Mafiascum.net

Over the night I did a re-read of the game with a focus on interactions around Cakez. I’m going to put synopsis reads at the top and any relevant notes within the spoiler so as to not overwhelm the page.

- Yesterday locks in Cabd-town pretty significantly, I collected a few quotes here if you doubt it but if you are doubting it at this point there’s something significantly wrong.



- I’m reading them as town still but there aren’t really any strange interactions between them and Cakez. Syryana jumped off wagon to chase his stronger read, but that “fight the power” thing is on-brand for him. As I said yesterday, Tammy wanting to tap into Nacho knowledge from another game was not an approach I would expect to see from them as scum. Fferyllt has just the right blend of paranoia as well.

- I was on the fence about Firebringer upon my initial read. When I reviewed the day, Firebringer was defending SirCakez . But it wasn’t in a buddy way, it was in that misguided town way where they feel their friend is being unjustly pressured. I’ve seen it time and time again and it seems pretty self-evident. Firebringer was also the first to draw extra attention to that post that set Cabd off.



- unwnd was on the cakez wagon earlier in the day, he was actually the first person to bring it to 10 votes. He proceeds to leave the wagon to pursue his own goals and eventually end up townreading Cakez- but it’s authentic. I find myself agreeing a lot with his thought processes. His readflip reads as genuine and progresses throughout the day, and his reach-out to Cakez towards the end of the day looks like town extending a hand, not scum tossing their buddy a life raft.



- This is a read that can move because I’ve never considered myself good at reading her. That being said, Cakez had a very weird interaction with Maria early on in the game that I don’t think comes from buddies. Maria was prodding into Reagan and Cakez was discrediting and handwaving it pretty severely. It’s one of the few non-OMGUS things Cakez did and it’s part of why it stuck out- it definitely sticks out for Maria town but I’m not sure if it says Reagan is scum.



- I don’t have a lot of Bell interactions mostly because he’s been V/LA. Bottom line for my read here is he doesn’t seem to hate his existance so he’s most likely town. We’ll see how he does in D2 but I doubt he has a lot of wiggle room. His vote on the Cakez wagon was a sheep vote so it is weak, still feeling the warm fuzzies on the whole though.



- I can’t believe I have him as high as I do in this list. It feels… wrong. Like working with Miyagi-do wrong. He’s his erratic, eccentric, normal self. But he’d been on and off Cakez all day, and Cakez had his vote parked on BM all day despite minimal pushing (Cakez pushed Noraa way more than BM but his vote was on BM way longer). Cakez also had some commentary on BM’s vote on him when BM wasn’t even on him anymore, and I think Cakez would be much more aware of where his buddies were voting than some random townie.



- This read is another in the same vein as Maria where I am not confident in my abilities to read them. However, I feel comfortable enough by the YOLO hammer to leave him for a few day phases. I do think it is interesting Cakez was not in his bottom half of the playerlist pool, and he continually deferred that read to Firebringer. He did have a good point about the EOD wagon feeling scum-pushed, which is something I agree with looking at the Noraa counterwagon at its peak (6 votes- Flavor, Cakez, Flames, BM, Cabd, Me). There’s only one scum in this group, which means scum wanted to bus here. I think there’s 3 on wagon and 1 amongst the vanity wagons.



- I haven’t really had an issue with Gamma this game sans his slapfight with BM early. But that was annoying, not scummy. His interactions with Cakez don’t look like buddy interactions, along with him and BM being early CW to Cakez.





- I’ve been gut-town reading them for most of the day. I think they occupy a similar void to Firebringer- Defending him when it doesn’t make sense as scum. Nacho hits on it in one of his posts, and I’m back and forth between “town who fell for scum AtE” and “Scum revisiting scum AtE to try and sway others with it.” I think town is more likely, but I wanted to put this thought in for others to comment on.



- Not as big of a gut townread as the catchup hydra, but if you put a gun to my head and made me take a stance I’d say town here. I didn’t mind the weird posts as much as others (granted, I have very little experience with LLD). Cakez calls her out on lurking and simultaneously tries to buddy her. She votes him soon after. Her main negative interaction with the wagon was when she promised Cakez if he flipped green Cabd dies D2. I wasn’t leaning either way off it.




- I don’t remember who said it but whoever said he’d be more fluffy as scum made a good point and I am borrowing it.

- Lurker. I noticed one post where it raised an eyebrow they commented on both Noraa and Cakez, but I could see this slot moving up or down pretty steadily as new information comes to light.





So, as I said already, a big part of why I did this reread was to analyze interactions with the Cakez wagon and see who occupies the roles I expect scum to fill here.

