Micro 831: Great Idea Mafia (Game Over)

[KittenLicks]

I know people say that setup spec is a scummy thing to do, but frankly, this setup is confusing and I don't think we're all on the same page as to how it works. I think, at this moment, it is better to get some facts out, so we don't argue in circles.

What we

know

:

• There are at least 4 town. Currently, this means at least 2 of the 6 living players are town.
  There are no Replicants, but there may be Aliens.
  Aliens only get one night kill
  per game
  .
  All the rolecards seem to say "May kill one person each night". The "may" seems to imply that it is not compulsive, so a Serial Killer or Mafia may have chosen to simply not kill last night. I think this would be an odd decision, given a werewolf died, but it's possible.

Looking at these facts, there are a few ways there could be two kills tonight. There could be an Alien Kill. And there's a Mafia dayvig on that list.

That being said, we're all worried about lylo and mylo, where for all we know, we might be outnumbered already, and the only reason we're afloat is that the scumteams don't know that yet. I've kind of changed my mind, I think we should lynch today.

[Simeon]

because day 1 was a bucket full of null, and I needed a name, and the only person I felt had done anything of note was Micc pushing a policy on a role, so i investigated him

wtf. Shouldn't you have checked the ones not on the Tazaro wagon? since Tazaro flipped wolf?

Multi ball. Wagon analysis is useless this game buddy

Really? Multi ball doesn't mean you always wagon your partner, right?

multi ball means there might not BE any partners. We could have 3 1 man scum teams.

mafia/werewolf/replecant/alien/serial killer/cult.

How would knowing who lynched the werewolf matter if there is only one werewolf and there is also an alien and a mafia? by VCA reasoning the alien and the mafia could appear perfectly towny, and lynch the werewolf with the town, thinking he was town.

VCA is useless in great/er/est/grand idea

You're confusing the issue. You say you are a SEER. It's supposed to be your job then to look for another werewolf.

Other alignments don't matter right now let's ignore them for a bit.

It is true that town have no ideas on the scumteams, town could possibly be against a one man werewolf team and other non town-aligned roles, but your role as a seer is to look for another werewolf.

so I'm asking why did you investigate the guy who voted out the werewolf yesterday?

[KittenLicks]

I think Simeon is making a really good point here. If you go into night thinking "I need to find a werewolf, if there is one" your first choice really shouldn't be "the people that just lynched a werewolf".

[Bicephalous Bob]

I'm a treestump

the vote resets if I stump myself, but the deadline continues as normal, in case anyone finds a way to use this in a breaking strategy

[Bicephalous Bob]

I think/hope the remaining scum are in maru/simeon. Dave's concerns about the massclaim seemed genuine. If he doesn't want to claim, I'm cool with that. He's last in order anyway, so fakeclaiming would be pretty simple.

[Micc]

If he doesn't want to claim, I'm cool with that. He's last in order anyway, so fakeclaiming would be pretty simple.

Agreeing with this.

I'm hesitant to vote because potential mylo, but consider me voting Maruchan. Not moving it until he gives some kind of indication of who he's scum reading or where his head is at.

[davesaz]

Town lover. Looks like nothing confirmable in the game. Maru is my highest suspect atm.

[KittenLicks]

Town is probably weak in this game, with two somewhat believable claimed neg utils. In any case, scum should hunt for scum with their nightkill in this setup (if you don't believe me, look at old runs and check the strategy of winning scum teams)

Bob's claim kind of checks out, given he said this on Day 1. Not to mention, we're all worrying about if we should lynch someone or not today, and I think it'd be a little suicidal as scum to say "Hey I'm a Tree stump" in that atmosphere. What if we just decide to try to force him to stump himself? Bob is either Town, or has the bravery of a lion. A very negative utility lion.

People I don't want to lynch today:
Bob
Simeon

I don't think I have a preference in the remaining 3. I don't like the night logic by Maru, but... given Maru's general lack of effort in this game I don't know if I'm willing to point to that as scummy. I

can

see Maru just picking someone at random, as a town seer.

[Maruchan]

because day 1 was a bucket full of null, and I needed a name, and the only person I felt had done anything of note was Micc pushing a policy on a role, so i investigated him

wtf. Shouldn't you have checked the ones not on the Tazaro wagon? since Tazaro flipped wolf?

Multi ball. Wagon analysis is useless this game buddy

Really? Multi ball doesn't mean you always wagon your partner, right?

multi ball means there might not BE any partners. We could have 3 1 man scum teams.

mafia/werewolf/replecant/alien/serial killer/cult.

How would knowing who lynched the werewolf matter if there is only one werewolf and there is also an alien and a mafia? by VCA reasoning the alien and the mafia could appear perfectly towny, and lynch the werewolf with the town, thinking he was town.

