In post 3032, TheWayItEnds wrote:
Snork... we're not shooting SiX. His posts are mostly shit, but hes still probtown at this point.
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2014 10:27 am
by PeregrineV
In post 3100, TheWayItEnds wrote:OH MAN MY READS ON THE FIRST COUPLE PAGES OF THE DAY I REPLACED INTO ONLY CAUGHT 2/5 OF THE SCUMTEAM SO FAR.
FUCK ME IM SO BAD.
If you dont know what my read is on 6 is at this point.....
In post 3032, TheWayItEnds wrote:
Snork... we're not shooting SiX. His posts are mostly shit, but hes still probtown at this point.
There's 5 remaining. A helpful post would give your position on them. A more helpful post would say why.
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2014 10:42 am
by TheWayItEnds
... I have also given my thoughts on the others.
In post 3037, TheWayItEnds wrote:
I still think ThAd is town but i have no problems with her shooting DG, PA or SS.
In post 3052, TheWayItEnds wrote:I'm slightly less sold on PA than I was at the start of the day but I still think shes an okay cop/lynch target.
Other than that ff is useless since shes claiming gun.
Out of Egg ThAd DG and SS id probably choose 1 of DG and SS.
But again it seems like im the only one seeing thad town so i dont care. cop thad.
I havent explicitly given a read on Egg at all but since he hasnt shown up in the want to cop or want to vig groups here i think its pretty clear that hes a town read.
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2014 11:41 am
by DeasVail
In post 3027, Snork wrote:it would be DV for praising my investigation on TWIE.
I was praising your investigation on AP, not TWIE.
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2014 12:03 pm
by Snork
ah well for now you're not my worry DV. I had a good town read on you before the talah mess.
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2014 12:24 pm
by Damon_Gant
Cannot believe that matt did not claim that shot. That changes things - no need for an SK anymore.
PV really needs to get lynched. He's all bravado and no substance. I wish I'd have seen it earlier.
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2014 12:25 pm
by Plessiez
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2014 6:45 pm
by fferyllt
Mister Rogers - Penguin Alien
97 - calls out ThAd for playing like a low experience player wrt bjc.
111 - doesn't feel like a scumbuddy post Neither does 199
249 - looks like town analysis. I know a few meta players who can churn this out without working up a sweat as scum. Might meta dive some of his games depending on how the rest of the iso goes.
253 - also looks like town analysis despite misreads. I remember Yates replacing into a game a few months ago. He was scum, but did a great job of towning it up early. 255 he walked the read back due to Nero's triple-vote?
285 - mentions 2 people are voting PV for scummy reasons. those two were....Yates and RachMarie. More fuel for town-MR.
363 - the yates push on pere is enough to draw his vote. this makes me question pere as part of their scumteam given the timeframe. I doubt yates would have bussed this early.
459 - this post really pulled together the loose ends and questions I had about the players he was pushing and why. I really have difficulty imagining this kind of interaction with scumbuddies, especially the daytalk angle.
Mister Rogers' last 150 or so posts of are just painful to read after seeing how talah was set up by scum-Mastin early on day 1, didn't know how to process it, didn't know how to recover, and his reads and stances fell apart. The last half of day 1 really sucks to read, especially knowing that talah was apparently killed by a town teammate on night 1. There is probably some useful stuff in terms of Mister Roger's observations about other players, but I can't extract it tonight.
I feel pretty confident he was town. So the sentiment about PA that was expressed after I replaced in doesn't make a lot of sense, especially given the way AP kept discrediting her on day 2.
Let's see what her ISO shows.
1662 - she's got issues with all three flipped scum.
Reading on from there, the evolution of her mastin read looks natural. I liked her irritable snaps about being warned off from commenting on a scum read, and her overall irritability at times. In the games I've played with scum-PA she's been emotionally very neutral for the most part.
From iso it's hard to see what led to the day 2 snowstorm scumread. Would like some clarification there.
2418 - peng in this post you voted my predecessor. I'm going to go ahead and ask why you seemed to so easily accept my role claim this morning. The fact that there are two killers claiming vig-joat and x-shot vig doesn't mean both or even either are town.
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2014 6:50 pm
by ThAdmiral
In post 3057, Snork wrote:Ok so SiX is going to bodyguard me, ffery is going to shoot someone not ThAd within {SnowStorm, DG}, and I'm going to investigate ThAd.
Plan sounds good to me, although I'd say the shot should be out of DG and PA instead of snowstorm. Both AP and Mastin pushed pretty hard for a snowstorm lynch.
I think its weird that town have two vigs, but I don't see any reason why fferylt would claim the kill as scum. As scum all it would have achieved is to put unwanted attention on her and made it so town decided her kill rather than shooting who she wanted.
As someone else said scum surely don't have an rb as they would have used it on snork last night, so either way we should get a result tonight.
