NY214: Project Pinecone (Game over! Town wins!)

[Pine]

==> Vote Count 3.1 <==

With 13 votes in play, it's 7 to lynch!

Flavor pending.

[L-4]

MagnaofIllusion - Ausuka, Skygazer, profii

[L-6]

Ausuka - MagnaofIllusion

[L-7]

brassherald -

[L-7]

the worst -

[L-7]

Gamma Emerald -

[L-6]

Skygazer - Raskolnikov

[L-7]

Inferno390 -

[L-7]

Chickadee -

[L-7]

HeWhoSwims -

[L-7]

Raskolnikov -

[L-7]

Taly -

[L-7]

Nosferatu -

[L-7]

Profii -

Nursing their beer (Not voting)

- brassherald, the worst, Gamma Emerald, Jingle, Chickadee, HeWhoSwims, Taly, Nosferatu

No prods as yet, but half the playerlist are well over half way to a prod.

(expired on 2018-08-18 09:30:00)

[Skygazer]

sorry chicka i'll nix the shitposting

[Ausuka]

Anyway.

Town

Raskolnikov- Town by loyal fruit vend.
brassherald- Town by loyal fruit vend.
Gamma Emerald- Town by being nightkilled n1.
Jingle- Not a mechanical clear but pretty much the towniest slot outside that. Inferno's pushes on dram/MOI/Nos read as town- especially if one/both of the last two flip red. Additionally, the Visitor role fits with the theme of the game, which is newish Normal roles that didn't use to be Normal. Prime-Night, Loyal, Vengeful, Detective, non-weak Hider, Loud... do you see how Visitor fits this perfectly? And a Mafia Visitor in a town this stacked seems unlikely when Mafia probably already have a Fruit vendor.
Chickadee- There probably wasn't a MOI-Nos-Chick chain fake clear gambit. I hope there is but there probably isn't.

Townlean

Skygazer- This is conditional based on MOI flipping scum, which I see as likely. If MOI flips town this can be scum- I've made my reasoning earlier. As it is I don't think MOI and Sky crossbus like this and I think MOI when being townread did legitimately want to see Skygazer hanged. This is a slot you revisit when it's endgame and you're out of scum candidates but not before then please!
profii- Ridiculously apathetic to the point where I'm wondering if it's just scum trying to milk all the towncred out of it possible but otherwise I think this is a towny slot. He seemed genuine with his willingness to die earlier and he was part of the VT pool that got more major wagons- basically trying to emphasise the difference between HWS/Sky and A50/profii/xyzzy here. Don't really think he pushes Chickadee as scum either.

Neutral

the worst- this is a self-resolving slot and I don't really care to sort it.
Taly- I'm not going to write a lot about this slot because it's neutral. Basically he's put a lot of effort into the game and I appreciate that but at the same time I think his abnormal level of focus on the VT pool and refusal to talk about the claims on any level is suspicious.

Scumlean

HeWhoSwims- The worst player in the lynchpool. He hasn't really had any use for the entire game (sorry) and kind of had an awful d2. Like, he spent the entire day saying "oh there's no scum in {a51, profii, xyzzy}- which may very well have been true!- but he made

no effort at all

to stop town lynching these players. He sat back and watched the xyzzy lynch happen, and he was never truly opposing any lynches. Why?

Because he never cast a vote for the entirety of d2.

Nosferatu- This is a read I've already talked about. Basically he doesn't feel right. To understand where I'm coming from try to read these ISOs;

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go (Police Academy, town)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go (Clash of the Gods, town)

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go (NY 211, scum)

Does anyone here see how this fits into Nos's scumplay? I guess it's fairly subtle. I think Mulch here describes it better than I can;

They’re way too worried about their appearance; they are more invested and too explanatory. They are tonally in their scum meta

He isn't overly explanatory in this game but he's reasonably so and he just feels too concerned with his own appearance.

But hey let's not just focus on meta because that road leads to town losses.

I think it's pro-scum to pretend you're town and twilight, and most scum i see do it if they're on-site for the hammer. I read xyxxy's twilight posts and they don't really seem like anything to flip a read over.

I would very much like for Nos to give me some links here

because this really looks like scum trying to ensure that today's mislynch goes through.

