Mini 524: Short and Sweet Mafia 2 - Game Over


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Post Post #325 (ISO) » Fri Jan 11, 2008 10:45 am

Post by Bookitty »

So, in your opinion, Chaotic_Diablo, who are the three scum who were on your wagon?

Do you feel that your reasons for killing Ether were sufficient?

When Antithesis was killed, did you consider explaining your role at that time?

Are you aware of what a moon spider is, in urban slang?
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Post Post #326 (ISO) » Fri Jan 11, 2008 10:51 am

Post by Samruc »

In my face... I have to say I like the flavor of that claim.

One minor complaint would be that night = town, day = scum is flavorwise a little weird, but when you look at the kills, it makes sense that Ether would be vigged by a pro-town and vice versa.

Also: http://www.geocities.com/mischievous_ac ... onspiders/
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Post Post #327 (ISO) » Fri Jan 11, 2008 10:57 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

All right, fair enough. If he's lying about having made that kill, then you'll probably get either counterclaimed or vigged. It's also possible he really made the kill but is some kind of SK, but in that case we don't want to lynch him today anyway, because lynching a SK in lynch or lose means we lose.

I suppose that also means I was wrong about some of my assumptions I made when making those lists, but I'm ok with that. I'm actually starting to wonder if I was wrong about there being 3 mafia members; I guess there might have been 2 mafia members but they had a extra daykill and perhaps some other ability to compensate for that, or something like that. But I'm still going to run with the assumption about there being 3 mafia members, because if there are then we're in lynch or lose.

So, let me start over, one more time.

Player list:

Elmo
Setael rp Kate
Porochaz
Bookitty rp Jester
farside22
Samruc
Yosarian2 rp TheStranger
chaotic_diablo

This time, I can use a lot less assumptions; I just don't need as many.

1. Assume there are 3 mafia members
2. Assume neither Bookitty or Chaotic Diablo is mafia
3. Assume that either both (sumaric and Porochez) claimed masons are scum, or neither one is.

So, taking off those that I now think are not mafia:

Elmo
Setael rp Kate
Porochaz
farside22
Samruc

So, if the masons are telling the truth, then the scum group now MUST be (from my point of view):

Elmo
Setael
Farside

If they are lying, then the scum group is:
Porochez
Samruc
+ one other (either Elmo, Setael, or Farside)

At this moment, if the masons are lying, I think their most likely scum partner is Setael; Elmo is possible, and Farside seems quite unlikely.

Honestly, at this moment, I don't really think they are lying; I think the scum group is Elmo, Setael, and Farside. But, just in case I'm wrong about that, I'd rather lynch Setael then one of the others.

vote:Setael
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Post Post #328 (ISO) » Fri Jan 11, 2008 10:57 am

Post by Samruc »

Btw, sorry for spamming, but I just have to point out that I did
not
know what Bookitty referred to when I wrote "In my face... I have to say I like the flavor of that claim."

Oh, the dangers ant pitfalls of using your second language...
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Post Post #329 (ISO) » Fri Jan 11, 2008 11:58 am

Post by farside22 »

Samruc wrote:Btw, sorry for spamming, but I just have to point out that I did
not
know what Bookitty referred to when I wrote "In my face... I have to say I like the flavor of that claim."

Oh, the dangers ant pitfalls of using your second language...
I didn't see anything about Bookitty saying in your face. I did however state the following:
Now I'm glad I waited to see if CD claimed. I know the game is at a deadline, but pushing for a quick lynch is plain scummie. I now am certain that you and Porochaz lied and just wanted to save your happy butts from a lynch.
I see if anyone disputes CD's claim, but I highly doubt anyone will.
You just joking comment was so tiny I just saw it after you made this comment to see if I was crazy. I still think you were trying to push the lynch on CD a little hard there.
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Post Post #330 (ISO) » Fri Jan 11, 2008 12:26 pm

Post by Porochaz »

I don't trust that claim but I don't feel its worth risking it currently. Whilst I'm still happiest with a farside lynch, I will
vote: Setael
I said I would be happy with a Setael lynch earlier on and I still am especially with us past deadline
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Post Post #331 (ISO) » Fri Jan 11, 2008 12:45 pm

Post by chaotic_diablo »

Bookitty wrote:So, in your opinion, Chaotic_Diablo, who are the three scum who were on your wagon?
The ones on the wagon was Elmo, Yos, samruc, and you. If we were to consider a three member mafia group, then a quick lynch would end the game. In any case, samruc was the person who placed me at -1. In the time between the -1 vote and the -1 unvote, both porochaz and setael posted without hammering. This would mean that Elmo, Yos, and Bookitty would be the three scum. In my opinion, that's a strange combination of scum.