VCA is useless in great/er/est/grand idea

You're confusing the issue. You say you are a SEER. It's supposed to be your job then to look for another werewolf.

Other alignments don't matter right now let's ignore them for a bit.

It is true that town have no ideas on the scumteams, town could possibly be against a one man werewolf team and other non town-aligned roles, but your role as a seer is to look for another werewolf.

so I'm asking why did you investigate the guy who voted out the werewolf yesterday?

oh wow, i totally just noticed this haha.


mainly because i forgot i had a night action until rob PMed me saying "hey you have a night action and i haven't received your input and there's less than a day left till night deadline", so i sent him back the only notable name I had pegged for this game in my mind

[Maruchan]

I think Simeon is making a really good point here. If you go into night thinking "I need to find a werewolf, if there is one" your first choice really shouldn't be "the people that just lynched a werewolf".

he is indeed making a good point. I picked a shitty target. I'll pick off the dead werewolf's wagon tonight.

[Maruchan]

If he doesn't want to claim, I'm cool with that. He's last in order anyway, so fakeclaiming would be pretty simple.

Agreeing with this.

I'm hesitant to vote because potential mylo, but consider me voting Maruchan. Not moving it until he gives some kind of indication of who he's scum reading or where his head is at.

ya'll a big basket full of null and the only person I'm towny reading is simeon for his push of me because i did something uber stupid last night.

everyone else is null squared

[Micc]

ya'll a big basket full of null and the only person I'm towny reading is simeon for his push of me because i did something uber stupid last night.

oh hey that's progress. What are your thoughts on the reasoning I laid out for Kittenlicks being town in post 242?

[Maruchan]

oh yeah i disregarded that post because of my first (or second?) newbie game on site, I shot the whole "playing like you dont know how something works for towncred as scum" thing out the water.

any tell based on ignorance is fakeable, i have faked it, and i would fake it again. so I disregarded your town case based on their ignorance

[Micc]

Any tell based on anything is fakeable tho right? I feel like at some point you have to admit you won't know for sure until there's a flip and just go with what you believe. I happen to believe kittenlicks didn't fake those things so that explains my read.

I don't really have a problem with you thinking that particular point is null, but at some point you've got to actively do something to sort your pile of null reads and I'm annoyed that you refuse to.

[davesaz]

Wow, has it really been 24 hours since a post?
I know I'm part of the problem. I'm barely awake rn.

[Simeon]

I've been shut up tho because I have no idea where to go on who's scum and my gut says not to go lynch maru because he's lynchbait

[KittenLicks]

I've been shut up tho because I have no idea where to go on who's scum and my gut says not to go lynch maru because he's lynchbait

I'm glad I'm not the only one thinking that. The problem is that I don't really see any conceivable way to figure out who

actual

scum is, if Maru isn't.

Though I guess, if I'm excluding Maru, Bob and Simeon, that only leaves Micc and dave. I'm going to feel like an utter moron if Maru is scum, though.

[Micc]

I see where you guys are coming from with respect to Maruchan being possible lynchbait. But I’ve made a pretty reasonable attempt to engage him over this entire day 2 and he clearly doesn’t anything to do with it. We lynched Tazaro for similar things and he also looked like lynchbait, but that worked ok. /shrug.

KittenLicks, care to expand on your Bob/Simeon town reads?

[davesaz]

I'm leaning toward KittenLicks reaction to the lynch being a possible partner.
I have to get up early in the morning and can't do much except run the workshop all day, so hoping to see some discussion on this by the time I'm back.

I had this thought briefly but KittenLicks being unsure of supersaint mechanics lead me away from it. If your partner is a supersaint you probably look that up before he’s claiming in the game thread and it would be an impressively wierd thing to fake. Similarly investigating the universal Miller is not an interaction that I think a scum player thinks of. I’m leaning pretty strongly towards town on KittenLicks right now.

Might a scum player fake that as a way to appear not scum? Or be worried about a watcher so claim a plausible visit?

[Micc]

Sure those things are possible. Anything’s possible. I’m just here trying to make reads based off what I think is most likely to be true. Youre not actually playing a game of mafia if you read everything as null right?

How about you offer your read on KittenLicks and back it up with evidence?

[Maruchan]

I've been shut up tho because I have no idea where to go on who's scum and my gut says not to go lynch maru because he's lynchbait

I do get this a lot

[KittenLicks]

I see where you guys are coming from with respect to Maruchan being possible lynchbait. But I’ve made a pretty reasonable attempt to engage him over this entire day 2 and he clearly doesn’t anything to do with it. We lynched Tazaro for similar things and he also looked like lynchbait, but that worked ok. /shrug.

KittenLicks, care to expand on your Bob/Simeon town reads?