There was the original 5 members of the Cakez wagon. I think it is incredibly likely there is one scum in that bunch, whether it was “didn’t expect it to take off and wanted to get an early bus in” or “start distancing early” has yet to be seen. That leans in the favor of MWB/MWNN. Cakez regularly talks about lurkers in this game. I think we are likely to find one or two scum in those lurker pools, but one of said lurkers shows up in multiple places. I’ll cover this more in their individual section, but you can read my notes if you want to see where I’m going with this.

Given how the day shook out, once that Noraa counterwagon popped up I took a look at the wagon votes. I’m townreading all of the votes pretty significantly besides Cakez, which makes me think scum decided to bus. I expect 3 scum on the wagon, 1 scum in the vanity votes.



- I have beeboy in some interesting positions and he is in that interesting lurker pool, but I think he has some standout interactions with Cakez that make him the final choice for the pool I want to look at. He had an earlier throwaway comment about feeling guilty about voting Cakez that I don’t think comes from talking about a buddy, and was sitting on that stunted BM wagon with Cakez for a long time. I think both would be more aware if they were shoving a dead wagon together.



- I could see it being Reagan. They start out townreading Cakez, then readflip. Then we have that weird Cakez chainsawing Maria’s line of questioning into Reagan. I also think Reagan makes sense as the vanity vote off-wagon later on in the day. I’m not really interested in pursuing Reagan further at the moment, but if you put a gun to my head I’d call them scum.





- He’s been interested in Cabd’s wall explanation of his Cakez read. All day. That, in addition with his early wagon constituency then later hop off than back on the wagon don’t look great. We also have that whole Prism main thread post which bothers the hell out of me for ~reasons~.



- Now, between MWB and MWNN, I think it is more likely that MWNN is scum. His initial vote looks like a weak sheep off of BM’s. He puts some extra heat on Cakez but not a lot of new though processes, and I didn’t like his brushing off of pressure from that extra heat. Later on, Cakez gives two separate scumpools that both have the same overlap- MWNN. Given that scum is likely to put one scum in those big pools, and the overlap between both, MWNN is my primary candidate for scum in this pool.





- I’ve talked about Noraa a lot yesterday. I still don’t like the things I brought up, I still don’t like the weak reaction to my pushing. In terms of the thread, she has a lot of strange interactions with Cakez. She gets off the wagon due to sheep votes and then ends up back on when most of the wagon is still sheep votes. Cakez is scumreading her and actively talking about her for most of the day, so much so that his “dying wish” is to eliminate her next, but his vote has been on BM for most of the day. He even was trying to convince me to vote her while he wasn’t, then proceeded to call me and her scum together.



- He occupies a similar void to Noraa. Later on wagon votes that then jump off to stunt the wagon. The difference between the two is that Dunnstral ends back on the wagon. I also noted his townread on Noraa is interesting given the two of them occupy similar positioning on the wagons. I’m favoring Noraa as the scum in this pool, but included Dunn to be fair.



- I think this person has to be scum. They’re a lurker, yes, but majority of their content is Cakez focused. Like, 80%. There’s some alt mindgaming with fferyllt, and then a bunch of defense of cakez, placating the wagon. And then they end up voting Cakez, the person most of their ISO is defending. It screams last minute bus vote in conjunction with my townreads on the Noraa wagon.

VOTE: Noraa

Rip best hydra.

Guillotina must meet their namesake:

Wow.

VOTE: Gullotina
Seems legit

I'm super salty about that kill, I wanted to ask when any of those heads rolled scum with me and ffery I really think I could have worked with this game. They were my 3rd strongest townread.

Either way, I'm completely caught up and my engine is revved. Let's do this shit.

Bush

Sketch post.

Holy fucking mindmeld, batman.

My vote on Cakez was weak initially, but that's just untrue as I kept pushing it.
Read better.

Didn't read it, but I'm happy to go here. Was fos'ing him overnight.

VOTE: Guillotina

My vote on Cakez in 101 was not exactly sheeping. I think I was scumreading him a bit for joking too much, but that may not be reliable.

hi hows it going fellaas

Cabd what are your thoughts on my pool? I understand I wrote a damn essay but I'm feeling pretty confident.

In post 2795, Firebringer wrote:hi hows it going fellaas

We're fading Guillotina. Want in?

In post 2797, Brian Skies wrote:

In post 2795, Firebringer wrote:hi hows it going fellaas

We're fading Guillotina. Want in?

ehhhh

kind of feel like chilling for now

You also felt like Cakez was town.