I wouldn't be happy with a setael lynch at the moment.
Do you feel that your reasons for killing Ether were sufficient?
Enough for a night one vig. Do you think it was sufficient?
When Antithesis was killed, did you consider explaining your role at that time?
No, I didn't.
Are you aware of what a moon spider is, in urban slang?
Nope.
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Post Post #332 (ISO) » Fri Jan 11, 2008 1:11 pm

Post by Elmo »

Uh. That's one whacky claim, with respect to flavour. "a moon spider or something like that"? Nonetheless,
unvote
. Surely if he's lying, then the real vig will counterclaim? Right? There is nothing to be gained from a vig kill beyond tonight, anyway.

The lack of a counter-claim kinda confirms c_d. Can I take it as read that no-one else is counter-claiming?

So. If there was a
separate
role that killed Antithesis, then we should be able to confirm two people. Unless there's this anti-town role that just happens to have the same killing method, of course. That's kind of convenient.

Um. Now what?

Trying to work out what Samruc's speedy unvote means. Hrm.
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Post Post #333 (ISO) » Fri Jan 11, 2008 2:03 pm

Post by Bookitty »

I'm not agreeing with a Setael lynch right now either. I don't see a scumbuddy of the claimed masons attacking them and calling out connections between them, and basically voting them throughout the game. While Setael might be a scumbuddy of CD, she's not a scumbuddy of Samruc. I'd stake a lot on that.

It's worth noting that if Chaotic Diablo is telling the truth (I'm not at all certain of this, and I have another theory that I want to float, as well) then we have a serial killer as well as a pro-town vig. So any action we take needs to take this possibility into account.

These statements by CD seem a little off to me. (Samruc pointed out one, but I'm going to do so in another light.)
chaotic_diablo wrote:I know for a fact that I'm town and not affiliated with anyone.
chaotic_diablo wrote:I'm only able to kill the night after a day kill has occured. It's something about the cycle of the Sun and Moon and how one comes after the other and blah blah blah. I also have another condition in which I can kill during the night, but I'm going to keep it to myself.
If scum kills during the day, and they killed Antithesis, and then the vig kills at night right after, then why was CD's motive this?
chaotic_diablo wrote:I killed Ether solely because I wanted to check the wagon on skitzer and Ether rushed it.
If Chaotic Diablo is the vig, he knew we had a serial killer (though he's failed to comment that, ever, and I think that not doing so is an odd omission, given what he apparently knew), he knew that that serial killer could kill during the day, and yet he didn't see fit to warn anyone? He wasn't looking to kill the serial killer? He went after Ether "to check the wagon on Skitzer" right after we had a day kill that he knew was a possibility? Does this seem a little strange to anyone else, paired with his insistence that he is not affiliated with anyone? Wouldn't a pro-town vig be trying to hit the serial killer to protect the town?

If CD is a serial killer, then it makes more sense. He wouldn't admit to killing Antithesis, because that's clearly an anti-town move. He would have a motive for killing Ether because she was interrogating him and because of this specifically:
Ether wrote:I should probably clarify at some point why I don't like C_D. He seems so detached. A high percentage of each of his posts feels like generic strategy, setup speculation--not necessarily the unoptimal kind, but still filler. Of the portion that addresses other players, so much of it is noncommittal or discusses their strategic/speculational flaws (as opposed to their stances on other people). There are exceptions here, but not many. I don't know where his Elmo suspicion came from and he never bothers to explain it beyond that daykill statement. (Voting Elmo over Porochaz because of Skitzer's vote, I can sort of see the explanation for, though it wouldn't have been my first conclusion (and I've already disproved it in this post).)
Additionally these statements seem deliberately designed to mislead the town, given what CD is currently claiming:
chaotic_diablo wrote:If the daykill is one-shot, then it would mean a one-shot SK will have a bizarre win condition. As such, I do not believe a one-shot SK is possible. The only options left are that a one-shot vig exists or a mafia member with a one-shot daykill ability exists.
Anything other than a one-shot, I'm not as certain on anything.
chaotic diablo wrote:I'm confused about Elmo's stance on the kill. He proposed the first kill to be SK due to timing. Since we assume the recent night kill was by the same person, it's strange to think the killer is now a vig.
Why did you say these things?, chaotic_diablo, if you are pro-town? It's clearly misleading, is it not? It undercuts your claimed role quite badly.