Current clear and reads list is:
Cleared:
Snork
TheWayItEnds
DeasVail
Vigs:
SiX
fferyllt
town reads:
Egg
SnowStorm
remaining:
PeregrineV
Damon_Gant
penguin_alien
don't see a way we can lose it from here if we just keep working via process of elimination.
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2014 6:57 pm
by ThAdmiral
Assuming 5 scum.
11 players, 9 town, 2 scum
If we mislynch - 10 players, 8 town, 2 scum (5 clears)
if fferylt hits town - 9 players, 7 town, 2 scum
mafia kill one of the clears - 8 players, 6 town, 2 scum (4 clears)
snork will have another result, making 5 clears, so even in a worse case scenario we go in to tomorrow with 6t:2s of which 5 are clears.
yeah there's no way we lose from here
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2014 7:01 pm
by fferyllt
You're assuming scum don't have a doc. You're assuming both "town" killers are town.
You're probably making other assumptions, too.
I don't have a full grip on the gamestate yet but this complacency worries me.
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2014 7:45 pm
by fferyllt
In post 3057, Snork wrote:Ok so SiX is going to bodyguard me, ffery is going to shoot someone not ThAd within {SnowStorm, DG}, and I'm going to investigate ThAd.
Alright PV. I'm interested to see those.
Is there a reason why you don't have a pool of at least 2 players to choose from?
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2014 8:54 pm
by penguin_alien
ffery, I'm assuming you're responsible for the N2 kill in the absence of a counterclaim, and claiming it falsely makes no sense anyways. Technically nothing here is inconsistent with a second three-man scum team either, but that would involve a SiX-projectmatt/ffery team where SiX claimed 2-powered JOAT in advance of Rach's claim (explicable if there's a rolecop function) but really kind of a reach. You were getting town read for your entrance in advance of the claim; from what I've seen of your scum game (Mini 1526, 1531 off the top of my head) you don't tend to make giant crazy plays. If we get unexplained kills going forward, i.e. multiple strong town reads dying in a single night, yeah, living players should revisit this. But multiple vigs fits with the way gunsmith appears to work here.
Bottom line, I believe your claim because it makes things make sense. For you to be an SK your kills would have to have been missed or overlapped on N1 and N3 and even as disconnected as projectmatt was, I find that less likely. Also don't think he'd have been as apologetic about replacing out if he was a third party. Apologizing implies a sense of responsibility to a faction at least.
SnowStorm-wise, I just really didn't like the abortive attempt to wagon ThAd from him and Snork. Of the two, I thought SnowStorm was more likely the scum. And I realize that this is hypocritical to a degree since I tried to wagon aptil upon catching up, but all I can say is that I really hated both wagons and was under the impression from the VC I most recently remembered that momentum was growing for an aptil wagon.
In terms of my SnowStorm read, I also admit looking back on it I did what I tend to do on scum reads and explain more fully after voting. Not sure if being engaged on my read/vote helps me express my thoughts more clearly or if I'm just inherently lazy, but I'd ask if you understand my point on SnowStorm more fully from reading the parts of my ISO after I vote him?
When I voted projectmatt, I kind of wanted to see how others reacted to it. In terms of overall coherency, I was coming off V/LA, and I'll admit I was dragging a bit. Not to mention that as of this VC:
it was literally the only potential wagon on someone I wasn't town reading that didn't have scum reads on it aside from mastin2, and I was being thrown a bit by AP's defense of mastin.
In terms of SnowStorm and him possibly being bussed, at the time he was being pushed there was an intact scum team with a core of town-read Yates and usually hard to lynch mastin and AP, especially given the overall player list. I wouldn't be at all surprised if someone else was being bussed, and IIRC mastin's push on SnowStorm was a less stable push than her push on Damon_Gant.
I kind of agree with you about Yates not bussing PV so quickly out the gate. I also quite frankly don't get scum-PV vibes, and I've seen him as scum a fair amount and as scum in the later stages of the game. He tends to go all reasonable and neutral when his teammates disappear. That's not happening here.
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2014 9:18 pm
by penguin_alien
More tomorrow on the triple ISO of doom. Out of time, out of steam, but not convinced PV is the best lynch for today. So please no ending the day until ffery talks more and I and others get more thoughts on record...
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2014 9:51 pm
by SiX
UNVOTE:
Posted: Sat Apr 26, 2014 1:17 am
by DeasVail
Ok, going with
Vote: PeregrineV
I am cautious because his posting does feel town, but I feel there are better reasons for not lynching the others and what I keep coming back to is that in-thread Day 1 mason thing with AP, which comes across as showy to me more than anything else on reread.
Posted: Sat Apr 26, 2014 2:51 am
by Snork
UNVOTE:
That actually leads me more towards townPV than anything else.
