Datisi's Café [game over!]

[mastina]

Btw, what I am planning to do either tonight or tomorrow is, basically, show my math/homework on logical deductions off of what we know so far.

STARTING POINTS:
Ydrasse town;
Dannflor slot town;
Something_Smart town.

With these four starting points, I want to highlight four key areas of the game:
The end of day Ircher wagon;
Every Titus vote on D2 and the circumstances behind those votes and unvotes;
The reactions (not votes) on D3 prior to the final inevitable conclusion of the day;
Interactions this day phase.

I want to better illustrate every possible remaining team given the assumptions above (Ydrasse/Dann/S_S town), demonstrating what they would require in order to be true, and why I think of those combos the way I do:
Basically impossible, plausible but unlikely, possible (yet a bit lazy), and then actually probable combos that fit the evidence throughout all four key areas.

This is because I believe that interactions are, mostly, more important than individual towniness here, and while individual towniness is not to be discarded altogether, in a gamestate where everyone has reasons to be town and everyone has reasons to be scum yet exactly two living players are scum, individual towniness can just be smart/good scumplay, whereas interactions across the key areas of the game highlight the narratives of each team combo and their necessary steps to function. A tool that I feel is far more likely to get scum eliminated.

I did this mentally already and it was how I got the fire/furtive team, as a team that fits the most easily.
But I didn’t map it out for y'all and need to show my work, as well as cover things my mental math may have overlooked.

I will admit that the shortcuts I used mean that I could’ve overlooked a correct combo, but I need the time either tonight or tomorrow to demonstrate what I am really talking about here and why I feel the way I do.

So I can’t quote the posts and actually do the breakdown now, but I can save at least some time by laying out some basic groundwork now:

WHAT WE KNOW:

-

IRCHER DELIBERATELY DIED D1

. Instead of trying to recover from the slip, he entered antispew mode, deliberately not trying to save himself. He accepted death and made no efforts to avert it.
-

TITUS HARD-BUSSED IRCHER

. Titus, notoriously an anti-bus player, bussed. Eventually, she even doubled down on the bus, as she was the first player to point out that Ircher was online yet not posting. While she might've made some attempts to weaken the wagon prior to then, it was at that moment you could tell that she was committed to the bus, and hard-pushed for Ircher's death.

CONCLUSION:

The scum knew that Ircher was going to be the D1 elimination. They explicitly were okay with this and planned around it. Both flipped scum past a certain point made no effort to save Ircher, so at least half of the scumteam not only was okay with his death, but actively pushed towards it.

Their motives for doing so are speculation. I tried to word the above in a neutral way not favoring any particular speculate as to the why, although maybe there's an even better wording for the above. So don't take the above to be favoring one specific Motive.
Still, I feel it's not controversial to say that it's a fact that the scum did, indeed, do the above. The motivation for WHY they did it is speculatory, but them doing it is fact. The scum let Ircher die, and actively pushed for it.

SPECULATION:

Because both flipped scum were okay with an Ircher elimination, it is

more likely

that the surviving scum also were. It is not confirmed, scum comms can be hectic, but it's generally a reasonable assumption. I won't be treating it as fact, and will still cover scenarios requiring those situations.

However, this leads to a generalized posit:

It is

less likely

both remaining scum are off the Ircher wagon

Not impossible, but I will cover the different scenarios when doing a detailed breakdown on how it's possible, and how likely it is. (Lack of scum coordination, scum genuinely believing that being off was better, etc.)

I can't list all the possible both-off, both-on, 50/50 teams right now, but I'll do so just before the detailed breakdown begins.

Next part:

The Titus voters on D2:

I should specify: I

mostly

expect the early Titus votes to be nai; any wagon could’ve gone through that early, so Titus was in no real danger;
I

mostly

expect the late Titus votes to be nai, because Roden's elimination past a certain point became basically inevitable, meaning that scum could place votes there which were performative.

However, the middle section of the day is important: when both wagons could’ve gone through, hopping onto Titus is more likely town; hopping off of Titus is slightly more likely scum.

Inversely, hopping onto Roden is slightly more likely to be scum at that point. (Hopping off isn’t town tho imo.)

D3 is important to note who demonstrated followthrough on Titus before the results had fully played out. The results also have town spewing lack of info and scum revealing TMI imo.

And D4 is important, because while weak pushes aren't antipartner, strong extended serious actual pushes backed by wagons are indicators that greatly reduce the odds of the individuals being partnered.

Again, not impossible.

But I will be showing across all four fields the requirements. What needed to go on for this scumteam to be possible. And the improbabilities stack and multiply. One improbability doesn’t disqualify a scumteam from contention. 3+ almost assuredly makes it borderline impossible.

The more requirements for a scumteam to exist, the more convoluted the process becomes, the more justification required and the more stretches of logic required across those key areas, the less likely the scumteam is.

Yes, this will lead to some "lazy" teams being relatively higher up, but I'll get to those when I finish.

I'm probably not explaining this properly, will try to lay it out better later.

vote count 1.final

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm

,

Titus

, furtiveglance,

Ausuka, RCEnigma

, Klick,

BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax

, PenguinPower,

petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens

, fireisredsir

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb,

Ircher

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

So would ya look at this.

The only possible both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}
{Uncrowned, fire}

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{furtive, PenguinPower}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

Wouldn't ya know it? None of those both-remaining-on combos seem particularly likely but if they were, furtive is in prime scum position right there with Titus.

So the only realistic possibilities are both-remaining-off (unlikely), or one-on one-off.

I realize one-on one-off has a lot more combos, which is why I wanted the bloody time to lay this all out.

{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, fire}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

A lot more combos, which I'd have been happy to break down if you hadn't fucking hammered when I asked for a day. (Particular shame on you, jjh, for not unvoting when you knew I wanted this.)

Putting these together, Datisi could lock any minute so gotta go fast.

Starting with a pagetop.

[mastina]

vote count 2.02

firing

Titus [3]:

Roden, fireisredsir, Lukewarm

vote count 2.04

firing

Titus [2]:

Roden, Lukewarm

Ausuka [2]:

fireisredsir, Vivax

Note the fire hop-off there btw.

[mastina]

Spoiler: keeping this in the record

Btw, what I am planning to do either tonight or tomorrow is, basically, show my math/homework on logical deductions off of what we know so far.

STARTING POINTS:
Ydrasse town;
Dannflor slot town;
Something_Smart town.

With these four starting points, I want to highlight four key areas of the game:
The end of day Ircher wagon;
Every Titus vote on D2 and the circumstances behind those votes and unvotes;
The reactions (not votes) on D3 prior to the final inevitable conclusion of the day;
Interactions this day phase.

I want to better illustrate every possible remaining team given the assumptions above (Ydrasse/Dann/S_S town), demonstrating what they would require in order to be true, and why I think of those combos the way I do:
Basically impossible, plausible but unlikely, possible (yet a bit lazy), and then actually probable combos that fit the evidence throughout all four key areas.

This is because I believe that interactions are, mostly, more important than individual towniness here, and while individual towniness is not to be discarded altogether, in a gamestate where everyone has reasons to be town and everyone has reasons to be scum yet exactly two living players are scum, individual towniness can just be smart/good scumplay, whereas interactions across the key areas of the game highlight the narratives of each team combo and their necessary steps to function. A tool that I feel is far more likely to get scum eliminated.

I did this mentally already and it was how I got the fire/furtive team, as a team that fits the most easily.
But I didn’t map it out for y'all and need to show my work, as well as cover things my mental math may have overlooked.

I will admit that the shortcuts I used mean that I could’ve overlooked a correct combo, but I need the time either tonight or tomorrow to demonstrate what I am really talking about here and why I feel the way I do.

So I can’t quote the posts and actually do the breakdown now, but I can save at least some time by laying out some basic groundwork now:

WHAT WE KNOW:

-

IRCHER DELIBERATELY DIED D1

. Instead of trying to recover from the slip, he entered antispew mode, deliberately not trying to save himself. He accepted death and made no efforts to avert it.
-

TITUS HARD-BUSSED IRCHER

. Titus, notoriously an anti-bus player, bussed. Eventually, she even doubled down on the bus, as she was the first player to point out that Ircher was online yet not posting. While she might've made some attempts to weaken the wagon prior to then, it was at that moment you could tell that she was committed to the bus, and hard-pushed for Ircher's death.

CONCLUSION:

The scum knew that Ircher was going to be the D1 elimination. They explicitly were okay with this and planned around it. Both flipped scum past a certain point made no effort to save Ircher, so at least half of the scumteam not only was okay with his death, but actively pushed towards it.

Their motives for doing so are speculation. I tried to word the above in a neutral way not favoring any particular speculate as to the why, although maybe there's an even better wording for the above. So don't take the above to be favoring one specific Motive.
Still, I feel it's not controversial to say that it's a fact that the scum did, indeed, do the above. The motivation for WHY they did it is speculatory, but them doing it is fact. The scum let Ircher die, and actively pushed for it.

SPECULATION:

Because both flipped scum were okay with an Ircher elimination, it is

more likely

that the surviving scum also were. It is not confirmed, scum comms can be hectic, but it's generally a reasonable assumption. I won't be treating it as fact, and will still cover scenarios requiring those situations.