Samruc, why did you ask Porochaz to post those three words? Am I missing something?

Yosarian, why do you think Setael makes a decent partner for the possible scum-masons?

I'm looking at a couple of other things, but I'm sure this post is long enough. I expect to have more to say in a little while when I've finished my analysis.
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Post Post #334 (ISO) » Fri Jan 11, 2008 2:31 pm

Post by Yosarian2 »

Elmo wrote:Uh. That's one whacky claim, with respect to flavour. "a moon spider or something like that"? Nonetheless,
unvote
. Surely if he's lying, then the real vig will counterclaim? Right? There is nothing to be gained from a vig kill beyond tonight, anyway.
One would think that the real vig would counterclaim, unless there isn't a vig and is a SK instead (a SK probaly wouldn't counterclaim) or unless the real vig is planning to kill Elmo tonight instead of claiming. Or unless the day-kill was a vig, and that night-kill he claimed was some kind of extra kill the mafia had. I really have no idea; the whole thing with one guy doing a daykill and that allowing someone else to do a nightkill the next night just seems odd; I have trouble imagining that both Chaotic Diablo and the guy who did the daykill are both pro-town, that wouldn't make a whole lot of sense I don't think. Which would mean that either there's a wierd SK-ish guy of some kind, or else one of the two kills was controlled by the mafia. I think. It's wierd.

Bookitty: Perhaps; it's possible Setael decided to distance herself from both scum partners in december, but...I don't know. No one really fits as a scum partner of the masons, I don't think. Why, who would you see as a likely scum partner to the masons?
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Post Post #335 (ISO) » Fri Jan 11, 2008 2:57 pm

Post by Porochaz »

Bookie, It was suggested by Samruc as I was accused of not posting enough to prove I was mason... I don't really know how it did anything or what I could have done to prove myself to be a mason beyond what has already been said...
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Post Post #336 (ISO) » Fri Jan 11, 2008 3:20 pm

Post by Bookitty »

Assuming the mason claim is true, and we have a serial killer in Chaotic_Diablo, something I'm pretty convinced of, there are these possible suspects from my perspective:

Elmo
Setael
Farside
Yosarian

Farside has defended and supported Elmo all through this game, from start to finish, and has attacked Samruc pretty consistently. (A reread in isolation will bear this out, there's a LOT, and I don't think it's helpful to post it all. Feel free to double check me though.) So I will say that I can see a Farside-Elmo scumteam pretty easily.

If I look at it from that perspective, this looks a lot worse:
Elmo wrote: I think you're doing okay - I don't want to "rub salt in the wound" at all. I was just making sure everyone got looked at - it's dangerous to let anyone have a free ride to the endgame without any kind of scrutiny.
I think that might just be scum reassuring less experienced scum. Elmo casts suspicion on Farside a few times, but never enough to vote her, oddly enough. I think he was going pretty gently because he was paired with a newbie scumpartner, but that's just my opinion.

Setael can't really be scum with either of these in my opinion, given that they both attacked her very strongly. I can MAYBE see Setael with Elmo, given his weird case that wasn't a case on her, it might have been distancing. Elmo's behaviour toward Yosarian rules out their being scumbuddies pretty comprehensively, though. Additionally, Elmo's unvote on Yosarian right after mine looks pretty suspicious if I look at it with these assumptions. A couple of possibilities... Elmo was looking for the easy lynch, and when Yosarian responded as he did and I moved off his wagon, Elmo decided to follow suit and try to join a wagon that might gain support; Yosarian was his scumbuddy and he decided he'd distanced enough. I'm leaning toward the first interpretation, because Yosarian looks town to me (as witnessed by the fact I don't want to vote him).

