Mafiascum.net

I'm just trying to figure out why lili bothers using her JK at all last night if this is what they were going for

I guarantee you someone on the scum team is going for a big brain play. I just don’t see who it would be other than mena

what sort of big brain play would I be going for here that makes sense exactly?

unless you think that this is literally the scumteam trying to pull a gambit, but honestly, it'd be easier to just elim probably like BB -> peta for the win

kill on skitter did plausibly imply cop hunting but it'd be unusual for scum to RB either player if they have a hidden rb sitting somewhere (lilith targeting either makes sense regardless of alignment)

In post 3027, Menalque wrote:what sort of big brain play would I be going for here that makes sense exactly?

Idk but my senses are tingling. Simplest one was lying about being RBed to avoid making up results.

would be*

In post 3029, Infinity 324 wrote:

In post 3027, Menalque wrote:what sort of big brain play would I be going for here that makes sense exactly?

Idk but my senses are tingling. Simplest one was lying about being RBed to avoid making up results.

which would potentially put him in an immediate counterclaim, so...

I really want to stop talking about this until lilith claims her target

In post 3022, Menalque wrote:idk how I could be counterclaiming without knowing for sure if we have a doctor or a roleblocker

I think this is probably a gambit by lili and NM

in my eyes, N_M is 95%+ town, so he's pretty much the corner piece i'm starting with for my solve and i'm working backwards from there.

if you are actually claiming to be blocked last night, that means scum has a RB, which means town can't have a doc. that means lilith is either town or scum no-killed N1.

either way, i'd like lilith to chime in and tell her us her target last night so we can move forward.

In post 3033, Hoopla wrote:in my eyes, N_M is 95%+ town

why?

Calling bullshit on mena. I jailkept NM last night. I think mena is lying about being blocked to avoid having to give more results.

Also mena’s play D3 makes no sense as a cop receiving an innocent result on skitter. I want crumbs.

In post 3034, Menalque wrote:

In post 3033, Hoopla wrote:in my eyes, N_M is 95%+ town

why?

neighbouriser has never been picked by scum in PYP X/Y (13-0 so far).

i play the odds.

UNVOTE:

Can we massclaim now?

In post 3035, lilith2013 wrote:I jailkept NM last night.

why?

In post 3037, Infinity 324 wrote:UNVOTE:

Can we massclaim now?

absolutely not

In post 3036, Hoopla wrote:

In post 3034, Menalque wrote:

In post 3033, Hoopla wrote:in my eyes, N_M is 95%+ town

why?

neighbouriser has never been picked by scum in PYP X/Y (13-0 so far).

i play the odds.

but this is really bad logic and just fallacious?

In post 3035, lilith2013 wrote:Calling bullshit on mena. I jailkept NM last night. I think mena is lying about being blocked to avoid having to give more results.

Also mena’s play D3 makes no sense as a cop receiving an innocent result on skitter. I want crumbs.

And to think I was going to spam knock knock jokes at Menalque all day, look at what you've cost us

It's 14-0 now, I'm town

i almost think the doc should claim. gives us one more confirmed/high-probability town to work with for a collective solve today, and would prove there's no RB in the setup, which would confirm menalque as scum OR a lilith+N_M team (but i doubt it's that).

In post 3043, Hoopla wrote:i almost think the doc should claim

absolutely not

Yeah that's what I'm saying. Like without the massclaim lilith, n_m, and mena are all unknowns for me and I'd want to elim dave, but that's just based on PoE.

here's why the logic is bad on the "neighbouriser is town" thing -- first up, it's not something you can predict purely off've past occurrences. like, problem of induction? but beyond that -- if you're mafia, and you're low down in the draft, why not go for something you think you can get? that's a pretty limited number of roles that might still be floating around. so you plump for this slot, correctly apparently, why not go for neighbouriser? that's almost entirely dependent on JV's personality

well, in no particular order, either:

1. there is a town roleblocker who roleblocked menalque and potentially stopped the kill night 1 instead of lilith
2. there is a town doctor who would be a direct counterclaim to menalque
3. there is a scum roleblocker who blocked menalque
4. menalque is scum and the roleblocker is on his team or there isn't one

i think he's probably telling the truth about being blocked regardless because the potential for someone to just counter him would make it incredibly stupid to do as scum

In post 3040, Menalque wrote:but this is really bad logic and just fallacious?

when you have an overwhelmingly one-sided outcome with the data, you can make logical inferences based upon it. it's obviously not 100%, because a canny scumteam could see this trend and deliberately subvert it.

to me, neighbouriser being scum is in the same ballpark of probability of scum doubling up draft numbers (something that has never happened, but ~theoretically could~).

In post 3045, Infinity 324 wrote:Yeah that's what I'm saying. Like without the massclaim lilith, n_m, and mena are all unknowns for me and I'd want to elim dave, but that's just based on PoE.

wait, talk me through this? surely it makes more sense to elim within us even if it was me?