Barring any mechanical reasons to vote otherwise, it’s always smartest to vote your strongest sr. I still don’t understand how we benefitted from Brigitte flip yet. How are we closer to figuring out this game, then we were before? You still haven’t really explained that?
Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 12:18 pm
by Xtoxm
nim has never treated me like this in any of her town games and that slot is very likely scum imo
Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 12:19 pm
by Ankamius
no
Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 12:19 pm
by Ankamius
that was @nim
but I'm not going to fill the thread with my opinions and philosophy because nobody cares
Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 12:23 pm
by Nimueh
In post 3252, Xtoxm wrote:nim has never treated me like this in any of her town games and that slot is very likely scum imo
In what game have we both been in, where you have sr almost the entire playerlist, with very little/bad reasons?
but I'm not going to fill the thread with my opinions and philosophy because nobody cares
I think you’re very wrong about that. A big part of the reason you’re getting so much resistance is that few people are understanding this and you’re not explaining it, hasn’t helped any. You’ve been basically asking people to just trust your pushes - particularily the ones to give information but I don’t understand why you won’t explain what information we derived from the Brigitte lynch. Don’t you honestly think doing that will make people that much more inclined to sheep your reads? I do but if I can’t understand what info we ascertained from Brigitte flip, it makes it really difficult to put whatever your preferred wagon is over my strongest sr. If you for whatever reasons view doing this as being unhelpful to town otoh, than of course that’s very different.
In post 2601, Ankamius wrote:If Flubber flips scum like I expect, then I believe I have a complete solve.
Xtoxm + Nimueh would be my choices for his partners.
If one is wrong, skitter30 is a likely substitute if I'm reading the tris wagon correctly (which is somewhat stretched, which is why I'm not confident in this slot being scum).
The one thing I'm suspicious of with this solve is how long the flubber/Xtoxm slots are towards the end of the nmsa wagon for so long, but it's explainable by urap2s read shift and Flubber pushing Urap2 immediately afterwards, I could see this as an attempt at damage control to distance.
In post 2604, Ankamius wrote:Also of note is that the original NMSA wagon is the only time that all three of them aren't voting different people or unvoted entirely
Based on how scattered all the votes were in general even when there was a concentrated push on 1-2 slots, and considering they all never voted together even at the end of the day 1 wagons, that's indicative to me that there's something here
I believe tris is town and the wagon was mostly town lead (barring skitter, I think the unvote was a mistake if she was scum here)
Succinct wouldn't be scum with this
Neither would Chara
Nor xRECKONERx
Elbirn is probtown
It's a gamestate read, his alignment holds a pretty big key to solving it I think. His actions indicate a scum agenda that I suspect is in play this game and him flipping scum would go a long way towards proving that.
Plus if he ends up flipping town instead, then that's a big sign I need to rethink again.
It's a gamestate read, his alignment holds a pretty big key to solving it I think. His actions indicate a scum agenda that I suspect is in play this game and him flipping scum would go a long way towards proving that.
Plus if he ends up flipping town instead, then that's a big sign I need to rethink again.
It's a high information high scum equity lynch
What is that scum agenda?
1. I suspect scum have been mostly following town pushes overall rather than pushing their own, this explains all the disproportionately large amount of small wagons that keep popping up all over the place
2. Wagons tend to stall out and the majority of wagons slowly slip into nothingness when they are no longer in the spotlight, this indicates 'lazy' play where there isn't a wholly dominant force controlling the wagons and when/where they are placed
3. The amount of wagons that keep popping up is large enough in amount that show scum are most likely staying on separate wagons
Flubbernugget isn't making any particular pushes on his own that he intends to go anywhere.
Flubbernugget is mostly following lynches.
Considering my scumread on Nimueh, the two of them were never on the same wagon throughout day one. Nimueh doesn't as much follow the other conditions, but Nimueh was also absent for more than half of day one, so that isn't indicative.
That's two down.
Flubbernuggets only 'push' is on the Xtoxm slot, and a cursory look shows that Urap2 isn't making any particular push that goes anywhere, the only time he votes with Flubber or Nimueh is on the original NMSA wagon, and I have to remember that Urap2 made a pretty dramatic shift in reads to account for him suddenly leaving the wagon.
And now here's the kicker:
Nimueh knew that I had a good record of reading her.
