Mafiascum.net

In post 298, beeboy wrote:If Ranger was being scumread and had wrong reads I don't understand why she would be killed.
It could indicate that Rask is scum but meh.

Er.
1: Day 1 lasted like 2-3 days. Those early reads would shift 100 times and Ranger was an IC. Fear-killed, maybe?
2: People who were a strong general townread would be more likely to be protected.

Also, I never said she was scumread. I said she wasn't such a strong townread as you make her out to be. I also never said her reads were wrong. Fighting strawman must be fun.

In post 299, F-oh-ex wrote:You didn't really answer my question. This brought nothing to the table, except maybe some Information Instead of Analysis right now. And IIRC Ranger wasn't such a strong general townread. Hell, she wasn't even #1 popular townread.

Also, your thesis was that Ranger was killed to silence her and her reads. That's a bold statement and you conveniently didn't mention the part that it's a huge WIFOM. In hopes of trying to make us go after Ranger's reads, perhaps? That would give you a huge towncred since Ranger mentioned you once as your top scumread.

I don't like this argument. If Ranger was either going to burn herself or another townie into the ground why was she killed?
If inevitably the outcome was lynched townies is killing for wifom really worth it?

pedit: Applying the logic Ranger would be fear killed without applying the logic she could be protected purely for being skilled isn't a fair argument.
ppedit: She was being scum read as far as I could see.

"If Ranger was either going to burn herself or another townie into the ground why was she killed?"

I implore you to read what I've just written - day 1 lasted 2-3 days, those early reads would shift 100 times. Assuming that Ranger would lynch a mislynch, after 3 days of IRL time, is just dumb.

Protecting the general town read > protecting IC tbh.
If she was scum read so strongly, fearkill makes all the more sense.

Now let me excuse myself so I can do some studying before sleep. Also, if I reply tomorrow, it'll give me time to take a step back and look at it rather than drive this conversation into a pointless 1v1.

Fox, I understand your concern towards beeboy knowing too much, but I think you two are getting into nitty gritty details that aren't really necessary.
In fact, if what beeboy is saying is true, it makes a lot of sense: Sad was lynched, so the only person that leaves as scummy to ranger is Vandit. Guess who has been under a great deal of scrutiny lately: vandit.
Second, if you're saying that protecting general townread>protecting IC, that leaves 2 possibilities.
From what I can tell, the 2 general townreads were Rask and I: the only one that scumread ranger by the end of the day was rask, so if rask was scum, that leaves only me. However, if I was general town read mafia would probably have chosen to kill me, but the kill succeeded on ranger, meaning that A) they weren't going for me (and the only 2 people I found not suspicious were you and rask, so I probably pointed fingers at them at some point) and B) they thought ranger was more of a threat than me (which, considering ranger could have easily been a lynch candidate for pushing the VT sad, makes no sense: ranger's reads were correct).
This means that vandit is extra scummy-looking now.

However, since ranger's out of the picture, beeboy was mostly inactive and sick, and rask was relatively townread (and still appears to be so), there is quite a high chance that this is a newbie scum team. This team could have easily not thought my above idea through (ranger would harder to lynch than some other player, which she really wouldn't have been). In fact, with all the evidence pointing to vandit, all of us pretty much glaring at vandit, and you (as the only one not really doing that) seeming to have read progression noticeable enough for a more experienced player like rask to trust (not dvds or something like that), it's also possible that the scum team is vandit+dvds. The vandit dvd team is extra notable considering that vandit whined about even me being unproductive/inactive, but completely ignored dvds, the MOST INACTIVE ONE (extra scum point for vandit, I just noticed that). If that is so, then vandit was probably making most of the decisions (or perhaps all of them), as dvds seems to be straight up gone. Vandit could have easily gotten irritated at ranger (appeared to be so during the day), plus ranger scumread vandit, so ranger was, to vandit, a very viable choice for a kill.

Now here's the thing: that goes directly against beeboy's theory that there is a roleblocker involved. Beeboy, response?

tl;dr-If beeboy's theory is wrong then a vandit+dvds team is highly likely

Vote Count 2.2

Vandit24 (2):

Zyf, beeboy

beeboy (1):

F-oh-ex

No Vote (4):

mhsmith0, Raskolnikov, Sickofit1138, Vandit24

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

Deadline is Monday, June 20, 2016 at 4:00 PM CST, which is in (expired on 2016-06-20 16:00:00).

mhsmith0 replaces dvds12.

In post 281, Sickofit1138 wrote:

@Mod

I'm not talking about that, I'm talking about how Nesbit said he was sick in bed for awhile and Vandit using it for his advantage. He explicitly called him a lier out of game context and stacked him for it. Maybe just me but there is a rule conserning that. This isn't about respect of privacy this is about a personal attack. I wouldn't want to play in this environment and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

Accusing someone of avoiding the game thread (even by means of accusing them of lying about IRL issues) does not fall under personal attacks/harassment. I understand what your concern is, but I don't believe it has crossed the line at this point.

Hey all! Took a quick skim through the thread but want to spend more time before really developing opinions. I'll try to have something more useful to say by tonight.

I look forward to it, mh

So one thing I like to do is play around with VCA (voting count analysis). It's obvious pretty limited given no wolf flips and just a pair of town flips, but it can at least provide something of a high level look at the game so far (and can potentially be filled in in more detail on later days):



Notes/thoughts:
1) Vandit's hammer was terrible (duh). The question is whether that was a mafia hammering trying to roll the dice at hitting a PR, of if it was a townie making a dumb move. In my last newbie game, YA lol-hammered Radja on day 1 and was mafia (and in fact his slot won it on 3p LYLO), but that's a sample size of 1. Still, that combined with his over-reaction to Ranger's (IMO pretty mild) push on him (143) makes him pretty likely mafia IMO.