VOTE: xyzzy

L-1

claim and stuff

bad vote that doesn't really look bad because it's the token lynch for the day that seems inevitable? but it's bad anyway because it ensures the lynch will go through and Nos never really evaluates xyzzy.

i dont understand why scum would spec that multiball exists

it seems anti-wincon to introduce the idea that scum are scumhunting too

It is a by product of having too much knowledge. The most likely reason to way to be parsing Multiball given how N1 went down is to know that your scum team is undersized and be looking for the other scum.

It is a slip but happens often enough to be noted. Kinda like how Brass who as claimed BP makes total sense as a possible Multiball scum suspect but is nowhere to be seen in Ausuka’s last minute “thoughts”

idk about this but ausukas method of discrediting is concerning.

pedit: :T
profii said it was L-1 so i believed him :/

Please tell me more about my method of discrediting Nosferatu.

By the way @town: I do have experience with Nos and have read him correctly in NY 211 and police academy based on how his town vs scum games look. This so far is his scum game.

were you even in police academy

also you said he's just making stuff up which isn't really true

Can anyone read MOI's posts pushing me at EOD and explain how he wasn't making stuff up, with gems like "You said that you should lynch a player who would be clear in the scenario you were talking about, not because it was a typo, but because YOU'RE SCUM obviously"?

MagnaofIllusion
Skygazer
Jingle
Chickadee
HeWhoSwims
Taly
Nosferatu
Profii

If we're in singleball we should be looking at 3 scum in here. Nosferatu lynch option is unlocked upon MOI scumflip and Chickadee lynch option is unlocked upon Nosferatu scumflip. If we don't lynch MOI today we're looking at a {HWS, profii, Sky, Taly, Jingle} lynchpool. Which would you like the most, Rask?

why would you not target me or MoI?

Dislike the push that I should've targeted MOI.

Scum

MagnaOfIllusion- Basically MOI is scum because his views on the game are unrealistic and don't come from town. A good example of this would be his play at the end of d2, when he stops focusing on his A50 push and starts targeting me instead. In 2947 he

literally accuses me of being scum for understanding normal mechanics.

Another argument is that the presence of a Follower and an unknown role that can generate an uncertain clear with a Mafia (limited) Roleblocker means my role is OP somehow. I'm pretty sure almost everyone here knows this isn't the case. His vote on Xyzzy is scum-motivated; apparently scum defending a slot means it's scum now? I mean, I'm pretty sure scum defending a slot doesn't make it scum in any universe; even taking the generous view that it makes sense for MOI to lynch people based on weak associatives with slots that aren't close to confirmed scum, that doesn't make any sense. In 3035 he argues that me saying "ugh" is indicative of 100% confidence in town!xyzzy which is ??? But I think 3039 takes the cake for scum!MOI posts.

Phoneposting is awful ...

Just want to point out in Ausuka’s first paragraph she was “Nos is a good lynch later assuming MoI doesn’t flip scum”.

Let that logic sink in. I’m a Loyal Vendor. Nos via Andy is 100% confirmed when I am flippped Town. The only way you EVER lynch Nos even with terrible posting is if I flipped scum.

Ausuka isn’t approaching the game from a Town perspective but from a “What can I post that looks Town” perspective.

He's trying to argue that I as scum totally disregarded obvious mechanics in order to, uh, well I don't really know what the point that's trying to be made here is, over the really obvious answer of it just being a typo.

And then he says

How is that anything but a typing error LMFAO??? Why do I as scum say "You only lynch X if the person claiming an inno on X flips town." Why would anyone post that to look town? Everything you post is full of holes.

Yup total typo. Scum and Town are sooooo close on keyboard and often autocorrect to each other.



I don’t know why you think what you are doing in twilight looks Town. Only you can explain that in the Dead thread or postgame.

This isn't a town perspective. Town!MOI realizes that this stuff is NAI. Town!MOI doesn't argue that it's impossible to type "doesn't" instead of "does" by mistake.

oh and to top it off there's a nice little totally fake line at the end there too!

I gots a peach.

^Confirming this. Brassherald is very likely town. It's possible that Mafia have a tracker or a watcher but meh I think he's just town.

VOTE: Ausuka

The only way this vote is moving might (and only might) be to Skygazer who is pretty obvious scum.

Anyone who doesn't see that clearing Brass (who 0.00% of the playerbase thought was scum) as opposed to confirming I'm scum as she was whining about yesterday or clearing in the Pool of Death is 100% scum motivated play as opposed to game solving.

