Mini 207 - Roleswap Mafia! Nightfall lynched, but who's won?

[Nightfall]

oops.... wow... I guess three of my last four posts are pointless then...
Sorry about that. That was in fact what I was looking / waiting for.
Sorry about that, my error.

[Sineish]

I just thought of this while adding to the chart, but when looking at the chart (Alone) it's looking a bit like MOS, Gnome, and Mepmuff, could be a possible 3 man team.

This posible team of 3 is looking unlikely to me, mainly because of what happened on night 2. On the above table we seem to start with night 0 and move to day 1? I'm calling these night 1 and day 1 in this post, as per the mod's opening posts and I hope this will not confuse anyone.

If you look at the hypothetical choices, MGIA had the Doc item, mepmuff the Watcher (from MoS on night 1) and MoS had no item. Who, in this situation would it make most sense to protect? Remember, an item cannot be used on someone and passed to the same person (possible endgame scenarios aside). In MGIA's position I would be absolutely sure to protect the person with an item, and not the item-less member of the team. Therefore, MoS would have received the Doc item on Day 2 and not mepmuff.

This doesn't rule out MoS and mepmuff being scum together, but I think the chance for MGIA being part of their team is pretty low.

I'm sure there are more trends to pick out of the data so I'll keep looking.

Sineish-actually PBug was the first person to explain why the claim was wrong, in 49.

I disagree. PBuG mentioned to mepmuff that the nightscene had nothing to do with his investigation. That doesn't sound like the explicit rebuttal of a claim that everyone could immediately see, especially when re-reading the thread some months later. As for not immediately doing so myself, I was so concerned that people might unwittingly pass their items en-mass to confirmed innocents that I posted, even though I had only about 4 minutes to make the post. The first time I had available to make a more detailed post was the very next day when I did was the first to explicitly say that mepmuff's claim was unfounded.

S.

[Thok]

This doesn't rule out MoS and mepmuff being scum together, but I think the chance for MGIA being part of their team is pretty low.

Um, we know that MGIA is scum, and we have almost no evidence of multiple scum parties.

Secondly, once the vig item died day 1 (and no other item looking vigish), why would scum care who got protection? They could just protect randomly (as long as they avoid their kill); they have reason to believe they are the only killing group around.

[Nightfall]

Anyone have anything new yet?

P.S. I agree that without the Vig item scum would have little to worry about in regards to being killed during the night. Unless of course there was some kind name switcher, or reflector item in the town.

[Thok]

Actually, I'm going to

unvote MOS

for a second, while I consider the fact that MOS claimed to target STD night 1. Scum probably wouldn't target the person they killed with the mailman's hat, since they want to know where items were sent. But, MOS could be lying.

[Mastermind of Sin]

On a similar note, the mod HAS pmed me and clarified that it was meant that Thok didn't send any OTHER items, because the mod thought it evident that I had gotten the loudspeaker from Thok. So, it was simply a mixup between the mod and I.

So... if I am taking Aelyn's comments correctly, would that mean that if the wrong results were pm'd to MOS, then MOS should now have recieved the correct results pm? If that is true, MOS, have you recieved an additional pm?

....

[Mastermind of Sin]

Post by post analysis of MoS:

Usually, the mayor has two votes and/or a daykill.

vote: nightfall for stealing my intended random vote on mepmuff Sad

Clarification of possible role ability, random vote.

i will be out of town the next few days.

lol, I'm back finally, but I have nothing to add

I had a mailman's hat, btw.

out of town until tuesday night at the earliest

Out of town posts, plus day two first-day-item claim.

damnit, I'm sorry for not posting. I'll try to catch up. unvote if I had a vote.

vote: thesp

This at a time when feelings were right up against thesp.

mmmm, I love video games

*wanders off*

Filler

ummm, I didn't have an item last night.

Code: Select all

Item          Night 1          Night 2 
------------------------------------------------ 
Cell Phone    Thesp            Commodore Amazing 
GameBoy     Sineish                 _Obelix_ 
Nothing         Nightfall              Nightfall/MoS
Mailman's Hat  MoS             mepmuff 
Next to claim: Thok 

Second-day-item-claim

STD didn't have the police radio night 1, because I used my mailman's hat to watch him, and he passed his item to Thok.

Wrong clarification of item held by another player. Last thing posted before today's jump on Thok.

FoS: MoS

Quite the lurker, aren't you? I admit freely that I haven't been the most prolific of players, but you've posted no content, and just tried to get someone lynched on a mistake by the mod. Admittedly you weren't aware of the mistake, but you could've checked as soon as you realised it may have been, rather than the nice big 6-in-a-row above .

Care to explain yourself?

first of all, I've had to lurk in almost every game I'm in, so don't try to pin that on me, bud. I've made an effort to be more active lately, but I'm also close to failing 3 classes, so I'm a little busy. As for the mistake, how could I know there was a mistake from the mod when I thought Thok was scum? Since using the mailman's hat to watch where people send items is a way to find scum by seeing if they lie about it, I assumed I had caught Thok in a lie. How would I know that the mod made a mistake? And I DID check with the mod as soon as I considered it a real possibility, btw.