However, this leads to a generalized posit:

It is

less likely

both remaining scum are off the Ircher wagon

Not impossible, but I will cover the different scenarios when doing a detailed breakdown on how it's possible, and how likely it is. (Lack of scum coordination, scum genuinely believing that being off was better, etc.)

I can't list all the possible both-off, both-on, 50/50 teams right now, but I'll do so just before the detailed breakdown begins.

Next part:

The Titus voters on D2:

I should specify: I

mostly

expect the early Titus votes to be nai; any wagon could’ve gone through that early, so Titus was in no real danger;
I

mostly

expect the late Titus votes to be nai, because Roden's elimination past a certain point became basically inevitable, meaning that scum could place votes there which were performative.

However, the middle section of the day is important: when both wagons could’ve gone through, hopping onto Titus is more likely town; hopping off of Titus is slightly more likely scum.

Inversely, hopping onto Roden is slightly more likely to be scum at that point. (Hopping off isn’t town tho imo.)

D3 is important to note who demonstrated followthrough on Titus before the results had fully played out. The results also have town spewing lack of info and scum revealing TMI imo.

And D4 is important, because while weak pushes aren't antipartner, strong extended serious actual pushes backed by wagons are indicators that greatly reduce the odds of the individuals being partnered.

Again, not impossible.

But I will be showing across all four fields the requirements. What needed to go on for this scumteam to be possible. And the improbabilities stack and multiply. One improbability doesn’t disqualify a scumteam from contention. 3+ almost assuredly makes it borderline impossible.

The more requirements for a scumteam to exist, the more convoluted the process becomes, the more justification required and the more stretches of logic required across those key areas, the less likely the scumteam is.

Yes, this will lead to some "lazy" teams being relatively higher up, but I'll get to those when I finish.

I'm probably not explaining this properly, will try to lay it out better later.

vote count 1.final

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm

,

Titus

, furtiveglance,

Ausuka, RCEnigma

, Klick,

BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax

, PenguinPower,

petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens

, fireisredsir

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb,

Ircher

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

So would ya look at this.

The only possible both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}
{Uncrowned, fire}

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{furtive, PenguinPower}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

Wouldn't ya know it? None of those both-remaining-on combos seem particularly likely but if they were, furtive is in prime scum position right there with Titus.

So the only realistic possibilities are both-remaining-off (unlikely), or one-on one-off.

I realize one-on one-off has a lot more combos, which is why I wanted the bloody time to lay this all out.

{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, fire}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

A lot more combos, which I'd have been happy to break down if you hadn't fucking hammered when I asked for a day. (Particular shame on you, jjh, for not unvoting when you knew I wanted this.)

Putting these together, Datisi could lock any minute so gotta go fast.

Starting with a pagetop.

VOTE: fire

why is it not believable that i would target the same player twice in a row?

The cost is 150%. (Do the math--0% productivity on D1 + 50% productivity on D2 = 150% banked for N2.)

whats the issue penguin

why do you think someone with a 150% requirement is going to act again/why do you think scum lying about it would take an action that's not killing you?

choo choo
VOTE: furtive

I do happen to agree with mastina's takes, however.

(Which is fire + furtive)

I actually don’t really want s_s anymore today…prefer furtive or fire.

Still completely fine with yeeting furtive.

btw was there a reason we aren't killing fire today i forgot

No idea. Furtive/fire are my preference but I’m sheeping you rn.

We can safely eliminate PenguinPower from being paired with either fire or furtive because those have been his pushes today.

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

(Both off unchanged.)

[mastina]

Spoiler: keeping this in the record

Btw, what I am planning to do either tonight or tomorrow is, basically, show my math/homework on logical deductions off of what we know so far.

STARTING POINTS:
Ydrasse town;
Dannflor slot town;
Something_Smart town.

With these four starting points, I want to highlight four key areas of the game:
The end of day Ircher wagon;
Every Titus vote on D2 and the circumstances behind those votes and unvotes;
The reactions (not votes) on D3 prior to the final inevitable conclusion of the day;
Interactions this day phase.

I want to better illustrate every possible remaining team given the assumptions above (Ydrasse/Dann/S_S town), demonstrating what they would require in order to be true, and why I think of those combos the way I do:
Basically impossible, plausible but unlikely, possible (yet a bit lazy), and then actually probable combos that fit the evidence throughout all four key areas.

This is because I believe that interactions are, mostly, more important than individual towniness here, and while individual towniness is not to be discarded altogether, in a gamestate where everyone has reasons to be town and everyone has reasons to be scum yet exactly two living players are scum, individual towniness can just be smart/good scumplay, whereas interactions across the key areas of the game highlight the narratives of each team combo and their necessary steps to function. A tool that I feel is far more likely to get scum eliminated.

I did this mentally already and it was how I got the fire/furtive team, as a team that fits the most easily.
But I didn’t map it out for y'all and need to show my work, as well as cover things my mental math may have overlooked.

I will admit that the shortcuts I used mean that I could’ve overlooked a correct combo, but I need the time either tonight or tomorrow to demonstrate what I am really talking about here and why I feel the way I do.

So I can’t quote the posts and actually do the breakdown now, but I can save at least some time by laying out some basic groundwork now:

WHAT WE KNOW:

-

IRCHER DELIBERATELY DIED D1

. Instead of trying to recover from the slip, he entered antispew mode, deliberately not trying to save himself. He accepted death and made no efforts to avert it.
-

TITUS HARD-BUSSED IRCHER

. Titus, notoriously an anti-bus player, bussed. Eventually, she even doubled down on the bus, as she was the first player to point out that Ircher was online yet not posting. While she might've made some attempts to weaken the wagon prior to then, it was at that moment you could tell that she was committed to the bus, and hard-pushed for Ircher's death.

CONCLUSION:

The scum knew that Ircher was going to be the D1 elimination. They explicitly were okay with this and planned around it. Both flipped scum past a certain point made no effort to save Ircher, so at least half of the scumteam not only was okay with his death, but actively pushed towards it.

Their motives for doing so are speculation. I tried to word the above in a neutral way not favoring any particular speculate as to the why, although maybe there's an even better wording for the above. So don't take the above to be favoring one specific Motive.
Still, I feel it's not controversial to say that it's a fact that the scum did, indeed, do the above. The motivation for WHY they did it is speculatory, but them doing it is fact. The scum let Ircher die, and actively pushed for it.

SPECULATION:

Because both flipped scum were okay with an Ircher elimination, it is

more likely

that the surviving scum also were. It is not confirmed, scum comms can be hectic, but it's generally a reasonable assumption. I won't be treating it as fact, and will still cover scenarios requiring those situations.

However, this leads to a generalized posit:

It is

less likely

both remaining scum are off the Ircher wagon

Not impossible, but I will cover the different scenarios when doing a detailed breakdown on how it's possible, and how likely it is. (Lack of scum coordination, scum genuinely believing that being off was better, etc.)

I can't list all the possible both-off, both-on, 50/50 teams right now, but I'll do so just before the detailed breakdown begins.

Next part:

The Titus voters on D2:

I should specify: I

mostly

expect the early Titus votes to be nai; any wagon could’ve gone through that early, so Titus was in no real danger;
I

mostly

expect the late Titus votes to be nai, because Roden's elimination past a certain point became basically inevitable, meaning that scum could place votes there which were performative.

However, the middle section of the day is important: when both wagons could’ve gone through, hopping onto Titus is more likely town; hopping off of Titus is slightly more likely scum.

Inversely, hopping onto Roden is slightly more likely to be scum at that point. (Hopping off isn’t town tho imo.)

D3 is important to note who demonstrated followthrough on Titus before the results had fully played out. The results also have town spewing lack of info and scum revealing TMI imo.

And D4 is important, because while weak pushes aren't antipartner, strong extended serious actual pushes backed by wagons are indicators that greatly reduce the odds of the individuals being partnered.

Again, not impossible.

But I will be showing across all four fields the requirements. What needed to go on for this scumteam to be possible. And the improbabilities stack and multiply. One improbability doesn’t disqualify a scumteam from contention. 3+ almost assuredly makes it borderline impossible.

The more requirements for a scumteam to exist, the more convoluted the process becomes, the more justification required and the more stretches of logic required across those key areas, the less likely the scumteam is.

Yes, this will lead to some "lazy" teams being relatively higher up, but I'll get to those when I finish.

I'm probably not explaining this properly, will try to lay it out better later.

vote count 1.final

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm

,

Titus

, furtiveglance,

Ausuka, RCEnigma

, Klick,

BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax

, PenguinPower,

petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens

, fireisredsir

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb,

Ircher

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

So would ya look at this.

The only possible both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}
{Uncrowned, jjh}

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{furtive, PenguinPower}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

Wouldn't ya know it? None of those both-remaining-on combos seem particularly likely but if they were, furtive is in prime scum position right there with Titus.

So the only realistic possibilities are both-remaining-off (unlikely), or one-on one-off.

I realize one-on one-off has a lot more combos, which is why I wanted the bloody time to lay this all out.

