Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2005 10:25 am
On the other hand, if Astro does claim what I think he's about to claim, then we actually might have a way to win this game today safely. Let's see.
Fine, let's go over this again. There are four players alive. Assuming only one is scum (we started with 2 mafia and 1 SK), then a no lynch is unlikely (though not certain) to be safe. If, as is more likely to be the case, we have 1 mafia and 1 SK left, then lynching either of them results in a win for the other. 2 vs 1 going into night wakes to 1 vs 1, which is generally a town loss. So that's the disadvantage over no lynch right there. If Astronaut is telling the truth, then there's no real disadvantage to lynching him today. But if he's lying, then we've killed a scum and screwed the town. The only reason we would want to lynch Astronaut today is if we think he's the only scum left and actually has the one lynch immunity he's claimed.Yosarian2 wrote:But anyway, I don't assume anything at this point. It's quite possible that both you and Astro are scum in different groups, and it's also quite possible that only one of you is scum. I still say that if Astro has one lynch immunity, then lynching him today is better then a no-lynch, because it gives us more information and makes it possible to lynch him tommorow if we need to (if there is a tommorow, of course) and has no real disadvantage over a no-lynch.
Plus, there's the added bonus that if Astro is lying about being immune to a lynch, I expect him to admit it once it becomes clear that we're about to lynch him unless he admits to the lie.
Yeah, that is the only risk. But I expect that if he is lying, and he's about to be lynched, he'll admit he's lying, and we can avoid that and get more information.Fuldu wrote: But if he's lying, then we've killed a scum and screwed the town..
First of all: As mentioned, you'd never get the chance to use the information you get from a no lynch/attempting to lynch me. Second, I need to show you that I'm not scum, since I need you to trust me if this is to work. Phoebus as SK is consistent with what I've been thinking for a long time. If he should turn out to be the last mafia, Seol and him did a marvelous effort yesterday. If we leave him out, the question is who's the final mafia, Yosarian2 or me. I suggest that you, Fuldu, read through the thread once again, taking notice of what the two of us have said about the two dead mafia, godfather Seol in particular. I think there's something in the speculations about WindSlicer backing out when he saw that he could be losing the game for his team are, but what really stands out is the relation between Seol and Yos yesterday. Seol was getting a lot of heat, and Yos protected him through it all. First discreetely, then more and more openly. The two of them even managed to put an FOS on eachother to show us that they couldn't be partners. Talitha was smart enough to actually put a vote on Seol, but SK Phoebus saw through her. If we for a second consider that I could be the last mafia, that would mean that 2 out of 4 votes on godfather Seol yesterday came from his minions. That would make us the stupidest mafia ever.Fuldu wrote:Well, I don't believe you, but letting me in on your plan may or may not change that. Right now I'm inclined to believe that Phoebus is the SK and you're the remaining goon, but a no lynch would provide me with better information.
I think you've missed every single thing I've been trying to tell you.Fuldu wrote:I think you've missed the point of the no lynch, Astronaut.
Please tell me why you're so sure the mafia and the SK will target eachother? If they target us both, they'll tie, if one of them targets one of us, the other will win.Fuldu wrote:In that event, Yosarian and Phoebus have to target one another, since doing so is their only hope of winning.
So it's more likely that mafia #2 and #3 put the 2nd and 3rd vote on their own godfather yesterday? That's quite possibly the stupidest theory I've ever heard of.Fuldu wrote: That is quite possibly the stupidest role I've ever heard of