Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Game Over!

[Menalque]

I'm just trying to figure out why lili bothers using her JK at all last night if this is what they were going for

[Infinity 324]

I guarantee you someone on the scum team is going for a big brain play. I just don’t see who it would be other than mena

[Menalque]

what sort of big brain play would I be going for here that makes sense exactly?

unless you think that this is literally the scumteam trying to pull a gambit, but honestly, it'd be easier to just elim probably like BB -> peta for the win

[petapan]

kill on skitter did plausibly imply cop hunting but it'd be unusual for scum to RB either player if they have a hidden rb sitting somewhere (lilith targeting either makes sense regardless of alignment)

[Infinity 324]

what sort of big brain play would I be going for here that makes sense exactly?

Idk but my senses are tingling. Simplest one was lying about being RBed to avoid making up results.

[Infinity 324]

would be*

[petapan]

what sort of big brain play would I be going for here that makes sense exactly?

Idk but my senses are tingling. Simplest one was lying about being RBed to avoid making up results.

which would potentially put him in an immediate counterclaim, so...

[Infinity 324]

I really want to stop talking about this until lilith claims her target

[Hoopla]

idk how I could be counterclaiming without knowing for sure if we have a doctor or a roleblocker

I think this is probably a gambit by lili and NM

in my eyes, N_M is 95%+ town, so he's pretty much the corner piece i'm starting with for my solve and i'm working backwards from there.

if you are actually claiming to be blocked last night, that means scum has a RB, which means town can't have a doc. that means lilith is either town or scum no-killed N1.

either way, i'd like lilith to chime in and tell her us her target last night so we can move forward.

[Menalque]

in my eyes, N_M is 95%+ town

why?

[lilith2013]

Calling bullshit on mena. I jailkept NM last night. I think mena is lying about being blocked to avoid having to give more results.

Also mena’s play D3 makes no sense as a cop receiving an innocent result on skitter. I want crumbs.

[Hoopla]

in my eyes, N_M is 95%+ town

why?

neighbouriser has never been picked by scum in PYP X/Y (13-0 so far).

i play the odds.

[Infinity 324]

UNVOTE:

Can we massclaim now?

[Menalque]

I jailkept NM last night.

why?

[Menalque]

UNVOTE:

Can we massclaim now?

absolutely not

[Menalque]

in my eyes, N_M is 95%+ town

why?

neighbouriser has never been picked by scum in PYP X/Y (13-0 so far).

i play the odds.

but this is really bad logic and just fallacious?

[Not_Mafia]

Calling bullshit on mena. I jailkept NM last night. I think mena is lying about being blocked to avoid having to give more results.

Also mena’s play D3 makes no sense as a cop receiving an innocent result on skitter. I want crumbs.

And to think I was going to spam knock knock jokes at Menalque all day, look at what you've cost us

[Not_Mafia]

It's 14-0 now, I'm town

[Hoopla]

i almost think the doc should claim. gives us one more confirmed/high-probability town to work with for a collective solve today, and would prove there's no RB in the setup, which would confirm menalque as scum OR a lilith+N_M team (but i doubt it's that).

[Menalque]

i almost think the doc should claim

absolutely not

[Infinity 324]

Yeah that's what I'm saying. Like without the massclaim lilith, n_m, and mena are all unknowns for me and I'd want to elim dave, but that's just based on PoE.

[Menalque]

here's why the logic is bad on the "neighbouriser is town" thing -- first up, it's not something you can predict purely off've past occurrences. like, problem of induction? but beyond that -- if you're mafia, and you're low down in the draft, why not go for something you think you can get? that's a pretty limited number of roles that might still be floating around. so you plump for this slot, correctly apparently, why not go for neighbouriser? that's almost entirely dependent on JV's personality

[petapan]

well, in no particular order, either:

1. there is a town roleblocker who roleblocked menalque and potentially stopped the kill night 1 instead of lilith
2. there is a town doctor who would be a direct counterclaim to menalque
3. there is a scum roleblocker who blocked menalque
4. menalque is scum and the roleblocker is on his team or there isn't one

i think he's probably telling the truth about being blocked regardless because the potential for someone to just counter him would make it incredibly stupid to do as scum

[Hoopla]

but this is really bad logic and just fallacious?

when you have an overwhelmingly one-sided outcome with the data, you can make logical inferences based upon it. it's obviously not 100%, because a canny scumteam could see this trend and deliberately subvert it.

to me, neighbouriser being scum is in the same ballpark of probability of scum doubling up draft numbers (something that has never happened, but ~theoretically could~).

[Menalque]

Yeah that's what I'm saying. Like without the massclaim lilith, n_m, and mena are all unknowns for me and I'd want to elim dave, but that's just based on PoE.

wait, talk me through this? surely it makes more sense to elim within us even if it was me?