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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2015 6:15 pm
by Dierfire
↑ Mathilda wrote: ↑ Dierfire wrote:I sort of already answered this, but I want it noted: I agree that Necargo's behavior is suspicious but I'd still rather see Honest's slot (Mathilda now) flip first.
Any particular reasons why or are you just going to cast suspicion on one slot? I can see why you'd be suspicious of Honest. He didn't say much. He didn't justify himself. He basically floundered. But I have been trying to actively hunt scum. I'm not just trying to appear to hunt scum.
I want to see you flip first because I think that, on aggregate, your slot is more suspicious than Necargo's. Were you looking for reasons why I found you suspicious beyond just replacing Honest? Those are in the next post that you yourself quoted.
↑ Mathilda wrote: ↑ Dierfire wrote:@Mathilda
I find your stated justification for suspecting Yuriko (because she has been light on content) to be troubling coming from your slot. Your
205 sounded less confident than you do now, and your posts between have primarily concerned arguing against a proposal for a policy lynch that actually didn't get much traction. What has caused the change in your read? Also, what is the basis of your reads on Necargo and Draynth?
You say it is troubling but don't say why. This could be seen as a way of making someone seem suspicious by colouring other people's opinions without giving any particular justification.
Perhaps the progression was unclear here. It is suspicious for you to claim to suspect Yuriko based on a lack of content because Honest was also light on content (as you acknowledge). If you received a PM saying that you are Town, then you'd know that Honest's posting came from Town, and you'd know better than to center your suspicion on a simple lack of content. The rest of
219 is vague, so I'm assuming that you didn't have anything more specific or convincing to say.
It's natural to start off sceptical, to then gather more evidence over time and start to form a more concrete opinion. That happens when you gather evidence. I do not see why it is troubling to suspect someone because they are light on content. Honest may have been light on content but I have not. Yuriko has been light on content but now she's posted
#229 where she has actually put out a read list and put forward conjectures that we can evaluate, so that helps swing her a little more townwards.
I don't have any confidence in any of my reads. I'm a scientist in real life and I prefer to be more sure of my conclusions. It's also a profession where you have to constantly question yourself. I have seen people perform McCarthy style witch hunts in this game. Someone does something that could be construed as slightly scummy, another player then looks for more evidence but without taking into account their own confirmation bias. By the end of the day phase everything that the player does or says is construed as being scummy regardless of whether it contradicts previous accusations, they get lynched and flip town.
These two paragraphs feel off to me. Much of this seems to be fluff to me, and it seems to be used to obscure an answer to the question (why did the read on Yuriko change in the few hours between
205 and
219?) or at least to answer a different question than the one that I asked. I didn't ask why reads might change in general--I asked why your read on Yuriko had changed (grown more confident).
Yes I did instinctively argue against a policy lynch. But if you notice, after thinking through all the reasons why some newbies may quit,
iff
lowercase is right (and I don't know that he is but he seems sure that the stats show policy lynches of newbie replacements show a slight tendency to hitting scum) then I have only ever argued using this as further evidence for lynching someone. Not as a reason in itself to lynch someone. I have not changed my mind on this. Are you accusing me of fluffing by talking about general game mechanics with regard to policy lynches? If so then my answer to this is that I am concerned that by only considering a subset of slots that we may be ignoring more salient data that can be gleaned from this game.
You are correct--I'm saying that you were arguing against a policy lynch that will not happen when you could have been discussing a lynch that will happen. Even the characterization of Lowercase's proposal as a policy lynch is a little misleading, because his proposal (
141) was more specific than just "a lurker" (he mentioned DWL and Zero), but you chose not to address his reasoning for those two players.
As for the basis of my reads on Draynth and Necargo. The general impression that I have is that Draynth is actively scum hunting whereas necargoface is not. Yes, people keep coming back to the whole RV business, but that doesn't mean to say that you can't move the topic on by yourself and start questioning other people.
In the absence of any contradictions or anything overtly scummy, I'm basing my reads on how actively people seem to be scum hunting. Do they look like they are trying to figure it out? Do they look like scum trying to give the appearance of scum hunting by questioning everything and not putting their necks on the line? Can you suggest anything else I could be doing to hunt scum? I would be happy to hear any suggestions that you may have.
I was hoping for more specific things--basing reads on "general impressions" makes it harder to evaluate their authenticity.
Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2015 6:27 pm
by Dierfire
@BBT
↑ BlueBloodedToffee wrote:Dier, I don't believe you got around to looking at Yuri's scummy posting; can you do so now?
I did look at it; that's why I wanted to ask her some more questions in
195. Her answers were not great, particularly her not-really-a-read on Gratuitous in
229. From earlier, I thought that
149 and the follow-up (
157) felt off and she never really answered why she thought that DWL would be Mafia.
She's no longer near the top of my list. I think that ranking her near Necargo in terms of suspicion is appropriate.
Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2015 6:40 pm
by Dierfire
I see from the recent posts that DWL is at L-1 and Lowercase has preemptively stated intent. I think that the lynch is fairly good--my preferred alternative would be Mathilda and I'd be willing to compromise on Yuriko or Necargo.
Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2015 6:45 pm
by Dierfire
@All
As previously mentioned, I have limited access for the next two days. We have some time before the deadline so I'd prefer that the lynch wait until I get back unless it's clear that there's nothing more to say.
Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2015 9:03 pm
by Mathilda
↑ Dierfire wrote:
Perhaps the progression was unclear here. It is suspicious for you to claim to suspect Yuriko based on a lack of content because Honest was also light on content (as you acknowledge). If you received a PM saying that you are Town, then you'd know that Honest's posting came from Town, and you'd know better than to center your suspicion on a simple lack of content. The rest of
219 is vague, so I'm assuming that you didn't have anything more specific or convincing to say.
But Honest and Yuriko were very different in their posting styles. Honest didn't post much at all whereas Yuriko has posted a lot. But Yuriko has not posted much that is informative. That is what I mean by content light. You can have lots of data but very little information.
I recognise that no matter what I say to you, it will only confirm in your mind that I am scum. You are one of these players that once they come to a conclusion they stick with it until they are proven wrong because of a flip. You appear to suffer from confirmation bias.
Ask yourself this. Is there anything I can do in this game now to convince you that I am indeed town? Try to imagine what that would be.
It amuses me to know that if you do manage to get a successful lynch wagon on me that you will be the next to be lynched. I know that because I know that I am town and you have been the one who has fixated on this slot to a greater degree than any other player in this game.
Now your reaction to this will be interesting. Do you back off? If so then this makes you look like scum wanting to stay alive. But knowing this as scum you'd have to continue down your dangerous course and bringing a lynch upon yourself. And if you're town, well maybe you need to start looking at the bigger picture and helping us all out.
Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2015 11:55 pm
by YurikoJasmine
^total AtE
Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2015 11:58 pm
by YurikoJasmine
Plus the way Mathilda puts the scum assumption forward, though she scum reads dwlee and necargoface strucks me a bit
Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2015 1:18 am
by Mathilda
↑ YurikoJasmine wrote:Plus the way Mathilda puts the scum assumption forward, though she scum reads dwlee and necargoface strucks me a bit
I never said Dierfire was scum, but nor do I know that he isn't. His confirmation bias suggests to me that he is town though because scum would be more opportunistic. But then he has been trying to paint a general impression about me rather than come up with anything concrete so he if was scum then it would probably be because he thought that he was being more subtle than he actually was.
I'm not so sure now about necargoface now and that's purely because of the second replacement. I have a theory that I don't particularly want to share at this point in time and if true it would mean that the necargoface slot is town.
At the moment the only person I am prepared to vote for is dwlee.
Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2015 1:26 am
by Mathilda
This wasn't a total appeal to emotion:
↑ Mathilda wrote:
But Honest and Yuriko were very different in their posting styles. Honest didn't post much at all whereas Yuriko has posted a lot. But Yuriko has not posted much that is informative. That is what I mean by content light. You can have lots of data but very little information.
The rest of my post
was
an appeal to emotion and works if Direfire is scum. It's not in our interests to lynch town today. If Dierfire is town then I need to appeal to emotion because his investigation is being driven by emotion.
I want to make it clear to everyone that if I get lynched that you all then need to lynch Dierfire when I flip Town.
Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2015 1:32 am
by Mathilda
Sorry scrap that last sentence. If Dierfire is town and driven by emotion then it won't help to lynch him either. I was having a brain fart at that point because I got distracted at work.
Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2015 1:41 am
by YurikoJasmine
I'm just pretty amused by the fact that you put the scum assumption before the town assumption
Also you do realize stating willingness to vote dwlee only is quite a safe harbor given he's at l-1 with lowercase stated his intent to hammer already
Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2015 1:46 am
by YurikoJasmine
There's a question mark missing in that last sentence
Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2015 1:55 am
by Mathilda
↑ YurikoJasmine wrote:I'm just pretty amused by the fact that you put the scum assumption before the town assumption
Also you do realize stating willingness to vote dwlee only is quite a safe harbor given he's at l-1 with lowercase stated his intent to hammer already
I voted for dwlee when he wasn't at L-1. I also stated earlier that I hadn't looked at his posts. Then when I did look at his posts more carefully (at the same time I went through looking at Dierfire's posts) I decided to then vote for him. BBT asked why I hadn't voted for him and I said that I wasn't sure what the current vote count was and didn't want to accidentally cause a ban hammer without consensus from everyone else first or a proper defense from dwlee.
Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2015 2:00 am
by YurikoJasmine
And the more you ask me to not think about it [p-edit: that if you get lynched dire should get lynched] the more I'm thinking about it and it makes you look worse and worse. Will have to go back and review my views on you. The fact that once the dwlee lynch went almost certain you start to relax and sit back makes me super uneasy. Then go the paranoid "if I get lynched" statement when no one except dire was pushing you.
P-edit: that's not my point. My point is that once it got likely that dwlee would be lunch you sit back and enjoy yourself. If necargoface isn't your scumread now who is?
Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2015 2:16 am
by Mathilda
I realise that I am playing slightly scummy right now and I certainly wouldn't be doing that if I was Scum. But if Dierface is town then we need him considering other people as well rather than just me and shaddowez / necargoface's slot. I don't want to spend all my time having to defend myself from someone fixated on me when I could be scum hunting.
dwlee is my only scum read at the moment. You and Dierface are neutral. Everyone else is town in my ever fluctuating opinion. I may be wrong about shaddowez / necargoface but I am sticking with my hypothesis for now, especially in light of shaddowez's introductory posts. Also necargoface's posts when he greeted me to the thread. He seemed genuinely pleased that we had new active players in the thread.
Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2015 5:26 am
by Dwlee99
↑ Lowercase wrote: ↑ BlueBloodedToffee wrote:Usually, I don't think replacing out is alignment indicative but I
really
don't like the timing of that one.
I knew you'd come around someday. Also I agree that that was pretty bad timing.
In response to your questions in
235:
I don't feel like [some post] fits in with [some other post]. Is your read changing on Yuri? If so, why?
My main gripe with Yuri early on was a combination of the 'RV' push and the post in which she asked ZS 'why do you think people are voting you?' The first because it was a silly reason and the second because it was a silly question. Had she continued doing things I thought were silly wastes of time I would have scum-read her more strongly, but she didn't. The only other thing I thought was worth mentioning was that her lee vote seemed like an attempt to redirect attention, but that was a meh reason even when I pointed it out.
Lowercase wrote:The other things she did make about as much sense as either alignment, so I see why scum would do them, but I don't really see why town wouldn't.
Wording has caught my attention here; can you also see Yuri doing those things as town?
Yes? The thing you're pointing out is not a wording issue. You correctly understood what I was saying there.
No, what you're doing is speculating on why Zero replaced out and then using your speculation as reasoning for why that slot is scum.
I doubt you have a better way of finding scum day one than speculating reasons as to why person X did thing Y.
@dwlee: ftr, OMGUS is voting someone
because
they voted/suspected you. Had she voted you shortly after your first post or cited your suspicion as a reason, you might be correct in stating that she OMGUS'd you.
Once dwlee reaches L-1 I'll declare intent to hammer.
Omgus'ing is when you vote for someone suspecting you. It's not always voting because someone else voted.
Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2015 5:36 am
by YurikoJasmine
And why does it matter more than actually scumhunting?
Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2015 8:13 am
by Dwlee99
↑ YurikoJasmine wrote:And why does it matter more than actually scumhunting?
I did scumhunt, you're the scum. >.<
Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2015 10:41 am
by Draynth
PS. Guys I'll be V/LA from tomorrow until Sunday evening. I should be able to post once or twice over the next few days but if not I sincerely apologies, I'll get back to show my face ASAP.
Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2015 10:51 am
by Gratuitous
@Yuriko #269: I still believe what I said in #223 about you & dwlee being unaligned. I generally haven't had much luck with team-hunting in the past, so will decline to attempt it at this moment.
Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2015 12:06 pm
by YurikoJasmine
↑ Gratuitous wrote:@Yuriko #269: I still believe what I said in #223 about you & dwlee being unaligned. I generally haven't had much luck with team-hunting in the past, so will decline to attempt it at this moment.
And so although you think I'm not scum together with dwlee you scumread both of us?
Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2015 12:08 pm
by YurikoJasmine
...And town read everyone else?
My question is basically "if only one of dwlee/ myself is scum, there must be at least a third person is scum. Who is him/ are they?"
Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2015 12:11 pm
by YurikoJasmine
↑ Dwlee99 wrote: ↑ YurikoJasmine wrote:And why does it matter more than actually scumhunting?
I did scumhunt, you're the scum. >.<
/meh is this newb or what
Ok, ASSUME I did OMGUS you (which I didn't but just assume so for the sake of argument here)
Is this the only reason you think I am scum?
if I were scum, who is the other scum and why?
Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2015 12:19 pm
by shaddowez
@Yuri:
At this point we know that dwlee is tunneling on you as scum, and isn't providing much more information. What do you hope to gain from continuing to humor him and keeping in this cycle of no information?
It also appears that dwlee is showing large amounts of confbias towards Yuri, which points to one of two options IMO:
1) He's newbscum who knows Yuri is town and is trying to get an early kill in on somebody who drew a lot of suspicion
2) He's town that tunnels, regardless of alignment.
@dwlee:
We know there's 2 scum, so rather than get hung up on what may or may not have been an OMGUS vote, why don't you provide more in-depth reasoning on why you think Yuri is scum, and also who you think the other scum may be? Also, do you have other games, specifically where you're town, that you could point us towards to see if you tunnel like this regularly?
P-Edit:
Looks like Yuri beat me to the punch on some of my points.
Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2015 12:21 pm
by shaddowez
↑ Mathilda wrote:It's not in our interests to lynch town today
Out of curiosity, when is it in our interest to lynch town?