White Flag - TM2020

[Donempire]

Found this gem while searching auros iso:

Cephrir who are your next 3 lynches?

Hop and Dong are two; I'm curious about the third.

I know this is adressed to cephrir and seems weird, but auro is answering THIS question, go check if you think im misrepping.
Damn, hes pretty confident on hopkirk being scum. Unless...

And what makes Hop scum exactly?

Thats 6 posts before he made that post. I guess he doesnt suspect hop as much as i...

This whole paranoia thing is a distraction. We should figure out and come to consensus on Dong/Gob/FF/Hopkirk.

Why is he still putting gob into the lynchpool if he doesnt suspect him? Thats just...

Spoiler:

I’m fairly discouraged at this point following the recent modkill and consequent tiebreaker implications. Been off work today and this is the fourth time I’ve opened up the site intending to get into the game then getting demotivated and just closing it.

I don’t think any of my team particularly joined with the expectation of winning, mostly to try and enjoy the games. They’ve been in general a lot less fun than I expected (tonewise trying to read has been a slog) and I’m struggling to find the motivation to help my team. I’m glad I got the game I did since people here actually seem enjoyable to play with. I’m basically treating this as a normal game rather than team mafia, albeit one where Hectic can occasionally weigh in, and where the mods read everything in our PTs so I can force the mods to read my erotica if I put game related content interspace throughout it.

The modkill itself results in a tiebreaker in the large theme which is pretty central to why I’m discouraged- we can’t mechanically win unless conditions so unlikely they’re virtually impossible have already been met. It’d be a lot easier if any of us had managed to roll mafia (which would be pretty good normally for team mafia bsed on last time) since then we could still win if we all won our games. Annoyingly, the tiebreaker means that even if all three of us were able to immediate call out and lynch the entire scumteams in our respective games it’s not possible for us to win the event unless very specific and unlikely events (all of which are completely out of our control, and most of which have already been determined):

1.) The game we are not in MUST be won by scum as the number of other teams (17) less expected scum numbers across all games is not sufficient to mean that we are the only team who won all of our games (unless there’s more scum than you’d anticipate based on regular setup design and/or there’s exactly one scum per each team).
2.) Every member of said winning scumteam MUST also have another member of their team who rolled scum and lost (though the loss is assumed knowledge as if we win any scum in game’s we’re in would lose).
3.) The game elements was modkilled in MUST also be won by town.

We need specific results in 2 games we have no way to influence, and we need the distribution of scum/town in each team to be very specific and have specific overlap. Nothing we could have done to stop the modkill either, but that’s gone now. Better hope nobody in your team manages to get modkilled. We’re hoping for pretty much all of the large to get modkilled obviously, since enough modkills means we can technically not lose the tiebreak, and running the numbers that’s actually a lot more likely than any other way we’ve got of inning at this point.

Spent enough time talking about this with my team that I’m reasonably confident I didn’t miss anything, but if anyone notices a way we can possibly still have any chance of winning even with the tiebreaker in place then please let me know.
Kind of kills a lot of the enthusiasm I had for the team element of team mafia.

Still, going to try and catch up on this absolutely normal and not at all special or once a year event. Expecting to be interrupted by an important call from work at some point though.

Hopkirk 'Hop' Hopkirk

^A post I doubt Hop makes as scum; the emotions here feel genuine. If he was scum, that'd give him a winning chance for TM (apparently) and I don't think he'd go through the effort to post this - why would it help?

Oh the Auro wagon has half shifted so keeping it up is less pressure than I thought. Sure.

VOTE: Northside
Votes NSG. Shifts it later, but read on.

Hop 'Hopimilius' Hopkirk

I didn't read up. I can't now either and no idea when I'll be able to next week due to work.

I've seen the lynch. I've lost all respect for NSG as a player. I've lost the respect that I had for RC as a player. I've discussed it with the team- people who've discussed irl how they like RC - and everyone seems to share this view.

I'm especially irritated as this clearly was only allowed due to reputation. A new player in that slot with an 7 day period without content would have been subbed out. When it's clearly strategic since she was playing elsewhere in TM I'm pissed that it was actually allowed and would have been disgusted if she was pulling that as my teammate.

Quoting my post end gimmick because fuck this game.

I'm mostly disgusted with RC/North and irritated with the mod for enabling it despite prod rules. The lynch I absolutely agreed with as I fairly clearly said. I don't remember if I used the words I want to policy lynch this.

So scum! Hopkirk casually votes NSG mid D1, is worried about not having a winning chance for TM but still is okay; and then when his partner flips he decides to fabricate *this*? I imagine if he was actually teammates with her he'd try to get NSG replaced. These posts look like a genuine town reaction.

Alright, guess hes fine with lynching hop, BUT hes town.
You know whos fine with lynching town?

[Donempire]

Okay, great, you have an explanation for scum!Auro not killing town!Dong. Now, what about it? Is this your grand Auro case?

Baby, i havent even started. I just wanted to talk to you now that you were on and saw that you were saying some things that were just wrong. Dont mistake hospitality for something else, i'll be right back with my case if you didnt like mine

[Auro]

I know this is adressed to cephrir and seems weird, but auro is answering THIS question, go check if you think im misrepping.

I was saying those were CEPHRIR'S next three lynches. From what CEPHRIR said earlier. Why would I be "curious" about the third if it was MY preferred three lynches, Sherlock?

[Auro]

Why is he still putting gob into the lynchpool if he doesnt suspect him?

Acute observational skills. I've been pushing Gob like shit all game, yet, "Auro doesn't suspect him"

[Donempire]

I meant hop

[Donempire]

And you are right on with 2827.
You could be curious if you havent decided yet and were thinking.

