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Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:26 am
by Infinity 324
Not cop, I’m pretty sure everyone who could be cop checked in?
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:28 am
by Infinity 324
Dave, I'd also like you to talk about your reads.
I think claiming JK unprompted when liltih did is a pretty good play as scum, it could've gotten mena limmed and it's pretty low risk.
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:30 am
by petapan
not cop, if that wasn't clear enough already. only person it could be is dave and i don't think dave is cop.
Infinity 324 wrote:Dave, I'd also like you to talk about your reads.
I think claiming JK unprompted when liltih did is a pretty good play as scum, it could've gotten mena limmed and it's pretty low risk.
weren't you...just saying it was unlikely yesterday?
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:33 am
by Infinity 324
I'm reconsidering because of things I can't talk about atm. I'm still not sure it's the most likely, but maybe someone suggested the play to her.
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:34 am
by Infinity 324
Like, PoE is getting pretty real for me, and if lilith is town it's the most wrong I've been on a scumread in a long time. Every time she posts I want to lim her.
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:41 am
by petapan
In post 2978, Infinity 324 wrote:I'm reconsidering because of things I can't talk about atm. I'm still not sure it's the most likely, but maybe someone suggested the play to her.
no one here seems that sort of gutsy and if you were going to do it menalque seems a rather poor target
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:47 am
by Infinity 324
I guess? I think she wanted to claim her real JK target in order to not get CCed later on. Like I do think the claim is +town for her overall but that’s not enough at this point.
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:54 am
by Hoopla
In post 2981, Infinity 324 wrote:I guess? I think she wanted to claim her real JK target in order to not get CCed later on. Like I do think the claim is +town for her overall but that’s not enough at this point.
i'm not usually one for sheeping dead townies in any big way, but skitter's read on lilith surely needs to be factored into the equation. it's probably tilting me in the direction of limming there, but it means there's something screwy happening mechanically which is the main feeling holding me back.
like, for lilith to be scum, it means scum either no-killed N1 with the intention of faking a guilty on menalque (if so, why do it on menalque - he's not exactly a sitting duck).
OR a doc made a save N1, then scum came up with that plan on the fly at the start of D2. that's a rather creative line to cook up on the spot. if this is the case, i feel it probably rules out certain scumteams that don't have that "thinking-on-your-feet" creative zeal in them (as there's no way lilith thinks up that on her own). JV & BB would be the main characters i'd rule out from thinking this up, with players like SS, infinity & maybe dave as potential scum mastermiinds.
either way, for a mechanically minded player like me, probabilistically, it still feels like we're veering into the realm of conspiracy, but given we've mis-limmed thrice, and there are no obvious standout scum (or scum pairing combos), i'm willing to entertain conspiracies.
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:56 am
by Infinity 324
I’ll take it as a compliment that you think I could’ve come up with that play, but you’re overestimating me
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:00 am
by Something_Smart
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:01 am
by Hoopla
how's this for a conspiracy:
lilith and menalque are actually
both
scum. they no-kill N1 with the intention of lilith "claiming a pseudo-guilty on menalque"
knowing
that the "guilty" won't be enough to get menalque eliminated D2, but in turn have effectively distanced and ruled out anyone ever considering them as a scum pairing.
...if this is actually what happened N1, just give them the scummy right now.
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:07 am
by Hoopla
she's barely been present all game.
it seems to me that "faking a pseudo-guilty" in that spot would be such a keenly acute play that displays a level of awareness of the current gamestate that i just haven't seen from her.
i guess the counterargument to that is, faking a pseudo-guilty on a player like menalque in and of itself implies a lack of awareness.
either way, if lilith is scum, i don't think that play came from her brain.
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:15 am
by petapan
i'm not sure anyone currently alive is likely to think of that play as scum and to be honest i'm not sure we have a doctor so i'm not sure it's worth discussing lilith today
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:16 am
by Infinity 324
In post 2982, Hoopla wrote:either way, for a mechanically minded player like me, probabilistically, it still feels like we're veering into the realm of conspiracy, but given we've mis-limmed thrice, and there are no obvious standout scum (or scum pairing combos), i'm willing to entertain conspiracies.
Also hoopla is mindmelding with me too much to be scum here.
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:17 am
by Hoopla
i take it nobody is claiming cop? i think that was everyone.
In post 2970, petapan wrote:the question is, does scum gamble on cop still being available at 4/5/7, risking a valuable pick on a purely preventative play when roles with more utility are available, or are they more likely to take a flyer on it low in the draft when they're unlikely to get anything useful
tricky question. i mean, cop still has some value for scum in early picks as it's paired with 1-shot redirector. if scum aren't going to go for vigs, picking 1-shot redirector is a pretty cool role to create chaos (plus blocking a powerful town role). i think it's likelier in the 4/5/7 bracket than the lower picks, but that's just intuitive speculation.
we'll probably be able to narrow it down more with more claims, which is another reason to complete the massclaim.
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:20 am
by petapan
i'm just gonna say it: i think not_mafia is probably the neighborizer, because virtually no one else in the game would have neighborized dunnstral.
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:22 am
by Infinity 324
Peta who’s scum?
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:23 am
by Hoopla
In post 2987, petapan wrote:i'm not sure anyone currently alive is likely to think of that play as scum and to be honest i'm not sure we have a doctor so i'm not sure it's worth discussing lilith today
if there's no doctor, that would be a spanner in the works, as it implies that lilith must have stopped the kill or scum deliberately no-killed.
whereas if there is a doctor, it gives a little more equity to lilith being scum as it enables universes where there was a doc save and lilith fakeclaims a guilty, without there needing to be a scum no-kill N1 (which seems like a pretty low% play).
problem is, outing a potential doctor now to get more info about lilith's alignment doesn't seem worth it.
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:24 am
by Not_Mafia
I am the neighbouriser
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:28 am
by petapan
probably you or menalque lol
In post 2992, Hoopla wrote: In post 2987, petapan wrote:i'm not sure anyone currently alive is likely to think of that play as scum and to be honest i'm not sure we have a doctor so i'm not sure it's worth discussing lilith today
if there's no doctor, that would be a spanner in the works, as it implies that lilith must have stopped the kill or scum deliberately no-killed.
whereas if there is a doctor, it gives a little more equity to lilith being scum as it enables universes where there was a doc save and lilith fakeclaims a guilty, without there needing to be a scum no-kill N1 (which seems like a pretty low% play).
problem is, outing a potential doctor now to get more info about lilith's alignment doesn't seem worth it.
the doctor is essentially worthless given the remaining roles on the town side. no value in staying hidden if there are no roles worth protecting (do not tell me a 1-shot watcher is that valuable)
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:30 am
by Hoopla
In post 2994, petapan wrote:the doctor is essentially worthless given the remaining roles on the town side. no value in staying hidden if there are no roles worth protecting (do not tell me a 1-shot watcher is that valuable)
this is a near-certainty to be town and worth protecting:
or at the very least, people's solves shouldn't include this slot.
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:30 am
by Menalque
you know what would be really funny
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:32 am
by petapan
yeah, figured. JV neighborized uncrowned night 1, right?
minimum 1 in 5 in {me, infinity, menalque, dave, smart}.
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:32 am
by Something_Smart
In post 2990, petapan wrote:i'm just gonna say it: i think not_mafia is probably the neighborizer, because virtually no one else in the game would have neighborized dunnstral.
Lol.
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:33 am
by Menalque