Let's do some reads. I'm excited. Because reading back the last 10 pages or so and doing my catch up post, I think we can narrow down the lynch pool enough to make hitting scum today very likely.
Using the player list in the OP for this in order to keep track of all the replacements.
Ankamius replaced Lycanfire *
- I played with Ankamius in Merchant's Daughter where she played very different from how she's playing here. That's why I initially had an averse reaction to her posting because I hadn't seen her do this style of rapid-fire posting and questioning before. Based on how I perceived her in Merchant's Daughter, she seemed more analytical and reserved. I peeked at some of her other games and realized this game is closer to her standard than my previous experience was, and is probably closer to town-indicative.
The discussion between Ank and Enter on 105 isn't faked, which means they cannot be S/S. Reading it closer, it's probably T/T. The only situation where it makes sense for scum to opt into this back and forth is if Ank is trying to pocket EE here. It's a possibility if only because of how widely town read EE is. However, it's not a progression that was forced by Ank, and I don't think you start off a pocket by null-reading somebody. This interaction specifically couldn't really have been orchestrated and that makes me think it's more likely town from Ank than scum. The mini-town jam session with Enter a couple pages later is more points for Ank town as well. In fact, I like a lot of her posts since then, reading back.
I scum read her on entrance because her questioning seemed empty and she wasn't reaching any conclusions, but I think that was a product of having to catch up. She's been following through on her lines of questioning and forming reads/conclusions from those in ways that I don't think are easily faked by scum.
Liger_Zero replaced Gamma Emerald **
- Gamma has like 3 posts before replacing out or something? I remember absolutely nothing alignment indicative from her and flaking out certainly isn't. Liger is snarky as fuck and I almost want to town read him just for that, but a few specific posts of his town pinged me.
In post 3094, Liger_Zero wrote:Starting to get disinterested in this. We gonna get everyone on a wagon or something?
Towwwn. A variety of wagons is good for scum imo. Especially if they are on largely town players, which I think they are right now. I don't think scum is very likely to draw attention with a post like this, it's so blatant.
In post 3234, Liger_Zero wrote: In post 3029, MaxwellPuckett wrote:Like why am I here all scum Maxie shopping for reads when theres an entire thread of opinions i could grab for convenience
idk i feel like im pretty obvious trying to interact w people and talk abt their reads and your conclusions arent making any sense
@Liger
Because your opinions do look like they are being shopped so far? Not seeing much in terms of original thinking but I haven't been really reading your posts as of late so theres that.
Also mind melding with him on Max. I picked at Max's weird progression on me in my catch up post, but there's a lot of ??? stuff from him.
He also shuts down other wagons or at least closes them off to himself, and is pretty tunneled on Vedith. I think scum is more likely to try and leave their options open given the game state.
- Snarky again but less obv town imo. His #3114 really town pings me though because it's transparent, and outlines a townie thought process for switching wagons when scum would have no reason to do so. With me being MIA from the thread, there's no real incentive for scum to not just sit on me until I at least return and respond so the switch here is unnecessary. Bonus points for reconsidering reads. Alisae replacing out because of apathy also matches er behavior from Merchant's Dance, and I believe Jingle said e tends to go hard as scum. That's only very minor town points though.
- I think obviously town and I'm not going to waste time talking about this too much unless people start disagreeing. Natural progressions, good thoughts and analysis.
In post 2984, Reiuji Utsuho wrote:Somebody do me a math and tell me how many mislynches we have right now, assuming that we are one horrible horrible towngroup and keeps mislynching every day starting now while magically managing to not lynch any of the doused people.
Kinda think this is a town slip too.
- I think this is another mostly consensus town read now, so won't case it. He is
A. tonally very town
B. much more genuine and thorough in his analysis here than he is in his scum game
MaxwellPuckett replaced Clemency *
- Already commented on a post that was pretty yuck.
I also just flat out do not understand this while in the very same post calling DDL lynch bait. Really reads like an opinion that's only there because people started thinking I was scum in the recent pages before that post.
To quote Max, a poem:
"Conclusions feel kinda
Feels kinda like not making waves??
Should put more time into this but yeah"
I think this is scum.
