With 22 hours left I'm not going to be able to do much more in the way of serious ISO analysis. Sorry I didn't get more done during the time I've had toDay.
Snork, I'd like for ThAd to be in my shoot pool if he's not lynched today.
Since we disagree so fundamentally on the last one I did, I'm kinda meh about this. :/
Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 7:50 am
by Snork
In post 3201, fferyllt wrote:Snork, I'd like for ThAd to be in my shoot pool if he's not lynched today.
What would that do to your gunsmith choices?
Fferyllt:
Will PV's flip change anything in the pools? It wouldn't really for me as it's fairly PoE at this point.
You can have ThAd.
I'll look in {Egg/PA/
X
}
That leaves you with {
Y
, Snow, SiX}
Where
X
and
Y
depend on the lynch:
If PV is lynched, my X will be DG, and your Y will be ThAd.
If ThAd is lynched, my X will be DG, and your Y will be PV.
If DG is lynched, my X will be PV and your Y will be ThAd.
Does that look ok or would you like to trade someone else?
Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 7:54 am
by fferyllt
That looks good. All three will get a thorough ISO with known scum before I decide where to shoot.
Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 8:01 am
by Snork
I'm having a hard time deciding between ThAd/PV for today's lynch. PV's latest activity and analysis looks pretty decent, though the DG analysis seems rather biased and rose-colored if that makes any sense.
I've had serious doubts about ThAd being scum as well, beginning on D2, especially after AP's flip, but I can't figure out if his switch on Nero D2 was a town reaction to being pushed incorrectly or badly, or if it was scum attempting to discredit him. Nero's flip doesn't help me decide.
I'm happy to follow your vote, Fferyllt, especially since he's all but disappeared from here except to vote.
These need a whole heck of a lot more explanation.
ThAd needs more context. Rach is always a low-contributor in games; you have to read the mindset, not the content. Aptil is a newb, who I have a decent ability to read. Nothing about BPC looks like scum to me. Nero and DV also don't look like scum, 'specially not Nero. (I can read Nero fairly well, and this is his townplay.) The DG/pisskop reads also need explanation.
Not much ThAd stuff, but first that stands out is Mastin pointing out
Snork's
"bad read" of ThAD. If ThAd were town in the scumpile, I see no point in Mastin trying to "explain in context". Possibly, to maintain the reasons for his ThAd=town read, but why even mention this post at all? Also, no attack on the Damon_Gant townread given.
As usual at the conclusion of the day I find myself saying that I'm happy where my vote is, but I will move it to *insert other wagon here* (in this case ThAd) if necessary. I will certainly be about close to the deadline.
As usual at the conclusion of the day I find myself saying that I'm happy where my vote is, but I will move it to *insert other wagon here* (in this case ThAd) if necessary. I will certainly be about close to the deadline.
Mastin wants an explanation of why snork lists you & TWIE as town, but does not provide one on his own. He does, however try to explain why the scumreads are wrong. 3 of those flipped town. One was cleared as No-gun. The other is ThAd.
If those were all actual town being misread as scum, there would be no reason to Mastin to disagree with it. He could more easily say, "Yes, I agree", furthering Snork's scumreads on town players.
Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 10:04 am
by fferyllt
Doc Holliday/Pisskop/TWIE
Just a passing comment on Doc Holliday - I think I have one game with him and IIRC he was an SK. His slot went through a ton of replacements and I'm pretty sure he wasn't town but not enough to go back and look. It was your large normal, Pere.
Anyway, his posts come off with a ton more stance than what he posted in that game. Reading them results in a mild town sense.
Pisskop put more into the game. I like his early posts, especially his approach to bjc which is pretty much where I would have been if I'd been playing at that point...I think. Hard to say as a replace-in.
410 - the read support looks townminded. His suspicion of Yates looks genuine.
424 - this post reminds me that in the first game I played with Pisskop his thought process and sentence structure was MUCH harder to follow. He was town. One of the things I noted when I meta'd him in that game was that in his only completed game at the time his posts looked much more thought out as scum (the completed game). So his posting here doesn't have that scattered feel to it. It could be an artifact of computer vs phoneposting.
437 is good analysis. I think this is a relatively early mastin-scum read (overall in the game thread iirc but I'm mostly reading the thread in ISOs)
465 looks like way more effort than one scum player would put into fabricating a read on another. I'm tempted to just stop right here and call them town.