My Bob read isn't really anything more than I really don't think scum would claim Treestump, in the middle of a discussion of "do we lynch or not lynch here", just because the obvious solution to that problem is "oh good let's try to force the treestump to stump himself". It just sounds like a bit of a stupid risk to take, if you don't have to.

I was originally against a Simeon lynch due to being provably a fruit vendor, but I double checked the cards and, at least, mathematically, being a fruit vendor makes you more likely to be non-town, not less. So oops, my bad there. I will say that Simeon was a large part of the Taz lynch, so that speaks to his scumhunting abilities, if not his alignment.

I see where you guys are coming from with respect to Maruchan being possible lynchbait. But I’ve made a pretty reasonable attempt to engage him over this entire day 2 and he clearly doesn’t anything to do with it. We lynched Tazaro for similar things and he also looked like lynchbait, but that worked ok. /shrug.

I suppose this is fair. Unless something else comes up, I support a lynch of Maru. Very tentatively.

[davesaz]

I think Simeon is making a really good point here. If you go into night thinking "I need to find a werewolf, if there is one" your first choice really shouldn't be "the people that just lynched a werewolf".

I also agree with this point, and I'm not sure what was seen after this point to mitigate it.

Town is probably weak in this game, with two somewhat believable claimed neg utils. In any case, scum should hunt for scum with their nightkill in this setup (if you don't believe me, look at old runs and check the strategy of winning scum teams)

Bob's claim kind of checks out, given he said this on Day 1. Not to mention, we're all worrying about if we should lynch someone or not today, and I think it'd be a little suicidal as scum to say "Hey I'm a Tree stump" in that atmosphere. What if we just decide to try to force him to stump himself? Bob is either Town, or has the bravery of a lion. A very negative utility lion.

How would we force him to stump himself exactly?

People I don't want to lynch today:
Bob
Simeon

Are the points in the two posts I quoted your sole reason for TR's on them, or do you have something else?

I don't think I have a preference in the remaining 3. I don't like the night logic by Maru, but... given Maru's general lack of effort in this game I don't know if I'm willing to point to that as scummy. I

can

see Maru just picking someone at random, as a town seer.

Have you seen town roles that have a night action being this apathetic before?

[Micc]

I was originally against a Simeon lynch due to being provably a fruit vendor, but I double checked the cards and, at least, mathematically, being a fruit vendor makes you more likely to be non-town, not less. So oops, my bad there. I will say that Simeon was a large part of the Taz lynch, so that speaks to his scumhunting abilities, if not his alignment.

It's 50/50 right? Town or Mafia.

I agree Simeon's involvement in Taz lynch is a good indication he's not a werewolf because it didn't look like busing. But we already know that he's either Town or Mafia because those are the only fruit vendors. I don't think him leading the wagon is a good thing to be basing a read off here.

[KittenLicks]

I agree Simeon's involvement in Taz lynch is a good indication he's not a werewolf because it didn't look like busing. But we already know that he's either Town or Mafia because those are the only fruit vendors. I don't think him leading the wagon is a good thing to be basing a read off here.

Oh, no, I'm not basing a read off of it. I'm just mentioning it as a sidenote. Like I said in the post, it speaks to his scumhunting abilities,

if not his alignment.

How would we force him to stump himself exactly?

I was referring to the breaking strategy mentioned in Treestump.

To that end, one form of breaking strategy in games where every player can become a Tree Stump is to simply force people to Stump themselves when they would otherwise be lynched. As Stumping does not end the Day, the Town thus gets pseudo-infinite lynching potential.

I'm a treestump

the vote resets if I stump myself, but the deadline continues as normal, in case anyone finds a way to use this in a breaking strategy

Bob himself alluded to it, when he claimed, so he quite clearly knew about it. He's essentually saying "Hey Town, you can have two lynches today, if one of them is me." and sure, that could be WIFOM, but it doesn't feel like it to me.

I think Simeon is making a really good point here. If you go into night thinking "I need to find a werewolf, if there is one" your first choice really shouldn't be "the people that just lynched a werewolf".

I also agree with this point, and I'm not sure what was seen after this point to mitigate it.

Nothing was seen after this to mitigate it. Maru felt like lynchbait then as much as now.

Have you seen town roles that have a night action being this apathetic before?

I don't think I've played long enough to give an accurate answer to this. That being said, Maru probably has

some

night action, even if they're scum. In fact, scum has a night action AND a kill. I'm pretty sure Maru is just disengaged with the game in general, not for any role reasons.

Are the points in the two posts I quoted your sole reason for TR's on them, or do you have something else?

That's it on my town read on Bob, and I didn't really have a 'read' on Simeon so much as a miscalculation regarding the fruit vendor thing. If you want to scumread me for not having many reads, go ahead. This game is hard, I'm not sure on anything, and I'm not going to push or defend someone I'm not fairly certain sure on.