Newbie 2018: Ferrets [GAME OVER]

[WaltertheDunce10]

Do you have more reads Midway?
What post are you referring to on Gl's logic?

[midwaybear]

My reads have guilty, mujie, and pear as town. I lightly scumread clidd, scumread you and sj while ydrasse is neutral and beeboy is null
I feel like clidd's stance on guilty and pear is quite opportunistic but he seems to be trying to sort people otherwise, and I've always been a little suspicious of sj because the content is low. I do not like the way you sheeped guilty lion and I don't know why you scumread me.
I am referring to his [post]188[\post] where he said that I was talking to SJ like she was town. I admitted that it might have been showy, but I certainly do not think she is town right now and I meant what I said.

[clidd]

We could always hang GuiltyLion today and then hang Pear tomorrow if that doesn't work out.

I'm leaning more Pear than Lion.

[midwaybear]

so if pear flips town, are you auto-voting guiltylion?

[clidd]

How are you so sure that it's w/v? This seems sort of opportunistic, and I'm not sure I understand clidd's logic about it.

Oh, please. This is far from being opportunistic.

[midwaybear]

I'm fine with you choosing to sort between pear and guilty today, but I don't like how if one of them flips town, you will assume the other to be scum automatically.

[SJReaver]

I'm fine with you choosing to sort between pear and guilty today, but I don't like how if one of them flips town, you will assume the other to be scum automatically.

To be fair, I was the one who suggested that. I imagine clidd would revaluate before pushing for eliminating the other.

[midwaybear]

well I guess you were also being wagoned at the time, so I guess he would re-evaluate you(good)!

[clidd]

I would have to be wrong in one of my townreads for you two to be town, simultaneously.

Not really?

I agree with you that I think SJReaver, mujie, Ydrasse are town.

If both Pear and I are town that leaves a pool of {beeboy, midwaybear, Walter}

it's not really that hard to imagine a scumteam in those three? Like yeah, from an objective standpoint that's unlikely and requires us to be accurate in our reads, but I don't see why you'd rule it out in order to conclude one of Pear/myself HAS to be scum. It feels pretty reachy and based on questionable VCA assumptions.

Two scums within the set {beeboy, midway and Walter} is not a healthy line of reasoning, at least not with the reads I'm working on.

My personal analysis of the VCA is based on the specific game state that occurred during the period of time when the three wagons {Lion, SJ, Pear}, with equal number of votes, were static, assimilating that to a scum *touch*. The formation of that eventuality is very difficult, in my opinion, to have occurred in a totally natural way, without scum-motivated intervention, which is the reason why I strongly believe that there is at least one scum in this trio.

[clidd]

so if pear flips town, are you auto-voting guiltylion?

That was a bad question.

You obviously know from our past game (which you seem to have forgotten) that I always reevaluate when an inference-conclusion turns out to be incorrect.

[midwaybear]

well I guess you were also being wagoned at the time, so I guess he would re-evaluate you(good)!

yes, I came to the conclusion that you would at least consider SJReaver as scum.

[WaltertheDunce10]

My reads have guilty, mujie, and pear as town. I lightly scumread clidd, scumread you and sj while ydrasse is neutral and beeboy is null
I feel like clidd's stance on guilty and pear is quite opportunistic but he seems to be trying to sort people otherwise, and I've always been a little suspicious of sj because the content is low. I do not like the way you sheeped guilty lion and I don't know why you scumread me.
I am referring to his [post]188[\post] where he said that I was talking to SJ like she was town. I admitted that it might have been showy, but I certainly do not think she is town right now and I meant what I said.

Why do you think clidd is scum.
I will reeval Gl
It may have been influenced by last game where we were town,
I will take a fresh look at it.

[clidd]

I'm fine with you choosing to sort between pear and guilty today, but I don't like how if one of them flips town, you will assume the other to be scum automatically.

You clearly did not understand the purpose of my VCA theory.

[SJReaver]

Let's pull up the previous votes:

GuiltyLion (2): SJReaver, beeboy
Pearofclubs (2): Ydrasse, GuiltyLion
SJReaver (2): mujie, midwaybear

The assumption is that mafia will vote for townie, right? So that gives us some possible combos.