Jingle replaced Frozen Angel
- This is town. I want to detail this explicitly, but it might have to be tomorrow because I don't think enough of my brain cells are awake right now for that. I do think I can make a good town case for Jingle though. He just has done a lot of things that don't really make sense for scum to do.
In post 3111, Jingle wrote:VOTE: Xtox
ngl, I still like my other wagon and I will totes hammer there if you build it, but apparently I missed a bunch of PR posts and I can grok it.
This is one off the top of my head. I don't think there's any reason to switch to xtoxm randomly here when he was already gaining support for wagons that he'd look a lot less suspicious on. There's a lot of other reasons too but will come tomorrow.
- Town.
- The dumb tell/slip whatever is not alignment indicative but all his other posts heavily town spew him. He's been trying to push the game in a positive direction even if his individual play hasn't been the best. The worst part about this slot is Maxwell's associations, but I'd wait until an actual flip there to sink here.
- Vedith is a consistently hard read for me due to his play style. I really don't think his WKing of Shoshin clears him. His play yesterday basically just consisted of saying "don't lynch Shoshin" and sheeping her, in fact he's still just sheeping her today. I don't see that as outside of his scum range and I think scum defends doomed mislynches all the time. Otherwise, I don't like his associatives with grapes nor how he reacted to me and Prince pressuring him before Shoshin flipped. I feel like he's pretty apathetic and I feel like that could come from scum!Vedith only if his partner was someone useless like Clemency.
@Vedith, how do you feel about voting Maxwell?
Prince of Renais replaced PvtUrist
- I feel like I shouldn't have to explain this. I don't think scum!Prince is ever this paranoid about getting mislynched because of leading bad wagons. The case against him is "he's a really good scum player." If that were the case, he would not have lead a wagon on his partner Day 1. I don't think that's a good plan when Prince is somewhat likely to get mislynched by a paranoid or otherwise bad town. Scum!Prince would keep his team alive, drive mislynches, and probably die before endgame but get his team into a good spot imo. That would, at least, be the mastermind scum plan, which is what people who are suspicious of him seem to be scared of.
- Literally the only thing I've seen this car do is call xtoxm out for doing nothing while doing nothing himself. I've brought this up before but I hate his posts on page 55 where he votes Rei (joke or not) and completely ignores the 6 vote grapes wagon. I realize he's been sick, but he's added nothing of substance except for a quick meta on xtoxm, despite lack of content being the driving force behind his tunnel on xtoxm.
In post 2865, mcqueen wrote: In post 2763, Dannflor wrote:
referring to your pop in and updated reads
is xtoxm your top scum read?
I was waiting for Booneytoonz extravaganza to finish before I truly call out xtoxm.
He’s scum here like he was in that game.
VOTE: xtoxm
Karmeleon what do you think?
In post 2871, mcqueen wrote:
Xtoxm is a master of pretending to do shit while doing nothing. Its a playstyle that should always be pressured, regardless of alignment, especially when he actually hasn’t done much as of late.
Don't like the claim that xtoxm is scum and then reframing it as his playstyle needing to be pressured regardless of alignment. Looks like a weak attempt to look like he's casing someone/doing something.
- My experience with scum!xtoxm is him completely flaking out of the game and he hasn't done that yet so bonus points to him. His reads are bad here but he is actually efforting. I find it hard to read this slot because of the AtE with Prince.
In post 3248, Xtoxm wrote: In post 3028, MaxwellPuckett wrote: In post 2887, Xtoxm wrote:i fooled him in LNT and his suspicion of me here just kinda feels genuine
i think both scum are in
liger, rei, dann, jingle, ddl, prince
Idk Im townreading rei and prince and kinda dolittle too
Couldnt scum mcqueen rly easily cite meta on you to push you
Its kindve an unexpected read to me since you just said his meta was bad
town apply meta badly very often tho, it doesnt make him scum
it makes sense for him to be initially sus imo
if he just sits on the tunnel, does nothing else and never reconsiders then perhaps he is scum
This town pings me though.
Don't feel super big vibes either way with xtoxm. Max flip might incriminate him.
Karmeleon's catch up around the time I left is obv town. There's no reason for scum to go to such lengths anyway because Karmeleon was getting away just fine with being town read and not doing much at all. From a scum position, that burst of activity could be saved for a much later stage of the game.