{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, fire}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

A lot more combos, which I'd have been happy to break down if you hadn't fucking hammered when I asked for a day. (Particular shame on you, jjh, for not unvoting when you knew I wanted this.)

Putting these together, Datisi could lock any minute so gotta go fast.

Starting with a pagetop.

VOTE: fire

why is it not believable that i would target the same player twice in a row?

The cost is 150%. (Do the math--0% productivity on D1 + 50% productivity on D2 = 150% banked for N2.)

whats the issue penguin

why do you think someone with a 150% requirement is going to act again/why do you think scum lying about it would take an action that's not killing you?

choo choo
VOTE: furtive

I do happen to agree with mastina's takes, however.

(Which is fire + furtive)

I actually don’t really want s_s anymore today…prefer furtive or fire.

Still completely fine with yeeting furtive.

btw was there a reason we aren't killing fire today i forgot

No idea. Furtive/fire are my preference but I’m sheeping you rn.

We can safely eliminate PenguinPower from being paired with either fire or furtive because those have been his pushes today.

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

(Both off unchanged.)

Scum:
furtiveglance

Okay, question for furtiveglance and specifically NOT Nero then
Who are Nero's scumreads

More. (That whole area is RE: furtive pretty much.)

My gut reaction is that you have placed much higher value on broadcasting the fact that you have reads and making sure everyone else knows you have reads than I would expect of town

You hope others will townread you because of your reads, draw attention to them as a defence, and generally seem more preoccupied with ticking that "thing that town players do" box rather than using it as a tool to spur conversation and more accurately place people
At the base level, you appear to prioritise being townread over gaining information with which to eliminate scum.

Yeah, the gut read was very much based on the earlygame. We're moving into logic territory now as the gears are turning and I'm now also concerned by your lack of interaction with your scumreads

For the record, I have read your list of reads, both while just keeping up and also while rereading the whole game a couple of hours back.
But yeah, generally speaking, your scumreads look entirely observational in nature and you don't seem to have made an effort to verify that. Ircher being absent makes that understandable to an extent but I'd feel better if you'd had a meaningful interaction with Roden somewhere

Pretty sure these were with furtive, too.

This is a rush job, not reading entire iso to check later stages so could be incorrect, but:

Generally speaking, jjh's interactions significantly reduce the chance of him being scum with furtive.

That being said, I have been thinking about this game and I'd like to help mastina revive the wagon on
VOTE: furtiveglance

Means 2 scum in Furtive, Mala, Klick, Uncrowned, and I'm very much swayed by mastina's point on furtive's 2820. That might depend on whether or not Mastina actually HAS left something out of her role. Scum 100% rolecopped Mastina in n1, because Titus' fakeclaim came before Mastina's and copied the 150% cost to make it more credible

The other names are Klick/Uncrowned, but there's not enough for jjh to be unpaired with them, sadly. jjh has soft-defended Klick but has no such defense of Uncrowned tho. And jjh can be scum with those he lists as town.

Still, that leaves:
The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}

{Uncrowned, jjh}

(reduced probability by inference of jjh soft-protecting Klick, but not nearly as much as anti-furtive associates)
(Also fixed the accidental double-up of Uncrowned+fire the latter of which was jjh.)

[mastina]

Spoiler: keeping this in the record

Btw, what I am planning to do either tonight or tomorrow is, basically, show my math/homework on logical deductions off of what we know so far.

STARTING POINTS:
Ydrasse town;
Dannflor slot town;
Something_Smart town.

With these four starting points, I want to highlight four key areas of the game:
The end of day Ircher wagon;
Every Titus vote on D2 and the circumstances behind those votes and unvotes;
The reactions (not votes) on D3 prior to the final inevitable conclusion of the day;
Interactions this day phase.

I want to better illustrate every possible remaining team given the assumptions above (Ydrasse/Dann/S_S town), demonstrating what they would require in order to be true, and why I think of those combos the way I do:
Basically impossible, plausible but unlikely, possible (yet a bit lazy), and then actually probable combos that fit the evidence throughout all four key areas.

This is because I believe that interactions are, mostly, more important than individual towniness here, and while individual towniness is not to be discarded altogether, in a gamestate where everyone has reasons to be town and everyone has reasons to be scum yet exactly two living players are scum, individual towniness can just be smart/good scumplay, whereas interactions across the key areas of the game highlight the narratives of each team combo and their necessary steps to function. A tool that I feel is far more likely to get scum eliminated.

I did this mentally already and it was how I got the fire/furtive team, as a team that fits the most easily.
But I didn’t map it out for y'all and need to show my work, as well as cover things my mental math may have overlooked.

I will admit that the shortcuts I used mean that I could’ve overlooked a correct combo, but I need the time either tonight or tomorrow to demonstrate what I am really talking about here and why I feel the way I do.

So I can’t quote the posts and actually do the breakdown now, but I can save at least some time by laying out some basic groundwork now:

WHAT WE KNOW:

-

IRCHER DELIBERATELY DIED D1

. Instead of trying to recover from the slip, he entered antispew mode, deliberately not trying to save himself. He accepted death and made no efforts to avert it.
-

TITUS HARD-BUSSED IRCHER

. Titus, notoriously an anti-bus player, bussed. Eventually, she even doubled down on the bus, as she was the first player to point out that Ircher was online yet not posting. While she might've made some attempts to weaken the wagon prior to then, it was at that moment you could tell that she was committed to the bus, and hard-pushed for Ircher's death.

CONCLUSION:

The scum knew that Ircher was going to be the D1 elimination. They explicitly were okay with this and planned around it. Both flipped scum past a certain point made no effort to save Ircher, so at least half of the scumteam not only was okay with his death, but actively pushed towards it.

Their motives for doing so are speculation. I tried to word the above in a neutral way not favoring any particular speculate as to the why, although maybe there's an even better wording for the above. So don't take the above to be favoring one specific Motive.
Still, I feel it's not controversial to say that it's a fact that the scum did, indeed, do the above. The motivation for WHY they did it is speculatory, but them doing it is fact. The scum let Ircher die, and actively pushed for it.

SPECULATION:

Because both flipped scum were okay with an Ircher elimination, it is

more likely

that the surviving scum also were. It is not confirmed, scum comms can be hectic, but it's generally a reasonable assumption. I won't be treating it as fact, and will still cover scenarios requiring those situations.

However, this leads to a generalized posit:

It is

less likely

both remaining scum are off the Ircher wagon

Not impossible, but I will cover the different scenarios when doing a detailed breakdown on how it's possible, and how likely it is. (Lack of scum coordination, scum genuinely believing that being off was better, etc.)

I can't list all the possible both-off, both-on, 50/50 teams right now, but I'll do so just before the detailed breakdown begins.

Next part:

The Titus voters on D2:

I should specify: I

mostly

expect the early Titus votes to be nai; any wagon could’ve gone through that early, so Titus was in no real danger;
I

mostly

expect the late Titus votes to be nai, because Roden's elimination past a certain point became basically inevitable, meaning that scum could place votes there which were performative.

However, the middle section of the day is important: when both wagons could’ve gone through, hopping onto Titus is more likely town; hopping off of Titus is slightly more likely scum.

Inversely, hopping onto Roden is slightly more likely to be scum at that point. (Hopping off isn’t town tho imo.)

D3 is important to note who demonstrated followthrough on Titus before the results had fully played out. The results also have town spewing lack of info and scum revealing TMI imo.

And D4 is important, because while weak pushes aren't antipartner, strong extended serious actual pushes backed by wagons are indicators that greatly reduce the odds of the individuals being partnered.

Again, not impossible.

But I will be showing across all four fields the requirements. What needed to go on for this scumteam to be possible. And the improbabilities stack and multiply. One improbability doesn’t disqualify a scumteam from contention. 3+ almost assuredly makes it borderline impossible.

The more requirements for a scumteam to exist, the more convoluted the process becomes, the more justification required and the more stretches of logic required across those key areas, the less likely the scumteam is.

Yes, this will lead to some "lazy" teams being relatively higher up, but I'll get to those when I finish.

I'm probably not explaining this properly, will try to lay it out better later.

vote count 1.final

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm

,

Titus

, furtiveglance,

Ausuka, RCEnigma

, Klick,

BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax

, PenguinPower,

petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens

, fireisredsir

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb,

Ircher

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

So would ya look at this.

The only possible both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}
{Uncrowned, jjh}

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{furtive, PenguinPower}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

Wouldn't ya know it? None of those both-remaining-on combos seem particularly likely but if they were, furtive is in prime scum position right there with Titus.

So the only realistic possibilities are both-remaining-off (unlikely), or one-on one-off.

I realize one-on one-off has a lot more combos, which is why I wanted the bloody time to lay this all out.

{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, fire}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

A lot more combos, which I'd have been happy to break down if you hadn't fucking hammered when I asked for a day. (Particular shame on you, jjh, for not unvoting when you knew I wanted this.)

Putting these together, Datisi could lock any minute so gotta go fast.

Starting with a pagetop.

VOTE: fire

why is it not believable that i would target the same player twice in a row?

