all the talk about masons this game that seemingly stemmed from nowhere makes me think the likelihood of there actually being masons is quite low. plus T3 claimed Friendly neighbour after the hammer, probably a strange last-ditch attempt to out a PR, so I think it's quite likely we are in column 2.
In post 213, Lukewarm wrote:
Consider the other choices: Lukewarm who is as close to confirmed town as it gets, and me/Zyla who are suspected to be town power. I think that, to kill someone else, mafia would need to have something big to gain. And the only person who gains from killing Roden (and gains a lot) is Egix.
On the first level I can agree with you, but that assuming that the night kill was a direct action and not trying to frame someone else.
With the fact that a lot of people have been assuming a Mix-Los Mason team, killing someone outside of that could also be trying to raise doubt on whether or not they
are
both confirmed town members, since why would any Mafia member not go for a PR when possible? So if Egix stands to gain, so does someone who's gone up against the two.
Reading back through, the only thing that Mix and Xlos have agreed on with solid reads was that Wayward Son seemed scummy, and the only other person who had a solid read on him was Roden, who said he was scummy.
So
@ Wayward Son
As far as I can tell,
you
have the most to gain from this particular night kill, as you took out someone who was onto you, and raised suspicion on your other two opponents in the process. You also started a bandwagon way too early rather than wait for more discussion on it. So when you get back I'd really like to hear what you have to say.
what makes you so sure Wayward isn't the one being framed? how can you go from "just because Egix gains the most from this kill doesn't mean he's scum" to "Wayward actually gains the most from this kill, so he's scum" in the same post?
there are other logical fallacies and big headscratchers in this post but the above is all I care about atm.
In post 251, Xlos wrote:
Mix-los XD I will claim that I am not a mason, I think I've made it obvious by not knowing who my partner is.
Good to know, but I will have to re-read to get a new read on you and mix now
did mix's 162 not already tip you off or at least make you reconsider?
In post 273, Zyla wrote:Anyway, I don't think I've read said much about my reads yet, so
Currently, Luke is my main TR, Bulge seems to be leaning in that direction, but honestly hasn't posted that much yet, so mostly null.
I've been liking Egix for town, but I do want to see what he says about having something to gain from the NK.
Mix has been hard for me to read, so honestly I'm null on them
Wayward and Xlos are both pretty high on my suspect list, but I want to see what Mix and Bulge think of the night happenings before I commit to a vote.
what do you mean by "mix has been hard for me to read"? havent you been assuming very strongly that mix is a mason since yesterday? when and why were you attempting to get a read on them?
also when and why did xlos suddenly shoot up your scumlist, and why didnt your independent scumread of him make you reconsider your mason theory earlier?
Posted: Mon May 31, 2021 2:10 pm
by The Bulge
In post 269, Xlos wrote:
Wait, if that's true, then this is a pretty strong town tell for Zyla, right? Why would T3 accidentally switch the person he thought I was a mason with with his scumbuddy?
Bulge you're here! And you also suspect Zyla. That certainly makes me feel better about my own case lol
Posted: Mon May 31, 2021 2:20 pm
by Lukewarm
The case for Zyla
Wayward actually touched on my biggest concern from Zyla earlier, and that is that she appears much more in a mindset to spot Masons then I would expect town to be. Definitely thinking about it a lot more then I am.
From my pov, there are just so many town PR combinations out of [cop / doctor / jailkeeper / tracker / friendly neighbor / masons]. More town PRs then I am going to individually try to attribute to players. I am much more interested in looking for scum.
But from the scum's pov, there are only 3 possibilities, and there is a lot of benefit from figuring out the PRs, so they would be hunting for it.
These comments from Zyla are not bad per say, but they definitely betray that she is examining players differently then I do as town
Spoiler:
In post 41, Zyla wrote:Honestly, while that is a possibility, there's also the fact that that are 2 possible role-sets that include masons, so it could be a townpartner as well
In post 160, Zyla wrote:I'll be honest, I was thinking of this as more than just a joke, although if I'm wrong, there are 2 or 3 people who could tell me otherwise
In post 243, Zyla wrote:Uhh, maybe we shouldn't be this quick to vote someone who might be a mason. Getting E-2 at less than 5 hours in isn't a good thing in this case.
tl;dr Every single conversation on Masons being in this game stemmed from Zyla, which could indicate that Zyla know we are in a column with Masons
Posted: Mon May 31, 2021 2:22 pm
by Lukewarm
In post 275, The Bulge wrote:all the talk about masons this game that seemingly stemmed from nowhere makes me think the likelihood of there actually being masons is quite low. plus T3 claimed Friendly neighbour after the hammer, probably a strange last-ditch attempt to out a PR, so I think it's quite likely we are in column 2.
