If you agree so much, and you clearly do, can you give one point against me apart from not voting Titus?
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:16 pm
by Dannflor
I feel like your approach to me is very level 0 right now but I can't tell if you're just having an emotional reaction to votes
where else do you think scum are?
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:17 pm
by furtiveglance
In post 2802, Dannflor wrote:I feel like your approach to me is very level 0 right now but I can't tell if you're just having an emotional reaction to votes
where else do you think scum are?
Something_Smart, I said that in the post I voted you. Malakittens definitely likely, JJH and PenguinPower also have potential. Everyone else I'm treating as town
In post 164, Something_Smart wrote:Also, I did confirm with the mod that there is guaranteed to be at least one VT in the game. I assume there is also more than one VT in the game, and guessing the ratio of PR to VT is probably pretty important. I was estimating somewhere around 2:1 to 1:1-- having too many VT's makes it trivially easy to keep productivity up. Since we need to average at least 75%, if we assume 2:1 PR:VT, the PR's would need to average around 62%, which honestly isn't bad.
The tricky thing is that hitting way too high is also pretty devastating for town because we lose a lot of power. So we should probably aim for no higher than 85%, which would require a PR average of 78%.
So my (almost) completely uninformed take is that most PR's should be producing between 62-78%. Since mastina is committed to 0 and is probably roughly 10% of town's PR's, shift that up 10% for today, so 68-86%.
Does the ratio of town/mafia not matter then?
Also, what if I'm a super important PR (Power Role) that needs to use at least 100% every night?
In post 19, Ircher wrote:As long as we achieve 1,275 points out of 1,700 points each day, we will be fine. If mastina is setting hers to 0%, then we need to average 80 points per player to avoid the extra night kills.
Is this just you guessing that this game is a 17:4, or did I miss that info somewhere, or?
Ircher hasn't been on since this. It totally assumes 17/4 whereas I assumed 16/5 like other large games I've seen.
I townlocked you initially for this sequence where you were the primary person to bring attention back to the scum slip by Ircher
However, mastina quoted the below post
In post 198, furtiveglance wrote:We shouldn't fire Ydrasse, I think they're an Employee. I'll vote Ircher for now but I might unvote if they come on and explain why they thought 17/4.
VOTE: Ircher
Uncrowned I voted someone.
and that really made me question my townlock of you because for some reason I'd just never read this post before when I was ISOing you. It reads as hedgy and not as bullish on the scum slip argument as I had initially thought you were. It almost reads like you hope you can give Ircher an out.
anyway, not really a reason to scum read you but enough to put you back in the sorting pool
In post 2802, Dannflor wrote:I feel like your approach to me is very level 0 right now but I can't tell if you're just having an emotional reaction to votes
where else do you think scum are?
Something_Smart, I said that in the post I voted you. Malakittens definitely likely, JJH and PenguinPower also have potential. Everyone else I'm treating as town
why do JJH and PP have potential? just absence of towniness or are there specific points of suspicion?
In post 2802, Dannflor wrote:I feel like your approach to me is very level 0 right now but I can't tell if you're just having an emotional reaction to votes
where else do you think scum are?
Something_Smart, I said that in the post I voted you. Malakittens definitely likely, JJH and PenguinPower also have potential. Everyone else I'm treating as town
why do JJH and PP have potential? just absence of towniness or are there specific points of suspicion?
Absence of towniness, that's pretty much always it
In post 164, Something_Smart wrote:Also, I did confirm with the mod that there is guaranteed to be at least one VT in the game. I assume there is also more than one VT in the game, and guessing the ratio of PR to VT is probably pretty important. I was estimating somewhere around 2:1 to 1:1-- having too many VT's makes it trivially easy to keep productivity up. Since we need to average at least 75%, if we assume 2:1 PR:VT, the PR's would need to average around 62%, which honestly isn't bad.
The tricky thing is that hitting way too high is also pretty devastating for town because we lose a lot of power. So we should probably aim for no higher than 85%, which would require a PR average of 78%.
So my (almost) completely uninformed take is that most PR's should be producing between 62-78%. Since mastina is committed to 0 and is probably roughly 10% of town's PR's, shift that up 10% for today, so 68-86%.
Does the ratio of town/mafia not matter then?
Also, what if I'm a super important PR (Power Role) that needs to use at least 100% every night?
In post 19, Ircher wrote:As long as we achieve 1,275 points out of 1,700 points each day, we will be fine. If mastina is setting hers to 0%, then we need to average 80 points per player to avoid the extra night kills.
Is this just you guessing that this game is a 17:4, or did I miss that info somewhere, or?
Ircher hasn't been on since this. It totally assumes 17/4 whereas I assumed 16/5 like other large games I've seen.
I townlocked you initially for this sequence where you were the primary person to bring attention back to the scum slip by Ircher
However, mastina quoted the below post
In post 198, furtiveglance wrote:We shouldn't fire Ydrasse, I think they're an Employee. I'll vote Ircher for now but I might unvote if they come on and explain why they thought 17/4.
VOTE: Ircher
Uncrowned I voted someone.
and that really made me question my townlock of you because for some reason I'd just never read this post before when I was ISOing you. It reads as hedgy and not as bullish on the scum slip argument as I had initially thought you were. It almost reads like you hope you can give Ircher an out.
anyway, not really a reason to scum read you but enough to put you back in the sorting pool
so I thought it would be interesting to wagon you
Yeah if Ircher had linked to some 17/4 large games, or explained why he thought that, it might have made sense. I think I said this already somewhere
I need to heavily reconsider fireisredsir as potential scum, I think.