GuilyLion and: ydrasse, mujie, or midwaybear
Pearofclubs and: SJReaver, beeboy, mujie, or midwaybear
SJReaver and: beeboy, Ydrasse, or GuiltyLion

Do any of these pairs look likely?

[GuiltyLion]

My personal analysis of the VCA is based on the specific game state that occurred during the period of time when the three wagons {Lion, SJ, Pear}, with equal number of votes, were static, assimilating that to a scum *touch*. The formation of that eventuality is very difficult, in my opinion, to have occurred in a totally natural way, without scum-motivated intervention, which is the reason why I strongly believe that there is at least one scum in this trio.

I feel like we're starting to talk in circles but I fundamentally cannot grasp where you are coming from here

I believe you are saying:
- Lion, SJ, Pear, all have two votes, and since scum want to influence the game to push executions onto town, then it is likely two of them are townies
- I (clidd) townread SJ
- Therefore, exactly one of Lion/Pear is scum

What I do not understand is why you so quickly discount a very likely IMO possibility that all three are town. Again, in a vacuum, the odds are roughly 40%, just less than a coin flip, that Lion/SJ/Pear is three townies. Then you add to the fact that even if one of us is scum, the scum buddy is likely not voting their partner.

Look at the votes again:

Vote Count 1.3

GuiltyLion

(2): SJReaver, beeboy

Pearofclubs

(2): Ydrasse, GuiltyLion

SJReaver

(2): mujie, midwaybear

mujie

(1): Pearofclubs

Not voting

(2): WaltertheDunce10, clidd

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to eliminate.

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-07-19 22:19:00)

-Walter's not voting anywhere, so if he is scum, his buddy could be voting whoever they want of the remaining players.
-Many viable non-{SJ/Pear/Lion} pairs are voting on opposite wagons. Setting aside our ideas of our own roles and townreads, there's no reason you couldn't have any combo of {beeboy/Ydrasse}, {beeboy/mujie}, {midwaybear/Ydrasse}, {midwaybear/beeboy}, {mujie/Ydrasse} teams. Then add Walter or yourself as a viable combo to any individual player and we have a ton of hypothetical teams where all three wagons are on town.

It just doesn't hold up to me to assume there

must

be scum within the three wagons at this stage. I think that's a pretty faulty assumption that throws the rest of your VCA out of whack. And I'd suggest that overall it's ineffective to be doing any VCA so early into D1 with no flips regardless.

[clidd]

You also don't understand, Lion.

[GuiltyLion]

What do you feel I am not understanding? Specifically the first part of that post where I tried to repeat your argument back to you?

To me, it feels like I don't understand why you think 2t1s in that group is significantly more likely than 3t. If I assume it's 2t1s, I see your reasoning as to why the GL/Pear dichotomy. But I think there's a very significant chance that it's a false dichotomy to begin with, and you aren't recognizing that.

[clidd]

Being more simple, in that VCA, specifically, we had these three wagons that were standing out:

GuiltyLion (2): SJReaver, beeboy
Pearofclubs (2): Ydrasse, GuiltyLion
SJReaver (2): mujie, midwaybear

My theory is that the formation of these wagons (2 votes each) was not natural, as it would imply that 6 players would be in disagreement in pairs about who would be scum, something that I am more likely to see occurring if at least one of these ideas were from a scum player. The three players being town implies a game, in the sense of reads, extremely bad from town alignment and I really don't believe that to be the case.

In other words, I'm speculating that one of these three players being voted on is scum, which motivated his partner (and the scum being voted) to look for an alternative wagon. In this case, we could either have an antagonistic scum motivated scenario, or two against one~two natural wagons. I am not considering mathematical implications, but contextual analysis, so I obviously cannot justify this in a mathematical sphere (as I realized that you are structuring your argument).

[SJReaver]

What I do not understand is why you so quickly discount a very likely IMO possibility that all three are town. Again, in a vacuum, the odds are roughly 40%, just less than a coin flip, that Lion/SJ/Pear is three townies.

