StrangerCoug wrote:The reason I'm more reluctant to vote OhGodMyLife right now is because 1.) my vote on him was to test a theory by a player who since replaced out and of whom some people now suspect of being a serial killer and 2.) I don't buy OhGodMyLife and maxwell as both scum the way HezLucky's been going after him.
That's the last thing you said regarding OhGodMyLife on Day 4.
StrangerCoug wrote:I still think lynching HezLucky is the correct answer for refusing to justify how maxwell was bussing OhGodMyLife. Yes, OGML flipped scum. That was what I thought at the time.
I'm confused by what looks like pretty unconvincing revisionist history on your part. Can you explain?
It was a relatively weak scum read, but a scum read nonetheless.
Yes. Practically the whole game. Do you see the rest of us pumping our egos?
Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 2:17 pm
by Psyche
48 hours.
Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 2:23 pm
by Maxous
It's kinda annoying how ben does'nt answer direct questions.
DLG wrote:FakeGod voting Benmage. FakeGod was part of the early Day 4 quick push on Benmage. Given that FakeGod avoided voting who he knew was his scum buddy PR, and his all Day stance on Benmage, I really don't believe he was bussing Benmage. This means that Benmage is probably only scum if this is a 2 scum team set-up as opposed to 1 scum team and Serial Killer.
Any particular reason you don't think he is a SK?
Did I miss it earlier?
Yes. Practically the whole game. Do you see the rest of us pumping our egos?
Wait wait wait... YOU STILL fine me scummy??
Let me see your top 2 scum.
Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 2:23 pm
by Benmage
↑Maxous wrote:It's kinda annoying how ben does'nt answer direct questions.
DLG wrote:FakeGod voting Benmage. FakeGod was part of the early Day 4 quick push on Benmage. Given that FakeGod avoided voting who he knew was his scum buddy PR, and his all Day stance on Benmage, I really don't believe he was bussing Benmage. This means that Benmage is probably only scum if this is a 2 scum team set-up as opposed to 1 scum team and Serial Killer.
Any particular reason you don't think he is a SK?
Did I miss it earlier?
What did I not answer directly?
Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 2:27 pm
by Benmage
↑Maxous wrote:
I'll remove benmage and Code X from the list. Don't wanna lynch either of them today.
Why CodeX?
Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 2:35 pm
by Maxous
this:
@Anybody: Do you think it is possible a Serial Killer in this game could be investigative immune along with a godfather that was?
Particulary @ Hez, benmage, and SC who I think(?) have been in numerous games.
Since you're one of the more experienced heads.
Like, how likely do you think it would be or is it unlikely enough not to worry about?
P-Edit: Code X's D4 play read as town to me. I would rather not lynch him.
@Anybody: Do you think it is possible a Serial Killer in this game could be investigative immune along with a godfather that was?
Particulary @ Hez, benmage, and SC who I think(?) have been in numerous games.
Since you're one of the more experienced heads.
Like, how likely do you think it would be or is it unlikely enough not to worry about?
P-Edit: Code X's D4 play read as town to me. I would rather not lynch him.
Not exactly.. dodging direct questions...
Anywhose, sure its possible.
Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 2:49 pm
by DLG
↑Maxous wrote:Any particular reason you don't think he is a SK?
Did I miss it earlier?
You didn't miss it, in that I don't think I posted it.
The thing that gets me off that idea is the vote Fallman7 to implicate Lady Lambdadelta hijinks. As Serial Killer, Benmage could be doing Daytime scum hunting and Night killing. But, it seems incredibly dangerous to make an enemy of a scum read in that fashion. I'd think as Serial Killer he'd want to avoid that kind of attention grabbing play. To me, that means either Town or scum of opposite team, not Serial Killer.
Oh, Benmage, I've traded off my scum read on you temporarily, but are you serious about asking what you've avoided when I'm in the mix? I don't want those oft-promised and not delivered responses at this time. It would only serve to create excessive noise, in my opinion. But, gee whiz.
@ Benmage
Please explain your insistence on Town!Psyche. He's far and away my top scum read, currently. Help me see where I'm wrong.
@ Maxous
Why the insistence on investigation immune Serial Killer? How about bullet-proof? Given everything else that's been revealed, I think that is a far more likely scenario if there's a Serial Killer.
Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 2:54 pm
by Psyche
This close to saying "Fuck it"...
It's weird. I didn't know I had /inned to this from the beginning...
Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 3:02 pm
by Psyche
I wonder how I survived for so long doing nothing. It's anomalous. I guess other people just really stood out?
Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 3:07 pm
by Psyche
↑Benmage wrote:Firestarter couldn't be more town if he was an innocent child.
Hahaha.
Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 3:15 pm
by Maxous
Oh, I'm assuming the SK is bulletproof. Wondering if people think he could also be investigative immune also.
