I'll take another look at ThAd when I get the chance.
Posted: Sat Apr 26, 2014 6:50 pm
by ThAdmiral
In post 3110, fferyllt wrote:You're assuming scum don't have a doc. You're assuming both "town" killers are town.
You're probably making other assumptions, too.
I don't have a full grip on the gamestate yet but this complacency worries me.
Our information is growing, while the scum numbers are dwindling. Unless there's somehow 6 scum, which I really doubt, we have at least two mislynches left plus all the night results.
I just don't see how we can lose it from here.
Posted: Sat Apr 26, 2014 7:38 pm
by SiX
But Snow, why would ThAd try to get Nero lynched together with RachMarie and when it didn't go through, suddenly shoot Nero?
ThAd wouldn't have gained anything from killing Nero Cain. More preferably RM in that case.
Posted: Sat Apr 26, 2014 9:12 pm
by Plessiez
Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2014 2:12 am
by SnowStorm
In post 3127, SiX wrote:But Snow, why would ThAd try to get Nero lynched together with RachMarie and when it didn't go through, suddenly shoot Nero?
ThAd wouldn't have gained anything from killing Nero Cain. More preferably RM in that case.
Rach looked like a possible mislynch when he started pushing her. I doubt he thought he could lynch Nero, that push reads like an attempt at getting some town cred, which is confirmed by AP townreading it without even questioning it (it was one of those dumbed-down moments of him. It doesn't make sense that he'd dumb down to townread town for a bad reason).
As to why he NK'ed them, both became conf. town, they were optimal kills even for him. Keeping them both alive would have been dumb, and for what? It'd be even dumber to keep pushing them. Besides, he's in a team, even if NK'ing someone may not be beneficial to one of them it could be to the others, in this case it was beneficial to everyone.
Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2014 8:08 am
by TheWayItEnds
Prod Dodge.
Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2014 11:10 am
by Damon_Gant
I hate to kinda prod-dodge, but I've had a very tough couple of days. If things remain difficult, I may be forced to make the decision to replace out in the next couple of days, but I really wish to avoid that.
Vote: PeregrineV
Back to L-2, I don't see many permutations in this game where PV is not scum.
Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2014 12:47 pm
by SnowStorm
I think I'd rather lynch Damon than Pere. I don't really oppose to his lynch since I don't get any strong town vibes from his posts, but I just find ThAd and Damon to be much scummier.
I've given many chances to my Damon read, but every time I get back to him I can't help getting a scum read. His posts suck, his reads suck and his pushes suck! And not in a sucky-town way. I also don't get a scum-hunting feeling from his posts and he fits as a partner to mastin/AP/Yates.
If anyone seriously has a town read on him, please explain.
Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2014 1:19 pm
by Damon_Gant
Just came here to apologise for my last post, I've kinda reflected and realised it probably wasn't right for me to mention the possibility of replacing like that. With a couple of hours to calm down from the situations, I've realised I really don't need to replace out, I just need to sort out the way I'm looking at other things in my life. I hope to not have to even allude to real-life situations again like this because that's something I generally don't like.
I've been "Hm-Hm" reading Damon's posts for a while aswell and I'd not oppose the lynch. Unfortunately I can't really tell why, it's just like something is missing.
Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2014 6:01 pm
by penguin_alien
I recall town-reading Damon independently of issues with mastin pushing him, but I don't recall why at the moment. Will look into that...
Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2014 8:40 pm
by DeasVail
I've decided I don't want to lynch ThAd today.
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2014 4:59 am
by Snork
In post 3129, SnowStorm wrote:I doubt he thought he could lynch Nero, that push reads like an attempt at getting some town cred, which is confirmed by AP townreading it without even questioning it
You seem to have forgotten what AP flipped.
Let me remind you.
HE WAS SCUM.
So this really doesn't make sense.
I have completely lost my train of thought on this game. It's dragging out unnecessarily. Who are we lynching today? I'll vote where Ffery votes.
