Mafiascum.net

In post 3200, jjh927 wrote:I accept it and think you should probably drop it

If Klick turns out to not have a confirmable role when we do massclaim which may well be next day phase, then that's when you should refuse to drop it. Right now though, just don't

In post 3095, Klick wrote:

In post 3082, furtiveglance wrote:

In post 2762, Klick wrote:I would like to claim now that my role is confirmable but thus far I have used it to target Ausuka on N2 and Lukewarm N3 and this is incredibly frustrating to me

Klick you have a vote on you now

Might be good to confirm yourself

I don't know why you're so interested in me fullclaiming

In post 3193, Klick wrote:I've read and agree with 3191 and also think it makes jjh rather likely town

In post 3203, mastina wrote:Btw, what I am planning to do either tonight or tomorrow is, basically, show my math/homework on logical deductions off of what we know so far.

STARTING POINTS:
Ydrasse town;
Dannflor slot town;
Something_Smart town.

With these four starting points, I want to highlight four key areas of the game:
The end of day Ircher wagon;
Every Titus vote on D2 and the circumstances behind those votes and unvotes;
The reactions (not votes) on D3 prior to the final inevitable conclusion of the day;
Interactions this day phase.

I want to better illustrate every possible remaining team given the assumptions above (Ydrasse/Dann/S_S town), demonstrating what they would require in order to be true, and why I think of those combos the way I do:
Basically impossible, plausible but unlikely, possible (yet a bit lazy), and then actually probable combos that fit the evidence throughout all four key areas.

This is because I believe that interactions are, mostly, more important than individual towniness here, and while individual towniness is not to be discarded altogether, in a gamestate where everyone has reasons to be town and everyone has reasons to be scum yet exactly two living players are scum, individual towniness can just be smart/good scumplay, whereas interactions across the key areas of the game highlight the narratives of each team combo and their necessary steps to function. A tool that I feel is far more likely to get scum eliminated.

I did this mentally already and it was how I got the fire/furtive team, as a team that fits the most easily.
But I didn’t map it out for y'all and need to show my work, as well as cover things my mental math may have overlooked.

I will admit that the shortcuts I used mean that I could’ve overlooked a correct combo, but I need the time either tonight or tomorrow to demonstrate what I am really talking about here and why I feel the way I do.

In post 3207, Dannflor wrote:I guess we can give Klick a day

Mala is just so unsatisfying

jjh did you have a reason for leaving furtive alone?

In post 2947, furtiveglance wrote:

In post 2942, Malakittens wrote:

In post 2940, furtiveglance wrote:688 and 1383 have a bit. But it's not as if you're doing something insanely sus that mafia always do. You just haven't hard pushed anyone, written a post longer than a few lines or said anything that I remember. So there's a lack of drive in your play.

eh

I have also have had this recent lack of drive in lost

which i was limmed when I was trying to kill obv-scum

but I was town

so this is NAI

I think we've seen the word 'scumslip' overused recently. BUT...

Malakittens' post sounds like 'I also did this when I was town' to me. Anyone else? How does that affect the vibes?

In post 3211, furtiveglance wrote:

In post 2947, furtiveglance wrote:

In post 2942, Malakittens wrote:

In post 2940, furtiveglance wrote:688 and 1383 have a bit. But it's not as if you're doing something insanely sus that mafia always do. You just haven't hard pushed anyone, written a post longer than a few lines or said anything that I remember. So there's a lack of drive in your play.

eh

I have also have had this recent lack of drive in lost

which i was limmed when I was trying to kill obv-scum

but I was town

so this is NAI

I think we've seen the word 'scumslip' overused recently. BUT...

Malakittens' post sounds like 'I also did this when I was town' to me. Anyone else? How does that affect the vibes?

Hammer encouragement post

In post 1001, Datisi wrote:

vote count 1.final

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm

,

Titus

, furtiveglance,

Ausuka, RCEnigma

, Klick,

BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax

, PenguinPower,

petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens

, fireisredsir

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb,

Ircher

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

In post 3222, mastina wrote:

In post 1001, Datisi wrote:

vote count 1.final

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm

,

Titus

, furtiveglance,

Ausuka, RCEnigma

, Klick,

BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax

, PenguinPower,

petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens

, fireisredsir

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb,

Ircher

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

So would ya look at this.

The only possible both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}
{Uncrowned, fire}

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{furtive, PenguinPower}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

Wouldn't ya know it? None of those both-remaining-on combos seem particularly likely but if they were, furtive is in prime scum position right there with Titus.

So the only realistic possibilities are both-remaining-off (unlikely), or one-on one-off.

In post 3208, mastina wrote:

In post 3203, mastina wrote:Btw, what I am planning to do either tonight or tomorrow is, basically, show my math/homework on logical deductions off of what we know so far.

STARTING POINTS:
Ydrasse town;
Dannflor slot town;
Something_Smart town.

With these four starting points, I want to highlight four key areas of the game:
The end of day Ircher wagon;
Every Titus vote on D2 and the circumstances behind those votes and unvotes;
The reactions (not votes) on D3 prior to the final inevitable conclusion of the day;
Interactions this day phase.