The cost is 150%. (Do the math--0% productivity on D1 + 50% productivity on D2 = 150% banked for N2.)

whats the issue penguin

why do you think someone with a 150% requirement is going to act again/why do you think scum lying about it would take an action that's not killing you?

choo choo
VOTE: furtive

I do happen to agree with mastina's takes, however.

(Which is fire + furtive)

I actually don’t really want s_s anymore today…prefer furtive or fire.

Still completely fine with yeeting furtive.

btw was there a reason we aren't killing fire today i forgot

No idea. Furtive/fire are my preference but I’m sheeping you rn.

We can safely eliminate PenguinPower from being paired with either fire or furtive because those have been his pushes today.

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

(Both off unchanged.)

Scum:
furtiveglance

Okay, question for furtiveglance and specifically NOT Nero then
Who are Nero's scumreads

More. (That whole area is RE: furtive pretty much.)

My gut reaction is that you have placed much higher value on broadcasting the fact that you have reads and making sure everyone else knows you have reads than I would expect of town

You hope others will townread you because of your reads, draw attention to them as a defence, and generally seem more preoccupied with ticking that "thing that town players do" box rather than using it as a tool to spur conversation and more accurately place people
At the base level, you appear to prioritise being townread over gaining information with which to eliminate scum.

Yeah, the gut read was very much based on the earlygame. We're moving into logic territory now as the gears are turning and I'm now also concerned by your lack of interaction with your scumreads

For the record, I have read your list of reads, both while just keeping up and also while rereading the whole game a couple of hours back.
But yeah, generally speaking, your scumreads look entirely observational in nature and you don't seem to have made an effort to verify that. Ircher being absent makes that understandable to an extent but I'd feel better if you'd had a meaningful interaction with Roden somewhere

Pretty sure these were with furtive, too.

This is a rush job, not reading entire iso to check later stages so could be incorrect, but:

Generally speaking, jjh's interactions significantly reduce the chance of him being scum with furtive.

That being said, I have been thinking about this game and I'd like to help mastina revive the wagon on
VOTE: furtiveglance

Means 2 scum in Furtive, Mala, Klick, Uncrowned, and I'm very much swayed by mastina's point on furtive's 2820. That might depend on whether or not Mastina actually HAS left something out of her role. Scum 100% rolecopped Mastina in n1, because Titus' fakeclaim came before Mastina's and copied the 150% cost to make it more credible

The other names are Klick/Uncrowned, but there's not enough for jjh to be unpaired with them, sadly. jjh has soft-defended Klick but has no such defense of Uncrowned tho. And jjh can be scum with those he lists as town.

Still, that leaves:
The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}

{Uncrowned, jjh}

(reduced probability by inference of jjh soft-protecting Klick, but not nearly as much as anti-furtive associates)
(Also fixed the accidental double-up of Uncrowned+fire the latter of which was jjh.)

VOTE: Uncrowned

I didn't queue up the prior Andres posts where he stated Uncrowned suspicion since he didn't act on it until today, but Andres was soft-pushing Uncrowned the entire game and opened today with a harder push against Uncrowned.

You can safely eliminate an {Uncrowned, Andres} scumteam as a result.

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, jjh}

{Uncrowned, jjh}

(reduced probability by inference of jjh soft-protecting Klick, but not nearly as much as anti-furtive associates)

[mastina]

I need to clarify:
No, this is NOT me doing the detailed version I had planned to do.

This is me rushing to beat Datisi so this is, explicitly, a rush job.

This is not the level of thoroughness I wanted to give; this is me giving as much as I can in as little time as I have.

[mastina]

Spoiler: keeping this in the record

I need to clarify:
No, this is NOT me doing the detailed version I had planned to do.

This is me rushing to beat Datisi so this is, explicitly, a rush job.

This is not the level of thoroughness I wanted to give; this is me giving as much as I can in as little time as I have.

Btw, what I am planning to do either tonight or tomorrow is, basically, show my math/homework on logical deductions off of what we know so far.

STARTING POINTS:
Ydrasse town;
Dannflor slot town;
Something_Smart town.

With these four starting points, I want to highlight four key areas of the game:
The end of day Ircher wagon;
Every Titus vote on D2 and the circumstances behind those votes and unvotes;
The reactions (not votes) on D3 prior to the final inevitable conclusion of the day;
Interactions this day phase.

I want to better illustrate every possible remaining team given the assumptions above (Ydrasse/Dann/S_S town), demonstrating what they would require in order to be true, and why I think of those combos the way I do:
Basically impossible, plausible but unlikely, possible (yet a bit lazy), and then actually probable combos that fit the evidence throughout all four key areas.

This is because I believe that interactions are, mostly, more important than individual towniness here, and while individual towniness is not to be discarded altogether, in a gamestate where everyone has reasons to be town and everyone has reasons to be scum yet exactly two living players are scum, individual towniness can just be smart/good scumplay, whereas interactions across the key areas of the game highlight the narratives of each team combo and their necessary steps to function. A tool that I feel is far more likely to get scum eliminated.

I did this mentally already and it was how I got the fire/furtive team, as a team that fits the most easily.
But I didn’t map it out for y'all and need to show my work, as well as cover things my mental math may have overlooked.

I will admit that the shortcuts I used mean that I could’ve overlooked a correct combo, but I need the time either tonight or tomorrow to demonstrate what I am really talking about here and why I feel the way I do.

So I can’t quote the posts and actually do the breakdown now, but I can save at least some time by laying out some basic groundwork now:

WHAT WE KNOW:

-

IRCHER DELIBERATELY DIED D1

. Instead of trying to recover from the slip, he entered antispew mode, deliberately not trying to save himself. He accepted death and made no efforts to avert it.
-

TITUS HARD-BUSSED IRCHER

. Titus, notoriously an anti-bus player, bussed. Eventually, she even doubled down on the bus, as she was the first player to point out that Ircher was online yet not posting. While she might've made some attempts to weaken the wagon prior to then, it was at that moment you could tell that she was committed to the bus, and hard-pushed for Ircher's death.

CONCLUSION:

The scum knew that Ircher was going to be the D1 elimination. They explicitly were okay with this and planned around it. Both flipped scum past a certain point made no effort to save Ircher, so at least half of the scumteam not only was okay with his death, but actively pushed towards it.

Their motives for doing so are speculation. I tried to word the above in a neutral way not favoring any particular speculate as to the why, although maybe there's an even better wording for the above. So don't take the above to be favoring one specific Motive.
Still, I feel it's not controversial to say that it's a fact that the scum did, indeed, do the above. The motivation for WHY they did it is speculatory, but them doing it is fact. The scum let Ircher die, and actively pushed for it.

SPECULATION:

Because both flipped scum were okay with an Ircher elimination, it is

more likely

that the surviving scum also were. It is not confirmed, scum comms can be hectic, but it's generally a reasonable assumption. I won't be treating it as fact, and will still cover scenarios requiring those situations.

However, this leads to a generalized posit:

It is

less likely

both remaining scum are off the Ircher wagon

Not impossible, but I will cover the different scenarios when doing a detailed breakdown on how it's possible, and how likely it is. (Lack of scum coordination, scum genuinely believing that being off was better, etc.)

I can't list all the possible both-off, both-on, 50/50 teams right now, but I'll do so just before the detailed breakdown begins.

Next part:

The Titus voters on D2:

I should specify: I

mostly

expect the early Titus votes to be nai; any wagon could’ve gone through that early, so Titus was in no real danger;
I

mostly

expect the late Titus votes to be nai, because Roden's elimination past a certain point became basically inevitable, meaning that scum could place votes there which were performative.

However, the middle section of the day is important: when both wagons could’ve gone through, hopping onto Titus is more likely town; hopping off of Titus is slightly more likely scum.

Inversely, hopping onto Roden is slightly more likely to be scum at that point. (Hopping off isn’t town tho imo.)

D3 is important to note who demonstrated followthrough on Titus before the results had fully played out. The results also have town spewing lack of info and scum revealing TMI imo.

And D4 is important, because while weak pushes aren't antipartner, strong extended serious actual pushes backed by wagons are indicators that greatly reduce the odds of the individuals being partnered.

Again, not impossible.

But I will be showing across all four fields the requirements. What needed to go on for this scumteam to be possible. And the improbabilities stack and multiply. One improbability doesn’t disqualify a scumteam from contention. 3+ almost assuredly makes it borderline impossible.

The more requirements for a scumteam to exist, the more convoluted the process becomes, the more justification required and the more stretches of logic required across those key areas, the less likely the scumteam is.

Yes, this will lead to some "lazy" teams being relatively higher up, but I'll get to those when I finish.

I'm probably not explaining this properly, will try to lay it out better later.

vote count 1.final

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm

,

Titus

, furtiveglance,

Ausuka, RCEnigma

, Klick,

BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax

, PenguinPower,

petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens

, fireisredsir

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb,

Ircher

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

So would ya look at this.

The only possible both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}
{Uncrowned, jjh}

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{furtive, PenguinPower}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

Wouldn't ya know it? None of those both-remaining-on combos seem particularly likely but if they were, furtive is in prime scum position right there with Titus.