Yosarian and Setael... Elmo made this argument, but there's no linkage. No non-linkage either, but since both of them seem pretty town to me, I'm thinking they probably are not scum.

So, if I assume for the sake of argument that there is a serial killer counterpart to CD, something I really don't believe, but hypothetically:

If the masons are truthful (I'm leaning this way at the moment) and Elmo and Farside are scumbuddies (and I'm leaning that way a LOT) AND CD is telling the truth about there being a serial killer counterpart, then that person has to be among Setael and Yosarian. So if lynching the serial killer loses the game for town, we can't lynch them. (I still don't quite follow this logic, so if someone could explain that to me, I'd be grateful.)

I'm going to make a bold assumption and say that maybe we only have two scum, and a serial killer. I've outlined why I don't really believe Chaotic Diablo is pro-town. I guess we can't lynch him, but I do think he's not what he says he is. (PLEASE explain to me why we can't lynch him.)

If the two masons are scumbuddies, then they are the scum. If they aren't, then it's Elmo and Farside, to my way of thinking. I don't see another plausible scenario here.

The person I'm most certain is scum at the moment, based on the above linkages and logic, is Elmo. So I'm going to

unvote; vote Elmo


And ask that if you see flaws in my logic or reasoning, PLEASE point them out. Thanks.
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Post Post #337 (ISO) » Fri Jan 11, 2008 3:34 pm

Post by chaotic_diablo »

Bookitty wrote:If Chaotic Diablo is the vig, he knew we had a serial killer (though he's failed to comment that, ever, and I think that not doing so is an odd omission, given what he apparently knew), he knew that that serial killer could kill during the day, and yet he didn't see fit to warn anyone?
I don't remember anything in my role that says a SK was confirmed. However, it does say a daykill is possible.
He wasn't looking to kill the serial killer? He went after Ether "to check the wagon on Skitzer" right after we had a day kill that he knew was a possibility? Does this seem a little strange to anyone else, paired with his insistence that he is not affiliated with anyone? Wouldn't a pro-town vig be trying to hit the serial killer to protect the town?
I was looking to kill the most likely scum, not the SK. Even if we killed the SK now, scum can still win in the same amount of time. A vig isn't an anti-SK.
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Post Post #338 (ISO) » Fri Jan 11, 2008 4:06 pm

Post by farside22 »

I agree with BooKitty's logic on why it is possible that there are only 2 scum's and not 3. Base this on 2 claimed masons (I use this term loosely), 1 claim vig (who is claiming he did not do the day kill. If this is true that means there is a second vig or serial killer with a day kill ability).
That leaves
Yos2
BooKitty
Elmo
Satael
Personally I think the claimed mason's are lying their butts off. People paired them up and they are hoping the claim will save them from being lynched today. I've been on Samruc and claimed many issues I had. For a player that is supposed to be pro-town he has done nothing to help the town, but save his buddy and himself. He just "jokingly" said that claiming was over rated when lynching CD. He was quick to unvote after claim. I think you guys are nuts for believe these two and just voting out any of the rest because of the claim. Bah I could claim tooth fairy and no one would know if I was telling the truth.
Unvote: Vote: Samruc
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Post Post #339 (ISO) » Fri Jan 11, 2008 4:29 pm

Post by Porochaz »

Lies, its probably not the best coming from me, however if you have 2 claimed masons, it might be an idea to look in other directions as well... you lynch one of us and we turn up town, the mafia is just going to lynch the other of us straight away. 2 Easy kills and the mafia will nearly if not certainly win. I believe, trying to look at it from an outside perspective, we have a better chance of sucess as town if you lynch somene else (and the vig can choose to shoot one of us if he can/wants to make sure, if he does or does not do that though he has to keep that to himself).

That is the way I can see town gaining most information any other theories?