I also noticed a lot of Mason talk this game, so I looked for the cause, and every time it was Zyla.
Although, I think I have the opposite thoughts on T3's Friendly Neighbor claim. I think that makes us less likely to be in Column 2. I think he was wanting someone to say "we can't have a friendly neighbor, because I am ____" Basically, I think he knew that every PR in the game could cc a friendly neighbor
Posted: Mon May 31, 2021 2:33 pm
by Lukewarm
In post 280, Lukewarm wrote:Basically, I think he knew that every PR in the game could cc a friendly neighbor
Which could put us in column C
Posted: Mon May 31, 2021 3:46 pm
by Xlos
The Bulge wrote:
In post 269, Xlos wrote:
Wait, if that's true, then this is a pretty strong town tell for Zyla, right? Why would T3 accidentally switch the person he thought I was a mason with with his scumbuddy?
In post 269, Xlos wrote:
Wait, if that's true, then this is a pretty strong town tell for Zyla, right? Why would T3 accidentally switch the person he thought I was a mason with with his scumbuddy?
So T3 very well may have seen that too, and knew it was not real. And then all of T3's eod posts were just designed to create confusion. They all just make my brain hurt, and I am choosing to ignore everything after he gave me a Town Real tbh
You're right of course, it's not good to draw too many conclusions from posts intended to create confusion. The case for Zyla is pretty compelling, but I still think that Egix is more likely. He's been pretty lurky throughout, so I think suspicion from his content is comparable to Zyla, and the nightkill choice really hammers it home for me. Since T3 flipped Goon, we've got 50% odds to be in column C, and there isn't even a doctor for scum to worry about. And Roden was going down
hard
on Egix near the end...
In post 212, Roden wrote:Because this is a solved game and I can't join another until Egix goes. This is only my first game.
Also, you're not dying. Scum has to go after potential Masons even if it's just bait. Most likely Mix over Xlos since Mix scum read me. That'll be Egix's/your argument for why Mix is chosen at least.
In post 209, Roden wrote:Egix please just NK me so we don't have to take this to Day 3.
In post 172, Roden wrote:There is another potential but unlikely T3 partner. Does anyone think Wayward vs T3 could've just been scum vs scum?
What comes off to you as mafia vs mafia?
I don't think wayward/T3 are scum together for the fact that I don't really see him urgent to line up someone to eliminate after T3 is voted out. The closest he has gotten is saying Zyla/you are suspects, but neither read is deeply formulated.
I didn't get any scum vs scum vibes either but I wanted to get opinions on it just in case. Wayward being scum was only technically a possibility for me, just very unlikely. I'm gonna try not to tunnel tomorrow but I'm 90% sure Egix is scum.
The nightkill choice would be pretty questionable if it weren't for these last few quotes. Either the mafia is Egix trying to help his odds, or it's someone (would Zyla do this?) trying to frame Egix. The latter seems like too much doublethink
Posted: Mon May 31, 2021 3:57 pm
by Lukewarm
In post 282, Xlos wrote:The nightkill choice would be pretty questionable if it weren't for these last few quotes. Either the mafia is Egix trying to help his odds, or it's someone (would Zyla do this?) trying to frame Egix. The latter seems like too much doublethink
Egix could have killed someone else, and then supported Me/Mix leading a wagon against Roden. - Anyone else could have left Roden alive so he would tunnel Egix.
No one gains a ton from a Roden death, so I think that the most likely answer for why anyone would have killed Roden was PR hunting tbh.
And I get the feeling that Zyla has been PR hunting
Posted: Mon May 31, 2021 3:58 pm
by Lukewarm
Xlos, to be clear, I don't think your case on Egix is bad. He is probably my second highest priority after Zyla
Posted: Mon May 31, 2021 4:32 pm
by The Bulge
In post 280, Lukewarm wrote:Although, I think I have the opposite thoughts on T3's Friendly Neighbor claim. I think that makes us less likely to be in Column 2. I think he was wanting someone to say "we can't have a friendly neighbor, because I am ____" Basically, I think he knew that every PR in the game could cc a friendly neighbor
yea that makes a lot more sense than what I said
Posted: Mon May 31, 2021 4:37 pm
by Lukewarm
In post 282, Xlos wrote:The case for Zyla is pretty compelling, but I still think that Egix is more likely.
If we end up in consensus that the scum is likely between Egix or Zyla, then we can just kill them both
We get to kill 3 more people total before we lose
Posted: Mon May 31, 2021 4:39 pm
by The Bulge
Egix doesn't ping me at all, he's been basically my only nullread all game. if he were scum I'd be disappointed lol, but I'm definitely not taking him out of any PoE
Posted: Mon May 31, 2021 4:59 pm
by Lukewarm
In post 287, The Bulge wrote:Egix doesn't ping me at all, he's been basically my only nullread all game. if he were scum I'd be disappointed lol, but I'm definitely not taking him out of any PoE
sshhhhh
Spoiler:
I didn't want to tell Xlos this, but he is in my elimination priority list too.