I think I can see how he developed into a townread for me naturally in a way that made me not want to reconsider. But I've started on his ISO and not only does it not read as towny in the way I originally hard townread him early, but he explicitly says in 391 that he thinks the same way I do in terms of what is AI/what he'd normally do as scum. My most used sorting tool is 'what does this person want to achieve with their posts, is their primary goal getting townread or some other goal more closely aligning with a town win condition'. And fire reveals there that he plays at a level where he'd be aware and able to mask his intentions adequately enough to produce a natural townread from me as scum.
I'll keep reading when I get a moment tomorrow (need to sleep now), but that's where I'm expecting to vote. Dannflor doesn't feel like a correct scumread. Ydrasse has S_S in the correct category. I think jjh actually has a pretty decent chance of being scum, but not with like actual confidence, and I'd like to hear more details about mastina's townread there and see if it's translatable at all to reasoning I'd agree with.
But so far with a game's worth of context on fire's play, I'm not seeing town at all on an altogether read-through of the slot like I did when just reading the game as it happened.
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:35 pm
by mastina
In post 2762, Klick wrote:I would like to claim now that my role is confirmable but thus far I have used it to target Ausuka on N2 and Lukewarm N3 and this is incredibly frustrating to me
(I need to go to bed, 6 hours of sleep was 5 minutes ago and that means every moment I waste is a moment less than 6 hours I'm not getting back)
(But gotta say first)
Klick is locktown because he's doing literally everything in his power to look like scum when there's only two scum left alive.
Also furtive is scum, but proper catchup needs to be tomorrow because again, late for bed.
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:36 pm
by mastina
(I'll vote whichever of fire/furtive has more votes.)
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:36 pm
by furtiveglance
I feel like based on Ircher's thing this game should be fairly easy, if there's only 2 mafia left that is, and I think the aggregate town consensus is in a good place. I'm happy with Ydrasse/Andres/Mastina/Uncrowned as a towncore. I just want to be alive when town wins, not posting in the dead thread. Preferred votes today are Dannflor and S_S. It's only just occured to me that I've been ignoring Fireisredsir, I townleaned him earlier, and now he's just not here, needs prodding or replacing. But nothing really to stop him being mafia with any certainty.
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:40 pm
by furtiveglance
I wanted to say also that I think Mastina is stretching the town consensus out of shape in a bad way, and hurting town by being such a high poster. I know that's not easy to hear, and it's probably not obvious why I'm townreading Mastina in that case but I am, not just because of the claim (which I actually think is fake but still town).
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:53 pm
by furtiveglance
I feel like eliminating [Dannflor, Fire, JJH, Mala, S_S] in the next five votes wins for sure. And maybe we'll get 5 votes, if the mafia kill is down to 1 now.
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2022 12:13 am
by furtiveglance
In post 2821, furtiveglance wrote:I feel like eliminating [Dannflor, Fire, JJH, Mala, S_S] in the next five votes wins for sure. And maybe we'll get 5 votes, if the mafia kill is down to 1 now.
And current consensus (I think) is something like [Me, Dannflor, Fire, JJH, S_S] so yeah. If I was a different player I wouldn't mind too much about dying, but I don't want to leave the game and guess who it is in spec chat. I want to be alive at the end, I want to survive. I feel like I've played well enough to deserve that. If you analyse my play pretty bluntly, I was right on Ircher and Roden and wrong on Titus. So 2/3 of the eliminations so far I was right on. And I think I'm right on most of the unflipped players.
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2022 12:19 am
by mastina
In post 2820, furtiveglance wrote:not just because of the claim (which I actually think is fake but still town).
As a reminder, still not here until like 12 hours from now minimum, but this, I GOTTA comment on right now.
You know why?
In post 4390, Nashville Dreams wrote:I don't necessarily trust the claim but I don't feel comfortable stating what I think mastina is doing.
~Titus
I'm actually quite certain that Titus in that game at one point used furtive's almost
exact
wording. (The iso is 6 pages long and ridiculously hard to search, so I can't find it. It could've been after I was dead or before, hard to find.) Where she said, effectively:
"I think mastina is town, but lying about her claim".
And furtive, in almost the exact wording I remember Titus using, goes "I think mastina is town, but lying about her claim".
In post 2820, furtiveglance wrote:not just because of the claim (which I actually think is fake but still town).
As a reminder, still not here until like 12 hours from now minimum, but this, I GOTTA comment on right now.
You know why?
In post 4390, Nashville Dreams wrote:I don't necessarily trust the claim but I don't feel comfortable stating what I think mastina is doing.
~Titus
I'm actually quite certain that Titus in that game at one point used furtive's almost
exact
wording. (The iso is 6 pages long and ridiculously hard to search, so I can't find it. It could've been after I was dead or before, hard to find.) Where she said, effectively:
"I think mastina is town, but lying about her claim".
And furtive, in almost the exact wording I remember Titus using, goes "I think mastina is town, but lying about her claim".
I don't believe the similarity is coincidental.
And Titus was scum that game?
So you're saying, either:
I read my scumbuddy's past scumgames to get some tips on how to act in exactly the same way as them so we all look the same as a scumteam
or:
Mafia always interact with me scumreading them in the same way e.g. "unlucky, wrong but town!"