Also a one shot day kill SK/2nd vig sounds absolutely absurd to me. I think your either not thinking or your trying to find the easiest way to a win.
unvote vote farside
Also the tooth fairy wears pink and is the witches sworn enemy... fairy =/= witch
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Post Post #340 (ISO) » Fri Jan 11, 2008 4:41 pm

Post by Elmo »

Hm. Two scum and a SK kind of works. Hmm. I haven't the foggiest as to why you buy the mason claim, personally. We most definitely have two killing groups, though, one of which is not a vig.

I'm kind of curious. All through the game, since post 101 (for example), you've said the daykill was an SK or a vig. How'd you know that it's not a mafia ability?
Bookitty wrote:I think that might just be scum reassuring less experienced scum.
Or, like, I want to take it a bit easy with her because a) I don't actually think she's scum and b) she's a bit new, yeah. *shrug* Either way round works, for me.
Bookitty wrote:Elmo casts suspicion on Farside a few times, but never enough to vote her, oddly enough.
I think she's town. *shrug* There's not many different ways I can say it. I never found her suspicious enough to vote.

Yos, why am I town now, anyway?

Hm. c_d, can you kill tonight? Even if you're an SK, we both stand to lose by the dawn of day 3 if we don't lynch or kill scum.

I don't particularly disagree, Bookitty, except I think the masons are scum. I'd say, if you want to lynch one of me and Farside, you should probably go for the person you think is scummier; until, like, a post ago, I thought that was Farside. I don't think she's scum, either, but I'm always going to be more certain about myself. (I think the point Yos makes is correct; I can now only really be scum with Farside. So there's little point lynching me instead of lynching her. *shrug*)

I would still be ecstatic about lynching one of the masons; I don't believe anyone apart from Farside is seriously considering it, for whatever reason. I really have no idea what's going on, but I'll just go with my scummy vibe and
vote
:
Setael
. For my money, we're approaching "oh shit" territory with respect to the deadline.
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Post Post #341 (ISO) » Fri Jan 11, 2008 4:54 pm

Post by Porochaz »

Elmo wrote: Hm. c_d, can you kill tonight? Even if you're an SK, we both stand to lose by the dawn of day 3 if we don't lynch or kill scum.
If you are an SK then its true however I wouldnt be willing to divulge that information it'll make scums job a lot easier...
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Post Post #342 (ISO) » Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:01 pm

Post by chaotic_diablo »

Elmo wrote:Hm. c_d, can you kill tonight? Even if you're an SK, we both stand to lose by the dawn of day 3 if we don't lynch or kill scum.
I can't kill tonight unless a daykill occurs.
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Post Post #343 (ISO) » Sat Jan 12, 2008 3:23 am

Post by Bookitty »

Okay, first things first.
Ibby, first post wrote:No longer Practicing


* Antithesis, Neophyte, killed by a nasty little scratch Day 1 (Weaponsmith)
* skitzer, Hedgewitch, ritually lynched Day 1
* The Fonz, Hedgewitch, killed by massive blood loss Night 1
* Ether, Hedgewitch, killed by a nasty little scratch Day 2
The Fonz was killed by Mafia. We can be pretty sure of this, I think. Antithesis and Ether were killed by the exact same method. So I'm going to rule out that the Mafia not only have multiple kills per day, but multiple kill methods. That's game-breaking design, if it's true, so I'm just going to rule it out. That's not what's happening.

Samruc and Porochaz claimed "twins" as masons. This actually would support Chaotic Diablo's contention that he's part of a light twin/dark twin killing duo, because the flavour supports duality. But it also supports the idea that Chaotic Diablo might be an SK, trying to kill town during the day, and scum during the night, and being allowed to kill as long as he continues this alternating pattern. He would not be affiliated with anyone else as an SK (an independent, and not affiliated with scum, but not pro-town either), which is an odd phrasing Chaotic Diablo used himself. If this theory is true, he won't be able to kill tonight. He's already said he can't, so that somewhat supports this (admittedly farfetched, but no more farfetched than his claim) theory. (And in answer to Chaotic Diablo's question, no, I don't think you had good enough reason to kill Ether. Her attacking you and supporting a wagon on Skitzer wasn't good enough.)

