Townstumps Mafia (Endgame)

[cyrus62]

Cyrus, how can town lose here?

by folling your lead.

[Titus]

We miseliminate tonight.
7 v 2 - Start of night
Not Mafia visits scum.
Scum kill DGB (sake of argument)
5v 2 - Start of day
We eliminate scum
5 v 1 - Start of night
Scum kill gamma (sake of argument)
4 v 1 - Start of day
mastina, with three in the pool. Scum survive one more miselimination.

That's how scum can win.

[Gamma Emerald]

If we suppose that Gamma, mastina, not mafia, and DGB are all clear, which they are under my theory (despite my mastina by read play is still hot garbage until I verify jjh).

That leaves us with me, cyrus, house, jjh, the hydra, and moongrass.

We miseliminate.
notmafia clears another name in the pool.
Scum kill DGB.

We're at 7 alive with 2 scum.
We have 4 names in the possible pool.
We miseliminate.
Scum kill Gamma (again sake of argument, any conftown besides not mafia works).
Not mafia clears another name in the pool.

We're at 5 alive with two scum.
2 names left in the pool.

Unless my math is off, I don't see how scum can win unless they have a secondary role that can bypass not mafia and I don't see that happening.

I think this game was just designed with crappy balance.

This isn’t entirely what I had in mind

[cyrus62]

wow and you gus think this comes from town?

[Gamma Emerald]

Yes, actually, I do!

[Titus]

@Gamma, do you want to hear my theory?

Hell yeah!
I’ve played all of AA 5 and 6 (minus 6’s special episode which I’m on the first investigation of) so I’m a sucker for a good Thought Route

The evidence we have

1) Town Stump is convinced it's an autowin
2) There was no kill last night.
3) Not Mafia can clear people.

There are only a handful of roles that warrant the suggestion that not mafia can clear people. Cop, gunsmith and weak roles. Not Mafia logically is one of these.
A cop and a gunsmith could be blocked. So can most weak roles.
That is except for a hider role.
A hider role explains the lack of a nightkill without giving town additional power.
Scum can never shoot not mafia, but not mafia dies if he targets scum.
That is unless he targets a scum who commuted (the scum isn't there to blow him up). The enabler dying loses them that protection but gives more places for not mafia to die upon.
Not mafia is not a crumber and rarely plays a straight game (which is why I think he hammered FMFT so quickly is to hide that). Yet, he consistently straight up says who he targeted. This is in case he dies.

It's near autowin if Not Mafia targets town. If he targets scum tonight we still lose. Not Mafia should be aiming for town tonight in the pool.

An additional blocking or healing role would make this game even more townsided than it already is, so it likely doesn't exist giving us precisely two power roles.

[cyrus62]

can you lot just elim me i anit playing this gane with this lead. VOTE: titus

[Titus]

If he targets scum tonight we could still lose.

EBWOP

[Gamma Emerald]

@Gamma, do you want to hear my theory?

Hell yeah!
I’ve played all of AA 5 and 6 (minus 6’s special episode which I’m on the first investigation of) so I’m a sucker for a good Thought Route

The evidence we have

1) Town Stump is convinced it's an autowin
2) There was no kill last night.
3) Not Mafia can clear people.

There are only a handful of roles that warrant the suggestion that not mafia can clear people. Cop, gunsmith and weak roles. Not Mafia logically is one of these.
A cop and a gunsmith could be blocked. So can most weak roles.
That is except for a hider role.
A hider role explains the lack of a nightkill without giving town additional power.
Scum can never shoot not mafia, but not mafia dies if he targets scum.
That is unless he targets a scum who commuted (the scum isn't there to blow him up). The enabler dying loses them that protection but gives more places for not mafia to die upon.
Not mafia is not a crumber and rarely plays a straight game (which is why I think he hammered FMFT so quickly is to hide that). Yet, he consistently straight up says who he targeted. This is in case he dies.

It's near autowin if Not Mafia targets town. If he targets scum tonight we still lose. Not Mafia should be aiming for town tonight in the pool.

An additional blocking or healing role would make this game even more townsided than it already is, so it likely doesn't exist giving us precisely two power roles.

Query: do you think House has figured this out? I kinda feel like he pretty much has, question is how his handling of it indicates his alignment

[Titus]

Query: do you think House has figured this out? I kinda feel like he pretty much has, question is how his handling of it indicates his alignment

I just came to this realization myself. Do you have any problems with the theory counselor?

[jjh927]

I can think of at least 3 other things not mafia could be

[Gamma Emerald]

Not at present.

[Titus]

I can think of at least 3 other things not mafia could be

Then I'd like you to challenge me on that. I'd hate to plan a breaking strategy only to have it fall apart.

[Moongrass]

I was thinking hider but then we would have still had an NK.

[jjh927]

Well, for a start, the normal hider doesn't protect itself from anything other than killing actions, and can be roleblocked

[Titus]

Because right now, I think if we eliminate correctly we win.
If we miseliminate and not mafia targets town then we're closer to an auto win.
We go to 8 alive, 4 possible scum.
Miseliminate, not mafia targets scum. Night kill.
5 alive, 3 possible scum, one confirmed.
Eliminate confscum
3 alive, 1 scum alive. 1 conftown.

So scum in addition to fighting off the elimination, must convince not mafia to target a scumfuck tonight if my theory holds.

[jjh927]

If I was a stump I would have picked weak babysitter

[Titus]

Well, for a start, the normal hider doesn't protect itself from anything other than killing actions, and can be roleblocked

A hider isn't present at his place. He can only be targeted at his new place. He could only be killed if he was killed along side the very townie he was hiding behind.

[Moongrass]

It's a big assumption that scum don't have something to counteract the clears though?

[jjh927]

Well, for a start, the normal hider doesn't protect itself from anything other than killing actions, and can be roleblocked

A hider isn't present at his place. He can only be targeted at his new place. He could only be killed if he was killed along side the very townie he was hiding behind.

Yes but he could be roleblocked

[cyrus62]

unlee titus is scum

[Titus]

JJH is right it looks like a hider can be roleblocked upon reading the wiki.

[Moongrass]

Oh. I didn't know that if a Hider was shot directly that they wouldn't die.

[Gamma Emerald]

It's a big assumption that scum don't have something to counteract the clears though?

Pretty sure the assumption is their main mode of that was NK15 + the other scum being commuters

[Titus]

It's a big assumption that scum don't have something to counteract the clears though?

That's what the commuter likely was. They could have had a roleblocker though but the question is why didn't they use it and kill not mafia?