So the only realistic possibilities are both-remaining-off (unlikely), or one-on one-off.

I realize one-on one-off has a lot more combos, which is why I wanted the bloody time to lay this all out.

{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, fire}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

A lot more combos, which I'd have been happy to break down if you hadn't fucking hammered when I asked for a day. (Particular shame on you, jjh, for not unvoting when you knew I wanted this.)

Putting these together, Datisi could lock any minute so gotta go fast.

Starting with a pagetop.

VOTE: fire

why is it not believable that i would target the same player twice in a row?

The cost is 150%. (Do the math--0% productivity on D1 + 50% productivity on D2 = 150% banked for N2.)

whats the issue penguin

why do you think someone with a 150% requirement is going to act again/why do you think scum lying about it would take an action that's not killing you?

choo choo
VOTE: furtive

I do happen to agree with mastina's takes, however.

(Which is fire + furtive)

I actually don’t really want s_s anymore today…prefer furtive or fire.

Still completely fine with yeeting furtive.

btw was there a reason we aren't killing fire today i forgot

No idea. Furtive/fire are my preference but I’m sheeping you rn.

We can safely eliminate PenguinPower from being paired with either fire or furtive because those have been his pushes today.

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

(Both off unchanged.)

Scum:
furtiveglance

Okay, question for furtiveglance and specifically NOT Nero then
Who are Nero's scumreads

More. (That whole area is RE: furtive pretty much.)

My gut reaction is that you have placed much higher value on broadcasting the fact that you have reads and making sure everyone else knows you have reads than I would expect of town

You hope others will townread you because of your reads, draw attention to them as a defence, and generally seem more preoccupied with ticking that "thing that town players do" box rather than using it as a tool to spur conversation and more accurately place people
At the base level, you appear to prioritise being townread over gaining information with which to eliminate scum.

Yeah, the gut read was very much based on the earlygame. We're moving into logic territory now as the gears are turning and I'm now also concerned by your lack of interaction with your scumreads

For the record, I have read your list of reads, both while just keeping up and also while rereading the whole game a couple of hours back.
But yeah, generally speaking, your scumreads look entirely observational in nature and you don't seem to have made an effort to verify that. Ircher being absent makes that understandable to an extent but I'd feel better if you'd had a meaningful interaction with Roden somewhere

Pretty sure these were with furtive, too.

This is a rush job, not reading entire iso to check later stages so could be incorrect, but:

Generally speaking, jjh's interactions significantly reduce the chance of him being scum with furtive.

That being said, I have been thinking about this game and I'd like to help mastina revive the wagon on
VOTE: furtiveglance

Means 2 scum in Furtive, Mala, Klick, Uncrowned, and I'm very much swayed by mastina's point on furtive's 2820. That might depend on whether or not Mastina actually HAS left something out of her role. Scum 100% rolecopped Mastina in n1, because Titus' fakeclaim came before Mastina's and copied the 150% cost to make it more credible

The other names are Klick/Uncrowned, but there's not enough for jjh to be unpaired with them, sadly. jjh has soft-defended Klick but has no such defense of Uncrowned tho. And jjh can be scum with those he lists as town.

Still, that leaves:
The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}

{Uncrowned, jjh}

(reduced probability by inference of jjh soft-protecting Klick, but not nearly as much as anti-furtive associates)
(Also fixed the accidental double-up of Uncrowned+fire the latter of which was jjh.)

VOTE: Uncrowned

I didn't queue up the prior Andres posts where he stated Uncrowned suspicion since he didn't act on it until today, but Andres was soft-pushing Uncrowned the entire game and opened today with a harder push against Uncrowned.

You can safely eliminate an {Uncrowned, Andres} scumteam as a result.

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, jjh}

{Uncrowned, jjh}

(reduced probability by inference of jjh soft-protecting Klick, but not nearly as much as anti-furtive associates)

Oh yeah I should do this
VOTE: Malakittens

elaborate

Slightly reduces the Uncrowned-jjh pairing on the Uncrowned half.

m willing to throw my vote in the "will go to ircher if things move away and then struggle to return there" if that helps

but ok, that seems reasonable i think, and i at least understand your thought process more now

i don't get why you question me, gets answers, ignore them, and then shift your vote from me to titus after ydrasse unvotes me

it's like you want to engage but then when you actually receive answers, you just go to something else while still throwing shade, like keeping your options open?

"idk why people think uncrowned is town because ive looked at his scumplay, but it also looks like his townplay" or whatever. it's just constant hedging and has been a theme of your play this game. your actual solidified reads are few and far between and it seems like you're leaving doors open to keep your play flexible, something i'd attribute much more as +scum. maybe it's the low confidence thing you're talking about, but this seems awfully non-committal

it kinda seems like her thoughts are surface level intended to sound reasonable tho? like she hasn't said anything super out there it's just that they don't feel like they quite click into a consistent mindset, like luke was saying

it's like you see opportunities to make comments but then not provided much follow up? like the titus vote in general doesn't feel super convincing

also, couldn't we apply this same logic to you? what makes your two slots different? up until your vote on her, you had very little to say about her so what changed? from what i'm aware of, her main string of posting had already occurred before your vote on me, and you didn't have a lot to say then

what
i thought your answers were fine and didn't continue to engage with them bc i thought they were fine and i didn't have anything further to say
i then voted elsewhere bc i thought you had been fine since then
i don't particularly scumread you anymore but i don't really understand the townreads either. you seem solidly in range of both alignments to me. there's some stuff that feels genuine, and some stuff that feels off

so i've "been fine"
but some stuff "feels off"
that you still haven't engaged on
ok imma leave this for now this is getting nowhere lmao

Hammer Ircher!

am happy to soon, we have plenty of time and i don't think this is the type of slot that's going to talk their way out of the wagon shifting elsewhere, given what we've seen so far from Ircher's posting

are you in a hurry for some reason?

these reads feel kinda convenient

(This was to furtive, so Uncrowned was calling furtive's reads convenient.)

I'm not submitting a gamesolve here, I'm trying to flag up scummy players that are being ignored.

yeah but that just seems like town signalling (idk if that's the right phrase for it) instead of just, pushing the slots?

green flip would have me looking in {Mastina, Andre, Kilck, Mala, Ydrasse} with preference being: Mala, Andre, Mastina, Ydrasse, Klick

red flip would have me looking in (Luke, Fire} with preference being Luke

i am unsure of where i stand on furtive, ausuka, yourself, jjh

What are we doing? Voting fires?
VOTE: firez

i guess so
VOTE: Fire

Secondly, I have felt for many moons that Malakittens is not town. Could it be Mala/Uncrowned?
I'll backstab Uncrowned after townreading him all game, because Andres wants it and I'd like to see some momentum on a non F name. Don't get me wrong, Dannflor is still suspicious.
VOTE: Uncrowned

ooo interesting

My final guess for mafia is [Malakittens, Uncrowned].

when did you start to feel this way about me bby

furtive does deserve to die tho for betraying me ngl now that I think about it

Unfortunately, none of these hard-remove any scumteam with Uncrowned. However, softly, these indicate less-likely scum with furtive, fire, and maybe Klick. Not enough to be removed, but enough to be knocked down into "less likely".

{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}

{furtive, Uncrowned}

(reduced probability by interaction with furtive)
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}

{Klick, Uncrowned}

(potentially reduced probability due to interaction, but not certain thanks to no follow-through)
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}

{fire, Uncrowned}

(reduced probability by interaction with fire)
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, jjh}

{Uncrowned, jjh}

(reduced probability by inference of jjh soft-protecting Klick + Uncrowned-jjh interaction, but not nearly as much as anti-furtive associates)

[mastina]

Spoiler: keeping this in the record

I need to clarify:
No, this is NOT me doing the detailed version I had planned to do.

This is me rushing to beat Datisi so this is, explicitly, a rush job.

This is not the level of thoroughness I wanted to give; this is me giving as much as I can in as little time as I have.

Btw, what I am planning to do either tonight or tomorrow is, basically, show my math/homework on logical deductions off of what we know so far.

STARTING POINTS:
Ydrasse town;
Dannflor slot town;
Something_Smart town.

With these four starting points, I want to highlight four key areas of the game:
The end of day Ircher wagon;
Every Titus vote on D2 and the circumstances behind those votes and unvotes;
The reactions (not votes) on D3 prior to the final inevitable conclusion of the day;
Interactions this day phase.

I want to better illustrate every possible remaining team given the assumptions above (Ydrasse/Dann/S_S town), demonstrating what they would require in order to be true, and why I think of those combos the way I do:
Basically impossible, plausible but unlikely, possible (yet a bit lazy), and then actually probable combos that fit the evidence throughout all four key areas.

This is because I believe that interactions are, mostly, more important than individual towniness here, and while individual towniness is not to be discarded altogether, in a gamestate where everyone has reasons to be town and everyone has reasons to be scum yet exactly two living players are scum, individual towniness can just be smart/good scumplay, whereas interactions across the key areas of the game highlight the narratives of each team combo and their necessary steps to function. A tool that I feel is far more likely to get scum eliminated.