Posted: Mon May 31, 2021 5:11 pm
by Wayward Son
In post 273, Zyla wrote:Wayward and Xlos are both pretty high on my suspect list, but I want to see what Mix and Bulge think of the night happenings before I commit to a vote.
Using ctrl f I went through your ISO. This is the first place you mentioned any scum read on Xlos.
In post 273, Zyla wrote:Anyway, I don't think I've read said much about my reads yet, so
Currently, Luke is my main TR, Bulge seems to be leaning in that direction, but honestly hasn't posted that much yet, so mostly null.
I've been liking Egix for town, but I do want to see what he says about having something to gain from the NK.
Mix has been hard for me to read, so honestly I'm null on them
Wayward and Xlos are both pretty high on my suspect list, but I want to see what Mix and Bulge think of the night happenings before I commit to a vote.
what do you mean by "mix has been hard for me to read"? havent you been assuming very strongly that mix is a mason since yesterday? when and why were you attempting to get a read on them?
also when and why did xlos suddenly shoot up your scumlist, and why didnt your independent scumread of him make you reconsider your mason theory earlier?
I would like to +1 all of the questions for Zyla.
Posted: Mon May 31, 2021 6:56 pm
by Egix96
In post 273, Zyla wrote:Anyway, I don't think I've read said much about my reads yet, so
Currently, Luke is my main TR, Bulge seems to be leaning in that direction, but honestly hasn't posted that much yet, so mostly null.
I've been liking Egix for town, but I do want to see what he says about having something to gain from the NK.
Mix has been hard for me to read, so honestly I'm null on them
Wayward and Xlos are both pretty high on my suspect list, but I want to see what Mix and Bulge think of the night happenings before I commit to a vote.
What I think is that scum simply saw 209 and ran with it. It's actually a smart move because not only does it cast doubt on me, but it's also hard for me to trace it to any specific person.
In post 263, Wayward Son wrote:If all this Mason talk is correct, then we're facing a Goon or a Roleblocker. The role blocker is useless against Masons, so this might be real good!
Also, the Mason team was assumed to be Mix-Los, and xlos has claimed he's not a mason,
so unfortunately I think that Rolecop is back in the game
, and that's useful in any line-up
I know it's not much, but this was the recent snippet I was feeling town from.
In post 213, Lukewarm wrote:
Consider the other choices: Lukewarm who is as close to confirmed town as it gets, and me/Zyla who are suspected to be town power. I think that, to kill someone else, mafia would need to have something big to gain. And the only person who gains from killing Roden (and gains a lot) is Egix.
On the first level I can agree with you, but that assuming that the night kill was a direct action and not trying to frame someone else.
With the fact that a lot of people have been assuming a Mix-Los Mason team, killing someone outside of that could also be trying to raise doubt on whether or not they
are
both confirmed town members, since why would any Mafia member not go for a PR when possible? So if Egix stands to gain, so does someone who's gone up against the two.
Reading back through, the only thing that Mix and Xlos have agreed on with solid reads was that Wayward Son seemed scummy, and the only other person who had a solid read on him was Roden, who said he was scummy.
So
@ Wayward Son
As far as I can tell,
you
have the most to gain from this particular night kill, as you took out someone who was onto you, and raised suspicion on your other two opponents in the process. You also started a bandwagon way too early rather than wait for more discussion on it. So when you get back I'd really like to hear what you have to say.
what makes you so sure Wayward isn't the one being framed?
how can you go from "just because Egix gains the most from this kill doesn't mean he's scum" to "Wayward actually gains the most from this kill, so he's scum" in the same post?
there are other logical fallacies and big headscratchers in this post but the above is all I care about atm.
I mean, I wasn't sure. The main thing that got my attention was the fact that he voted on someone who already had a vote on them that early in the day, and when he explained his reasoning (which I still don't particularly agree with) I withdrew to wait for more information.
In post 251, Xlos wrote:
Mix-los XD I will claim that I am not a mason, I think I've made it obvious by not knowing who my partner is.
Good to know, but I will have to re-read to get a new read on you and mix now
did mix's 162 not already tip you off or at least make you reconsider?
... My brain can be as sharp as a rubber ball sometimes
In post 273, Zyla wrote:Anyway, I don't think I've read said much about my reads yet, so
Currently, Luke is my main TR, Bulge seems to be leaning in that direction, but honestly hasn't posted that much yet, so mostly null.
I've been liking Egix for town, but I do want to see what he says about having something to gain from the NK.
