Bad Idea Mafia III: Still Bad, Less Broken [GAME OVER]

[esuriospiritus]

yeah that was me, IIRC

[PokerFace]

Doesn't matter which scum did the act in a game that lacks trackers. You were scum and defender was dead after posting that. So it adds up regardless which of you pulls the trigger. The motive is still there. And your side has an opportunity and you at least had a say in the defender kill since its a group action

At any rate back to the full plan. I wanted to find all the scum, figure out what they could do and then start shooting. If I shot a scum too soon I figured I would die and no one would be scum hunting. So I did the following

I already explained in the dead thread that paradox made a cop tell. Toog (A player I already said I was scum for reasons I gave day 2) claimed the same hypocoping as paradox. This told me toog was either signaling to his buddies that I was cop or that paradox was cop. I figured a player like yourself would notice paradox's tell and also see toogs signal. And probably see toogs redunant pointing of:

I would like to point out that PrivateI had 3 posts and was Cop,

so the other Cop could also be hiding in the lurkers to avoid aggression as well

.

so I took advantage of my current play and made this post.

Zor and TBone are town/GF.

This is just a convenient consolidation of info from PrivateI

Yes this is the only reason zoraster should live given how often zor has not posted. I was gonna go gun ho on zor today since lurking would be good way for scum to live in this. Who is current biggest lurker right now?

@echo,

what do you think of worst's previous hypo cop choices?

Innocent on the penguin, you should see a pattern...

The pattern is all my checks were on skittles current or former. And I said day two, a skittle was probably associated with the kill of Tripod. So I gave an obv fake hypo on an obv goon in you. This would out me as not a cop and keep me alive if you misread toog's signal and killed me instead of paradox. This post also had a further move that didn't go according to plan. Echo killed Worst and worst said they checked defender who just died. Now why would anyone fake hypo cop a dead player? Worst would do it if they were trying to look like a real cop that wanted to give real results. So I asked echo what echo thought of worsts checking. I thought echo could be a god father that shot worst trying to kill a cop

I basically had you, toog, echo, and esuriospiritus in my mind as scum. esuriospiritus because esuriospiritus suggested the hypocoping and toog kinda just took advantage of it to make a signal. And because private I and defender were dead. Scum were clearly cop hunting so esuriospiritus being scum trying to take advantage of hypo coping made sense.

I didn't know that goons could shoot. I thought it might be possible based on toog's signal but also thought echo might kill another possible cop when echo was off cooldown. So i tested the waters at you and echo. But then you shot Paradox during the day, which I didn't think would happen but it was something I was going to act on. If I had gotten the chance to post before petapan's kill of DS I would have shot penguin, and said "yo everyone goons can shoot!". You would have been revealed goon on death and that would have basically encouraged the rest of the town to shoot in the pool of penguin, toog, echo, and esuriospiritus.

I didn't net the GF. Petapan did that so I ok with plan not going perfect. It would have been nice for me to shoot you and quit being subtle. I was subtle in the dead thread about my play too and who I would have shot but meh that was probably unneeded there.

[PokerFace]

I am also ok with not thinking goons could shoot for so long. And what I now see as bad grammar as that last post should have read I thought scum would kill paradox, not necessarily penguin. I used the word you and that could be gramatically seen to point at one person and not a group. Should have said you guys or usted

i mean I said it from the start. playing optimally probably meant actually playing mafia.

that's not what most of us signed up for, so here we are

I think I might be the only one that signed up to play this as mafia. Why did I do that you ask? Well I already got my be scum fix and kill scum fix in previous bad idea games.

I was retired so I wanted to shake the rust off and find scum. And since I designed some gambits that found 2 of 4 scum (I will explain these later), I think I shook the rust off pretty well

Also I wanted to see if there is a way to brake Shea's new setup. I am a Software QA guy in real life. Its my real life job to break the system. Its my job to break the program. I have broken many mafia setups. I wanted to see if I could break another. Now that we know the setup, I believe I owe it to Shea to try to break this thing.

Step one, let's pretend that this game was run as an open. Let's pretend everyone knew what mafia could do day 1. And let's assume no one goes kill crazy (Big assumption, but let's assume it). Is Town ideal play to :
A: Have scumiest and second scumiest be involved in the killing with 1 as shooter and other as target each day (neither of those 2 should be someone that already shot)
B. Have scumiest with low/no shot delay kill the scumiest with a higher shot delay each day
C. Have the same person do the kill each day

Think you can run some numbers with me now, Micc? Or am I doing all the work with this since I know the setup now

These are also reasons why I was in no hurry to schoot

[PokerFace]

Doesn't matter which scum did the act in a game that lacks trackers. You were scum and defender was dead after posting that. So it adds up regardless which of

you

scum pulls the trigger. The motive is still there. And your side has an opportunity and

you

penguin at least had a say in the defender kill since its a group action

more "you" use failure on my part there too but meh my grammar sucks and always has so why change who you are?