I did this mentally already and it was how I got the fire/furtive team, as a team that fits the most easily.
But I didn’t map it out for y'all and need to show my work, as well as cover things my mental math may have overlooked.

I will admit that the shortcuts I used mean that I could’ve overlooked a correct combo, but I need the time either tonight or tomorrow to demonstrate what I am really talking about here and why I feel the way I do.

So I can’t quote the posts and actually do the breakdown now, but I can save at least some time by laying out some basic groundwork now:

WHAT WE KNOW:

-

IRCHER DELIBERATELY DIED D1

. Instead of trying to recover from the slip, he entered antispew mode, deliberately not trying to save himself. He accepted death and made no efforts to avert it.
-

TITUS HARD-BUSSED IRCHER

. Titus, notoriously an anti-bus player, bussed. Eventually, she even doubled down on the bus, as she was the first player to point out that Ircher was online yet not posting. While she might've made some attempts to weaken the wagon prior to then, it was at that moment you could tell that she was committed to the bus, and hard-pushed for Ircher's death.

CONCLUSION:

The scum knew that Ircher was going to be the D1 elimination. They explicitly were okay with this and planned around it. Both flipped scum past a certain point made no effort to save Ircher, so at least half of the scumteam not only was okay with his death, but actively pushed towards it.

Their motives for doing so are speculation. I tried to word the above in a neutral way not favoring any particular speculate as to the why, although maybe there's an even better wording for the above. So don't take the above to be favoring one specific Motive.
Still, I feel it's not controversial to say that it's a fact that the scum did, indeed, do the above. The motivation for WHY they did it is speculatory, but them doing it is fact. The scum let Ircher die, and actively pushed for it.

SPECULATION:

Because both flipped scum were okay with an Ircher elimination, it is

more likely

that the surviving scum also were. It is not confirmed, scum comms can be hectic, but it's generally a reasonable assumption. I won't be treating it as fact, and will still cover scenarios requiring those situations.

However, this leads to a generalized posit:

It is

less likely

both remaining scum are off the Ircher wagon

Not impossible, but I will cover the different scenarios when doing a detailed breakdown on how it's possible, and how likely it is. (Lack of scum coordination, scum genuinely believing that being off was better, etc.)

I can't list all the possible both-off, both-on, 50/50 teams right now, but I'll do so just before the detailed breakdown begins.

Next part:

The Titus voters on D2:

I should specify: I

mostly

expect the early Titus votes to be nai; any wagon could’ve gone through that early, so Titus was in no real danger;
I

mostly

expect the late Titus votes to be nai, because Roden's elimination past a certain point became basically inevitable, meaning that scum could place votes there which were performative.

However, the middle section of the day is important: when both wagons could’ve gone through, hopping onto Titus is more likely town; hopping off of Titus is slightly more likely scum.

Inversely, hopping onto Roden is slightly more likely to be scum at that point. (Hopping off isn’t town tho imo.)

D3 is important to note who demonstrated followthrough on Titus before the results had fully played out. The results also have town spewing lack of info and scum revealing TMI imo.

And D4 is important, because while weak pushes aren't antipartner, strong extended serious actual pushes backed by wagons are indicators that greatly reduce the odds of the individuals being partnered.

Again, not impossible.

But I will be showing across all four fields the requirements. What needed to go on for this scumteam to be possible. And the improbabilities stack and multiply. One improbability doesn’t disqualify a scumteam from contention. 3+ almost assuredly makes it borderline impossible.

The more requirements for a scumteam to exist, the more convoluted the process becomes, the more justification required and the more stretches of logic required across those key areas, the less likely the scumteam is.

Yes, this will lead to some "lazy" teams being relatively higher up, but I'll get to those when I finish.

I'm probably not explaining this properly, will try to lay it out better later.

vote count 1.final

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm

,

Titus

, furtiveglance,

Ausuka, RCEnigma

, Klick,

BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax

, PenguinPower,

petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens

, fireisredsir

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb,

Ircher

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

So would ya look at this.

The only possible both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}
{Uncrowned, jjh}

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{furtive, PenguinPower}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

Wouldn't ya know it? None of those both-remaining-on combos seem particularly likely but if they were, furtive is in prime scum position right there with Titus.

So the only realistic possibilities are both-remaining-off (unlikely), or one-on one-off.

I realize one-on one-off has a lot more combos, which is why I wanted the bloody time to lay this all out.

{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, fire}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

A lot more combos, which I'd have been happy to break down if you hadn't fucking hammered when I asked for a day. (Particular shame on you, jjh, for not unvoting when you knew I wanted this.)

Putting these together, Datisi could lock any minute so gotta go fast.

Starting with a pagetop.

VOTE: fire

why is it not believable that i would target the same player twice in a row?

The cost is 150%. (Do the math--0% productivity on D1 + 50% productivity on D2 = 150% banked for N2.)

whats the issue penguin

why do you think someone with a 150% requirement is going to act again/why do you think scum lying about it would take an action that's not killing you?

choo choo
VOTE: furtive

I do happen to agree with mastina's takes, however.

(Which is fire + furtive)

I actually don’t really want s_s anymore today…prefer furtive or fire.

Still completely fine with yeeting furtive.

btw was there a reason we aren't killing fire today i forgot

No idea. Furtive/fire are my preference but I’m sheeping you rn.

We can safely eliminate PenguinPower from being paired with either fire or furtive because those have been his pushes today.

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

(Both off unchanged.)

Scum:
furtiveglance

Okay, question for furtiveglance and specifically NOT Nero then
Who are Nero's scumreads

More. (That whole area is RE: furtive pretty much.)

My gut reaction is that you have placed much higher value on broadcasting the fact that you have reads and making sure everyone else knows you have reads than I would expect of town

You hope others will townread you because of your reads, draw attention to them as a defence, and generally seem more preoccupied with ticking that "thing that town players do" box rather than using it as a tool to spur conversation and more accurately place people
At the base level, you appear to prioritise being townread over gaining information with which to eliminate scum.

Yeah, the gut read was very much based on the earlygame. We're moving into logic territory now as the gears are turning and I'm now also concerned by your lack of interaction with your scumreads

For the record, I have read your list of reads, both while just keeping up and also while rereading the whole game a couple of hours back.
But yeah, generally speaking, your scumreads look entirely observational in nature and you don't seem to have made an effort to verify that. Ircher being absent makes that understandable to an extent but I'd feel better if you'd had a meaningful interaction with Roden somewhere

Pretty sure these were with furtive, too.

This is a rush job, not reading entire iso to check later stages so could be incorrect, but:

Generally speaking, jjh's interactions significantly reduce the chance of him being scum with furtive.

That being said, I have been thinking about this game and I'd like to help mastina revive the wagon on
VOTE: furtiveglance

Means 2 scum in Furtive, Mala, Klick, Uncrowned, and I'm very much swayed by mastina's point on furtive's 2820. That might depend on whether or not Mastina actually HAS left something out of her role. Scum 100% rolecopped Mastina in n1, because Titus' fakeclaim came before Mastina's and copied the 150% cost to make it more credible

The other names are Klick/Uncrowned, but there's not enough for jjh to be unpaired with them, sadly. jjh has soft-defended Klick but has no such defense of Uncrowned tho. And jjh can be scum with those he lists as town.

Still, that leaves:
The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}

{Uncrowned, jjh}

(reduced probability by inference of jjh soft-protecting Klick, but not nearly as much as anti-furtive associates)
(Also fixed the accidental double-up of Uncrowned+fire the latter of which was jjh.)

VOTE: Uncrowned

I didn't queue up the prior Andres posts where he stated Uncrowned suspicion since he didn't act on it until today, but Andres was soft-pushing Uncrowned the entire game and opened today with a harder push against Uncrowned.

You can safely eliminate an {Uncrowned, Andres} scumteam as a result.

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, jjh}

{Uncrowned, jjh}

(reduced probability by inference of jjh soft-protecting Klick, but not nearly as much as anti-furtive associates)

Oh yeah I should do this
VOTE: Malakittens

elaborate

Slightly reduces the Uncrowned-jjh pairing on the Uncrowned half.

m willing to throw my vote in the "will go to ircher if things move away and then struggle to return there" if that helps

but ok, that seems reasonable i think, and i at least understand your thought process more now

i don't get why you question me, gets answers, ignore them, and then shift your vote from me to titus after ydrasse unvotes me

it's like you want to engage but then when you actually receive answers, you just go to something else while still throwing shade, like keeping your options open?