Farside and Elmo are clearly linked. Farside tends to take game attacks personally, but she never did do that with Elmo, so there's a pretty big inconsistency there. She also accuses me of following Elmo around (the opposite has been true, a few times, but the one time I agreed with Elmo's logic was regarding Yosarian. One reason is that Yosarian has a meta of hating lurkers and feeling they should be lynched, and yet he himself lurked through a large part of this game, and I felt that was an inconsistency that was pretty telling) but that seemed fairly ironic given that Farside had been "me-tooing" him throughout the game from start to finish.

So, either way, apparently we can't lynch Chaotic Diablo. And I don't think there'll be a nightkill by SK/Vig tonight, so I guess that's okay.

However, personally I don't see a difference between lynching Farside and Elmo. The argument for a link between Setael and Elmo is that he trumped up a case against her based on a mistake about who replaced who, which may be a scumcase intended to be easily demolished. I don't personally buy that. The argument for a link between Yosarian and Elmo is weaker still, considering that he was actively pushing for Yosarian's lynch. I guess I could more easily see Yosarian as scum than Setael, objectively, but there's no good link that I can make for Yosarian as a scumbuddy for ANYONE. And I've tried. Yosarian as SK sort of works, but it depends on my believing Chaotic Diablo, who has not sufficiently explained his statements regarding the SK/Vig controversy in the first place, who demanded flavour for the mason roleclaim while not providing any for his own until pressed (and did a pretty lackadaisical job of it... I Googled "moon spider" when he posted it as his rolename, and I'm a little surprised that someone who got such an odd rolename wouldn't have done the same)... Chaotic Diablo may be telling a part of the truth, but I simply don't believe he's telling the whole truth.

So my own feeling is that Setael and Yosarian are likely town. Setael more so than Yosarian, but I'm pretty convinced of that. I'm left with the idea that if we lynch one of the masons and he (she?) is scum, then we've caught both scum. I'm okay with this. If we lynch one of Farside/Elmo, I think we've also caught both scum. I'm also okay with this. I have a mild feeling that the masons are telling the truth, but it's not more than a 51/49 percent proposition, and more based on flavour than on anything else. One point against this is Porochaz's rather sloppy roleclaim post, which, if he'd worked on it and then decided to post something else, would have been neater and more convincing, in my view. I'm sure Chaotic Diablo is not aligned with them, and his role flavour seems to mimick theirs, so that's the point in their favour.

People I'm willing to lynch:
  • Farside
    Elmo
    Porochaz
    Samruc
People I want to lynch but I'm not allowed to:
  • Chaotic Diablo
People I won't lynch and believe to be town:
  • Setael
    Yosarian
As always, if you see flaws or mistakes in my reasoning, PLEASE point them out as soon as possible.
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Post Post #344 (ISO) » Sat Jan 12, 2008 4:34 am

Post by Porochaz »

You asked me to post what I had written, so I did, I didn't go through when I did post it to make it neater otherwise I wouldnt of answered your question... and havent you noticed that most of my posts are well... "sloppy"...

Also I am having a major problem with this whole vig/SK thing... having a one shot day-SK and a vig seems weird and nonsensical... even if its not "one shot" why hasn't that person killed yet? I can see it being the other way round, a one shot day-vig and a SK, however.

My theory: There is no vig. C_D is the SK. If I were a vig and I was looking at skitzers wagon I would have gone for someone a lot more suspicous at the time (cant find the post to help me with it but I know that I was pro skitzers lynch and was suspicous) like me rather than Ether. He also had the daykill as well...
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Post Post #345 (ISO) » Sat Jan 12, 2008 5:47 am

Post by Bookitty »

Okay. A reread confirms that Porochaz is accurate in saying he pretty much always posts like that. Additionally the flavour seems pretty believable. Contrast it with CD's claim, and I guess that's partly why I believe it is slightly more likely to be true than not.

Anyone else, please pick apart my logic and point out why I'm dead wrong about my theory so far? I'd like especially to have the reasoning addressed about why CD can't be the serial killer (and my wild theory about that) and why his claim is being considered more seriously than the mason claim, if it is.

Thanks!
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Post Post #346 (ISO) » Sat Jan 12, 2008 5:50 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

Elmo wrote: Yos, why am I town now, anyway?
Odds are, you're probably not town, Elmo; so many people are cleared that almost everyone else has to be scum. If you notice every time I've listed the probable scumgroups, you were a member of the one I considered most probable.