Mix has been hard for me to read, so honestly I'm null on them
Wayward and Xlos are both pretty high on my suspect list, but I want to see what Mix and Bulge think of the night happenings before I commit to a vote.
what do you mean by "mix has been hard for me to read"? havent you been assuming very strongly that mix is a mason since yesterday? when and why were you attempting to get a read on them?
also when and why did xlos suddenly shoot up your scumlist, and why didnt your independent scumread of him make you reconsider your mason theory earlier?
Are you willing to go into more detail on this? I'm asking because I don't think I'll be able to form an actual read on Bulge that isn't just PoE, otherwise.
In post 37, T3 wrote:Bulge, what particularly stuck out to you about that? What stuck out to me was mostly that it was a brand newbie supposedly having read a bunch of games. This reads to me as if almost fake helpful and as if it was fed by a scumpartner.
In the queue I made it clear that I wasn't "a brand newbie", and was reading games. I urge everyone to give it a look.
Of all my accusers, this looks the worst.
VOTE: t3
At start of day, this post was my main reason for having Wayward as town.
The problem I have now is that I'm feeling like my bar for gauging whether something is distancing or not may have been set too low, especially since IME it has not been too uncommon for scum to Omgus-vote their own buddies.
Also, to address something a bit more recent, I find it surprising that Luke "fully believe(s) that this was a genuine town-slip" (referring to 230) since, if someone is town, they need to check the nightkill to make sure they're not dead themself.
Tangent aside, going back to earlygame posts, I found this interesting in retrospect:
In post 68, MixLixWix wrote:Zyla, T3, Wayward, Xlos* (* pending response) are my suspects right now.
I'm thinking, if Mix had both scum in this section, wouldn't they be a top priority for the NK? It's what's giving me doubt about flipping my read on Wayward, and also makes me less certain about Xlos.
In addition to that, I find it somewhat surprising that Xlos has been the only one to vote me so far this Day. I was more expecting that people would pile on me first, with scum simply having to sit back and watch as I was falsely incriminated, rather than them having to take the initiative themself.
UNVOTE:
^^ I don't normally do that, but I might need another day to fully decide my vote.
Wayward actually touched on my biggest concern from Zyla earlier, and that is that she appears much more in a mindset to spot Masons then I would expect town to be. Definitely thinking about it a lot more then I am.
From my pov, there are just so many town PR combinations out of [cop / doctor / jailkeeper / tracker / friendly neighbor / masons]. More town PRs then I am going to individually try to attribute to players. I am much more interested in looking for scum.
But from the scum's pov, there are only 3 possibilities, and there is a lot of benefit from figuring out the PRs, so they would be hunting for it.
I mean, I wasn't actually hunting for PRs, but I do like trying to figure out who's what; it's like a secondary game to me, and even if I don't really have the means to prove it rn, I do that regardless of alignment
These comments from Zyla are not bad per say, but they definitely betray that she is examining players differently then I do as town
Spoiler:
In post 41, Zyla wrote:Honestly, while that is a possibility, there's also the fact that that are 2 possible role-sets that include masons, so it could be a townpartner as well
In post 160, Zyla wrote:I'll be honest, I was thinking of this as more than just a joke, although if I'm wrong, there are 2 or 3 people who could tell me otherwise
In post 243, Zyla wrote:Uhh, maybe we shouldn't be this quick to vote someone who might be a mason. Getting E-2 at less than 5 hours in isn't a good thing in this case.
tl;dr Every single conversation on Masons being in this game stemmed from Zyla, which could indicate that Zyla know we are in a column with Masons
I mean, the first was just saying that I didn't agree with Bulge that if someone else told them to read that it had to be the mafia, but we've already established that that isn't that important. As for the second, I do regret bringing attention to it, since if it had been a breadcrumb I could've been bringing attention to the PR, which isn't the best plan. And I completely misunderstood how everyone was reacting to it and thought the most people were in agreement with them being Masons, hence my being confused with the votes on Xlos happening that way.
In post 280, Lukewarm wrote:-snip- (answered above)
Although, I think I have the opposite thoughts on T3's Friendly Neighbor claim. I think that makes us less likely to be in Column 2. I think he was wanting someone to say "we can't have a friendly neighbor, because I am ____" Basically, I think he knew that every PR in the game could cc a friendly neighbor
None of the columns have that trait though. A2 would require both PRs to claim, as they both partner with Friendly Neighbor in the B column, and C2 would be impossible to prove from B2 without seeing the other mafia role
In post 273, Zyla wrote:Wayward and Xlos are both pretty high on my suspect list, but I want to see what Mix and Bulge think of the night happenings before I commit to a vote.
Using ctrl f I went through your ISO. This is the first place you mentioned any scum read on Xlos.
How did you come to this conclusion?
255
As for the second question, that's coming soon