I want to better illustrate every possible remaining team given the assumptions above (Ydrasse/Dann/S_S town), demonstrating what they would require in order to be true, and why I think of those combos the way I do:
Basically impossible, plausible but unlikely, possible (yet a bit lazy), and then actually probable combos that fit the evidence throughout all four key areas.

This is because I believe that interactions are, mostly, more important than individual towniness here, and while individual towniness is not to be discarded altogether, in a gamestate where everyone has reasons to be town and everyone has reasons to be scum yet exactly two living players are scum, individual towniness can just be smart/good scumplay, whereas interactions across the key areas of the game highlight the narratives of each team combo and their necessary steps to function. A tool that I feel is far more likely to get scum eliminated.

I did this mentally already and it was how I got the fire/furtive team, as a team that fits the most easily.
But I didn’t map it out for y'all and need to show my work, as well as cover things my mental math may have overlooked.

I will admit that the shortcuts I used mean that I could’ve overlooked a correct combo, but I need the time either tonight or tomorrow to demonstrate what I am really talking about here and why I feel the way I do.

So I can’t quote the posts and actually do the breakdown now, but I can save at least some time by laying out some basic groundwork now:

WHAT WE KNOW:

-

IRCHER DELIBERATELY DIED D1

. Instead of trying to recover from the slip, he entered antispew mode, deliberately not trying to save himself. He accepted death and made no efforts to avert it.
-

TITUS HARD-BUSSED IRCHER

. Titus, notoriously an anti-bus player, bussed. Eventually, she even doubled down on the bus, as she was the first player to point out that Ircher was online yet not posting. While she might've made some attempts to weaken the wagon prior to then, it was at that moment you could tell that she was committed to the bus, and hard-pushed for Ircher's death.

CONCLUSION:

The scum knew that Ircher was going to be the D1 elimination. They explicitly were okay with this and planned around it. Both flipped scum past a certain point made no effort to save Ircher, so at least half of the scumteam not only was okay with his death, but actively pushed towards it.

Their motives for doing so are speculation. I tried to word the above in a neutral way not favoring any particular speculate as to the why, although maybe there's an even better wording for the above. So don't take the above to be favoring one specific Motive.
Still, I feel it's not controversial to say that it's a fact that the scum did, indeed, do the above. The motivation for WHY they did it is speculatory, but them doing it is fact. The scum let Ircher die, and actively pushed for it.

SPECULATION:

Because both flipped scum were okay with an Ircher elimination, it is

more likely

that the surviving scum also were. It is not confirmed, scum comms can be hectic, but it's generally a reasonable assumption. I won't be treating it as fact, and will still cover scenarios requiring those situations.

However, this leads to a generalized posit:

It is

less likely

both remaining scum are off the Ircher wagon

Not impossible, but I will cover the different scenarios when doing a detailed breakdown on how it's possible, and how likely it is. (Lack of scum coordination, scum genuinely believing that being off was better, etc.)

I can't list all the possible both-off, both-on, 50/50 teams right now, but I'll do so just before the detailed breakdown begins.

Next part:

The Titus voters on D2:

I should specify: I

mostly

expect the early Titus votes to be nai; any wagon could’ve gone through that early, so Titus was in no real danger;
I

mostly

expect the late Titus votes to be nai, because Roden's elimination past a certain point became basically inevitable, meaning that scum could place votes there which were performative.

However, the middle section of the day is important: when both wagons could’ve gone through, hopping onto Titus is more likely town; hopping off of Titus is slightly more likely scum.

Inversely, hopping onto Roden is slightly more likely to be scum at that point. (Hopping off isn’t town tho imo.)

D3 is important to note who demonstrated followthrough on Titus before the results had fully played out. The results also have town spewing lack of info and scum revealing TMI imo.

And D4 is important, because while weak pushes aren't antipartner, strong extended serious actual pushes backed by wagons are indicators that greatly reduce the odds of the individuals being partnered.

Again, not impossible.

But I will be showing across all four fields the requirements. What needed to go on for this scumteam to be possible. And the improbabilities stack and multiply. One improbability doesn’t disqualify a scumteam from contention. 3+ almost assuredly makes it borderline impossible.

The more requirements for a scumteam to exist, the more convoluted the process becomes, the more justification required and the more stretches of logic required across those key areas, the less likely the scumteam is.

Yes, this will lead to some "lazy" teams being relatively higher up, but I'll get to those when I finish.

I'm probably not explaining this properly, will try to lay it out better later.

In post 3223, mastina wrote:

In post 3222, mastina wrote:

In post 1001, Datisi wrote:

vote count 1.final

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm

,

Titus

, furtiveglance,

Ausuka, RCEnigma

, Klick,

BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax

, PenguinPower,

petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens

, fireisredsir

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb,

Ircher

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

So would ya look at this.

The only possible both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}
{Uncrowned, fire}

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{furtive, PenguinPower}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

Wouldn't ya know it? None of those both-remaining-on combos seem particularly likely but if they were, furtive is in prime scum position right there with Titus.

So the only realistic possibilities are both-remaining-off (unlikely), or one-on one-off.

I realize one-on one-off has a lot more combos, which is why I wanted the bloody time to lay this all out.

{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, fire}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

A lot more combos, which I'd have been happy to break down if you hadn't fucking hammered when I asked for a day. (Particular shame on you, jjh, for not unvoting when you knew I wanted this.)