976: mystyry box of sylvyr I: isis game. day 3

[DoubtingThomas]

mastina SKYE akarin should read about the neighborhood and give opinion. yes you will be policy lynched if dunn flips town

[DoubtingThomas]

technically 10% chance is lower than the chance of being 2 scums in total of 9 player game, guys. wtf lol

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: mastina

[DoubtingThomas]

VOTE: mastina

you said TGP?

[DoubtingThomas]

dunn, so you are not town? it seems like that

[NicCage]

I think we ought to wait a little longer as well.

[Dunnstral]

even if you have a lower chance of being scum, you still have a 10% chance.

You shouldn't be going this hard for me on day 1

VOTE: mastina

you said TGP?

And mastina

[DoubtingThomas]

I think we ought to wait a little longer as well.

then unvote for a sec

[Dunnstral]

Nobody is above 2 votes right now

[NicCage]

I only brought up Mastina as scum IF AND ONLY IF Dunn flips scum. That’s the only scenario in which she could have known about the neighborhood (afaik). There’s no good reason to vote her today.

Fine UNVOTE:

[DoubtingThomas]

dunn should do more too, tbh

[Dunnstral]

Actually I don't townread plusjoyed

[DoubtingThomas]

FTR - I want other people to read and say what they think about dunn and nic and their neighborhood. I want to vote between TGP and dunn today I think

[DoubtingThomas]

gonna go to a corn maze

[Dunnstral]

dunn should do more too, tbh

What you want a song and dance too?

[NicCage]

Dunn is not going to do more. I started asking him questions about his activity/motivations 5 days ago and never got anything out of him.

My last question to him two days ago asked if he was the elimination and was town, was there anything he wanted me to know. No response. And yet here in public I'm a townread.

[DoubtingThomas]

dunn should do more too, tbh

What you want a song and dance too?

that's rude to the person who literally stopped a hammer on your face

[TheGoldenParadox]

I am not avoiding voting Dunnstral, and being neighbors does not make us masons. Watch: VOTE: Dunnstral DD-1

Dunnstral is lying about not noticing the setup, it is one of the very few things we talked about in the neighborhood.

Actually nic is in mason chat w dunnstral anyways so tjet both outted themselves yes

No we are neighbors. First off if we were masons we would be on the same side and he wouldn’t have outed me. Second masons don’t have a kill (as far as I am aware). So then there would be no scumteam. That’s possible, but how likely is that? Like Ari said earlier, we will very likely have more information in the future so there is no point in speculating like this.

I have niccage dunnstral gypyx tgp and akarin as the 5.

Can we kill nic today who outted that they r non town? Unless someone can specificaly point to nic being a very instruction following boi

.....
Thomas.
Reading is not scummy, town players need all the info they can get.
I am not the only person who read the setup.
If I am non-town, that means Dunnstral is non-town too.
Killing me first is dumb as hell, given the weight of information that could be gained on eliminating Dunn.

First off if we were masons we would be on the same side and he wouldn’t have outed me.

I claimed because I was put to L-1 with your help and needed to out the info to survive

I don’t believe you. That wouldn’t work anyway, even if you have a lower chance of being scum, you still have a 10% chance. My read on you takes precedence over a dice roll, everyone else’s should too. Claim your own role, not mine.

You’ve had every opportunity to enlist my help up until now.

ladies and gentlemen, observe nic's wonderful argument.
if his claim is correct, dunnstral has a 90% chance of being town. if he himself is town, then the probability of dunnstral being scum is 10%, whereas the probability of a random other person being scum is (0.9*0.286)+(0.1*0.143)=27.14%.

thus.

niccage believes that his read on dunnstral is approximately 3 times better than average. he is sacrificing a 27% chance to vote on a 10% chance.



now, imagine nic is scum, knows that dunnstral is scum as well, and wants to be on the dunn wagon for the towncred.

imagine nic is scum, knows that dunn is town, and wants to argue bUt mAh rEaDs to explain why he voted someone that was mod confirmed around 3 times less likely to be scum than any other random player.
not sure nic made these calculations himself, but it's so stunningly obvious that this is complete bullshit even from just a cursory glance at the numbers. can we please get nic today?

VOTE: niccage
VOTE: niccage
VOTE: niccage

pedit: that unvote is weird, but doesn't really change my view of the situation especially because it is implied the vote will go back on. nic is scum.

[DoubtingThomas]

sorry

niccage has mod confirmed info that you're 90% likely to be town and 10% to be scum

and he put you at l-1? what?

intent to hammer

you said the same shit as nic, bro

[TheGoldenParadox]

sorry

niccage has mod confirmed info that you're 90% likely to be town and 10% to be scum

and he put you at l-1? what?

intent to hammer

you said the same shit as nic, bro

said it because like a reasonable person i assumed that claim was bullshit because no way nic would vote someone who is three times less likely to be scum

apparently i was wrong and nic is just scum

[DoubtingThomas]

did you answer the question i asked where my posts gave you town ping despite you describing it as unproductive, bad, etc whatever

[TheGoldenParadox]

did you answer the question i asked where my posts gave you town ping despite you describing it as unproductive, bad, etc whatever

me?