"idk why people think uncrowned is town because ive looked at his scumplay, but it also looks like his townplay" or whatever. it's just constant hedging and has been a theme of your play this game. your actual solidified reads are few and far between and it seems like you're leaving doors open to keep your play flexible, something i'd attribute much more as +scum. maybe it's the low confidence thing you're talking about, but this seems awfully non-committal

it kinda seems like her thoughts are surface level intended to sound reasonable tho? like she hasn't said anything super out there it's just that they don't feel like they quite click into a consistent mindset, like luke was saying

it's like you see opportunities to make comments but then not provided much follow up? like the titus vote in general doesn't feel super convincing

also, couldn't we apply this same logic to you? what makes your two slots different? up until your vote on her, you had very little to say about her so what changed? from what i'm aware of, her main string of posting had already occurred before your vote on me, and you didn't have a lot to say then

what
i thought your answers were fine and didn't continue to engage with them bc i thought they were fine and i didn't have anything further to say
i then voted elsewhere bc i thought you had been fine since then
i don't particularly scumread you anymore but i don't really understand the townreads either. you seem solidly in range of both alignments to me. there's some stuff that feels genuine, and some stuff that feels off

so i've "been fine"
but some stuff "feels off"
that you still haven't engaged on
ok imma leave this for now this is getting nowhere lmao

Hammer Ircher!

am happy to soon, we have plenty of time and i don't think this is the type of slot that's going to talk their way out of the wagon shifting elsewhere, given what we've seen so far from Ircher's posting

are you in a hurry for some reason?

these reads feel kinda convenient

(This was to furtive, so Uncrowned was calling furtive's reads convenient.)

I'm not submitting a gamesolve here, I'm trying to flag up scummy players that are being ignored.

yeah but that just seems like town signalling (idk if that's the right phrase for it) instead of just, pushing the slots?

green flip would have me looking in {Mastina, Andre, Kilck, Mala, Ydrasse} with preference being: Mala, Andre, Mastina, Ydrasse, Klick

red flip would have me looking in (Luke, Fire} with preference being Luke

i am unsure of where i stand on furtive, ausuka, yourself, jjh

What are we doing? Voting fires?
VOTE: firez

i guess so
VOTE: Fire

Secondly, I have felt for many moons that Malakittens is not town. Could it be Mala/Uncrowned?
I'll backstab Uncrowned after townreading him all game, because Andres wants it and I'd like to see some momentum on a non F name. Don't get me wrong, Dannflor is still suspicious.
VOTE: Uncrowned

ooo interesting

My final guess for mafia is [Malakittens, Uncrowned].

when did you start to feel this way about me bby

furtive does deserve to die tho for betraying me ngl now that I think about it

Unfortunately, none of these hard-remove any scumteam with Uncrowned. However, softly, these indicate less-likely scum with furtive, fire, and maybe Klick. Not enough to be removed, but enough to be knocked down into "less likely".

{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}

{furtive, Uncrowned}

(reduced probability by interaction with furtive)
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}

{Klick, Uncrowned}

(potentially reduced probability due to interaction, but not certain thanks to no follow-through)
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}

{fire, Uncrowned}

(reduced probability by interaction with fire)
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, jjh}

{Uncrowned, jjh}

(reduced probability by inference of jjh soft-protecting Klick + Uncrowned-jjh interaction, but not nearly as much as anti-furtive associates)

VOTE: uncrowned

my understanding is you have experience with uncrowned, is your feeling there based on knowing them?
i am not feeling the good vibes

my understanding is you have experience with uncrowned, is your feeling there based on knowing them?
i am not feeling the good vibes

VOTE: uncrowned

interesting choice for a vanity considering it's on the one guy that called you out
out of interest, do these vibes also apply to furtive? if not, why?

didn't really feel like you had an actual interest in sorting me, felt like you were just checking a box on a list of things you're supposed to be doing in a mafia game. feels a little artificial
which is kinda how ive felt about a lot of your posting so far. it kinda reminds me of how i like to play scum actually, which maybe is why i noticed. it feels like you're playing with the goal of generating townreads on yourself and not with the goal of finding scum
does not apply to furtive, furtive seems towny

from like, a fear of being elimmed perspective? no.
from a "there's probably at least one scum on here" yeah I think so?

granted the activity level of the entire wagon is low but i doubt it's just all town chillin on there
i think andre is good out of them, everyone else im null to SLing on

this seems like a really weird thing for you to fixate on
why would there specifically be scum on the ydra wagon
what spawned this thought for you

having looked at uncrowned's scumplay i don't really get why this is clearly town but i do kinda feel similar vibes from the town games as well, so idk maybe im wrong

i don't get why you question me, gets answers, ignore them, and then shift your vote from me to titus after ydrasse unvotes me
it's like you want to engage but then when you actually receive answers, you just go to something else while still throwing shade, like keeping your options open?
"idk why people think uncrowned is town because ive looked at his scumplay, but it also looks like his townplay" or whatever. it's just constant hedging and has been a theme of your play this game. your actual solidified reads are few and far between and it seems like you're leaving doors open to keep your play flexible, something i'd attribute much more as +scum. maybe it's the low confidence thing you're talking about, but this seems awfully non-committal

what
i thought your answers were fine and didn't continue to engage with them bc i thought they were fine and i didn't have anything further to say
i then voted elsewhere bc i thought you had been fine since then
i don't particularly scumread you anymore but i don't really understand the townreads either. you seem solidly in range of both alignments to me. there's some stuff that feels genuine, and some stuff that feels off
so... ??
i don't get what the issue is here. why is it weird that i unvoted you after not engaging with your answers? are you saying that you would have found it less weird if i continued voting you after not engaging with your answers? bc i don't believe that

it kinda seems like her thoughts are surface level intended to sound reasonable tho? like she hasn't said anything super out there it's just that they don't feel like they quite click into a consistent mindset, like luke was saying

it's like you see opportunities to make comments but then not provided much follow up? like the titus vote in general doesn't feel super convincing
also, couldn't we apply this same logic to you? what makes your two slots different? up until your vote on her, you had very little to say about her so what changed? from what i'm aware of, her main string of posting had already occurred before your vote on me, and you didn't have a lot to say then

i was responding to a specific meta point that someone made, idk why it would apply to me
i had thought about her a bit previously but it wasn't my focus
i just am really confused what you're getting at with these posts and it's hard not to view them as very reach-y. i don't understand the issues that you seem to be having with my play

so i've "been fine"
but some stuff "feels off"
that you still haven't engaged on
ok imma leave this for now this is getting nowhere lmao

yes, i do not engage with everyone about every point that i think feels off
sometimes i think it would be useful to do so, like if i could try to better understand a thought process or clarify a point or if i think asking about it could help me sort them in some way or if i want to pressure or if i want other people to look at the things im pointing out
sometimes none of those really apply
i don't think that me telling you that my gut reaction to some of your posts is that you're forcing your points a little bit and everything feels kinda... appeal-y? is going to be useful
id rather just let you do your thing for now and watch and see if i still feel that way after more things have happened

I need to heavily reconsider fireisredsir as potential scum, I think.

I think I can see how he developed into a townread for me naturally in a way that made me not want to reconsider. But I've started on his ISO and not only does it not read as towny in the way I originally hard townread him early, but he explicitly says in 391 that he thinks the same way I do in terms of what is AI/what he'd normally do as scum. My most used sorting tool is 'what does this person want to achieve with their posts, is their primary goal getting townread or some other goal more closely aligning with a town win condition'. And fire reveals there that he plays at a level where he'd be aware and able to mask his intentions adequately enough to produce a natural townread from me as scum.

I'll keep reading when I get a moment tomorrow (need to sleep now), but that's where I'm expecting to vote. Dannflor doesn't feel like a correct scumread. Ydrasse has S_S in the correct category. I think jjh actually has a pretty decent chance of being scum, but not with like actual confidence, and I'd like to hear more details about mastina's townread there and see if it's translatable at all to reasoning I'd agree with.

But so far with a game's worth of context on fire's play, I'm not seeing town at all on an altogether read-through of the slot like I did when just reading the game as it happened.

i don't really get this, it seems like... super shallow reasoning? what about my play this game looks like it was meant to generate townreads?

like, your core point here is that me suspecting someone for looking like they're playing to get townread (and comparing it to how i play scum) made you think i was capable of doing that

do you... just have a baseline assumption that people in general aren't?

idk it just seems like a kinda opportunistic reassessment and i don't really believe that this only occurred to you now

ok dumping some reread notes, first up, looking over klick im not really sure why i had been townreading there

maybe i got pocketed by the early townread on me idk

started out a bit awk with 114, not really sure why that's something they care about

in general i think the progression of the readlists looked towny to me but is p easy to fake especially when they aren't giving a lot of reasons for their reads. makes it look like they're sitting back and quietly solving the game but there isn't really much evidence of that actually happening

oh ok i remember more of why i was townreading now, i liked 694 as a response at the time. i still kinda do but i also still don't really love the original post that i was questioning anyway. idk

reading their more recent posts i think they just come across as exceptionally reasonable to me, and it tends to be very hard for me to find those types of players as scum. the seeming lack of re-evaluation after roden and titus flip through 2079 to 2764 is actually kinda really concerning. those lists are very similar despite the strongest scumread and one of the townreads in the first one being revealed as wrong. and especially the lack of re-eval on SS feels like they are trying to maintain a poe while not thinking that critically about the game

ok i thought 384 from rce was p bad and then uncrowned shows up in 384 and calls it goated posting hmmmm
469 felt like such a weird line to go down at the time, and looking back now it easily could have been an attempt to pivot things away from ircher, right when ircher first returned to the thread which is when scum might have thought they had a chance to go somewhere else
574 also kinda a weird blanket discredit of the ircher wagon
since d1 he had the slightly overaggressive push on roden and then has mostly disappeared
i don't feel very strongly about this tbh, i think maybe part of me wants to believe that my early vibe read was correct and he's scum, but i only see a couple things that feel like they could have scum motivation (the push away from ircher as soon as he returns to thread, and hard pushing the roden wagon d2). his lack of feeling a need to influence gamestate lately could just be town ig, dunno

i thought about voting klick but the more i think about it the more i think i want to go here for now
VOTE: andres
gn

@fire I’m not really going to defend not voting for Ircher. But I’m not sure I get what Scum agenda I’m supposedly pushing. In any case, being wrong doesn’t mean anything, but I can’t fault you for being suspicious I guess. You are, however, way off, and I really wouldn’t play like this as Scum.

its not really just about not voting for ircher. there's a lot of places where it just feels like you're positioned right where, looking back, it seems useful for scum to be. i can go into more detail later if you want
and there's not a lot that really feels like it makes more sense coming from town that i see
what do you mean by you wouldn't play like this as scum? what do you think you've done this game thats different from your scum game?

