Mafiascum.net

I'll T-T Ank/Maria if BitDunn has one scum and then I'm pretty sure game is won on this fact alone.

Other T-T I see as possible are GRob-Creature (Mostly Creature) and then I guess I'm following Kagami's read on Gaiden.

In post 3125, unwnd wrote:I'll T-T Ank/Maria if BitDunn has one scum and then I'm pretty sure game is won on this fact alone.

i feel ok agreeing with this

Kagami + SXTLHGaiden is almost always TvT
MariaR + me is almost always TvT
unwnd + popsofctown is almost always TvT

Golden Robster + Creature is very likely TvT, pending a check on GR that I'll do later
Firebringer +Shiro is probably TvT (Firebringer is hilariously obvtown and Shiro is still comfortably in his townrange), not really interested in sorting that until I have to

Deasvail + Cephrir <--- DeasVail is likely scum, Cephrir rarely is
Dunnstral + Bitmap <--- Bitmap is likely scum, Dunnstral rarely is

In post 3067, popsofctown wrote:Creature if I randomly named 5 people day 1 in the first post of the game, one average 1 would be scum, right?
If four flipped town, would the fifth one be more likely to be scum?

Yes

This is fine

VOTE: DunnBit

hey creature if i flip a coin 10 times and get heads every time what are the chances my next flip will be heads

In post 3127, Ankamius wrote:Kagami + SXTLHGaiden is almost always TvT
MariaR + me is almost always TvT
unwnd + popsofctown is almost always TvT

Golden Robster + Creature is very likely TvT, pending a check on GR that I'll do later
Firebringer +Shiro is probably TvT (Firebringer is hilariously obvtown and Shiro is still comfortably in his townrange), not really interested in sorting that until I have to

Deasvail + Cephrir <--- DeasVail is likely scum, Cephrir rarely is
Dunnstral + Bitmap <--- Bitmap is likely scum, Dunnstral rarely is

overconfidence is a slow and insidious killer

In post 3125, unwnd wrote:I'll T-T Ank/Maria if BitDunn has one scum and then I'm pretty sure game is won on this fact alone.

Other T-T I see as possible are GRob-Creature (Mostly Creature) and then I guess I'm following Kagami's read on Gaiden.

i know you read the post where i told you not to print all of our townreads before intermission
why are you trying to gamethrow on me

In post 3131, Cephrir wrote:

In post 3127, Ankamius wrote:Kagami + SXTLHGaiden is almost always TvT
MariaR + me is almost always TvT
unwnd + popsofctown is almost always TvT

Golden Robster + Creature is very likely TvT, pending a check on GR that I'll do later
Firebringer +Shiro is probably TvT (Firebringer is hilariously obvtown and Shiro is still comfortably in his townrange), not really interested in sorting that until I have to

Deasvail + Cephrir <--- DeasVail is likely scum, Cephrir rarely is
Dunnstral + Bitmap <--- Bitmap is likely scum, Dunnstral rarely is

overconfidence is a slow and insidious killer

well guess what cephrir

my d1 reads are either great or terrible

and my most consistent scumread throughout d1 just flipped scum

that seems like a coincidence

just like how it's a coincidence that people wanted Bitmap to be flipped until the dance started?

what i mean is that the idea that your d1 reads are either great or terrible seems like a coincidence

In post 3130, Cephrir wrote:hey creature if i flip a coin 10 times and get heads every time what are the chances my next flip will be heads

50%

but seeing that as a whole, it's unlikely for 11 heads in a row to happen.

Has DV provided any updates to 2367 in your pt, Ceph?

In post 3137, Creature wrote:

In post 3130, Cephrir wrote:hey creature if i flip a coin 10 times and get heads every time what are the chances my next flip will be heads

50%

but seeing that as a whole, it's unlikely for 11 heads in a row to happen.

great so why couldn't you figure that out when pops asked you about the list of players

In post 3138, Kagami wrote:Has DV provided any updates to 2367 in your pt, Ceph?

no

we haven't really gotten to much, he seems busy

In post 3139, Cephrir wrote:

In post 3137, Creature wrote:

In post 3130, Cephrir wrote:hey creature if i flip a coin 10 times and get heads every time what are the chances my next flip will be heads

50%

but seeing that as a whole, it's unlikely for 11 heads in a row to happen.

great so why couldn't you figure that out when pops asked you about the list of players

Because I was seeing the list as a whole.

Ok but what I didn't tell you creature is that there's another random list in my back pocket and it overlaps with 4 town 1 unknown slot only in having the unknown slot on both lists.

But this other list is 2 scum, 2 town, 1 unknown.
So this other list makes the unknown slot less likely to be scum to get closer to that 1/5th average.


How can list1 push down and list2 push up at the same time?

I will be here tonight to go through things and provide reads.

I seriously believe a lot of people have taken a super basic approach to reading me which is weird and oddly concerning?

should I be townreading you???

well fuck. i was wrong about oka.

In post 3127, Ankamius wrote:Firebringer is hilariously obvtown

suuurreeeee ank. sure.