Wrong clarification of item held by another player.

what's this supposed to mean? Are you saying that the mod was mistaken when my result showed that STD's item was passed to Thok?

Also, as for yesterday, there is a specific reason why I didn't post a lot, in addition to me being busy.

[Thok]

Also, as for yesterday, there is a specific reason why I didn't post a lot, in addition to me being busy.

Interesting-that supports some of what I've been thinking.

vote Sineish

[Nightfall]

On a similar note, the mod HAS pmed me and clarified that it was meant that Thok didn't send any OTHER items, because the mod thought it evident that I had gotten the loudspeaker from Thok. So, it was simply a mixup between the mod and I.

So... if I am taking Aelyn's comments correctly, would that mean that if the wrong results were pm'd to MOS, then MOS should now have recieved the correct results pm? If that is true, MOS, have you recieved an additional pm?

....

Sorry about that. You had already answered my question, I just hadn't seen it.

[Nightfall]

Nothing new to say, just reminding people this game exists...

[Commodore Amazing]

vote: Sineish

[Changling bob]

Can we have a votecount please mod

Also, how about someone explains why we're now jumping on Sineish for the slower among us?

[Sineish]

Also, how about someone explains why we're now jumping on Sineish for the slower among us?

That includes me please. The way Thok phrased his vote leads me to believe it may be to do with my night 1 item. As for CA's reason, I've no idea.

S.

[Nightfall]

I'm not positive that Thok ment to vote for you there.
Too me it looks like he wanted to vote MOS.
Thok could you confirm your vote and if it is for Sineash,
could you please give us a reason as to why?

[Thok]

I very much meant to vote for Sineish. It seems to me that the GBA is some sort of a distraction item of some sort (post restriction?), which makes it a useful tool for scum. (Indeed, I'm not sure how much CA can post today). MOS's comments just now sort of confirm that for me.

Just as a bizarre theory, Tetris!

[Nightfall]

Okay... I see what you ment now.

[mepmuff]

It seems to me that the GBA is some sort of a distraction item of some sort (post restriction?), which makes it a useful tool for scum.

Can those who actually had the item shed their light on this?

[Sineish]

I can confirm Thok's guess at the GBA's mechanic, but have no idea about his theory.

S.

[Changling bob]

Testing of rampant speculation follows:

Commodore Amazing, it has been pointed out that you aren't posting much today. You have however voted.

If you cannot post other than to vote, please come into the thread and vote for me (as opposed to anyone else), and otherwise say so.

[Commodore Amazing]

I will not answer questions about the Game Boy, but I might tell you a thing or two about Link's Awakening. I love that game. Especially the flying rooster.

Besides just his unvoting for Gnome (which he has already addressed and I'm not sure if I'm sold on), there's also this quote that just doesn't make any sense to me:

Right, so we have six items claimed, plus a possible item which StD may have had. I would say that six items is probably right, as that way a three person mafia could hoard them all for themselves. The question then arises, which of these items would the mafia most likely start with? I am of the opinion that they can't have started with any items as it would be too easy to hoard them, although we shouldn't rule out the possibility completely.

We've been assuming this entire game that it was to the advantage to scum to hold on to all the items. But if it isn't, for some reason, then this whole post of his just doesn't make any sense. I don't understand why he would have posted this (especially the last sentence), knowing what he knew. It's very misleading.

I hope this post is clear enough that someone can understand it.

@Changling bob - I have come into this thread today to do things other than vote.

[mepmuff]

but have no idea about his theory.

Following up on what I understand of the GBA and CA's quote, I don't quite believe Sineish has no idea about Thok's theory.

vote: Sineish

[Sineish]

Thok says 'Tetris' in the thread and calls it a theory. Perhaps I should not have said that I have no idea about it. I just meant that I have no information which might support a theory based on saying 'Tetris', or the name of any other game in the thread.

What's there not to believe?

On a related point, I think that we, the town, are doomed. We have had 4 people who started with items die, none of whom were scum, and the only person who started out without an item who has died was scum. And still, 3 people who started out without items are voting someone who did. Since we're now outnumbered 4 to 3, I don't see a way out.

S.

[Thok]

Sineish, my theory is that it helps people with the GBA if we mention games, like Mario and Luigi Superstar Saga. But I could be wrong.

[Nightfall]

I like Mario Games....
When you say "help" do you mean something along the lines of the more video games we name the stronger some power the item has becomes? It also seems so far that anyone who has had the item has refused to comment on the items mechanics, maybe theres some rule that comes with the item? Actually what if in order for the items holders vote to be counted, enough people have to mention a video game or something? or maybe it would cancel out any other items you might be holding if the games aren't said? This negative effect of the item could fit with what CA is saying about Sin's post, about how it could be a bad item for scum to have?....

[Changling bob]

@Changling bob - I have come into this thread today to do things other than vote.

So you did. My bad. I was just too lazy to check.

Has anyone been in possession of an item that has a negative effect that they are allowed to talk about?