278 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2005 12:10 am

Post by VisMaior »

Now what...
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Post Post #279 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2005 7:01 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

*shrug*
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Post Post #280 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2005 9:59 am

Post by armlx »

MoS: The reason is because I have is lynching a scum (you) > lynching a neutral (me) for the town. Plus, if I am right, I become pro-town once you die. I also have no reads on anyone except you, so everything I do would be random. Plus being alive at the end of the game is so cool and lynching the townie would kill me technically :-p.

I also screwed up the numbers on my last post. I forgot to add my night kill to the kill, therefore the odds are more complicated and I can't really figure them out. It involves me over lapping kills with a scum potentially, not using my ability, etc....
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Post Post #281 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2005 10:18 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

armlx wrote:MoS: The reason is because I have is lynching a scum (you) > lynching a neutral (me) for the town. Plus, if I am right, I become pro-town once you die. I also have no reads on anyone except you, so everything I do would be random. Plus being alive at the end of the game is so cool and lynching the townie would kill me technically :-p.

I also screwed up the numbers on my last post. I forgot to add my night kill to the kill, therefore the odds are more complicated and I can't really figure them out. It involves me over lapping kills with a scum potentially, not using my ability, etc....
and for me I have lynching a scum (you) > lynching a protown player (me). the chance at saving a neutral killer isn't something that should be top priority for the protown players here, imo. If it is, something is really wrong with you.
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Post Post #282 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2005 10:22 am

Post by armlx »

I just had an idea.

Would anyone else think a mass claim would be good at this point? It seems like with the roles so far it would be easy to single out a fake claim.
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Post Post #283 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2005 10:23 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

lol, I don't think anyone but the three of us are even watching the thread anymore...
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Post Post #284 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2005 10:24 am

Post by zu_Faul »

Wrong. Just I am tired. I'll answer tomorrow, I'll promise
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Post Post #285 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2005 10:25 am

Post by zu_Faul »

Unvote

Just to be sure
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Post Post #286 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2005 11:18 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

kk, that makes 4 of us, thanks for letting me know, no real hurry that I know of, just post when you can.
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Post Post #287 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2005 12:05 pm

Post by mlaker »

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MoS- 2 (Armlx, darquiel)
Armlx- 2 (Vismaior, MoS)
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Post Post #288 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2005 1:16 pm

Post by armlx »

That leaves Darquiel and Stewie....
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Post Post #289 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2005 2:24 pm

Post by Stewie »

Vote: mos


Reasons:
-It's win-win. If he's not scum then we can lynch armlx tomorrow.
-I have reasons to believe armlx, most of them are based on his behaviour since day one.
-I don't trust mos, and nothing he said made me change my mind.
-I fell, and I don't feel like thinking much. :)
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Post Post #290 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2005 2:40 pm

Post by armlx »

So no one agrees with a mass claim. Meh, I guess I put it out there.
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Post Post #291 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2005 3:03 pm

Post by armlx »

Oh, and darquiel isn't posting in Civ. Mafia (another game I am in). Could we possibly get a prod/replacement there?
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Post Post #292 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2005 3:55 pm

Post by Stewie »

I don't mind a massclaim, but I think that now is not the time for it. There's 6 people left, and probably only one scum. We are in a good enough position to wait another day, IMO.
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Post Post #293 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2005 6:52 pm

Post by VisMaior »

It's win-win. If he's not scum then we can lynch armlx tomorrow.
Except if we lynch protown today, there is only 1 protown player tomorrow... So no win for town...
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Post Post #294 (ISO) » Tue Dec 13, 2005 4:16 am

Post by zu_Faul »

Mod
Please update the first Post. This makes things much clearer, I think.

I will
Vote: armlx
although this gives us a tie. I think we have come to the conclusion that at least one of them is scum, at least do we think this at the moment. We don't know what night will bring. But for now I'd rather lynch armlx. It is too unsure he really is on our side. He is a killer.
Except if we lynch protown today, there is only 1 protown player tomorrow... So no win for town...
If scum doesn't kill each other.. which isn't that unlikely.
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Post Post #295 (ISO) » Tue Dec 13, 2005 4:20 am

Post by VisMaior »

Hm, I expressed my belief that hey could be recruits. As in, wichever kills the other one, is becoming the side he is associated with. That means they cannot be actually scum...
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Post Post #296 (ISO) » Tue Dec 13, 2005 5:00 am

Post by zu_Faul »

Huh?
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Post Post #297 (ISO) » Tue Dec 13, 2005 9:48 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Stewie wrote:
Vote: mos


Reasons:
-It's win-win. If he's not scum then we can lynch armlx tomorrow.
-I have reasons to believe armlx, most of them are based on his behaviour since day one.
-I don't trust mos, and nothing he said made me change my mind.
-I fell, and I don't feel like thinking much. :)
It's not win-win because I'll be DEAD.
I have reasons to not trust armlx, based on his behavior since day one which has caused me to vote him repeatedly
I'm starting to not trust stewie because of his single-mindedness and his complete ignorance regarding armlx's behavior
I hope you feel better, Stewie.
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Post Post #298 (ISO) » Tue Dec 13, 2005 10:09 am

Post by armlx »

Stewie- How probably only one scum? There were 2 kills last night, and there probably is a 3 man mafia so theres an SK and Mafia left most likely....
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Post Post #299 (ISO) » Tue Dec 13, 2005 10:24 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

zu_Faul wrote:Huh?
agreed
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