I'm going to try to be nice about this and clear in the explanation of why bussing is auto loss for the scum team. I'm sorry about my quickhammering, I think I did it because of impulsivity, and I've implemented a few different habits to make myself calmer while I play so I don't quickhammer again.
Town has one ML right now to test in the four weakest VT claims (you, me, andres, datisi) because two of us are almost certainly lying. We can hunt outside of those four, but the chances are marginal. Town needs to be either drastically overestimating our ability to read House, the setup review team has decided to nerf the power of town in Mini Normals, or something unlikely happened between VP and Math. If any of these unlikely events has occurred, unless another unlikely event occurs, town is going to lose, because without an incredibly compelling reason or a lot of drugs or both, the elimination votes and night action targets are going to be used on the four of us.
Scum don't have multitasking and town have a shooter and an investigative, either one of which successfully completing a night action can reduce down the pool of weaker VT claims by one
costing town an ML.
For example, the only scenarios where scum win are if scum is outside of the weaker VT claims for whatever bizarre reason, or in a game which proceeds
in this way:
Right now (D3) there are 6 town - 2 scum and we have four weakest VT claims to test. We miss scum today because we use the ML on a real VT (me!) and at night the scum team NK our investigative and role block the vig. Now scum team can win in 2 ways...
...tomorrow (D4) there are 4 town - 2 scum alive, and now they are hiding within you, Datisi, or andres. Town mislims the real VT within the remaining 3 claims (for example, you) then scum NK and win because it's 2 town - 2 scum alive.
OR
...tomorrow (D4) there are 4 town - 2 scum and now they are hiding within you, Datisi, or andres. Town lims a scum within the remaining 3 claims (for example, andres) then scum NK and it goes to D5. On D5 there are 3 town - 1 scum, and 2 remaining weaker VT claims. Math derphammers the real VT claim (for example, you), then the scum team NK and win because it's 1 town - 1 scum alive.
This line of play is the
way scum team can win if they are within you, me, andres and Datisi.
survive today.
For example, let's examine how things play out instead if scum team opt for a bus because they agree they are tactical geniuses. Let's use your FoS within the VT; andres and I, as the scum team in this example:
Today (D3) there are the four claims to test within you, me, andres and Datisi. There are 6 town - 2 scum so Town has one ML. andres busses me and nightkills the investigator.
Now pay attention to this next part:
now that andres has bussed, there are
weaker VT claims for town to test because I am dead. andres can't role block the vig because andres doesn't have multitasking and andres is killing the investigator. So on N3, the vig decides to shoot one of the remaining weaker VT claims (for example Datisi.) In this example the vig shot gets to go through and the bussing scum, andres, is relying on the vig to miss the shot or it's instantly game over, AND once the vig misses the number of weaker VT claims to test is reduced from
to
.
Now if the scum team has taken this line of play, and the bussing scum has been able to survive N3, then tomorrow (D4) there are 4 town - 1 scum, and the last scum who bussed is hiding within
of the weaker VT claims, who in this example are you and andres. andres is a tactical genius so his bus convinces town to mislim the other weak VT claim, who in this example is you. Great. andres NKs the vig, and now enters limlo on D5 as the final weak VT claim, where he will be quickhammered by House and Math for a town win.
Now look at the state of the game, including the vote count, and your stated FoS. The scum team is 2 of andres, you, Datisi, and I unless you're going to pursue a marginal path otherwise, which is completely within your power to do so. However,
scum team is within the 4 weaker VT claims,
SCUM TEAM CAN EXPECT TO LOSE IF THEY BUS.
A scum team among those four
win if a real weaker VT claim is eliminated today (much more swing the execution onto any of the other players). Seeing as you and I are each part of those four, and
of the other two are currently voting me, in a day where
must survive to have a chance to win, do you not find it a little strange that you
prefer to join my wagon?
