Mafiascum.net

shwinn is my strongest townread.

You're doing that thing where you fake unnatural confidence on a townread beyond what you could reasonably have.

Don't love generalwu's readslist as it felt very soft and the logic for his read on T3 isn't good but I actually strongly prefer a T3 vote to a Wu vote at this moment in time, think T3's posts have been incredibly scummy.

It's a combination of too many empty theory-based posts, deflecting with his defense to Val, and the bizarre, overconfident reads I don't believe are natural. 315 in particular is bad, the argument that Wu is "trying to pocket" is just repeating what STD said earlier, while his reads being based on who SRs him aren't even true - me, nav, and meg expressed scumreads on him, but he's not scumreading us in return, his attention was specifically focused on Roden/shwinn, and his read on Roden changed in response to an identifiable moment in the thread, not just Roden scumreading Wu. Could GeneralWu-scum be using that as a pretext to scumread Roden? Maybe, but to claim his reads are just based on how people are reading him like T3 does is an overt lie.

Who do I have to beg for some help here?

?(ﾉ)・´ω・(ヾ)

I have a theory about T3 that formulated when I went to bed last night, but idk if I want to pursue it.

I said earlier that I think Shwinn was either scum claiming or troll claiming. And if he's troll claiming, he's likely a PR. In this scenario, I have a feeling T3 is his buddy, due to the way both are acting and reacting, but also because of a gut feeling.

Which to me, means they're either scum buddies or Masons.

Like I said, I'm hesitant to pursue this. Either I'm making a huge hero solve or this ends in disaster because I'm outting both Masons. I think they both have had scummy behavior, but if they're doing it on purpose to avoid getting NK'd I'm gonna be so sad.

This is not a criticism directed at you in particular, as you're not the only one who has done it, but you should avoid openly speculating on who is/is not a power role in-thread. Doing so, in and of itself, is giving information away to the mafia, because you have effectively just outed yourself as vanilla town. I don't think it's a good idea, in general, to hold off a vote on someone who is being scummy because you think they might be a power role - doing so is basically giving someone a free pass for scummy play, and val has already pointed out T3 abuses this sort of thing by fake crumbing power roles as scum. If they are in fact a town power role, it's better to have the confirmation of a claim so you can then reset your reads and look elsewhere with new information in hand. Scum will often claim a power role under pressure, anyway, but outing it at least brings up the possibility of a counter claim.

Granted, I have mistakenly scumread PRs before, including masons, but I would never let a potential PR read stop me from pushing on someone in a game if I scumread them. (I would try to defend a PR read if I thought they were town regardless, but I wouldn't speculate on it inthread).

I also would assume shwinn would not out a read of "now seeming increasingly evil" on T3 in 172 were they actually teamed as masons.

This rids me of basically any doubt that you're town this game, though, so that's nice. （=´∇｀=）


(that came out way longer than I expected it to)

In post 325, T3 wrote:shwinn is my strongest townread.

Even stronger than a page 2 locktown? That's some going. If it wasn't coming from the scummiest acting slot in the game so far, and by a long margin, I would have to pay some attention to such a strong read as that.

In post 323, shwinnebego wrote:Either way, who do you think is evil besides T3?

You.

Think T3/shwinn is almost never a thing either but don't have time to go into it right now + would only be relevant if one flips red.

In post 332, catboi wrote:Think T3/shwinn is almost never a thing either but don't have time to go into it right now + would only be relevant if one flips red.

This is not how I play around my partners as scum.

In post 331, Val89 wrote:

In post 325, T3 wrote:shwinn is my strongest townread.

Even stronger than a page 2 locktown? That's some going. If it wasn't coming from the scummiest acting slot in the game so far, and by a long margin, I would have to pay some attention to such a strong read as that.

In post 323, shwinnebego wrote:Either way, who do you think is evil besides T3?

You.

Honestly I just forgot nav existed in the moment.

Aftet some consideration, I think it's time to change my vote.
Val's links have been very helpful and I've seen quite a few convincing arguments. On top of that, hos overall playstyle has been inconsistent and he doesn't seem to be doing much to benefit town, so I'm afraid I'm going to have to turn my vote on you T3.