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2014 5:10 am
by fferyllt
I need to finish going through isos, but it's extremely helpful seeing the thoughts of players who lived in the thread during the previous 3 days.
Pere and ThAd are on today's to-do list. If that doesn't burn up all my free time, then I'll do Damon_Gant or DV next.
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2014 5:48 am
by Plessiez
Egg hasn't posted for over 48 hours and hasn't arranged a V/LA. He has therefore been prodded.
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2014 5:59 am
by PeregrineV
In post 3066, PeregrineV wrote:SnowStorm- There was some mid game play that I read from SnowStorm as town. Since a lot of it was reaction to other players, I'll want to go over his iso again to see if those players are town or scum. Also, will look for specific Snowstorm mentions in the tri-iso.
In post 122, SnowStorm wrote:Damon is ignoring everything that's happened in the game so far to focus on something alignment irrelevant
Yup. As stated in note 4, it's annoying but totally null. At least ThAd seems to be a little more focused on the
reaction
to being called out on it than the statement itself - which is a legit angle to pursue. Gant trying to paint the statement as being as scummy as he did in post 104 is the kind of "narrative" that I expect to see from scum trying to paint a statement as WAY more scummy than it actually is.
Mastin agrees with Rodgers/PA (Zdenek=town)(Snow=town)(BiPolerEgg=town)(Yates=town)(Matt=town)(Pere=Null-to-scum)
In post 469, mastin2 wrote:
Which continues into the next. I don't understand the 4nx read. I don't see why Damon's just null and not scum. I also don't get the leaning scumread on me. Basically, the only reads I agree with are Zdenek, Snow, Chem, Yates (and he's a stronger-than-nulltown read), and Matt (same). And he takes back the Yates read the very next post. And the PV one, too. It's deeply, deeply concerning to me, considering that I was synching up fairly well overall with him earlier in the game.
In post 611, PeregrineV wrote:I would rather lynch bjc, but would consider Luca, maybe Aptil, maybe Snow. Probably not 4nxiety or DV or BiPolar out of the low posters.
Out of the high posters, cases require more validity. Only ones I'd really consider at this point are talah and pisskop.
Why snow? I cant actually recall anything hes posted which is probably a bad sign for him. If we're lynching lurkers I would support bjc (mostly policy) and aptil (latest post read a little forced, meh).
Talah is just blatantly scummy this game and I have mixed emotions about pisskop but have him a little on the scummy side of the fence and he seems like a lynch people would actually compromise on.
Aptil talking only about people with less post counts then him is pretty lazy and the "Nero has 4 posts but it may as well be 3 because ones a double" in particular made me .
In post 1269, SnowStorm wrote:Anyone who has doubts should just ISO him. It worked for me.
I don't like this post. Like - at all. Please provide the points that caused YOU to read Talah scum. No one can defend against "read ISO." It's also lazy posting and gives you an easy excuse to jump on a leading wagon while providing no information about your alignment after a flip. Commit to your read.
we don't even need to go into particular arguments
,
talah has the second highest post count and all his effort has been put in overreacting to people and generating mostly pointless arguments
. That's not how you play as town.
To the bold - You really REALLY do need to get into "particular arguments."
To the underlined - what would you expect to see from someone trying to defend against "read the ISO?"
Need to check what exactly Yates' snow read was. I thought he was not liking his posts, implying they were coming from scum.
In post 1431, Yates wrote:Also... post 1412 was appreciated and has me feeling better about my Snow read.
More AP "reads" (1481)
In post 1481, AngryPidgeon wrote:This Luca wagon looks like the exact same shit. Probably someone on the Luca wagon early is scum (matt?) and Talah and someone else helping swing the luca lynch over Talah (RM/DV?).
The only vote on Talah Im extremely worried about is aptil. Snowstorm feels town to me and Rogers/PV are town.