I remembered a large normal game in which Mastin('s hydra) was both as a SK.
rack Day 1 lynch - 6 known town, 3 known scum, 4 unknown alignment - {Benmage, RachMarie, Maxous, StrangerCoug}
Spoiler: End of Day 1 analysis
Originally, I hypothesized 3 to 4 scum on this wagon. 3 are now known. Of those four unknowns, I don't want to pursue a lynch on any of them. That means the players off the rack wagon are due serious scrutiny.
This list includes 6 known Town (including me as Macros) and 5 unknown alignment players - {HezLucky, redFF, maxwell, Psyche, Code_X}.
redFF was voting Firestarter (OhGodMyLife). redFF was on this slot consistently and strongly throughout. This is further evidence of redFF as Town.
maxwell (as drmyshottyizsik) was voting Nero Cain. By itself, this means nothing. But, along with later Day indicators, I'm growing strong suspicion on this slot.
HezLucky was voting Benmage. Given my original suspicion of Benmage, I felt this was a Town indicator (off the mislynch and voting a scum read of mine). Now, I'm not so sure. HezLucky is not a top suspect, for me, but I'm willing to listen.
Psyche and Code_X were not voting. My Psyche read is what it is.
The Code_X non-voting is kind of peculiar. Code_X replaced NihilisticNinja shortly before the end of Day 1 and unvoted.
@ Code_X
To the best of your recollection, why did you unvote on replacing in?
Of the 5 unknowns off the rack lynch, my strongest suspects are Psyche and maxwell. Lesser, but still some suspicion to HezLucky and Code_X. See Day 2 and Day 3 analyses for more on HezLucky and Code_X.
Seacore Day 2 lynch - 6 known Town, 1 known scum, 4 unknown alignment players - {Maxous, RachMarie, redFF, Psyche}
Junpei end of Day 2 wagon - 2 known Town, 2 known scum, 4 unknown alignment players - {HezLucky, Code_X, StrangerCoug, Benmage}
Spoiler: End of Day 2 analysis
I do not buy that the Seacore lynch was 10 Town and 1 scum. I'm not much happier with the idea of 9 Town and 2 scum. But, given the set of unknowns, I can maybe accept it. The obvscum in that group of 4 unknown alignment players is Psyche. This is perhaps the strongest evidence of scum!Psyche.
The Junpei wagon unknown alignment players are more difficult to separate. Of note, though, is that once again, HezLucky and Code_X are involved. Combined with my Day 1 analysis, these 2 slots are growing more suspicious.
There were only 2 players not on either of the Seacore or Junpei wagons. Seacore was voting DeasVail (which tells nothing) and maxwell (as drmyshottyizsik) voting redFF. Now, it pushes credulity that a Town player would be voting 2 PR's at the end of consecutive Days. Certainly Day 1, scum couldn't have known Town PR's. But, if there is a scum RoleCop - which seems reasonable - by Day 2 they could have known this. Especially if this slot is the RoleCop. This is theorizing, but the combination of circumstances is becoming compelling.
Day 2 suspects are Psyche and maxwell, with, again, suspicion left over for HezLucky and Code_X. This is becoming a theme.
Fallman7 (Junpei) Day 3 lynch - 2 known Town, 2 known scum, 6 unknown alignment players - {redFF, HezLucky, StrangerCoug, Benmage, Code_X, Maxous}
Spoiler: End of Day 3 analysis
The only players of unknown alignment who weren't on the end of Day 2 wagon on the Fallman7/Junpei slot were redFF and Maxous. I don't have suspicion of either of them. That means that the set of {HezLucky, StrangerCoug, Benmage, Code_X} is once again in the spotlight.
There were 3 players of unknown alignment not on the Fallman7 wagon. Those were RachMarie (as The Mini-Librarian) voting FakeGod (for what it's worth, this sure looks like more evidence of this slot as Town, if it was needed), and maxwell and Psyche not voting.
maxwell replaced into Day 3 in plenty of time to place a vote, therefore he gets full scum points for not voting. That makes for 2 town PR votes and one no-vote from this slot to end three Days. I really can't see this as Town behavior.
So, of the 6 unknown alignment players on the Fallman7 wagon, there are probably a couple of scum and Psyche and maxwell off the wagon not voting.
No surprises, the evidence implicates Psyche and maxwell, with suspicion for HezLucky and Code_X.
FakeGod end of Day 4 lynch - 1 known town (me), 1 known scum, 6 unknown alignment players {Maxous, maxwell, Code_X, RachMarie, Benmage, StrangerCoug}
Spoiler: End of Day 4 analysis
This is the most difficult analysis as it is on a scum and has the least available information. The problem I have is that scum!maxwell had to have gone for a solid bus play and scum!Code_X the same if we are in single scum team. But, given that FakeGod was not the strongest player and the fact that he was just a Goon, this play is not implausible.
After my vote, the RachMarie, Benmage, and Stranger Coug votes seem acceptable. Both Benmage and StrangerCoug were on the OhGodMyLife wagon before joining this wagon. Now, StrangerCoug had abandoned that in favor of a HezLucky vote, but the implication is the same. It seems unlikely that they'd bus two partners when other options could have been found. In particular, StrangerCoug could have avoided this wagon.