[PokerFace]

Also I am still working on maths of ideal town play. Will post that soon in case this ever is good to run as an open in the future

[PokerFace]

my plan was also not really needed as scum kinda worked themselves into a poe situation because toog, esuriospiritus, and DS had not shot or been cop checked and petapan was clearly shooting in that particular pool. I think if brass herald had not been modkilled or Micc had shot, town would have won because of petapan's play

so meh I ok with it it. I think i still came out of retirement well enough in a funny shooty shooty game

Also my specialty is not scum hunting its setup breaking. I must do my maths...

[PenguinPower]

Doesn't matter which scum did the act in a game that lacks trackers. You were scum and defender was dead after posting that. So it adds up regardless which of you pulls the trigger. The motive is still there. And your side has an opportunity and you at least had a say in the defender kill since its a group action

Yeah - but the shot was done not for the motivation to which you are attributing to it. This is more of a chance thing than an "I gotcha" thing.

I actually said absolutely nothing regarding that kill as you can see in the scum PT.

[esuriospiritus]

petapan proposed the hypocop, I just took it and ran with it cuz it seemed towny at first glance (and then only later did I realize the scum benefit to it, lol. My iso 3 or whatever came from my townie heart)

[PokerFace]

You didn't stop the kill did you, penguin?

Nightkill: D3fender

as always, feel free to change

You allowed it all the same. And allowing it is enough proof that you were fine with it and agreed to it. And why did you agree to it I wonder...

petapan proposed the hypocop, I just took it and ran with it cuz it seemed towny at first glance (and then only later did I realize the scum benefit to it, lol. My iso 3 or whatever came from my townie heart)

And what does scum do in the game of mafia? They go along with town plans to look town. So yay I thought you were scum for that too.

Really wish I could have multishot but then I would have killed echo too, and this game would be broken so probably good thing I couldn't do that

[PenguinPower]

?

That's a...leap of an interpretation if you read the PT or anything I did this game...but...ok....you caught me. Good job.

[PokerFace]

Many people thought micc was behind the same player should shoot play but toog started that. And yet micc got credit for it

I sure thought you were behind that play. but you pushed it more than peta when I asked about it so definitely felt like you started it or at least went the furtherest with that hypo play

Falling into a good strategy often works better than making one day one. Chance is a lot of things. My name is pokerface.

Should be noted that I am by no means criticizing the scum's play. You are scum and you shot cops. How was that move wrong for scum? It never is. And I kinda encouraged you to do it by outing myself as not cop so you might kill paradox instead of me. I assumed echo would get paradox or you would do the kill at night but meh. I had all the scum mostly figured out so I did not care if I got a cop killed as town at that point.

[PokerFace]

Many people thought micc was behind the same player should shoot play but toog started that. And yet micc got credit for it

I sure thought

you were

esuriospiritus was behind that play. but

you

esuriospiritus pushed it more than peta when I asked about it so definitely felt like

you

esuriospiritus started it or at least went the furtherest with that hypo play

Falling into a good strategy often works better than making one day one. Chance is a lot of things. My name is pokerface.

Should be noted that I am by no means criticizing the scum's play. You are scum and you shot cops. How was that move wrong for scum? It never is. And I kinda encouraged you to do it by outing myself as not cop so you might kill paradox instead of me. I assumed echo would get paradox or you would do the kill at night but meh. I had all the scum "mostly" figured out so I did not care if I got a cop killed as town at that point.

[PokerFace]

I take risks and love chance and odds and math. cast a wide net and things can fall into place well enough if you are lucky

I don't know if there is a setting for you to be a pronoun choice on this site but maybe it should be

[PokerFace]

Real life has been slowing me down a bit. Meant to post what I gave on friday on thursday. At any rate here is some of the scenarios I am doing math on

Step one, let's pretend that this game was run as an open. Let's pretend everyone knew what mafia could do day 1. And let's assume no one goes kill crazy (Big assumption, but let's assume it). Is Town ideal play to :

A:

Have scumiest and second scumiest be involved in the killing with 1 as shooter and other as target each day (neither of those 2 should be someone that already shot)

B.

Have scumiest with low/no shot delay kill the scumiest with a higher shot delay each day

C.