More AP reads. Will need to check on evolution later.
In post 1806, AngryPidgeon wrote:Town: Nero, Peregrine, Anxiety, aptil (pretty town for vig claim)
Probably town, want to talk to them more: Yates, mastin
Town? Possibly stale reads, could be (probably is?) a scum here: Snork, PA, Snowstorm, Damon Gant
Meh: Pmatt, RM
Scummy: TheWayItEnds, Bipolar, ThAdmiral, DV
Yates on Snow
In post 1817, Yates wrote:
SnowStorm is playing a good game. I have him leaning Town but my confidence is shaky. When I start thinking I may be wrong, he responds with a strong post or good logic when pressed. I haven't played with him enough to know what this means but I don't remember him being this - logical? focused? organized? - in Rocky Horror.
This is starters... more later.
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2014 9:17 am
by Egg
Ow
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2014 9:27 am
by Snork
What's the conclusion from those observations, PV? I don't really follow.
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2014 10:46 am
by PeregrineV
In post 3143, Snork wrote:What's the conclusion from those observations, PV? I don't really follow.
I haven't made any yet. These are the posts that I'm pointing out to myself/others.
I'll review them again for strength of meaning when I finish each player, and then strength against each other when all are done.
Interactions, reads and votes. In his first posts he comments on how he disagrees with mastin and how he doesn't like her reaction to his first post. He describes her play as "bleh" and her reads as "garbage" and accuses her of spoon-feeding us her meta. He explains why he disagrees with her reads and then instead of voting mastin he votes Luca? I mean, what was the point of that focus on mastin if it didn't lead to anything? She was voting him and calling him scum, he disagreed with her reads and mumbled about her play and whether or not it fit her meta and stuff. Then he confirms he had a gut scum read on her but that after checking her meta became a town read. He also checked Luca's meta and became happy with his vote on him. So on one hand he had mastin, whom he suspected with reason and in the other he had Luca, whom he was voting for because he felt his vote was "more useful" there (than on bjc). And the one thing that makes him chose one over the other is meta. Very convenient. It's also worth noting that Damon hasn't played in 2 years, so his meta reads come solely from their past games and not from his experience; also worth noting that his meta read of Luca was pretty inconclusive:
"Luca pretty much doesn't have a meta, with as far as I could see, only 1 finished game to speak of. None of Luca's posts from that one game read as scummy as the one post Luca has here. I reiterate - I'm happy with my vote."
In conclusion, it's pretty odd that he'd rather vote someone who had barely any content, than push for someone whom he did apparently suspect with good reason, only because of some questionable meta reading.
More, later on day 2, mastin keeps pushing him and he keeps disagreeing with her. See how in this post he turns another good reason to suspect mastin, into a reason to suspect me (whom he ended up voting in his next post):
vanity, as far as I'm concerned the whole charade of staying off the main wagons was vanity for all those involved, and it's the kind of posturing that I am wary of.
Except I was right:
Both wagons were on town.
Thus, attempting to get a wagon
not
on one of them wasn't vanity; it was sanity.
Wow, I didn't realise this! Both wagons did turn out to be on town! Well I'll be blown. Of course,
you placed your vote on another incorrect wagon so whatever. As I said, I think not being on either of those two wagons on Day 1 does not even begin to give town cred of any sort. The most likely people to be "right" about that sort of thing are scum in my opinion.
Later in that post you did say possibly the first thing I agree with you about though. SnowStorm's recent posting has been very scummy in my eyes. This is a lead I'm going to chase down and try and pinpoint exactly
what
has changed about SnowStorm's posting that has made me feel like this, because I don't find reasonless accusations of scumminess to be very useful.
So here we have two cases where he starts by going against mastin and manages to end up voting someone else. On day one he ended up on Luca when he was explaining how he disagreed with mastin's town read of Luca. On day two he ended up on me when he was pointing out how staying off the main D1 wagons, like mastin did, was scummy.