471 feels like a good, confident pushback to pere.
476 this walkback of his impression of Mister Rogers also looks town.
Loved his pushback to Zdenek. "get bent or get a case" sounds town as fuck to me.
I srsly want to call the slot town solely on the basis of pisskop's tone and stances.
1921 doesn't look like scum-scum interaction with AP to me.
[post]1977[/post] neither does this with yates. Given both AP and yates were pushing him this looks like opportunistic scum smelling town blood.
2080 - the main thing I don't like about this post is that there's no mention of yates in it. Otherwise it feels like a decent reads list with enough against the grain thinking that it gives me townfeels.
2117, 2159- more yates interaction that doesn't look scum-scum.
2161 building on that and finishing with an AP vote. Holy shit guys, 2/3 of the scum team was on this guy. Look at this vs their interactions with each other.
whole lot of posts I like but am not going to comment on because I hate walling
2597 coupled with 2616 just looks awesome to me. He had no scum motivated reason to pirouette off a town lurker wagon and onto the Mastin wagon.
Read through the rest of his ISO but I'm not going to comment on it except that Pere pushing this slot makes Pere look scummy as fuck, except I've seen Pere's scumhunting go utterly weird places before.
Pere, I'd really like for you to explain how CONTEXTUALLY you could possibly see the interactions between this slot and known scum as scum-scum.
Future gamestate changes should take care of whether SiX or I need to be of concern. He shouldn't be in either pool IMO.
Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 10:09 am
by PeregrineV
In post 3216, fferyllt wrote:Pere, I'd really like for you to explain how CONTEXTUALLY you could possibly see the interactions between this slot and known scum as scum-scum.
Snork cleared TWIE as no-gun. So I could do the above, but it'd be kind of a waste of time.
If a no-gun player is some GodFather or mafia doc role, then my choice for it would be DV.
In post 3216, fferyllt wrote:Pere, I'd really like for you to explain how CONTEXTUALLY you could possibly see the interactions between this slot and known scum as scum-scum.
Snork cleared TWIE as no-gun. So I could do the above, but it'd be kind of a waste of time.
If a no-gun player is some GodFather or mafia doc role, then my choice for it would be DV.
Your push on him prior to that revelation though. Just wow.
I know we approach the game really differently based on past experience. But still.
Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 10:18 am
by Damon_Gant
In post 3215, PeregrineV wrote:Mastin wants an explanation of why snork lists you & TWIE as town, but does not provide one on his own. He does, however try to explain why the scumreads are wrong. 3 of those flipped town. One was cleared as No-gun. The other is ThAd.
If those were all actual town being misread as scum, there would be no reason to Mastin to disagree with it. He could more easily say, "Yes, I agree", furthering Snork's scumreads on town players.
Ok, I now get what you're saying. It's a fair point.
Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 10:22 am
by fferyllt
So, I've been trying to figure whether I'd buy a scum doc plus 2 town who would result in 3 false reads for the gunsmith makes sense. I'm leaning no but it's a very slight no.
Which is why I wanted to develop a read on the gunsmith inno player. If there is a scum-doc, I seriously doubt it's TWIE.
In post 3216, fferyllt wrote:Pere, I'd really like for you to explain how CONTEXTUALLY you could possibly see the interactions between this slot and known scum as scum-scum.
Snork cleared TWIE as no-gun. So I could do the above, but it'd be kind of a waste of time.
If a no-gun player is some GodFather or mafia doc role, then my choice for it would be DV.
Your push on him prior to that revelation though. Just wow.
I know we approach the game really differently based on past experience. But still.
Well, when you consider that so far this game,
I had
talah
as scum
I had
luca
as scum
I had
AP
as town
I had
Yates
as town
I had Mastin as scum
I had
ThAd
as town
I had
Penguin (as Rogers)
as town
I had
Damon
as town
I had
Egg (BiPolar)
as town
And the last four as part of the PoE in which there are 2 scum,
I'm doing pretty shitty.
Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 10:41 am
by TheWayItEnds
Oh look. Someone else sees the reasons I thought the gunsmith clear on me was a total waste.
In post 3216, fferyllt wrote:
2080 - the main thing I don't like about this post is that there's no mention of yates in it. Otherwise it feels like a decent reads list with enough against the grain thinking that it gives me townfeels.
Yates is in 2080, he just didnt get spaced out properly. Should be just under my ProjectMatt read about halfway through.