Bookitty: To answer your question about why lynching the SK loses the game for the town; if there are 3 mafia members and a SK left, then if we lynch the SK, tonight the mafia kills a townie, and wins (as there would then be 3 mafia members and 3 pro-town people left). In fact, that would actally be WORSE for the town then lynching a townie would in that situation, since if we mislynch and lynch a townie there's still a chance the SK kills a mafia member tonight and then we can stay in the game. Ideally, though, we want to lynch a mafia member.

Now, if there are 2 mafia members and a SK, then lynching the SK wouldn't be a bad thing.

And of course we don't even know for sure that there is a SK. I suppose it's possible that the mafia was given an extra one-shot daykill that they had to use during day 1, or something like that.

I do tend to agree with Bookitty about a likely link between Farside and Elmo; I wouldn't be opposed to lynching one of them today.
unvote:Setael
vote:Elmo
. I think that despite the numbers, we're actually in pretty good shape here, we've got a good chance of figuring out the entire scum group I think, and we really don't want to waste any more time here; we only have a few more weeks to play out the entire rest of the game now, right?
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #347 (ISO) » Sat Jan 12, 2008 5:55 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

Bookitty wrote: Anyone else, please pick apart my logic and point out why I'm dead wrong about my theory so far? I'd like especially to have the reasoning addressed about why CD can't be the serial killer (and my wild theory about that) and why his claim is being considered more seriously than the mason claim, if it is.
Oh, I already said that; CD could very easily be the SK. But I think it's very unlikely he's lying about having made the kill, that would be a really risky move for a couple of reasons, and if he did make that kill then we probably don't want to lynch him today no matter if he's the vig or if he's the SK.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #348 (ISO) » Sat Jan 12, 2008 6:04 am

Post by Bookitty »

Yosarian wrote:At this moment, if the masons are lying, I think their most likely scum partner is Setael; Elmo is possible, and Farside seems quite unlikely.
Yosarian wrote:Bookitty: Perhaps; it's possible Setael decided to distance herself from both scum partners in december, but...I don't know. No one really fits as a scum partner of the masons, I don't think. Why, who would you see as a likely scum partner to the masons?
Yosarian, can you explain why you thought Setael was their most likely scum partner originally?

Additionally, do you think Farside is an equally good lynch to Elmo? Why or why not?
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Post Post #349 (ISO) » Sat Jan 12, 2008 6:18 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

Bookitty wrote:
Yosarian wrote:At this moment, if the masons are lying, I think their most likely scum partner is Setael; Elmo is possible, and Farside seems quite unlikely.
Yosarian wrote:Bookitty: Perhaps; it's possible Setael decided to distance herself from both scum partners in december, but...I don't know. No one really fits as a scum partner of the masons, I don't think. Why, who would you see as a likely scum partner to the masons?
Yosarian, can you explain why you thought Setael was their most likely scum partner originally?
Process of elimination. I don't think Farside could be, because his fights with Porchez didn't feel staged to me, and I didn't think Elmo was likely to be either, because he was pushing pretty hard for one of them to be lynched both before and after they claimed mason. Esepcally Elmo's attacks on Samruc , based on the logical flaws behind Sumruc's bandwagon vote of me, seemed very logical and a very strong argument, and in fact I think it was partly the strength of that argument that Sumruc was forced to claim mason. I'm really not seeing Elmo as a likely scumbuddy to the masons at this point.

Of course, you are right that Setael had also attacked both of them as well, in sequence, attacking Sumrac for much of the game and then moving over to attack Porchez. (shrug) If she's scum with them, she's distanced herself quite hard from both of them.

In fact, I don't really think any of the three of them is likely to be scum with the masons at this point, which makes me feel better about the masons themselves.
Additionally, do you think Farside is an equally good lynch to Elmo? Why or why not?
Yup. I'm really starting to think the masons are not part of any 3 person scum group, unless their third memeber is absoltuly obsessed with distancing, so if there is a 3 person scum group, I think it has to include both Farside and Elmo. If there's a 2 person mafia group, it's probably either Farside and Elmo or the two masons together.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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