If our readings are worse than a coinflip, we suck at this game.

Nighttime activities do help, and on D2 we'll be down one or two people, but the mechanics of this game plus the small starting pool mean there's less room for letting the clock tick down. (Also, your Power Roles leave much to be desired.)

[clidd]

I'm imagining the chain of actions that could have occurred and trying to predict the possible results, which is probably the reason we don't understand each other.

[WaltertheDunce10]

What I do not understand is why you so quickly discount a very likely IMO possibility that all three are town. Again, in a vacuum, the odds are roughly 40%, just less than a coin flip, that Lion/SJ/Pear is three townies.

If our readings are worse than a coinflip, we suck at this game.

Nighttime activities do help, and on D2 we'll be down one or two people, but the mechanics of this game plus the small starting pool mean there's less room for letting the clock tick down. (Also, your Power Roles leave much to be desired.)

What do you mean by pr leave much to be desired?

[clidd]

@Lion

I know you are a rational player. Personal interpretations do not affect your reads if this is against a mathematical argument.

Everything I am saying now is subjective-circumstantial, so you have no reason to value it, as it can easily be wrong.

But again, it is a speculative theory. We won't know anything until we actually see a flip.

[GuiltyLion]

as it would imply that 6 players would be in disagreement in pairs about who would be scum, something that I am more likely to see occurring if at least one of these ideas were from a scum player. The three players being town implies a game, in the sense of reads, extremely bad from town alignment and I really don't believe that to be the case.

ah okay here's where'd I'd challenge you on two fronts

- First, you're basing this off of the first ~200 posts in the game. I think my reads that early are often wrong and it's objectively based on very little information. I am not surprised if I'm voting town this early, and I extend that belief to every player's vote

- Next, and more significantly, you're confusing the players voting with the players

being

voted. You say the three players being town implies town's reads are bad so far, but Pear isn't even voting one of the wagons in that vote count. Let's say if pear is town, and if you are town, that leaves 6 other players voting and Walter also not voting, of which two are scum. If both scum are in the voting group, to me it really

doesn't

feel that unlikely that four townies are wrong, and being manipulated or sheeped by scum.

[GuiltyLion]

also Clidd, I just went back and looked at the last game we played together, Newbie 1995

Look at these early vote counts from that game:
Votecount 1.04, 200 posts into the game
Votecount 1.05, 300 posts into the game

In that game, the scumteam was GuiltyLion/Atarashi. Yet we see three two vote wagons on Re, Maduisha, and Knightmare. Atari and I both don't have a single vote.

Given that this just happened in the last game we played together, why do you think it's unlikely here? Was that game a fluke? I'm too lazy to do an exhaustive search right now of Newbie games, or my own games, but it's funny that your theory is disproven in the one game we played together.

[Pearofclubs]

So after going through this thread again, I'm going to say a few things and ask a few questions.

@SJ:reaver: You assume that mafia won't vote mafia. That's not necessarily true. And what exactly makes you so sure about GL? Your little squabble aside, I see him flipping town if / when your crusade against him gets him killed. If he flips green, what would you that mean for your current reads?

@Clidd: It may be just because I'm the other half of your assumption, but I agree with GL. There's not really any reason to assume that one of us is scum. Maybe, maybe neither of us is, maybe both of us are. (Hint: it's not going to turn out to be that last one :p )

@Walter / Midway: Any thoughts on why your slots abandoned ship without a post? It is a newbie game, so it's certainly possible there was

some reason...

And finally, @Beeboy: You still haven't answered my, or anyone's questions about why you voted Guiltylion. In fact, you basically completely disappeared after, one post since then with nothing of value in it. I know I said I town read the slot earlier based on the idea that an experienced scum player wouldnt be so ... Blatant? Ostentatious?

Anyway. With you having brought nothing of note to the table, and ducking out after jumping on SJ's vote with no reason given, I'm doing this.
VOTE: Beeboy.
Can you please join the discussion? Maybe offer some explanation for your vote?