I was scumreading Flubbernugget.
I was scumreading urap2
Urap2 suddenly switches his reads to match mine nearly word for word.
That looks a lot less town from this particular light.
In post 2636, Ankamius wrote:Skitter30 somewhat matches this trend, I think if she was scum she reversed off of tris because she knew she would get heat for that wagon.
Plus there's just some bizarre stuff about her that I've been noting all game that just doesn't quite add up.
It doesn't fit as perfectly as the above three, but it's still notable.
NMSA, again, is pick #5 predominantly because it makes sense for scum to want to double push him down if he got that much heat early on to get free towncred and to reduce the odds of NMSA getting them caught. Plus it makes more sense for Urap2 and Flubber to make the actions they did after the wagon started falling apart if they wanted to recover from that failed gambit.
In post 2640, Ankamius wrote:Does xtoxm give you more info or do you think he's scummier
It's a case of I feel like I should be trying to sort the entire playerlist this game and sorting you directly is less useful towards that end than sorting other players and fitting you somewhere into where that takes me
That's essentially why I was able to build a solve after only sorting two players as scum
this is going to take a lot less effort to push through and I don't want to put enough effort in to push Flubber to a lynch today despite feeling like it's objectively the best play, since I don't think it's healthy for the gamestate to risk flaring myself up
so I'll just sit in the backseat and just look to shield mislynches if things go off track
In post 2810, Ankamius wrote:I want Flubber mainly because I think Xtoxm obvscummed and I want to flip my other scumread so I have another day phase to make sure my theories are sound or at least that I'm not missing anything huge
I've duly noted that there's a lot of support for both Flubber and Xtoxm but everyone has their own idea for the third, that's going to be my main focus I think since I expect I have a max of 2 scum pegged if past experience is to be trusted
In post 2813, Ankamius wrote:I'd rather not go down that rabbit hole until I have the second flip to work off of
it's frustrating to do a bunch of analysis based on having flips I don't have and then getting those flips only for it to be what I wasn't expecting it to
In post 2818, Ankamius wrote:the reason I was townreading urap2 so strongly is scummy from this newer perspective, creature
Skitter has been sorting
Chara has been sorting
Nimueh has been sorting
Reck has been sorting
Creature I will trust the townreads of
Succinct has been sorting
tris has been sorting
NMSA is just... there
Elbirn had a sketchy return to the thread
Flubber has had really wooden contributions that make no sense
Xtoxm is just... wild flailing
In post 2964, Ankamius wrote:I honestly think there's good odds that the game is just solved already
These wagons have been stalled long enough that it is very unlikely for the slots that have consistently been around and hunting to be scum (otherwise one would have won out I bet, specifically keeping up this charade to no practical effect is ridiculous scum strategy)
Of the three slots that were wagoned, two have showed signs of caving under the pressure, while the third (tris) never has once
Just another aspect of the gamestate that supports scum being in the mostly lurker slots
Whenever I feel like I have a confident solve in a game and enough scum properly pegged to be able to push town into a win, I'm always much more afraid of getting NKed and town being thrown off track without me there than of getting my scumreads lynched
I don't want to get these lynches because I forced people to sheep me with no other choice
I want town to be set up to be able to get them without me there at all
And having someone who can hold a lot of influence over the rest of the town fall prey to a paranoic mindset as a solve is being put into effect is one of the single worst scenarios I can think of
I want to avoid that scenario much more than I want either of these lynches
In post 2981, Ankamius wrote:And if I don't deliver a scum today then I'm probably just going to mostly sheep tbh, because if I'm that far off then my reads are never going to improve
idk how we can reconcile our playstyle differences because I hold the opinion that the information is 5x more valuable than the scumflip
so I'm not sure explaining more is worth bothering with
In post 3028, Ankamius wrote:one thing I will say though is that I'm not actually trying to find the entire team, right now
I'm trying to find the method that will allow me to deduce the entire team (or at least narrow it down enough that I can focus entirely on getting town on the same page) in the most efficient way
and currently that way is by flipping flubbernugget
this is the best approach I can take with this game, I can't do the casing judge-by-actions thing because I literally cannot think that way and the years I spent trying was when I was horrible at this, so
the problem with it is that I've had to take extra liberties with it so I had to gamble all my credibility on having a good lead on the first try, so if it fails then I'm effectively sunk and it's not worth trying to build a second one, this playerlist won't trust me with that a second time and I don't have the tools available to convince you all the way you would need to be convinced otherwise
In post 3036, Xtoxm wrote:ank has already positioned to go after me if flub flips town and people are saying they wont reconsider anything on a townflip
so what is the fucking point
You would be correct if I hadn't pointed out quite a few times that I was putting all my credibility on the like with the Flubber lynch and that I would rethink everything upon him flipping town, which by the way close to nobody has acknowledged other than the other slot you are also scumreading, skitter.