Posted: Sat Apr 26, 2014 4:47 am
by Egg
Why are people assuming that a normal game could have a scum doc with a restriction that they can't kill? No scum kills have come up missing. No vig shots have come up empty (as far as we know). There is literally no reason to make this assumption. Deas and TheWayItEnds are confirmed town unless we run out of PoE or something says otherwise
On the Pere unvotes, we could always lynch ThAd and gunsmith Pere...
Posted: Sat Apr 26, 2014 4:47 am
by Egg
Or maybe even lynch Damon. He's showing up 2nd or 3rd on most people's lists I think.
Posted: Sat Apr 26, 2014 4:49 am
by Snork
I don't really know where the idea that the doctor wouldn't be able to kill came from, but it's stupid; dismissing the possibility of a mafia doc existing is also stupid.
In post 3057, Snork wrote:Ok so SiX is going to bodyguard me, ffery is going to shoot someone not ThAd within {SnowStorm, DG}, and I'm going to investigate ThAd.
Alright PV. I'm interested to see those.
Is there a reason why you don't have a pool of at least 2 players to choose from?
I am cautious because his posting does feel town, but I feel there are better reasons for not lynching the others and what I keep coming back to is that in-thread Day 1 mason thing with AP, which comes across as showy to me more than anything else on reread.
Who are "the others"? And what are the reasons for not lynching them?
That actually leads me more towards townPV than anything else.
I can understand this and could easily be wrong, but when I think about it I see much more reason to do it as scum with a scumbuddy (the best way I could describe it is hipster distancing), than as town, where I don't really see much reason at all?
I am cautious because his posting does feel town, but I feel there are better reasons for not lynching the others and what I keep coming back to is that in-thread Day 1 mason thing with AP, which comes across as showy to me more than anything else on reread.
Who are "the others"? And what are the reasons for not lynching them?
PA- I had a strong townread on Mister Rogers and not really a scumread on PA. I believe I may have been too premature in giving a townread to Rogers, but it still makes a PA a less desirable lynch in my mind. I also consider her reaction to Snork's gunsmith claim to be a bit weird and perhaps less likely from scum for that reason.
Egg- I like how he's been very pro-town. I think that BipolarChemist would have been more into the game after pulling off the dayvig thing so successfully. I liked Egg's reaction to Rach and her role/claim.
SiX- His claim makes a lot of sense with Aptil's but the lack of perfect fit makes it less likely from scum imo. Also, he was the first to claim a two-power JOAT when we know that Rach was a two-power JOAT, so I'm pretty sure he's a two-power JOAT and more likely town.
Ffery- I thought PMatt was town. I think you're town.
SnowStorm- Double vote from AP and Mastin is my main reason for holding off here, but there were also some posts from him from ISO that made me think town.
DG- Probably the closest to PV in terms of lynch desirability. His posting does generally come across as the kind that could be from scum except for a couple of small things that make me think town (e.g. the quick vote on AP and his thoughts matching mine there). Also nothing that makes me go hmm like the Day 1 Mason thing from PV.
ThAd- Yates maintaining suspicion on him after losing both Mastin and AP in such a short space of time (the mastin wagon being largely his doing) seems strange as I'd see scum more likely to hold off on the bussing for a while here. Yates does tend to have an aggressive playstyle here so it's possible that he was just doing that with a scumbuddy too, but the timing does not seem right for that.
Posted: Sat Apr 26, 2014 3:34 pm
by SnowStorm
VOTE: ThAd.
I can't shake away my scum read on him and I can't find anything that could point towards him not being partnered with mastin/Yates/AP. There was mastin's town read on him, which I thought could be a point in his favor given that she was town-reading town players a lot with little explanation, but it's possible that she'd throw in a partner in those unexplained town reads. Then there was Yates's "bussing" prior to his demise, after checking that I don't think he was bussing ThAd, I think he was just staying consistent, besides, he was in a pretty good spot after mastin's flip, a ThAd scum flip could prove to be more beneficial to him in the long term.
Another thing that makes me keep pushing for this lynch is the fact that no apparent scum voted for him or pushed for his lynch when he was viable on day 2.
At this point AP is defending ThAd and explaining how his Nero-rage was so town. He also tells Yates that he doesn't like the mastin lynch and asks him about ThAd, which I would interpret as "lets give it a shot at mislynching thAd" if he weren't defending him so hard, so it could also be a "tell them how town ThAd is" call. It's just weird that both my wagon and Way's peaked with more votes, which included scum votes, while ThAd's never got more than 4 and no scum votes (unless Egg??...).
I don't buy that scum would not want to try lynch ThAd because he was so obviously town, like mastin argued, because he wasn't. He was suspected by enough people that his lynch was still possible without much scum interference. So the fact that scum didn't push for his lynch is weird, scummy weird.
