Micro 984: my beautiful dark twisted familytree [COMPLETE]

[Bingle]

EVs, fully calculated are:

50%
33.3%
33.2%

assuming optimal claims.

[DeasVail]

I’m at work right now and won’t get the chance to look properly at things for a while. I’m really not sure what’s best but I’m not usually an EV kind of guy so I don’t really mind?

[Bingle]

Yeah, it's not a big rush.

I might do some EV calcs for D1 strats for future iterations, assuming we didn't get a 1 iteration rand. I'm not really opposed to going the 33% route for the sake of fun and developing the ability to read each other (the more used to each other we get the more often town should win the game, theoretically) but I am firmly opposed to no yeeting here.

[SirCakez]

I already claimed Father

[Bingle]

You see, this is why I asked if any of the three IC's had claimed. That makes no yeeting substantially worse. Has anyone claimed mother?

[Bingle]

Eh. Apparently not substantially. Redoing the numbers the No Yeet is still very marginally worse than just playing this as XLO. It does give scum the option of just killing Cakez and not giving us any benefit, though, so it's still a bad idea.

[DeasVail]

You see, this is why I asked if any of the three IC's had claimed. That makes no yeeting substantially worse. Has anyone claimed mother?

Insomnia has claimed mother

[DeasVail]

Also bingle, I’m interested in your confidence in making recommendations about what we should do without having read the game.

[Bingle]

Oh, insomnia did.

Great, that path is closed to us.

From a purely numbers standpoint, No Yeet gives us a 1/3 chance of losing tonight and then a 2/3 chance of being in 50/50 tomorrow, which is identical mathematically to just outing the child and playing XLO.

And that assumes that you've done nothing to indicate who the child is, which seems unlikely.

[Bingle]

Also bingle, I’m interested in your confidence in making recommendations about what we should do without having read the game.

?

Why would I need to read the game to do game theory?

[DeasVail]

I would think that what claims have been made/not made and what actually happened would be relevant to the decision we make.

[DeasVail]

Like, you seem to have had no idea?

[Bingle]

Literally none.

I had zero time to read while V/LA and in fact made the V/LA post from my phone without checking the thread.

I also had not read anything other than flips prior to this discussion because if I was going to shut up and listen to an IC knowing anything about relationships between players was irrelevant.

[SirCakez]

I have not said anything about who the child is

[Bingle]

Cool, but that doesn't mean that you haven't accidentally given it away in an interaction. It's a WIFOM game that doesn't actually net us any gain in mathematical likelihood to win. With both parents claimed, our best bet is a presumptive XLO. We can't possibly elim the child (3/6 votes just won't ever be placed there). It's likely we lose if we miselim, although the EV is actually better than 33% now that I think about it because there is a chance that scum will pick the VT over the child if we kill off a VT regardless of how unlikely I think that actually is, subjectively.

[Bingle]

Actually, wait. My numbers are off. We don't autolose on a no elim child kill. That would leave us with 3 alive one scum. Presumptive best play there is kill Cakez -> kill insomnia -> shoot for child. We're in a 2/3 50/50 or a 1/3 33% which is better odds than the 33% we're at currently.

(Still worse than no parent claims, but w/e)

I retract my refusal to no yeet, although likely we have to no yeet three times. Our EV is 44%.

[Bingle]

@mod: is there a deadthread for this game? Will the deadthread be published between iterations if it exists?

[SirCakez]

What does ev mean

[Bingle]

Expected Value.

Basically, if everyone makes the correct decision, you completely disregard the effect on the outcome of the game attributed to read accuracy, and you presume eliminations happen by completely random chance within some pool determined by a strategy, how often should town win the game. If we no elim here, we should have a 44.44444444% chance of winning the game purely on the shoulders of probability.

Of course, expected value and game balance aren't exactly equivalent (for example, nightless setups tend to have a significantly higher win rate in practice than the EV would account for and mountainous setups have a significantly lower), but it's a good starting place for balancing setups and developing breaking strategies.

[Kanna]

pookyyy :c

i'm acknowledging daystart, but will be here tomorrow.

[Errantparabola]

Votecount 2.1

DeasVail

(1): SirCakez

Not Voting

(5): Kanna, Bingle, DeasVail, insomnia, Galron

-

Dead & mafia PTs will be published.

4 majority. Deadline in

(expired on 2020-12-01 14:15:00)

[SirCakez]

UNVOTE:
Hmm

[Kanna]

did not really like bingle’s entrance; i feel like he could’ve easily read up, but instead did a lot of stuff to look like he’s solving

i’m not... good at EV and such, but i like insomnia’s plan from intuition

[Kanna]

POOKY, WE WERE TOWN TOGETHER

[DeasVail]

The more I think about it, the more that no elimination just makes sense to me?