I do have the game solved. I haven't tried to solve it yet in the event that we lynch Nero today.
If there's a solution that doesn't involve Naomi throwing a fit, we should take it.
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 5:44 am
by Shadow_step
Mort why is Nero town if scum are no killing. He just could be scum who didn't kill.
Also when the JK target is already outed. Scum literally do not have a reason to not kill the cop. It's just impossible.
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 5:48 am
by MortFeld
In post 3026, Shadow_step wrote:Mort why is Nero town if scum are no killing. He just could be scum who didn't kill.
Also when the JK target is already outed. Scum literally do not have a reason to not kill the cop. It's just impossible.
If scum kill the Cop, we get a confirmed townie (Nero). If scum no kill, the Cop gets a result. Confirmed townie. So if by "Scum literally do not have a reason to not kill the cop" you mean that scum have equivalent reasons to kill the Cop, and to not kill the Cop, then sure I agree. How does this mean that scum would never no kill?
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 5:49 am
by MortFeld
And I never said that Nero is town? I'd put money on his being scum.
But why bet when I can just take a sure thing?
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 5:51 am
by MortFeld
If Nero is scum, we only have to wait a maximum of two extra days using my method. If Nero is town, then my method was necessary (maybe, haven't worked out the alternative) and we can lynch someone else. I don't think there's a scenario where we spend forever Cop confirming everyone.
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 5:54 am
by Shadow_step
Meh didn't consider that.
But I've already explained how this game is Auto win. If NC is town. Scum can only be between me/LUV/Naomi. One of them gets jailed. If there is a kill that townie is confirmed and we have 2 lynches 2 suspects. If there is no kill we get a extra lynch. 3 suspects 3 lynches.
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 5:58 am
by Shadow_step
Arc has to just say who she jailed yesterday and who will jail tomorrow.
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 6:18 am
by MortFeld
Spoiler: analysis
Day 1. Players Alive: 8
We lynch Nero.
Shadow
LUV
Mort
rb
Chaos
Naomi
Nero
Arc
Green = confirmed town. Blue = PRs.
Night 1.
Scum kill Arc or Chaos. Probably Arc. Arc jails Naomi. Chaos doesn't get a Cop check.
Day 2. Players Alive: 6
Shadow
LUV
Mort
rb
Chaos
Naomi
Arc
We lynch LUV.
Night 2. Players Alive: 5
Shadow
LUV
Mort
rb
Chaos
Naomi
Scum kill Chaos.
Day 3. Players Alive: 4. MYLO.
Shadow
Mort
rb
Chaos
Naomi
We lynch Shadow.
Night 3. Players Alive: 3. Town wins.
Shadow
Mort
rb
Naomi
This assumes Chaos is Cop. If Chaos is scum, the tree diverges before he is killed.
Night 2. Players Alive: 5
Shadow
LUV
Mort
rb
Chaos
Naomi
Scum kill a confirmed townie. Say, rb.
Day 3. Players Alive: 4. MYLO.
Shadow
Mort
rb
Chaos
Naomi
We lynch Shadow.
Night 3. Players Alive: 3
Shadow
Mort
Chaos
Naomi
Scum kills Naomi.
Day 4. Players Alive: 2
Mort
Chaos
Naomi
Scum win.
At Day 3 we're in MYLO. Say we No Lynch (which we should do today instead).
Day 3. Players Alive: 4. MYLO.
Shadow
Mort
rb
Chaos
Naomi
No lynch.
Night 3. Players Alive: 4
Shadow
Mort
Chaos
Naomi
Scum kills Naomi.
Day 4. Players Alive: 3. LYLO.
Shadow
Mort
Chaos
Naomi
Town win. There has to be a confirmed townie still up, whoever is unconfirmed but town will know that Chaos is scum.
I'm convinced. Town wins even if Chaos is scum, assuming we No Lynch at MYLO. We just need confirmation of who Arc is jailing tonight since she's the likely nightkill if Nero is town.
I'm salty at Shadow, who tried to convince me that I was wrong without doing the work. Naomi tried but she didn't do all of the necessary work.
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 6:28 am
by Shadow_step
Chaos cannot be scum.
There is no way town only have a 1 shot big and JK as town PRs against a scum team which has a 1 shot strongman which can counter the JK.
1 shot vig if it kills a townie it loses us an ML.
Basically game is horribly scum sided of Chaos isn't actually a cop.
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 6:38 am
by MortFeld
Chaos can be sum. Nothing rules it out, though a number of things make it a nearly impossibly thin possibility, including the setup.
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 6:59 am
by MortFeld
Oh yeah. Arc is V/LA until the 8th.
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 7:08 am
by Shadow_step
FFS why
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 7:10 am
by MortFeld
Not sure. I just know she is.
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 7:38 am
by ChaosOmega
In post 3033, Shadow_step wrote:Chaos cannot be scum.
There is no way town only have a 1 shot big and JK as town PRs against a scum team which has a 1 shot strongman which can counter the JK.
1 shot vig if it kills a townie it loses us an ML.
Basically game is horribly scum sided of Chaos isn't actually a cop.
This.
In post 3030, Shadow_step wrote:If NC is town. Scum can only be between me/LUV/Naomi. One of them gets jailed. If there is a kill that townie is confirmed and we have 2 lynches 2 suspects. If there is no kill we get a extra lynch. 3 suspects 3 lynches.
This.
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 9:51 am
by keyenpeydee
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 11:49 am
by rb
Look just sheep mort he's such a beautiful human and so very town this game that it's almost painful to watch ppl not sheep him
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 11:51 am
by rb
The problem is I'm pretty sure scum are just gonna No Kill no matter who we jail and so I feel like taking a shortcut but I guess the scum know they can't ever win doing that so it's just being a dick for no reason other than being a dick and making the game boring, so maybe they'll still try to KEEL.
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 11:51 am
by rb
I'd totally NoKill for like 10 yrs straight tho just as a running joke for maximum LULZ
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 11:51 am
by rb
I've come to view this game as, 'the game that will never end' and am prepared to vote No Lynch for the next 10 years of my existence.
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 12:21 pm
by Naomi-Tan
Erm... Okay, Mort. If chaos is red. we'll know as he'll be alive in lylo with everyone else confirmed. K?
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 12:22 pm
by Naomi-Tan
alternatively we no lynch tomorrow if nero isn't red and do things your way and prevent a loss. The math still works out if we only lynch once right Mort?
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:45 pm
by MortFeld
In post 3032, MortFeld wrote:
I'm convinced. Town wins even if Chaos is scum, assuming we No Lynch at MYLO.
I already said this. Problem is that we need a JK tonight for the game to be 100% solved, and Arc is V/LA.
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:45 pm
by MortFeld
In post 3045, Naomi-Tan wrote:The math still works out if we only lynch once right Mort?
Only if we get a JK tonight.
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:46 pm
by MortFeld
But yes it doesn't matter when we no lynch. We can do it tomorrow or the next day.
Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 3:37 pm
by Naomi-Tan
Geez... Okay 1 no lynch.. then we can kill right? and flip correctly right?