Have the same person do the kill each day

For simplicity let us call the player making the kill the Executioner and the person being killed the Target. Now if the math shows B or C to be ideal town play it should be noted that scum can obv just kill the player(s) with the delay at night. That of course assumes that the executioner is not scum. Should the executioner be scum, refusing to make a kill and getting killed by town should eventually happen. And then there will be a new executioner who is town. After this we could expect things to run in a loop pending when scum kill the town executioner

[PokerFace]

Any scum that is pushed to the point they are Execution Target should claim cop. This will force the real cops to check the scum at night. If that scum is goon, the goon should do everything in their power to be online and able to kill the cop when they claim the guilty. Or they can just get shot. Not sure which of those is better at this time. If the GF claims cop then they should look town up until a real cop is killed and or another cop claim occurs.

Ok let's do A and assume worst case scenario.

Day 1

18 players. 2 cops that can't shoot and 4 scum that share a shot so we have 12 town that can shoot. Let's assume you find 2 town scummy. One town shoots the other. At night both cops inspect the player that gets night killed or inspect the GF or the other cop

Day 2

16 players. 2 cops that can't shoot and 4 scum that share a shot so we have 10 town that can shoot. 1 town with a day delay. Let's assume you find 2 town scummy. One town shoots the other. At night both cops inspect the player that gets night killed or inspect the GF or the other cop

Day 3

14 players. 2 cops that can't shoot and 4 scum that share a shot so we have 8 town that can shoot. 2 town with a day delay. Let's assume you find 2 town scummy. One town shoots the other. At night both cops inspect the player that gets night killed or inspect the GF or the other cop

Day 4

12 players. 2 cops that can't shoot and 4 scum that share a shot so we have 6 town that can shoot. 3 town with a day delay. Let's assume you find 2 town scummy. One town shoots the other. At night both cops inspect the player that gets night killed or inspect the GF or the other cop

Day 5

10 players. 2 cops that can't shoot and 4 scum that share a shot so we have 4 town that can shoot. 4 town with a day delay. Scum know who can shoot and who can't and who is what. A goon day kills one of the 4 town that can shoot. Scum kill another town that can shoot at night. Who cops check really don't matter now

Day 6

8 players. 2 cops that can't shoot and 4 scum that share a shot but its on delay so we have 2 town that can shoot. 2 town with a day delay. Scum know who can shoot and who can't and who is what. One of 4 scum being available to kill vs 2 town being available to kill. Scum got better odds of getting on line. One of them is online and gets the kill. They get the other town that can shoot at night. This game is sealed for the scum.

Will go over best case for A and see if there is a scenario where town can bring it back when in a bad scenario.

[Toogeloo]

Don't forget to include in your worst case scenario that a cop gets teeter on Day 1 within 0.001 seconds of thread opening, and that scum night kill the other cop that night.

/Grin

[PokerFace]

Honestly I think a cop living and not getting any value out of their inspects is worse than them dying in this game type since cops can't kill and their death prevents the death of someone that can kill on town side

Ok let's do A and assume best case scenario

Day 1

18 players. 2 cops that can't shoot and 4 scum that share a shot so we have 12 town that can shoot. Let's assume you find Goon and GF scummy. They refuse to kill each other. A town kills the GF. That town is killed at night. Both cops check the other goons at night

Day 2

16 players. 2 cops that can't shoot and 4 scum that share a shot so we have 10 town that can shoot. 1 town with a day delay. Cops claim their inspections. All the scum have been outed. Game is practically over but will still take a few days to kill them all. Assume the scum don't get online to make a kill and you get game over

Day 4

.

[PokerFace]

There really is no way scum can mount a come back from its worse case scenario. After all they can only kill 1 cop at night, if the one they let live checks goon found scummy day 1, then all goons have been checked and it truly is GG. But is there a time where town can mount a come back against the scum?

Day 1

18 players. 2 cops that can't shoot and 4 scum that share a shot so we have 12 town that can shoot. Let's assume you find 2 town scummy. One town shoots the other. At night both cops inspect the player that gets night killed or inspect the GF or the other cop

Day 2

16 players. 2 cops that can't shoot and 4 scum that share a shot so we have 10 town that can shoot. 1 town with a day delay. Let's assume you find 2 town scummy. One town shoots the other. At night both cops inspect the player that gets night killed or inspect the GF or the other cop

Day 3

14 players. 2 cops that can't shoot and 4 scum that share a shot so we have 8 town that can shoot. 2 town with a day delay. Let's assume you find 2 town scummy. One town shoots the other.