There's a lot more to the Andres push from fire as well.

fire's interactions may or may not clear him from teams--if I had more time I would more properly investigate these.
However, I would say {fire, Klick} and {fire, Andres} are both far less likely at the least, maybe even eliminated entirely.
{fire, Uncrowned} is made less likely from the fire side.

Remaining both-on combos:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}

{furtive, Uncrowned}

(reduced probability by interaction with furtive)
{Klick, Andres}

{Klick, Uncrowned}

(potentially reduced probability due to interaction, but not certain thanks to no follow-through)
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

both-remaining-scum-off combos are:

{fire, Uncrowned}

(reduced probability by interaction with fire + fire interaction with Uncrowned)
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, jjh}

{Uncrowned, jjh}

(reduced probability by inference of jjh soft-protecting Klick + Uncrowned-jjh interaction, but not nearly as much as anti-furtive associates)

[Datisi]

i have a lot of classes today, flip coming as soon as i can

[Datisi]

vote count 4.final

with 12 votes in play, it took 7 to make a decision. day 4 ended.

firing

Malakittens [7]:

furtiveglance, Uncrowned, jjh927, fireisredsir, Dannflor, Ydrasse, Andresvmb

[HAMMER]

Andresvmb [2]:

Klick, PenguinPower

furtiveglance [1]:

mastina

fireisredsir [1]:

Malakittens

not voting [1]:

Something_Smart

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▶ ❚❚ ──────────────●────────────────  2:05 / 4:32

[Datisi]

flavour

it was another slow day. on a usual day at work, you wouldn't notice this crawling passage of time, as you'd be spending it on your phone or carelessly chatting with the colleagues. but with serious discussion taking place in the break room, it was a grueling day. you wondered if so few customers were really not out of the ordinary.

the clock on the wall indicated that it was almost time to go home. which was great, but the decision had not yet been made.

"maybe Malakittens should get fired," said one person, with a bunch of others quickly agreeing. Malakittens was sitting in the corner, typing on her phone; she didn't show any signs of even hearing them.

"Malakittens, do you have anything to say for yourself?" Andresvmb asked her. she didn't take her gaze off her phone screen.

"well, alright then," he said after a moment of silence, "i'll go tell Datisi that we're done here."

Malakittens mumbled a quiet "whatever".

shortly after, Andresvmb returned with Datisi. he was complaining about being interrupted in his studies, though the employees knew that probably meant he was losing at online tetris.

"Malakittens, return your--"

"yeah, yeah, here is your ID," she said as she got up, took her ID card, and ripped it in half.

for a moment, Datisi was quietly looking at the ripped pieces falling to the ground.

"Malakittens...

again

?"

"what can i say?"

and with that, she left the room. Datisi sighed, wished his employees a good night, and went back into his office. they were left there dumbfounded, wondering what that conversation was about.

[Datisi]

Malakittens has been fired day 4. she was a

history expert

, aligned with

the inspectors

.

Spoiler: role pm

history expert

welcome,

Malakittens

! you are a

history expert

, aligned with

the inspectors

!

before accepting this job, you did your research on this place. it seems that employees come and go, with a lot of layoffs in the company books.

factional abilities:

you are a member of the inspectors, along with

|

[REDACTED]

|

. you may talk with your living teammates in the inspectors private topic, located

|

[REDACTED]

|

. you may talk there at any time as long as you are alive. once every night, a living member of the inspectors may submit a factional action of attempting to get a player fired.

night abilities:

informed [passive]

-

|

[REDACTED]

|

win condition:

you win once all threats to

the inspectors

have been fired, or nothing can prevent this from occurring, and at least one member of

the inspectors

is still in the game.

the main thread is here. please confirm by replying to this pm with your role name, or by posting in your pt.

the sun sets, it is now night 4. sunrise in (expired on 2022-10-15 11:30:00).

as they haven't posted in the last 24 hours, PenguinPower, Something_Smart, and Uncrowned must respond to the nightstart pm within 24 hours, or they will get replaced during the night.

[Datisi]

flavour

Datisi was late for work.

again

. the café was left unlocked, but it didn't seem like anything was stolen. not that there was anything worth stealing, anyway.

you settled in the break room, most of you with a cup of coffee in hand, wondering whether to call anyone, when your phones went off. another text from Datisi.

"i'm taking the morning off. Ydrasse and mastina won't be showing up for work. good luck."

a collective sigh was heard. no discussion about getting paid above the minimum wage this morning, then.

[Datisi]

Ydrasse has been fired night 4. she was a

party crasher

, aligned with

café's employees

.

Spoiler: role pm

party crasher

welcome,

Ydrasse

! you are a

party crasher

, aligned with

café's employees

!

"not invited"? nonsense! you're just... a surprise guest!

day abilities:

during each day, you may choose how productive you're going to be at work that day, ranging from 0% to 100%. if you do not submit anything, you will default to 100% productivity. for a complete explanation of this mechanic, please read the setup post, located here.

night abilities:

personal pt cop + pt joiner [cost: 10%; +5% for each additional usage]

- during the night, target a player. assuming no interference with your action, you will learn whether that player is a member of any private topics. if they are, you will join the private topics. this ability does

not

detect factional private topics.

win condition:

you win once all threats to

café's employees

have been fired, and at least one member of

café's employees

is still in the game.

the main thread is here. please confirm by replying to this pm with your role name.

mastina has been fired night 4. she was an

inspection company CEO's nibling

, aligned with

café's employees

.

Spoiler: role pm

inspection company CEO's nibling

welcome,

mastina

! you are an

inspection company CEO's nibling

, aligned with

café's employees

!

it didn't take you long to realize that the inspectors infiltrating the cafe' work for the same company that your uncle owns. it also just so happens that your uncle considers employee confidentiality optional, if compensation is included.

day abilities:

during each day, you may choose how productive you're going to be at work that day, ranging from 0% to 100%. if you do not submit anything, you will default to 100% productivity. for a complete explanation of this mechanic, please read the setup post, located here.

night abilities:

1-shot cop [cost: 150%]

- during the night, target a player. assuming no interference with your action, you will learn whether or not they are aligned with

the inspectors

. you may only use this ability once.

win condition:

you win once all threats to

café's employees

have been fired, and at least one member of

café's employees

is still in the game.

the main thread is here. please confirm by replying to this pm with your role name.

the sun rises, it is now day 5.

[Datisi]

vote count 5.00

with 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to make a decision. day 5 ends in (expired on 2022-10-25 13:45:00).

firing

not voting [9]:

PenguinPower, furtiveglance, Uncrowned, Andresvmb, jjh927, Dannflor, Klick, Something_Smart, fireisredsir

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▶ ❚❚ ────────────────●──────────────  2:01 / 3:52

[Klick]

Something_Smart should know what my role is

Now, Something_Smart, what would you do in my situation? Was targeting you sensible? Should I target anyone else?

[furtiveglance]

Friendly neighbour?

[PenguinPower]

s_s is certainly a choice there.

[Something_Smart]

Interesting development. So yes, I will verify that Klick has a confirmable ability. It's not an alignment-confirmed ability, but it's one I'd expect to be town more often than not, all else being equal.

I'm not sure if I should answer their questions, at least not yet, because it could give something away if people decide that they should claim. I'm not categorically opposed to that happening, depending on how people are feeling about them.

I do have a question for you, Klick-- who did you target on N1?

[Something_Smart]

I also want to know fire's action and result.

[Klick]

I wanted to target mastina, but I misunderstood that I was meant to say how productive I was by the end of D1, not during N1. So I told Datisi that I wanted to target mastina, and was told I didn't have the productivity points for it.

[Something_Smart]

Why didn't you say that way back at 2762?

[Something_Smart]

Also, wait, I'm dumb. Assuming there's only one scum left, it's a roleblocker, and Klick is town.

[Klick]

Why didn't you say that way back at 2762?

It wasn't relevant. It's not that different from me just deciding not to act on N1

[Klick]

Also, wait, I'm dumb. Assuming there's only one scum left, it's a roleblocker, and Klick is town.

I agree with this logic but was hoping you'd present it!