Damon/Yates: Some mild interaction. He called Yates a lurker, got called out on it and retracted it, admitted it was a mistake. (maybe it wasn't? maybe he did know Yates had been lurking?). Yates is a little more aggressive with him and accuses him of scum-slipping, but he stays very passive and polite and denies having Yates as a scum read. There's nothing wrong with being polite, but I get the feeling that Damon didn't want to go against Yates, which could have led to him having to scum read him.
Damon/AP: His interactions with AP aren't very meaningful and are very passive. So there's no reason to rule out this pairing either.
Lets look at these two posts now with general tiers and reads:
Spoiler:
Day one:
In post 725, Damon_Gant wrote:
Scum: Luca, aptil, 4nxiety, SnowStorm, bjc
Null: Pisskop, mastin, Nero, yourself [MR/PA], Rach, Yates, DV
Townreads to some degree: Everyone else
day 2: (with bonus mastin slightly scum read)
In post 2157, Damon_Gant wrote:
My thoughts on mastin are that I'm leaning slightly scum - a lot of really odd reads and very keen to dissociate herself from the wagons yesterday. If you'd like to tell me what is so
interesting
about my "hops" (very suggestive word that I don't think fairly portrays the very different ways I entered those 3 wagons) then I'd be more than happy to discuss this with you.
As I'm struggling to provide too much meaningful content to this game at this juncture, here's a list of where I roughly stand on every player. Hopefully it sparks some discussion, and I'm happy to discuss any point in more detail.
4nx
: has been a consistent scumread of mine but something about his play today and reading his meta has made me feel meh.
weak scum
AP
: Didn't think he came off well from his argument with Snork defending Rach. Everything else is fine though.
null
aptil
: The claim.
strong town
DV
: If some players have a naturally scummy tone, I feel like DV has a naturally town tone. When I carefully try to discard that,
null
Egg
: Not much to say about Egg, but about the predecessor I myself liked the fake vig incident and am
moderate town
mastin
: I've said what I had to say about mastin.
leaning scum
Nero
: Has tunnelled the Mister Rogers/penguin_alien slot. Really difficult for me to get a read on.
null
penguin_alien
: People started strong townreading this slot early on - including myself - but it got to the point where so many did this I felt uneasy. penguin_alien came in, played a lot less like obvtown, and yet now I feel happier about this slot because the contribution seems more genuinely protown, at least to me.
leaning town
PeregrineV
: I definitely felt like he was town on Day 1, but I'm struggling to locate the posts in his ISO that lead me to this. I've used the phrase "provocative in the right ways" before and that's roughly how I felt here I think. So far Day 2 he has been meh.
leaning town
projectmatt
: Coasting hard. Sometimes posts like town, sometimes not so much like in #605 where he claims there were "bigger fish to fry" than Luca on Day 1 but fails to name anyone.
null
RachMarie
: The worst vote on the Luca wagon yesterday. Calls pisskop "the scum off both wagons" on Day 1 - but pisskop wasn't really around to make a decision on these wagons so how he can be implicated for this is absurd. Nully play otherwise,
leaning scum
Snork
: Not a fan of bjc, the predecessor to his slot, but Snorks seems protown to me - genuine scumhunting.
moderate town
SnowStorm
: My vote is here for reasons I have stated.
moderate scum
ThAd
: As he noted in #2114, my read on him has been here and there. I think it's a matter of a problem I have with his posting style. He's made some good posts, and I'm
leaning town
right now.
TWIE
: I could not get a read off pisskop for the life of me - but he made me feel uneasy. TWIE also makes me feel very uneasy for similar reasons. This excess of sarcasm. His last post, #2117 is horrible - and perhaps the one post of TWIE's I can point to and say that it's definitely indicative of scum.
leaning scum
Yates
: Honestly no idea what to think of this, and the subject of my next detailed ISO read.
null
Lots of "leaning" going on, but this is just honesty. Few of my reads are particularly strong at this juncture - but then from my observation I think the same is true of most people in this game.
