Mini Theme 2161: Undertale C Open - Chara's Folly

[Chara]

hmmmmmmmm i dunno why i still think hectic's town but

hectic, am i right in thinking that mafia!tweet never *ever* makes 2952, especially with both her and her partner not voting? that she tries to go for win-by-timeout rather than having to carry for 3 more days?

i do think Tweet is very very town, but i'm wondering what the chances are that scum was totally unaware that they could win this way.

something similar happened in the prequel where Isis explicitly told us partway through the game about a white flag scenario where one of the scum getting eliminated would have been autoloss for us.
it wasn't figured out by the town as a whole until one townie made it known the next game day.

[Chara]

I'd really recommend looking at the last few pages of Day 2 Chara. Super important.

thanks. i'm reading them now.

[Chara]

checking in to say that i have awoken from my sleep

also friendly reminder that if there is no majority by deadline, town will literally just lose because scum will spare not-chara

if you have a green role pm (or are pretending to have it) pls vote k thx

HURT: tayl0r

good night everyone (・ω<)

never mind my entire last post Tweet knew because the post

right before this one

is Tanner explaining it.
it's almost 5, i can drink, right?

[Chara]

i feel so monumentally useless it's kind of amazing.
and yet somehow still very confident in Tweet being town. hubris?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

HEAL: Launchy
HURT: Chara

btw its so hectic

who heals the chara on their first try jeez

[Tanner]

I 100% would have faked falling asleep prematurely had I realized scum wins by doing nothing. I probably would have realized it but i actually didnt as town so I dunno

i dunno. my thought on this is that mafia!tweet reads 2951, sees me saying how "town literally just loses", goes "wait, what?" and actually reads the rules to see what the hell am i talking about. maybe i'm projecting though. idk.

anyway, i took out my notebook and wrote out all 8 possible paths (2spare, spare>fight, fight>spare, 2fight; with scum killing or no-killing on n3) and... i don't get why there wasn't a nightkill. my first thought was "oh, scum is saving 2 of townspewed tanner/tweet/lavender as the two day five public investigations as to give off the least amount of info", but... we get an extra fight.

i thought maybe sparing would be viable (since on the 1-3 path, scum must public-cop one non-spared player) to preserve the "obvtowns" from getting public-copped, but the loss of a fight just doesn't seem to be worth it? the worlds i see right now is (1) scum made a very bad blunder not realizing night 4 is skipped, (2) an extremely deep wolf (a la me or prism?? lmao what) is making a 9000+iq play, (3) someone wants us to believe (2).

i'm afraid i might be missing something since it's 11pm and math is difficult. whoever has the brains for this is welcome to try.

anyway, until further thinking, HURT: krazy.

[Prism]

Puppy also changed his avatar to one with an evil looking grin

I love it

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

its really affecting my re-read

this should not be allowed

[Prism]

Sparing was viable until you reminded me on the Day 4 skip, with the Day 4 skip they straight up gave us an extra fight for no reason.

Without the skipped it still would have been a mistake because it was a completely free spare with the same # of fights

[Prism]

Actually I guess I'm also forgetting the double invest vs. single in the second part, so sparing still wouldn't work, but w/e

[Prism]

tl;dr if you are wrong on how the setup works in two different ways you can spare!!!!!!!

[Chara]

Prism i feel so close to you right now

[Prism]

It all started with the blocks my mom gave me when I was 19. I tried to put the triangular one i the matching hole, but it turns out that one was the square.

[Prism]

My reads and track of setup mechanics are the best evidence I have that my brain is like a big vat of scrambled eggs, cheese whiz, and one very excitable rat

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Imagine reading the rules before playing

We don't deserve Datisi

[Tanner]

your eyes on the

city

ruleset.

[Morning Tweet]

o yeah I thought we were just risking losing an elim before Tanner reminded me it was a total loss if we didnt vote

so yeah I would have known to not vote

i could just say "Oops fell asleep" cause deadline ended during my sleep tim

I briefly considered setting an alarm to do the hammer but i decided the 3 seconds of trolling wasn't worth risking losing the game due to me sleeping thru an alarm

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

4 eliminations and a public cop to nail 1 scum

we got this right towntisi?

[Morning Tweet]

i feel empowered by Tanner's suspicion of Krazy

I did a 10 second skim of Puppy's ISO after the flip and thought "On D2 he kinda seems like he's trying to make it look like he's partnered with Hectic, but in reality he's probably with Krazy"

idk why i thought that and i can't review yet but that was my initial guess. I feel like Puppys D1 doesn't really suggest he's partnered with Hectic anyway

last night i couldn't sleep so I skimmed every ISO and gave everyone towniness ratings mostly independent of flips, i decided on something like:

Prism>Hectic>Tanner>Lavender>Chara>Pooky>Krazy

[Tanner]

ok so i spent like 15 minutes staring at my barely-legible scribbles. i'm trying to see if there's a +EV path than genocide, but... i don't think so. the best i got is that, *if* we collectively agree that tanner/tweet/lavender are locktown because of the day two end, and *if* we're correct on that, *then* by sparing twice (or threatening to) we can force scum to kill tonight (because otherwise we just continue murdering on day 4 and we're back to 4 fights again) and to public-cop one of the "non-locktowns". however, we trade one fight for that, and it's based around those assumptions. so other than a cool thought exercise, i don't see the point.

ugh, the no-kill is making me paranoid, even though i have no idea what's it making me paranoid

of

. i feel like i'm missing something right under my nose.

i need to get up in like 6 and a half hour what am i doing

[Prism]

I'm inclined to think someone just saw the number was even and no killed without realizing it gave an extra fight. That or they just forgot to submit entirely.

Maybe it was me, thinking I could dodge a fight with the "free spare" Ooooooo

[Prism]

My first thought on seeing it was actually Chara forgetting to submit since they were AWOL the last few days, but they definitely were around posting in FGO's postgame thread

[Hectic]

Hectic can you find me a new Chara avatar. is that allowed in an ongoing game.

I'm on it. What you looking for though? Cheerful Chara or bloodthirsty Chara?

[Chara]

My first thought on seeing it was actually Chara forgetting to submit since they were AWOL the last few days, but they definitely were around posting in FGO's postgame thread

i've made many, many, many mistakes as mafia, including nearly submitting a kill on a player that was publicly lovers with my last remaining partner. (the mod stopped me, and then my partner also stopped me.)
but as of yet i have not forgotten to submit a night action.

Hectic: hmmm... i like all kinds. thank you!

[Hectic]

Okay, well, I ended up making a few