2) The key D1 voting sequence (IMO):
157: Vandit votes Sick to make it 3-3
167: Sad votes Ranger, Sick off L-2
173: Rask votes Vandit
197: Zyf votes Sad, L-1
205: Vandit votes Sad to hammer

What this suggests to me is that Vandit's hammer of Sad was motivated by the fact that he'd been under some fire (Rask voted him, Ranger had stated heavy suspicion of him). A part of me wonders if it's Zyf-Vandit, and this was a "let's just get D1 over with" sort of thing, but I feel generally ok about Zyf otherwise (the sheer level of effort they've shown is difficult to fake as newb!wolf as far as I can tell), and I don't think that Zyf would want to risk tying himself that closely to Vandit on D1 if they were the team. Plus, in the absence of day chat, I feel like the 207-230 sequence would be difficult to coordinate and pull off (if there was day chat, i'd be more suspicious). So while there's maybe a bit of doubt here, I actually feel good about Zyf-Vandit not being the wolf team.

3) Presuming Vandit is mafia, I feel like 258 plausibly spewed one of his buddies. If Vandit feels like he's going down today (which seems likely), some distancing on his buddy would IMO be a fairly likely response. I'd actually lean beeboy (I didn't like 298 and the implied "Ranger had me as strongest town { 91 was her last reads list} ), but that's not a strong read for me right now (more of a gut thing IMO).

All that said, I agree about the wisdom of not quick-pushing L-1 (at least not until I've slept on it) and risking another lol hammer, so for now just



PS My gut says that the Ranger shot was mainly a SPK (strong player kill), as opposed to necessarily being indicative of her D1 reads being especially good or bad. The downside of this is that we've lost a strong player, but the upside is that we didn't lose a PR, and that could prove a really big deal going forward (it was a pretty big deal in my last newbie game, where we mislynched twice but then nabbed KAAG on D3 because of the PoE that came out of having a surviving doctor AND a surviving strong town read [me in that case]).

Oh goodie. Nice to hear your reads.

Fox replace in isn't sounding bad, I'm reading through the thread again in ISOs to get my read solidified.

FYI I'm DVD replace in, not FOX.

Oh lord fail. Never mind fox is still most likely to be scum in my yearbook

In post 313, Sickofit1138 wrote:Oh lord fail. Never mind fox is still most likely to be scum in my yearbook

Do you mean that FOX is most likely to be vandit's buddy (per 269) or do you mean he's independently wolfy?

He is most likely scum buddy with wolfy vandit.

Hmm. I'll dig into that one a bit more. How do you think they're moving together? Pushing beeboy of late? More than that? I don't think the D1 sad wagon especially tied them together, at least given the timing of the votes.

Because we had nearly the same amount o posts when vandit was accusing me of lurking, yet he has been completely ignoring fox. They are playing with the same style and just FEEL like scum partners.

In post 317, Sickofit1138 wrote:Because we had nearly the same amount o posts when vandit was accusing me of lurking, yet he has been completely ignoring fox. They are playing with the same style and just FEEL like scum partners.

I need to double check that point, but I'll buy that as at least plausible presuming it checks out. IMO Vandit is probably the priority at this point, though.

I agree.

^I've been agreeing with everything sick has explained about fox scumbuddy and vandit scum.
Honestly just to add I kinda want to lynch vandit solely based on toxicity and the fact that they look pretty scummy is a sweet bonus.

In response to me voting sad: I had no idea vandit was gonna frikin QUICKHAMMER sad. It's just that no one was agreeing enough to vote sick as mafia, so I figured I may as well put pressure on sad as they were going to /have/ to talk at L-1. Unfortunately, well, you know, vandit happened. e.e

In post 309, mhsmith0 wrote:3) Presuming Vandit is mafia, I feel like 258 plausibly spewed one of his buddies. If Vandit feels like he's going down today (which seems likely), some distancing on his buddy would IMO be a fairly likely response. I'd actually lean beeboy (I didn't like 298 and the implied "Ranger had me as strongest town { 91 was her last reads list} ), but that's not a strong read for me right now (more of a gut thing IMO).

I'm finding it hard to believe you read vandit's ISO and somehow came up with vandit/beeboy.
Barring some kind of pregame plan (and vandit was a replace) I'd rule out vandit pretty much abusing beeboy the entire game as distancing.

In post 293, F-oh-ex wrote:The fact that you mention offsetting protective action seems like Too Much Information for me. You seem to suggest Doctor/Jailkeeper would be on Ranger and that Mafia Roleblocker tried to target them (what else could be the "offset"?).

I think you just revealed too much. Too Much Information, maybe scumgloating, too? Either way, I think you are either Mafia RB or a partner of one.

VOTE: beeboy

Err, before you caught up on vandit and formed an opinion (280) you scumread beeboys NK spec?
How can you even discuss the nightkill if you haven't looked at vandit (rangers 2nd scumread)?

In post 322, Raskolnikov wrote:

In post 293, F-oh-ex wrote:The fact that you mention offsetting protective action seems like Too Much Information for me. You seem to suggest Doctor/Jailkeeper would be on Ranger and that Mafia Roleblocker tried to target them (what else could be the "offset"?).

I think you just revealed too much. Too Much Information, maybe scumgloating, too? Either way, I think you are either Mafia RB or a partner of one.

VOTE: beeboy

Err, before you caught up on vandit and formed an opinion (280) you scumread beeboys NK spec?
How can you even discuss the nightkill if you haven't looked at vandit (rangers 2nd scumread)?

What's weird about commenting on something that catches your eye and rubs you wrong?
Oh no, how did I dare discuss the nightkill, aaaaaa!!!

But how can you be confident it was/wasn't based on reads without reading the game?