VOTE: T3

I had a longer post written out, but after re-reading it I realized it wasn't really that helpful and could end up being anti-town. I'll just cut it short and say that I only openly speculated about PRs because the alternative would likely make my intentions look off. If I pushed either of them without clarifying why I really was doing so, or why I was also hesitant to do so, my intentions would rightfully be questioned. I wouldn't blame anyone for scum reading me in that scenario.

In addition, I don't think Shwinn scum reading T3 means much since neither are truly pushing for the other to be an elim, so it reads more like distancing to me.

In post 336, Roden wrote:I don't think Shwinn scum reading T3 means much since neither are truly pushing for the other to be an elim, so it reads more like distancing to me.

Odd that.

Looking at the reads list at 282 Shwim is suggesting his lim pool for today as {navigator, T3, Meg}; that they will be 'high-info' based on interactions with others. Out of the 3, T3 is "reasonably likely to actually flip evil too". I would have thought that, if you have a set of 3 slots you think would make good lims based on associative reads, but that you think one of the three has high scum-equity as well, they would be the obvious choice particularly since there is already a wagon forming around them.

It's possible he is understating how much he thinks nav is going to flip scum, and he has Nav as a higher SR than T3 but it can't have escaped his attention that nav has picked up a 'locktown' from T3, a strong confident townread from me, StD has sad he feels 'very solvy', and catboi and Wu has placed navigator as town. The only other person to come out with a SR on nav is Meg. I think he should know that if he expects a navigator wagon to have a reasonable chance of taking off, he is going to have to provide something stronger than 'he has been a bit waffly' in support of it.

When I pointed that out, his reaction wasn't to give further evidence in support, but to ask me who I thought was evil, and it came clear he meant 'other than t3', which reads to me as "I'm not planning on getting on the T3 wagon, despite saying it's both high-info and likely to flip scum, so who might I have a chance of convincing you as being the D1 lim, Val?"

Another note: T3 is now a E-2. I have a feeling T3 may well self-hammer at E-1, so while I think we should be pushing this towards a T3 lim now, if you casting the E-1 vote make sure you've said everything you want to say today in case the day ends shortly after.

In post 336, Roden wrote:I had a longer post written out, but after re-reading it I realized it wasn't really that helpful and could end up being anti-town. I'll just cut it short and say that I only openly speculated about PRs because the alternative would likely make my intentions look off. If I pushed either of them without clarifying why I really was doing so, or why I was also hesitant to do so, my intentions would rightfully be questioned. I wouldn't blame anyone for scum reading me in that scenario.

Sometimes you just have to be vague or ambiguous about your thinking if part of your read involves a PR guess. Of course, ultimately I'm glad you explained it here because it let me dispute it and gave me a better read on you, where if you'd been more vague I might not have picked up on this. But to provide an example, in my past game where I did realize two players acting in obvious coordination were masons (because they teamed up to quickhammer scum), I came up with explanations to townread them that didn't involve outright saying "they're obviously masons".It managed to work, because although we missed on day 2, the mafia NKed a VT instead of a mason. o(^・x・^)o

In addition, I don't think Shwinn scum reading T3 means much since neither are truly pushing for the other to be an elim, so it reads more like distancing to me.

Would agree with that assessment, but T3 strongly asserting that shwinn is town looks like a TMI read to me.

Or... maybe I'm literally masons with shwinn.

Or... maybe you are doing exactly as expected and are now trying to draw a CC now you realise you are going down. This is precisely why the fake crumbing was so anti-town in the first place. You were fakecrumbing FN, not mason, remember?

It was obviously a joke fakecrumb because I did the friend in all caps.

And now you want us to buy that your mason buddy scumread you and suggested you were a good flip and likley to turn scum just as you were actually starting to get some serious heat from other slots too; and thereby forcing you both to out?

The very next person who needs to weigh in on this next is exactly Shwinn.

I agree with Val that shwinn should weigh in next, just posting because I haven't in a while and would like people to know I am still following the game and don't have much I want to say at the time.

VOTE: I will be V/LA from the 25th until 8/1

I should be able to check in and post but no guarantees.

He's a moron.

In post 347, T3 wrote:He's a moron.

Who?

In post 348, navigatorv wrote:

In post 347, T3 wrote:He's a moron.

Who?

My mason partner, shwinn.
Anyways, if I'm scum with him we're in an autoloss scenario and I'm not stupid enough to do that.