If you don't see that I can't help you. In which case go ahead and flip me today. It locks in Ausuka scum with my Town flip and minimizes the WIFOM damage her "clears" will do down the line (which right now is mostly only Rask IMO) and confirm both Nos and Chickadee as lock-Town.

don't forget this lovely post either where he argues that despite the fact that he's decided to lock me as scum based on claim I should waste an investigation on him,

AND

totally ignores the fact that

I am practically confirmed town due to the protective and the lack of a scum nightkill

because he's already backed his viewpoint into a corner.

Oh yeah and also don't forget that he

totally ignores the fact I made a case on Sky and was part of the push against her d2

because it doesn't fit his narrative of an Ausuka/Skygazer scumteam.

okay that should be everyone whee

[Raskolnikov]

Lynch moi tomorrow
Let him have one more result just in case

[Raskolnikov]

You're not helping my case, signature

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: HWS

[Jingle]

Anyway.

HWS behavior is very null if your description is accurate.

I remember thinking MoI was likely to actually be a loyal fruit vendor based on the way claims happened (One of the few parts of the thread I actually read). On the other hand, it's likely that fruit vendor results aren't trustworthy at this point if both of your roles are accurate, so losing him isn't the worst thing in the world.

I kind of want to no lynch and see what happens. If Aus, MoI, GE are all town, scum has the opportunity to let them continue investigating or shoot them. Shooting them confirms at least their D1 targets in my mind. GE has presumably at least one possible guilty result he can find, and thus is probably the best protect out of the three. We are unlikely to narrow down the protection further, meaning that scum has to shoot in the kill pool to go doctor hunting, and I doubt that scum has three methods of fucking with loyal fruit vendors, so at least one of the two fruit targets tonight should be a real result IF both vendors are town.

Thoughts?

[Gamma Emerald]

Actually I'd propose doc don't worry about me because I'm only situationally useful until lategame where I can start clearing people
do you want vig to hold shot as well?

[Ausuka]

the issue I see with that is that the earlier MOI flips the earlier we can confidently use his associations with players like Sky and Nos.

Why should I believe Sky and MOI are buddies? Because that seems to be what you're implying.

pedit: oh ok I can vote HWS.

@Jingle; I disagree tbh. I think mafia are a lot more likely to vaguely make "uhhh all the players who have a real chance of being mislynched today are town" without actually trying to save their townreads by wagoning their scumreads.

Why is no lynch favourable to HWS lynch?

[Ausuka]

I don't think tw would holster. I guess I would support a profii shot although I townlean him personally.

I think if mafia had a counter to my role they kill Gamma over me last night.

[Jingle]

Yeah, vig should hold shot.

Honestly tho, doccing you is better than tw/Aus/MoI because those are all high information flips. I do expect some form of scum tracker to be able to fuck with the results of fruit vendors.

If you're left alone long enough you can get a confirmed guilty on at least one scum. Your innos are pretty worthless atm to be sure, but that doesn't mean much.

If I were doc, I'd probably rng the protect. 60% weight on GE, 20% on Aus and 20% on MoI.

[Ausuka]

how am I a high information flip? and why on earth would you protect MOI???

like if mafia want to shoot MOI I see no reason to not just let them do it considering without the claim we'd be lynching him today.

[Jingle]

Why is no lynch favourable to HWS lynch?

I cannot answer this question. And the plan is very contingent on the worst being willing to holster.

I am not of the opinion that your loud visitor was necessarily the doctor. They could just as easily have been a tracker. Further, if both you and MoI are town and they have one tracker, they should still try to kill you.

Oh... Given that fruits seem to vary by night but remain the same between you and MoI, claims should happen like this:

Fruit/No Fruit in the first 3 days of the phase. Loud/no loud claim after that. Fruit vendors claim which fruit recipient was their target after that. Fruit recipient of loud claims what fruit. Fruit recipient of no loud claims what fruit.

[Ausuka]

VOTE: No Lynch

i'll trust you; however, we are on odds right now. This will take us to evens. So there needs to be a very good reason for you to do this.

They targeted gamma n1. they're almost always going to be a protective. and mafia loud tracker doesn't really make any sense I think? whereas loud doctor seems more elegant.

[Jingle]

how am I a high information flip? and why on earth would you protect MOI???

Um... All I see is two similar investigatives in what appears to be a 1v1 with a doctor out there and two missing nightkills. If we can milk this for additional investigative results and make this game mechanically solveable, we do that.

Further, I haven't read the thread enough to have reads, so I don't really want to evaluate you/MoI. I'll get around to it at some point, but finding ways to break setups is really my forte, so I'm going to apply that to what I have read.