At night both cops inspect different goons.

Day 4

12 players. 2 cops that can't shoot and 4 scum that share a shot so we have 6 town that can shoot. 3 town with a day delay. Cops both claim their checks at the same time so both posts go through before one of those same goons shoots one of those cops and the other cop dies at night.

Day 5

10 players. 4 scum that share a shot on delay. 6 town that can shoot. 3 town with a day delay. One of the 3 without delay kills a goon that was inspected. Scum kills a townie that has no delay at night

Day 6

8 players. 3 scum that share a shot on delay. 5 town that can shoot. 4 town with a day delay. The townie without the delay kills the other goon that was inspected. Scum kills the most active town player with a delay

Day 7

6 players. 2 scum that share a shot on delay. 4 town that can shoot on delay. Pending what other evidence cops have given, the final goon may have been poe...Wait a sec, this is an open where everyone knows how the scum's shot delay works...that means the final GF and goon have not shot yet and have no way to explain why they are on a delay other than, hi I am scum. So a town on delay gets to the thread on time and kills one of them. Scum kills the most active town player with a delay

Day 8

4 players. 1 scum that share a shot on delay. 2 town that can shoot on 1 day delay. 1 town on a 2 day delay. Let's say the scum gets to the thread on time. He kills someone with 1 day delay during the day and gets the other one at night

Day 9

1 player is town and the other is scum and they both have a 2 day delay. Player that gets there on time wins!

Considering that second cop check might not even be needed since the remaining team gets outed by their delay later. Very possible Town does the math on who has and has not shot on delay a day sooner and all scum are outed already. Its also possible that...

Day 4

12 players. 2 cops that can't shoot and 4 scum that share a shot so we have 6 town that can shoot. 3 town with a day delay. 1 cop claims check on a goon and GF shoots that goon. One cop is shot at night. That GF was also announced to be innocent

Day 5

10 players. 3 scum that share a shot on delay. 6 town that can shoot. 3 town with a day delay. 1 cop that can't shoot. One of the 3 without delay kills an inspected goon if there is one. Scum kills the cop at night

Day 6

8 players. 2 scum that share a shot on delay. 6 town that can shoot. 4 town with a day delay. The 2 townies without a delay are in a 50/50. You got 3 players that have not shot. One of them has a delay and is scum but no one knows who that is. Each townie without delay knows themself to be town so its between 2 people who is last goon. 50/50. Let's say they make the right choice. Goon dead. The final townie without a delay is killed at night

Day 7

6 Players. All on a 1 day delay 1 of them is GF. If we assume GF lurks to avoid getting shot and only towns with lowest delay get killed at night We have town killing town and town dying at night so...

Day 8

4 players. 1 is town with 2 day delay, other 3 have 1 day delay. Again we have the 50/50. You got 3 players that same shot delay. One of them is scum but no one knows who that is. Each townie with that delay knows themself to be town so its between 2 people who the GF is. 50/50. Town won the last 50/50 so let's do the fair thing and assume they lose this one

Day 9

2 players. 1 is town with 2 day delay and the other is the GF with 1 day delay. GG for the scum assuming they get there before that town's delay ends

Unless town gets both 50/50's right, they will lose. Only getting 1 is not gonna cut it. So two 50/50's means 3/4 of the time, shit will go wrong for town here.

[PokerFace]

Did some math "off camera". I have bumped this thread long enough

I think things are even BUT I would change a few things.

-Don't mod kill someone that makes a fake kill or a kill when on delay.
This can hurt the town as it did here. Kills a townie that deserved punishment during day and kills a player at night that did not deserve punishment. And this punishment won't hurt scum as much since the day ending early can help scum as it will cut down on discussion and scum can still get a kill at night after the modkill. As long as you have a kill and its clear who your target is (Abbreviations and slight misspelling allowed), your kill should go through. If you do not have a kill or its on delay,

mod should just say NO or maybe extend that single player's delay or remove their chance to inspect for a night. That penalty to that player only would be more fair then effecting the entire town or mafia. Penalize a single player, not an entire team

-In a scenario where a win is inevitable as in scum have more players and or a shorter delay than town, game should just end.
This should have applied in our game here and in the scenario I outlined earlier where GF had 1 day delay and only remaining townie had 2 day delay.

[brassherald]

Are you seriously still telling people how we played poorly?

This game has been over for three weeks.

[PokerFace]

Are you seriously still telling people how we played poorly?

This game has been over for three weeks.

No i am not trying to do that. I was trying to determine if the game could be run fairly in an open format unlike the closed one we had