[DoubtingThomas]

urd

[TheGoldenParadox]

urd?

[DoubtingThomas]

sky i missed who are your heads?
...
...
...

sus for not answering fast enough
VOTE: sky

Hey mastina!

Honestly, this post is just to claim the pagetop, but what part of Tris' post is so Alien to you? Why do you think it is scum?

Perhaps you'll be able to rrad me better at least

- Ari

this kinda pings my gut though I have trouble explaining why
ehhhh
VOTE: skye

really townreading plusjoyed from this opening

probably being scum or something

tris

i dont think the two posts that vote me are really scum reading me. do you? why?

"i'm scumreading you"

- tris

Not sure if it's real thought to... scum read me for you voting me before i even posted? How did you expect me to respond?

"Oh! You are voting me before I even posted? Why are you scum reading me?"

Doesn't make sense, right?

VOTE: skye

well, is that your response?

tris

like what kind of posts is this?

no it's actually my selfie

????????????

entire interaction pings me as insanely awkward but i think i'm feeling town vibes from DT and i'll sheep mastina on skye because i haven't played with ari in far too long

Who should I vote for?

don't like this at all

why is town!ari more likely to make that post than tris?

Because tris making that post is probably scum, but Ari making that post is far more likely to be a town-Aristophanes due to Aristophanes being Aristophanes.

You can't expect an action to universally always be scummy or always be townie with 100% accuracy and not take into account specific players. An action that might be generically in-general scummy can be a lock-scumtell for some players or a town indicator for other players even if in general it's scummy; an action that might generically in-general be townie can be a locktown level of town in some players...but also a dead giveaway that some players are actually scum.

25 is a post that, in general, generically speaking, I'd consider to be a scummy post to make.
From tris, I'd go one step further and say it's even a lockscum post.
But from Aristophanes, knowing him as a player, it's actually the opposite, a post that for him, indicates he's more likely to be town.

i think mastina is town here and her skye townread feels well thought out here

because gypyx didn't like the way i was signing my posts, i am now signing them with

mew

please don't

Uh it's not you, it's me.

Should I be voting for this DoubtingThomas character?

That's what they all say *sniffle*

And it depends on how much you like early Day 1 Dastardly Deed -1 (DD-1?)

DT is my top scumread right now, but...

---

It's 5 to Perform a Dastardly Deed

I think it’s currently at
DT (3): Akarin, Gypyx, Mastina
gypyx (2): DT, SKYE
SKYE (1): PlusJOYED
NicCage (1): Nona

Not Voting: (2): Dunn, NicCage

---

For future reference, Page 2 DT vs. SKYE peak wagons were:
DT (3): Akarin, SKYE, Gypyx
SKYE (3): PlusJOYED, Mastina, DT

1 scum in akarin/gypxy/mastina

and 1 in skye/plustjoyed/nona/dunn/niccage i think

dunn and niccage not voting at this point is an alright look

this separation, while i don't agree at all with it and i don't think trying to do that is productive or accurate, gives me town pings from DT

Ok so thomas is making an enormous fuss about me asking about me asking questions about someone's meta, which like, is not AI in any way

Like, sure thomas's case is wordy, but he repeats his points a lot, to compensate for the lack of content in it

He's even getting to the point of not understeanding the obvious formulation of my post, which has got to be the biggest tunnel i have ever seen of simply just deliberate

And also, to anyone who's interested i have already asked open questions about someone's meta before, and i am the kind of person to forget what questions i asked / accidentally make up others

gut town on gypyx here from this attack

Why should I?

So when I asked you why you asked the question earlier, what are you trying to do? Are you trying to sheep someone, or trying to question someone, or trying to get into the game, or what

I don’t know yet. If someone else gave you a good read, wouldn’t you follow it?

(I legit get strong scum-scum vibes from NicCage-Dunnstral's interactions.)

hard agree with this

@ PlusJOYED

What do you think of the DoubtingThomas/Gypyx/NicCage?

I agree there is most likely at least 1 scum in there. I'm not townreading any of them and they give off a bit of scum energy. Of the 3 I'd say gypx is probably a good place to go. Imo he's most likely red.

Wasn't a fan of NicCage entrance and focus on what scum do vs what town do.

Gypx has been doubtful of most posts; he's been critiquing more than he puts out which is bad sign.

Doubting seems overconfident but the rest of his stuff seems fine.

I think NicCage will be more likely to provide good insight if he's town than Gypyx being town. Lets go Gypx
VOTE: Gypyx

i think gypyx gives off that kind of vibe in general and i'd be inclined to believe that he's the most mislynch-baity out of the three
VOTE: niccage i think this is the best place to put my vote here, i'm also inclined to agree with plusjoyed that there is at least one scum in there and i feel like DT and gypyx are more likely to be town than nic

my reads here:
probtown: mastina, plusjoyed, gypyx
leantown: skye, dt
null: akarin
leanscum: dunnstral
probscum: niccage

you said post 95 i did