Notice how in day one all of his scum reads are town and how Yates and mastin are so awkwardly comfortable in his null tier. It's as if he didn't know what to do with them, as if he was afraid to give a solid town read on mastin and afraid to give a scum read on Yates.
Now the second post: Look how mastin is a scum lean now. He mentions her having really odd reads, which he had noted early day one and dismissed due to meta, but now for some reason he felt the need to lean scum on her. It's a pretty safe/weak scum read. Now look how AP and Yates are both null. I actually think his Yates read was accurate in the sense that he didn't know what to do with it, but AP's? Everything's fine except for an argument where he defended Rach. It looks like scum-awareness, plus he might have felt the need to point out he didn't like it because he was scum reading Rach, probably implying a possible connection between the two. Meaning that if Rach were to flip, the negative point on AP would be nullified. Overall those reads were all pretty weak, pretty foggy, leaving plenty of room. Also to note again that except for his slight scum read on mastin every other scum read is town.
Overall, his stance on the three flipped scum, especially mastin, is very odd and much more likely to come from a scum partner than from a town player, even from one having a bad game. Not to mention his non-existent scum-hunting; his safe, passive attitude and his bad scum-reads, oh and his scummy as hell posting/writing style.
In post 3129, SnowStorm wrote:I doubt he thought he could lynch Nero, that push reads like an attempt at getting some town cred, which is confirmed by AP townreading it without even questioning it
You seem to have forgotten what AP flipped.
Let me remind you.
HE WAS SCUM.
So this really doesn't make sense.
I have completely lost my train of thought on this game. It's dragging out unnecessarily. Who are we lynching today? I'll vote where Ffery votes.
FFS Snork, get a hold of yourself. There's no need to rush, we have time to think and that's what we're doing (I speak for myself at least) and I'm not just going to blindly follow you, Ff or anyone else, you shouldn't either.
Now, are you saying scum do not town read each other? Yeah, you're clearly not following my thought process. ThAd's Nero-rage read unnecessary, fake and anti-town to me. I'm still of the opinion that he did it to get town cred, going from the principle that emotion/rage/stubbornes are generally seen as town traits. I did not think it was genuine at all and I didn't think a ton player would so easily town read him for it, which AP did, AP, someone who appeared to be thoughtful and rational town read that awful post without a second thought. Now why would scum town read something that actually looked bad? Something that could have been used against ThAd eventually. I'm inclined to think that they wouldn't. But that's not why that's scummy. What's scummy was that AP automatically gave thAd the town cred he was looking for with that post, not only that, he spells it out to us.
In post 2325, AngryPidgeon wrote:Do YOU see Thad's latest bout of frustration aimed specifically at Nero being from scum? That emotion is pretty hard to fake and I dont see why scum would do something so likely to draw attention, especially from Nero who is tentatively voting people who arent Thad. Its just town rage. Pretty sure.
See how he emphasizes how un-scumlike that post was. He's not exactly explaining why it was a town post, he's implying that by saying how it is so not a scum post. This is really naive. He straight up denies the fact that scum try to mimic town behavior in order to look town, which is basic mafia, and he does so to call ThAd town. As I said previously, this was one of the instances where AP dumbed down in order to achieve a specific opinion/read, convenient to him. It was not convenient for him to dumb down to town-read town, especially considering how bad ThAd's posts was (even from a town POV) and how bad dumbing down makes him look. But it would be convenient for him to town-read ThAd and help him get some town cred from other players.
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2014 9:26 pm
by Plessiez
ThAdmiral hasn't posted for over 48 hours and hasn't arranged a V/LA. He has therefore been prodded.
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2014 10:10 pm
by DeasVail
I'll look at the recent big posts when I'm not so tired.
.