The remaining players on OhGodMyLife were 1 known Town and {redFF, HezLucky}. This is probably the strongest evidence of HezLucky as Town. He could have opted off a scumbuddy PR in favor of a scumbuddy Goon, but didn't. For this single reason, I'm unsure about this slot. Still, I've been wrong about a Town read for what seemed to me reasonable evidence (read as OhGodMyLife).
Once again, Psyche was not voting at the end of Day 4. This cannot be Town.
Best take on the Day 4 information is Psyche as scum. He needs to be killed, now. I just cannot see him as Town.
The information above is only spoilered to save space. I don't think it should be ignored, obviously.
The summation is that Psyche is scum and needs to hang, immediately. Everyone should be voting him, now. In particular, see the Day 2 analysis section.
After Psyche, my next most probable suspect is maxwell.
Below them, maybe HezLucky and/or Code_X. These are mostly supported as POE based on the information contained above.
↑Maxous wrote:Any particular reason you don't think he is a SK?
Did I miss it earlier?
You didn't miss it, in that I don't think I posted it.
The thing that gets me off that idea is the vote Fallman7 to implicate Lady Lambdadelta hijinks. As Serial Killer, Benmage could be doing Daytime scum hunting and Night killing. But, it seems incredibly dangerous to make an enemy of a scum read in that fashion. I'd think as Serial Killer he'd want to avoid that kind of attention grabbing play. To me, that means either Town or scum of opposite team, not Serial Killer.
Oh, Benmage, I've traded off my scum read on you temporarily, but are you serious about asking what you've avoided when I'm in the mix? I don't want those oft-promised and not delivered responses at this time. It would only serve to create excessive noise, in my opinion. But, gee whiz.
@ Benmage
Please explain your insistence on Town!Psyche. He's far and away my top scum read, currently. Help me see where I'm wrong.
You think Im the SK?
Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 3:31 pm
by Benmage
↑Psyche wrote:I wonder how I survived for so long doing nothing. It's anomalous. I guess other people just really stood out?
↑Maxous wrote:Oh, I'm assuming the SK is bulletproof. Wondering if people think he could also be investigative immune also.
I remembered a large normal game in which Mastin('s hydra) was both as a SK.
Ah, I see. At this point, it wouldn't surprise me a whole bunch, I guess.
What do you think of the chance of a two scum team set-up instead of a single scum team and Serial Killer set-up?
Really, I'd like everyone's take on this. What makes Serial Killer more likely than another scum team?
@ Benmage
No, I don't think you're Serial Killer. That response was to Maxous on why I did not think you were Serial Killer. Am I wrong?
Of course not.
-There is now zero chance of a 2 scum team setup. Just saying.
Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 3:44 pm
by Benmage
DLG, why is my read on "hold"... my scum read was because I didn't answer a few shitty questions? Right?
Thats it.... Or is there more to it?
Considering my play with a few flipped scum, I must be the worlds best goddamn scummer ever.
Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 3:45 pm
by Psyche
That it was so long ago is what makes it okay to laugh at it.
Here's what's been happening to me this game:
I joined it because I was looking for a fast mafia fix.
But found it to be far more active than what I was used to. And on top of that, I found that this and the assortment of players in the game was making the whole thing a chore.
And then when school concerns took over, the thread grew enormously and I struggled to grasp the motivation and passion to read and analyze such an overwhelming load.
I asked to replace out, and almost made it out, but a missent PM by Peregrine and guilt over the whole thing had me running back.
But I still couldn't get over that readthrough hump, and school was only getting more hectic.
Once school was over, I was in a Game with more pages than I had ever been asked to handle before. And I still lacked willpower.
So I just whittled my time away and ignored the game, feeling guilty but trapped every moment of it...And here we are.
I've ruined myself. I've set myself up for failure.
But now I'll try to make up for it, at least a little.
Or maybe I'll just give up, overdue-like. Eh.
Benmage's case on me is him trying to frame that which is a whole lot of nothing. I don't see I can be accused of anything except of absolutely nothing.
Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 3:48 pm
by Benmage
Psyche.... I am the only reason you are alive.... last sentence did you mean someone else?
Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 3:55 pm
by HezLucky
Holy crap that's a lot of power that died.
Maxous wrote:@Anybody: Do you think it is possible a Serial Killer in this game could be investigative immune along with a godfather that was?
Particulary @ Hez, benmage, and SC who I think(?) have been in numerous games.
Doubt it. You want an investigation immune godfather AND sk? That makes the cop downright useless. More likely SK is nightkill immune.
Maxous wrote:Which leaves Psyche, Maxwell, Hez and SC.
This is a good list. Minus me.
StrangerCoug wrote:I still think lynching HezLucky is the correct answer for refusing to justify how maxwell was bussing OhGodMyLife. Yes, OGML flipped scum. That was what I thought at the time.
LOL and you wonder why you're on the list.
@DLG: You mean I was actually right about Psyche the whole time?