But yes keep lying to suit your needs and avoid doing any real work on making your scumreads accountable or really anything to try to move the game forward, Xtoxm. It reads a lot more like you're trying to damage control a shitty situation to throw a fucking tantrum and OMGUS all the slots pushing you the hardest rather than try to town the fuck up and try to convince us to look elsewhere.
And saying I'm tunneled isn't an excuse, Elbirn has already done it and it took remarkably little effort from him to do so. Your response to this pressure
is
not
town.
In post 3053, Ankamius wrote:Flubber has had very lackluster posting, has posted literally nothing the last few days (ftr this points to Flubber being the scum of the two if these wagons are TvS), has generically responded with discrediting-style statements towards the suspicion on him, and really hasn't been making any counterpushes or trying to dismantle the wagon on him at all.
That's not necessarily scum by itself, but the way the gamestate is evolving around him makes aggressive uselessness a strong strategy in this situation.
My position here is shaky. There's a lot of support of these two wagons individually but there's little overall cohesion and the rest of the players that really haven't already hopped on are very unlikely to.
Why would Flubber need to do anything when the wagon on him is already stalled? All he needs to do is not say anything too scummy and he's already set to be released from being today's lynch. The support against the wagons is not going to get higher than it already is without a huge centralized push as it is until it gets too close to deadline. Plus my influence is actually waning over time, and there is the very real threat that if it gets low enough, the wagons will dissipate if for no better reason because I'm trying to lead them.
In post 3054, Ankamius wrote:I'm not entirely sure who the third is here, my best guess is they're somebody trying to subtly shift away from this dichotomy, but I can't point to a specific person atm
In post 3055, Ankamius wrote:Plus I can see scum adopting this low morale type of strategy in a game where there's obvtowns popping up and there's no nightkill to deal with them.
That's actually a big reason why I'm really suspicious of the Xtoxm slot, his predecessor put in a lot of raw effort at the start of the game and I can see someone who was in a good spot get really discouraged at how town were starting to get their shit together, only one of them was looking town enough to escape the town's wrath for a while, and the other two were not getting... well, anywhere really.
Xtoxm having no presence the entire game.
Flubber feeling really wooden and pushing like he doesn't really care.
I could see a few other slots fitting this general trend, too. Tris and Elbirn are the closest fits that I can see right now, maybe NMSA too.
Actually now that I think about it, it makes sense from a flubber+xtoxm+NMSA team
In post 3123, Ankamius wrote:my credibility is shot no matter what happens so me trying to lead at any point is effectively useless
my only option left is to make the plays that create the highest possible odds of town getting their shit together
and currently that's just getting a lynch through
Here you go nim
Here's the majority of my solving and theory posts today
In post 3182, Ankamius wrote:put in Chara and take out skitter and you have my list I think
I'm townreading skitter mostly because of her edge.
ngl now that I've stepped back for a while and watched her do her own thing the last couple days, she feels like a lot of what she's saying has an agenda behind it
like she's trying to subtly sabotage my efforts without outright fighting it due to how I've been reacting to it
I'm not sure why you dont make this criticism of me instead
Nim probably should be lynched the day before lylo if they're still alive by that point
Why? Don’t make me start to doubt my tr on you at this point.
because I don't feel you're obvtown enough to lock it down and I don't trust that you're readable enough to the majority of people here for any of those reads to be trusted
The way she reacts to being scumread just makes me want to not do so. I hope scum-nim doesnt react like that? Have you played with her as scum?
In post 3232, skitter30 wrote:i think i prefer tris/nmsa/xtoxm in that order but i don't love *any* of these idk
"Hey man can I copy your homework?"
"Yeah sure just change it a little so it isnt obvious"