And, you're a high information flip because that means your fruit vends become solid information if town and your CC of MoI becomes solid information if town. If Gamma is shot, on the other hand, we as town get no solid information.

[Gamma Emerald]

Why is no lynch favourable to HWS lynch?

I cannot answer this question. And the plan is very contingent on the worst being willing to holster.

I am not of the opinion that your loud visitor was necessarily the doctor. They could just as easily have been a tracker. Further, if both you and MoI are town and they have one tracker, they should still try to kill you.

Oh... Given that fruits seem to vary by night but remain the same between you and MoI, claims should happen like this:

Fruit/No Fruit in the first 3 days of the phase. Loud/no loud claim after that. Fruit vendors claim which fruit recipient was their target after that. Fruit recipient of loud claims what fruit. Fruit recipient of no loud claims what fruit.

if mafia have a loud tracker what was the one on me? where's the other loud if both loud doc and loud tracker are active?

[Ausuka]

how am I a high information flip? and why on earth would you protect MOI???

Um... All I see is two similar investigatives in what appears to be a 1v1 with a doctor out there and two missing nightkills. If we can milk this for additional investigative results and make this game mechanically solveable, we do that.

Further, I haven't read the thread enough to have reads, so I don't really want to evaluate you/MoI. I'll get around to it at some point, but finding ways to break setups is really my forte, so I'm going to apply that to what I have read.

And, you're a high information flip because that means your fruit vends become solid information if town and your CC of MoI becomes solid information if town. If Gamma is shot, on the other hand, we as town get no solid information.

But I was the scum nightkill last night? So I should be seen as town already.

UNVOTE:

I'm going to take some time to evaluate this plan. I'm not sure if it could ever be worth giving scum a free kill.

[profii]

Is anyone familiar enough with action resolution?

Lynch *someone*
Let MoI fruit
Shoot MoI

?

Probably far too much trust of MoI and TW in that tbh

[Jingle]

Yeah, but loud doc confirms you and gamma as town when they flip, which means even if scum go doc hunting, they're narrowing the pool of potential mislynches and confing both of the most dangerous roles to them.

Loud tracker doesn't conf you, though it does imply town.

Additional, unknown loud role (a possibility, although a slight one that should most definitely not claim) doesn't conf anyone.

With this in mind, you probably rate a higher percentage than MoI (I hadn't picked up on the pseudoconf on you), but again, as long as the protective uses their own best judgement and reads I'm happy to let them continue as they have been.

Mostly, by using my plan, we're making scum shoot the people that we would be lynching anyway.

I would like confirmation from TW and everyone to try to find holes in the plan before we implement it, though, as I am not infallible.

[Jingle]

Is anyone familiar enough with action resolution?

Lynch *someone*
Let MoI fruit
Shoot MoI

?

Probably far too much trust of MoI and TW in that tbh

The problem there is if MoI is town there is no reason to trust the result either way. MoI can't point at the person who should have recieved fruit in the case of a guilty, and we still have the possible tracker to give a possible fake innocent.

[Ausuka]

Scum don't really care about confing me and Gamma as town because they're killing us anyway. Loud tracker just isn't something we're dealing with.

Who are we making scum shoot? Me and Gamma won't be lynched. MOI won't be shot. I fail to see the point?

[Jingle]

We're pushing the scum to shoot for the doc. Basically, this is a slightly nerfed version of Follow the Cop.

[Jingle]

The idea is that scum CANNOT risk their kill being stopped, because the longer they fail to make a kill the more impact your investigations actually have, and therefore will shoot outside of the protection pool. If they shoot inside and miss they're boned. We should therefore focus on obfuscating the doc in the scummy players, thereby eliminating scummy players should they miss. The names remaining should contain the scum.

If both you and MoI are town (which I find likely based solely on the fact that MoI claimed to be loyal first) we should very quickly get to a point where we have enough "At least one of these players is town" pairs to gamesolve.

Literally the only person I could lynch today would be MoI at this point, but as I said I don't think it's unreasonable setup wise to have both of you as town, especially if scum has both a jailkeeper and a tracker variant.

[Ausuka]

I agree that from a purely setup spec position MOI leans town, I just think his play is scum.

VOTE: no lynch

Fine, let's go with this. I still don't think doc should be on MOI but it's their choice I suppose.

[Raskolnikov]

We're not no lynching and jingles actually pushing some really scummy shit right now