Mafiascum.net

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:16 am**

I exist. Pretty weird I haven't been prodded in any way but whatever.

Deadline for :a post: is tomorrow.

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:26 am**

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Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:29 am**

Thanks, fixed in datasheet.

148 Zoidberg
143 Slumberpartybois
115 Iecerint
110 zoraster
95 Kawaii (Kise/Katsuki hydra)
87 TheTrollie
82 The Mini-Librarian Nobody Special
75 vollkan
62 TheButtonmen whispersilk
58 BT
50 0DeltaWave
25 Wyrd (Nuwen/Fate hydra)
25 dramonic
12 Pretentiousdra

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:30 am**

OK so assuming P-dra as town won't change the calculations all that much.

Let's see what happens to the numbers if Trollie can prove he's town.

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:34 am**

hey DGB can you show us your face when you add up your probabilities and you get probabilities of people being scum that are greater than 1?

I'm betting it'll be the same look as every dubmass who doesn't understand how non-independent events work.

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:41 am**

Okay... those "probabilities" are completely flawed.

as mentioned, they're not just independent dice rolls
based on conjecture
don't take into account subjective situations

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:41 am**

Sorry, I noticed a small clerical error that shouldn't change much.

148 Zoidberg
143 Slumberpartybois
123 Iecerint
118 zoraster
100 TheTrollie
95 The Mini-Librarian Nobody Special
95 Kawaii (Kise/Katsuki hydra)
75 vollkan
75 TheButtonmen whispersilk
58 BT
50 DeltaWave
25 Wyrd (Nuwen/Fate hydra)
25 dramonic
17 Pretentiousdra

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:42 am**

↑ Pretentiousdra wrote:hey DGB can you show us your face when you add up your probabilities and you get probabilities of people being scum that are greater than 1?

I'm betting it'll be the same look as every dubmass who doesn't understand how non-independent events work.

I'm ADDING the probabilities and multiplying by 100.

So it's no longer P{x} but a point construct.

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:43 am**

if you want to fix it multiply all of the (1-P(scum)s together.

Then take 1-the answer to get P(scum)

Pedit: Yeah it's still useless

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:43 am**

↑ Zoidberg wrote:Okay... those "probabilities" are completely flawed.

as mentioned, they're not just independent dice rolls

based on conjecture

don't take into account subjective situations

Aw, that's how it works and I have tremendous success with it.

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:44 am**

↑ DrippingGoofball wrote:I'm ADDING the probabilities and multiplying by 100.

For dependent events you're supposed to multiply them. Your probabilities have zero mathematical meaning.

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:45 am**

↑ Zoidberg wrote:
↑ DrippingGoofball wrote:I'm ADDING the probabilities and multiplying by 100.

For dependent events you're supposed to multiply them. Your probabilities have zero mathematical meaning.

They have zero mathematical meaning. I know that. It doesn't change anything.

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:46 am**

↑ chesskid3 wrote:if you want to fix it multiply all of the (1-P(scum)s together.

Then take 1-the answer to get P(scum)

Pedit: Yeah it's still useless

Chesskid, I literally hate your guts.

You may be town, but I still hate your guts.

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:48 am**

↑ Zoidberg wrote:
↑ DrippingGoofball wrote:I'm ADDING the probabilities and multiplying by 100.

For dependent events you're supposed to multiply them. Your probabilities have zero mathematical meaning.

You are sounding like caught scum. Is that by design or by accident?

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:49 am**

And you are sounding like scum presenting bogus information under the guise of analysis. Is that by design or by accident?

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:49 am**

Subsituting with TheTrollie as town:

155 Zoidberg
147 Slumberpartybois
134 Iecerint
129 zoraster
111 TheTrollie
103 The Mini-Librarian Nobody Special
102 Kawaii (Kise/Katsuki hydra)
83 TheButtonmen whispersilk
82 vollkan
58 BT
54 DeltaWave
29 dramonic
25 Wyrd (Nuwen/Fate hydra)
14 Pretentiousdra

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:50 am**

↑ Zoidberg wrote:And you are sounding like scum presenting bogus information under the guise of analysis. Is that by design or by accident?

I've been doing this sort of analysis mid-game since the dawn of time, why the sudden challenge? Look up my history. Or crawl back to your QT and ask for assistance.

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:51 am**

155 Zoidberg

147 Slumberpartybois

134 Iecerint
129 zoraster
111 TheTrollie
103 The Mini-Librarian Nobody Special
102 Kawaii (Kise/Katsuki hydra)
83 TheButtonmen whispersilk
82 vollkan
58 BT

54 DeltaWave

29 dramonic
25 Wyrd (Nuwen/Fate hydra)
14 Pretentiousdra

The above underlined is notable.

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:53 am**

Also of note, vollkan rates pretty high given his low profile.

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:54 am**

↑ DrippingGoofball wrote:I've been doing this sort of analysis mid-game since the dawn of time, why the sudden challenge?

"The sudden challenge"? This is the first game we've played together, how can it be sudden? Are you suggesting I should have barged into past games and called you out on it?

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:58 am**

NUWEN COME QUICK

ITS MY FAVORITE RERUN OF DGB'S "THROW WORDS N NUMBERS AT THREAD UNTIL SEEN AS TOWN"

LETS SEE IF IT ENDS DIFFERENTLY THIS TIME

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:59 am**

DGB REDO THE ANALYSIS WITH REAL MATH

OR I'LL HAMMER YOU
THANKS

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 12:00 pm**

↑ Wyrd wrote:NUWEN COME QUICK

ITS MY FAVORITE RERUN OF DGB'S "THROW WORDS N NUMBERS AT THREAD UNTIL SEEN AS TOWN"

LETS SEE IF IT ENDS DIFFERENTLY THIS TIME

GOD YOU ARE SOOOOOOOOOOOO SCUM

YOU HAVE DONE NOTHING, NOTHING BUT TUNNEL ON ME
And YOU GO

WAH WAH WAH

DGB TRIED TO KILL ME AND I WAS DOC-PROTECTED

LIKE ANY SCUM WOULD TRY TO KILL YOU, YOU BONEHEAD

YOU ARE MORE USELESS THAN A BICYCLE FOR A FISH

I SHOULD HAVE LET YOUR BUDDIES BUS YOU

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 12:00 pm**

↑ Zoidberg wrote:
↑ DrippingGoofball wrote:I've been doing this sort of analysis mid-game since the dawn of time, why the sudden challenge?

"The sudden challenge"? This is the first game we've played together, how can it be sudden? Are you suggesting I should have barged into past games and called you out on it?

Well, it's sudden for me.

Posted: **Fri Jan 11, 2013 12:00 pm**

↑ DrippingGoofball wrote:
↑ Zoidberg wrote:And you are sounding like scum presenting bogus information under the guise of analysis. Is that by design or by accident?

I've been doing this sort of analysis mid-game since the dawn of time, why the sudden challenge? Look up my history. Or crawl back to your QT and ask for assistance.

"I DO DIS SHEET ALL TEH TIME AS TOWNZ"

simultaneously calling Zoid scum AND imploring him to meta her so that he'll think she's town

I mean

come on

gee
gee
DEE GEE
BEE

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