I await your responses to everything else with bated breath.

[Auro]

Everything else? You misrepped me and gave a lot of evidence that I townread Hop. Yes, I did townread Hop. 2298 wasn't my preferred three lynches, obviously. I was saying those were Cephrir's. Which part of this do you not understand?

[Auro]

Okay, this is absolutely dumb.

You cherry-picked a single post where I mention a lynch order, as a response to "What's Cephrir's three preferred lynches".
Every other post in my D2 ISO contradicts this lynch order.
Context cues show that I'm talking about Cephrir's lynches.

So what's the simpler hypothesis - that I am indeed talking about Ceph, or "AURO IS SCUM LOL!!!!"

[Auro]

Now before someone makes a dumbass argument saying "Auro is defensive again, surely he just be scum, natch!", I need four votes on Gobble. I have two from myself and Dann; Gobble and his partner won't lynch him obviously; so I need to convince 2/3 of the other slots.

[Donempire]

Everything else? You misrepped me and gave a lot of evidence that I townread Hop. Yes, I did townread Hop. 2298 wasn't my preferred three lynches, obviously. I was saying those were Cephrir's. Which part of this do you not understand?

I understand everything. Except why did you say you needed to find a lynch target between Gob/Me/Hop/FF if you thought that hop was pretty much not flipping scum?

[Donempire]

Now before someone makes a dumbass argument saying "Auro is defensive again, surely he just be scum, natch!", I need four votes on Gobble. I have two from myself and Dann; Gobble and his partner won't lynch him obviously; so I need to convince 2/3 of the other slots.

You dont need to play the victim, just talk with me instead of talking down to everyone.

[Auro]

Except why did you say you needed to find a lynch target between Gob/Me/Hop/FF if you thought that hop was pretty much not flipping scum?

I said we needed to find consensus, not a lynch target. And that means reaching an agreement on reads. Which extends to a consensus on "Hopkirk town" , which I was trying to achieve.

[Auro]

I was also open to being convinced against my Hop read - I "pretty much" thought he's town but I don't assume I'm 100% right ever.

[Auro]

I'll reword that. "Town should not be distracted by unnecessary paranoia; town must discuss and achieve consensus on the following generally scumread slots A, B, C, D".

My own reads on A, B, C, D aren't wholly relevant to the statement. It's a statement about how "we", i.e. town, should gamesolve together.

Does this help?

[Auro]

but i was certain on one thing during the later stages of the game: The fact that scum will want to control the narrative so afk players cant be scum, and auro + dann seemed to fit that to a tee.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=150&t=81775
Look at D1 in the linked game. Scum lurked. People scumread the slot for it. People wagoned the slot. They still didn't attempt to control the narrative, and got lynched D1.

[Donempire]

Sort of.

I'll be preparing the case.

[Donempire]

but i was certain on one thing during the later stages of the game: The fact that scum will want to control the narrative so afk players cant be scum, and auro + dann seemed to fit that to a tee.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=150&t=81775
Look at D1 in the linked game. Scum lurked. People scumread the slot for it. People wagoned the slot. They still didn't attempt to control the narrative, and got lynched D1.

*audience erupts in laughter*
Shame that the two next lynches who were also on lurkers (relative to other people anyway) both hit town, and the one scum that didnt attempt to play like i said scum should died. So if anything this reinforces the fact that scum will try to be more active.

[BBmolla]

BB I kinda want your take on things at this point.

That’s fair.

I have time today to mull on this but not right this minute.

Want to hear from Dann.

[Formerfish]

Why would {Auro+Dann} kill Ceph, who townread me and locktowned Dann? Cheeky is the far superior choice for us, considering all her paranoia, yeah? I really doubt Ceph would be re-evaluating us.

Ceph was tring me. Dunn was tring me. Kitty was tring me.

I don't know if this is me being paranoid or if the night kills and the pushes during the day are all trying to kill me easier. I could def see scum undercutting my support to set me up for a later mislynch. Hell, Auro says as much in 2788.

[Formerfish]

I feel better about Dong after his tet-a-tet with Auro. Dongs posts didnt seem to be forced as scum and had an easy breezy air to them that I don't think comes from scum most of the time. I also know Dong a bit and might be biased by that, but he isn't pinging me here as scum.

Auro on the other hand fits perfectly with what I think scum have been doing. I realize this might be egotistical but with the amount of pushing that has happened on me during the day phases and the amount of people dying at night that were supporters of me its hard to see these actions as anything other than trying to set me up in a situation where people pushing me can say that their reads havent changed on me, and that they've been wanting to lynch me for awhile and just didnt have the support. It;s not so much that the support wasnt there, as the ones pushing me have been pretty constant, its the fact that there were a number of people defending me and pushing back against my pushers.

Well, whats the situation now? All the people who wanted to hang me are still alive and all the people who were roadblocks to that happening are dead. Then Auro comes in and says I need to die. Funny how that worked out. You keep pushing me, get push back, kill the people pushing back until they dont exist anymore and then your path to a scum!victory becomes that much more simple.

[CheekyTeeky]

Viola.

[CheekyTeeky]

Uh...voila*

[BBmolla]

Gobbles what the fuck are you doing dude

[gobbledygook]

I’m here! My busy weeks are over thank goodness. I am cooking and cleaning right now but I have been slowing writing a post when I can over the last week so I’ll post that when I sit down at the computer

[gobbledygook]

I’m pretty much starting this game over tabula rasa style. Going to treat it as if I’m a replacement